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Messages - miac952

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1
Definitely a factor, and in recent years the committee has looked beyond just "X beat Y and Z beat Y" in order to rank teams. So if X beats Y by a field goal and Z beats Y by 24 points, that would be something they could consider. But if X beats Y by 14 and Z beats Y by 10, 17, 21, that's usually not considered significantly different.

Thanks Pat!

2
Can't look past Concordia (or St. Olaf for that matter). Going to Moorhead is one that screams "trap game" to me.  I'd hate to go there with our heads in the clouds and have the Cobbers keep it close by making the most of their possessions and controlling the ball for 40-plus minutes. (See SJU v. Concordia-Moorhead, 2012, 2014).

Wonder if someone could help clarify. Are common opponents considered as a factor in how teams are seeded in the tournament? If so.....

The Concordia game could have other implications too. Whitewater likely will win out. At the end of the year UWW and SJU will have two common opponents; Stout and Concordia. The differential in those results may determine the final #1 seed in the tournament. Mount, MHB, and Brockport are likely shoe-in's for the other 1's, given they will run the table and have last years playoff results to lean on. Being a 1 seed is advantageous to avoiding a team like John Carroll or St Thomas in round 2.

3
Admittedly, I was rather giddy so my powers of observation may have been off, but I didn't see UST switch their defensive game plan during the entire game.  They stayed with the blitz extravaganza, often safety blitzes, and tried to make that work the whole game.  I can't recall them trying to keep more men in coverage.  It seemed like the Johnnie receivers were continually in 1-on-1.  Granted, the Jays were splitting five wide about 60 percent of the time but it still seemed like the Tommies were rushing with at least six every down.

It shifted a bit to some different personnel and two safeties over the top mid-way through the 3rd; after the Gilich post route TD I think. UST didn't give up another offensive TD after that and looked a little better, but its hard to say if that had anything to do with it. 81 dropped a TD against that coverage on what might have been Erdmann's best throw of the day while under pressure.

4
3. Threw to the outside and picked apart man coverage...o-line gave Jackson enough time!
Does St. Olaf,Gustavus or Bethel have the athletes to duplicate this type of game plan vs UST? I would venture to say Gustavus has the QB and receivers but not sure of the O-line play. Bethel with Marsh at QB if he plays like he did against SJU could put a scare into the Toms. Time will tell how it shakes out.

This may come off as a harsh answer, but I would say a declarative NO. Jackson Erdmann played like only a handful of D3 quarterbacks I have ever seen. Comparable to Aaron Boehme (Linfield) and Alex Tanney (Monmouth followed by NFL). He put balls in the smallest windows where only his receiver could get them. He threw well to all different levels. He moved around in the pocket just enough to manage pressure. And he had an hard internal clock in his head on when to fire; never more than 1-2 seconds in the pocket. His only flaw may have been staring down receivers, which led to the handful of batted balls. But that was largely because his primary route on the pre-snap read was almost always available.

It may sound like hyperbole, but based on that performance, he would start for a large number of Division 1 schools. There may be 1 or 2 other DIII schools out there that come even come close to that level. I thought the O-Line and receiver played into Saturday's success, but it really rested on the shoulders of one individual. Heckendorf designed the plan and Erdmann executed it. Both deserve all the credit in the world. If I knew James Franklin I would call him today and tell him the kid that left his program is a perfect heir apparent to McSorley and he should call him and beg him to come back next year. Caruso should also find out what Heckendorf is getting payed, and offer to double it. ;D

It reminded me a bit of when UST went down to play Monmouth in that first year in the playoffs against Tanney. The difference that time was UST had a gameplan for it because they knew what they were walking into. The offense also didn't screw the pooch with 5 turnovers in that game. I would be really curious to see how UST would adjust next time around, if there is a next time. Put two safeties over the top, jam the inside routes and force Erdmann to make the sideline throws. They may give up 3-4 yards on a run now and then, but that would have to be the counter. He may still make the throws, but at least you force them to tougher spots on the field and keep it in front of you a bit, until a penalty, a sack, or a mistake is made. The offense can stay with a similar gameplan. They garnered 610 yards. They might want to eliminate the unforced errors though.

Minus the fumble near the goal line I would say Josh Parks was also a pretty clear high level Division 1 talent too. The speed was always there, but he now appears to be a lot stronger and better between the tackles. SJU needs to find a mediocre running back. The SJU line play is decent. But, the RB just barrels right into their backsides without seeing cutback lanes or holes develop. It's a glaring weakness on an otherwise high level offense. The kicking game was a mess for SJU as well.

5
Big props to the Johnnies. Masterful offensive gameplan. If someone told me before the game USTís offense hits 620 yards and Parks runs for over 250, I would have said sign me up. The Johnnie D made plays when it needed to though.

Jackson Erdmann looked like a high level D1 Qb today. Dropping balls in small windows all over the field. And he missed out on a TD with the TE drop in the end zone too. Scary.

Caruso has some very nice words for Faschcinng and in Johnís memory postgame.

Very cool pre-game note: With it being tackle cancer fundraising day via Randy Shaverís efforts, the Rat Pack from SJU came over and presented flowers to Rachael Caruso, in respect for her current Colon cancer fight she is in. A sentimental moment and wonderful gesture in a great rivalry!

Iíve a got a pic of that that a friend shared..very decent move by the rats 🐀!

Quite a few tears shed pre-kickoff. The Rats are good dudes. Restores my faith in college kids and the next generation!

6
Big props to the Johnnies. Masterful offensive gameplan. If someone told me before the game USTís offense hits 620 yards and Parks runs for over 250, I would have said sign me up. The Johnnie D made plays when it needed to though.

Jackson Erdmann looked like a high level D1 Qb today. Dropping balls in small windows all over the field. And he missed out on a TD with the TE drop in the end zone too. Scary.

Caruso has some very nice words for Faschcinng and in Johnís memory postgame.

Very cool pre-game note: With it being tackle cancer fundraising day via Randy Shaverís efforts, the Rat Pack from SJU came over and presented flowers to Rachael Caruso, in respect for her current Colon cancer fight she is in. A sentimental moment and wonderful gesture in a great rivalry!

7
St Thomas made the national media this morning! Was listening to Rush in the car & he was going off on an engineering professor at St Thomas who wrote an article that appeared in the Guardian essentially blaming people who voted for Republicans for the devastation that hurricane Michael caused. Not even Rush is a fan of the Tommies! He called them obscure & the professor idiotic among other things. LOL!

I am ok with UST and Rush not being BFF's. I'll leave it at that.

8
Strength of Schedule rankings have been released. 4 of St John's 5 wins have come against teams rated higher on the list. (#6 Gustavus, #10 Augsburg, #16 Bethel, & #25 UW-Stout). St John's made the list at #29 & after scrolling down for quite aways, St Thomas finally appeared at #170.

Auggie #10, Gustavus #6 you say? I would like to audit whatever the source info is?

http://d3football.com/seasons/2018/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

There are MANY flaws in the NCAA SOS methodology, that have been discussed often on D3. While I know this is a factor of consideration for the selection committee, I would leverage Massey or Hansen as a much better metric. And, just because any team is ranked high in that metric, does not mean they are an actual strong opponent. If you look where Mount and MHB are, that would validate it. 

952: It isn't meant to be an RPI, sir. It's meant to measure only the strength of the schedule. It's well-named in that regard.

It may be aptly named, but it has its flaws. OOWP, in largely closed off conferences where only 0-2 games are taking place outside the conference, frequently will end up close to .500. So OWP then becomes the differential. Any metric that gives someone a high score for playing Martin Luther (see Gustavus), but a low score for playing a middling WIAC team is flawed.

9
I'm gonna wager under 14K tomorrow (which is still an incredible # of people).

I'll take the over on that. This has turned into a spectacle the last 5 - 10 years. As long as it's 40 degrees plus and neither team has stunk it up going into the game I think we are in for consistent big crowds now. It's turned into a second homecoming and reunion of sorts for a lot of people. My guess is around 16k - 17k.

10
Strength of Schedule rankings have been released. 4 of St John's 5 wins have come against teams rated higher on the list. (#6 Gustavus, #10 Augsburg, #16 Bethel, & #25 UW-Stout). St John's made the list at #29 & after scrolling down for quite aways, St Thomas finally appeared at #170.

Auggie #10, Gustavus #6 you say? I would like to audit whatever the source info is?

http://d3football.com/seasons/2018/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

There are MANY flaws in the NCAA SOS methodology, that have been discussed often on D3. While I know this is a factor of consideration for the selection committee, I would leverage Massey or Hansen as a much better metric. And, just because any team is ranked high in that metric, does not mean they are an actual strong opponent. If you look where Mount and MHB are, that would validate it. 

Regardless, SJU's schedule this year is as impressive as they have had in many years. A non-conference slate with a solid, middle of the pack WIAC school and what should be a really strong independent in Thomas More, plus UST and Bethel.

11
There have been a lot of great John stories shared this week in social media, print/web, radio, podcast, etc, etc. Former Johnnies QB Joe Boyle has shared some really good ones on his Twitter and this so far has been my favorite.

It's from a thread about the 2008 MIAC Championship game vs Carleton. This exchange from John happened right before the game winning drive with around 1 minute to play.



That's good stuff. John Gagliardi was Steve Kerr, before Steve Kerr. Establishing true trust and confidence in his leaders.

12
Strength of Schedule rankings have been released. 4 of St John's 5 wins have come against teams rated higher on the list. (#6 Gustavus, #10 Augsburg, #16 Bethel, & #25 UW-Stout). St John's made the list at #29 & after scrolling down for quite aways, St Thomas finally appeared at #170.

Auggie #10, Gustavus #6 you say? I would like to audit whatever the source info is?

13
Maybe basketball-did you forget SJU won the MIAC or do you have a selective memory?

And they followed that by losing in the 1st round to the DIII equivalent of a 16 seed UMBC. As John football fans try to remind us, only the Walnut & Bronze matters. 2 - 0 good guys.

I would say, the Johns always have Golf, but UST has stolen that the last couple years as well.

14
The University of St. Thomas. Where humility goes to die.

Auggie Tech....where the ďstarĒ LB throws more bricks in a riot than he has tackles in a game.

http://www.citypages.com/news/michael-juberian-star-augsburg-linebacker-faces-felony-charge-for-dinkytown-riot-6543333

15
It's been reported that John said regarding touchdown celebrations to act like you'd been there before (in the endzone). Advice that the Tommies could take to heart considering the success they've had has only been recent.

Another piece of advice that would serve them well is credited to their university's namesake, St Thomas. "There is no virtue without humility."

Nothing says humble like embedding a #1 in your logo!

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