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Messages - izzy stradlin

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31
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 07, 2018, 09:56:39 pm »
Really impressive win by Wheaton tonight in Bloomington. With wins @IWU, @Augie and @Whitworth along with a home win vs Baldwin Wallace, I am not sure any other team in the country has those quality of wins

Nice to win in Bloomington in hoops to maybe take just a little sting off the rare Titan win at McCully a few months ago.

32
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 20, 2018, 05:07:40 pm »
I once walked 8 hours hours in the snow with no coat with below zero windchill to watch Raymond play.   Top that.

33
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 19, 2018, 07:12:56 pm »
To clarify, I never intended to suggest that Brady Rose had the start to his career that Kent Raymond had. Rose has been a work in progress, whereas Raymond was a superstar right out of the gates.

But as far as where Rose is right now, I think he is as good as Raymond was as an upperclassmen.  And my praise for Kent Raymond is well documented on this board so I understand what I am saying.  I am also throwing the name Korey Coon in there, and that's quite a name to throw around in IWU/CCIW circles.

I respect anyone who disagrees, but I feel very good about my position on this.

Half of the game of basketball and a players value comes on the defensive end. How would you compare Raymond and Rose defensively? 

I think Rose is All-American caliber offensively and probably could have had more touches/better numbers earlier in his career if it weren't for a little reverse nepotism (I mean this as a compliment to his dad who on all accounts seems to be that good of a guy to try not to favor his son, subconsciously maybe). 

I think on defense Kent Raymond was an elite on-the-ball defender.  That's half of a players contribution to winning.

34
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 18, 2018, 09:26:31 pm »
Trivial fact:  Wheaton is dominating the country in the 3 pt stats category.  But in a fairly peculiar happenstance, Aston Francis leads the nation in 3FG attempts (204 ), 3FG made ( 75 ) and 3FG/game ( 4.69 ) while Ricky Samuelson leads in 3FG % ( 59.7% ).

I think the more Francis mixes in lane penetration, the more efficient Wheaton's offense will be.  He can make amazingly difficult 25 footers, but he is really an excellent passer when he draws a second defender and has a back-court mate that is hitting at almost 60% from three.  If a guard is shooting 60% on 3 point FG my initial reaction is he isn't shooting enough.

35
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 16, 2018, 03:12:45 pm »

I agree this is probably the typical logic of the current top 25 voter.   The reasoning is so full of biases (selection, recall, confirmation, anchoring) though, it shows why the recent top 25 polls have gotten to be pretty bad. For example the reference to the rankings of Washu, UW Oshkosh etc, introduces bias. 

I would look at overall W/L% and some single metric to estimate strength of schedule using all games played.

While Gordon thinks it is a fair point, I'll point out that the Top 25 usually stands up pretty well every season.

I will also add about your last point: Iknow a lot of voters who use all kinds of metrics along with other things like eye test and what-not. They don't just slap things on a wall or throw darts (as I have joked in the past).

You may consider there are biases, but that is also why there are three voters from each region in the poll. Of course, you have bias as well.

That's not the kind of bias I'm talking about.

36
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 16, 2018, 03:03:57 pm »
Quote
Outside of preseason expectations, what would be the explanation for such a gap with these 2017-18 resumes?

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Augustana/men/2017-18/index

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Illinois_Wesleyan/men/2017-18/index

I don't understand why the teams are so far apart from each other either, but to try to answer your question...

- The most obvious data point is IWU pounding Augustana in Shirk. My guess is that voters are chalking that up to an anomaly and want to see what happens when they play in Rock Island.
- Let's consider the teams' losses to Carthage and Wheaton as a wash. Both were close home losses to quality conference opponents.
- Augustana's other loss is double-overtime to No. 6 Oshkosh at their place. Augie also has a win over No. 3 Wash U by a comfortable margin in their gym and a win over current WIAC leader Stevens Point.
- IWU's non-conference record includes a loss to No. 17 Emory and a non-competitive loss to No. 3 Wash U. I'm not sure what the Titans' best non-conference win is.

I think most pollsters would slot IWU after Emory (given the head-to-head result) and Emory isn't going to be terribly high because of its non-conference losses. Add in the Augustana's win and very competitive loss to teams in the Top 10 and the fact that IWU doesn't have anything similar on their schedule. The most obvious data point here is IWU bombing Augustana, but that's a conference game on the Titans' court so some people will discount that or at least wait for the rematch.

If I voted in the Top 25 for men, I'd probably want IWU higher but below Emory (assuming they are on my ballot). Based on watching the Vikings this year, I still think Augustana is one of the best 10 teams in the country, so I don't want to drop them farther than they are. And I end up with a spread pretty close to what we have here without referring to last season.

I agree this is probably the typical logic of the current top 25 voter.   The reasoning is so full of biases (selection, recall, confirmation, anchoring) though, it shows why the recent top 25 polls have gotten to be pretty bad. For example the reference to the rankings of Washu, UW Oshkosh etc, introduces bias. 

I would look at overall W/L% and some single metric to estimate strength of schedule using all games played. 

37
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 15, 2018, 10:14:32 pm »
The new poll...

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/men/2017-18/week7

I wonder when preseason poll voting will stop impacting the current polls?   I get it in football.  Not hoops.   

38
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 13, 2018, 10:48:25 pm »
I don't understand the Wheaton coach taking out Spencer Peterson.  They controlled the inside when he was in and got out rebounded big time for the time he was out in the second half.  Either the coach was mad at him or didn't resize what he was doing.  He should never shoot from the three and isn't an offensive threat but he was essential in all the time Wheaton lead.  Wheaton had no chance do to the inside match-ups when they took him out.

Why play Jay Spencer all those minutes when he wasn't getting rebounds and constantly fouling?  Jay could be a much better player if he ever learned to put his weight on the balls of his feet and bend from the knees more.  He doesn't have control of were he is moving.  In the off season he needs to play some touch or flag football at the linebacker position while getting coached by a lb coach for body position.

In the Iím-sorry-I-have-to-say-it-but since-you-brought-it-up department:  Someone explain to me why Spencer Peterson, now shooting a whopping 15.3%, thatís 4 for 26 folks, continues to shoot 3 pointers( 0 for 2 tonight)?  I donít know why the coaching staff doesnít simply forbid him from shooting anything over 15 ft for the rest of the season, if not for the team then for the sake of the fans?

What Jay Spencer really needs is another 20 lbs of muscle minimum - 30 would be better.  At 180 lbs, technique can't make up for that much less bulk.

I agree. No more 3's for Spencer Peterson.  He should have been on the floor way more down the stretch, though, when NCC took control of the game.  He was Wheaton's best defender again Sorenson who had several easy baskets in the last 6-7 minutes of the game with Peterson out.  It made no sense to have him on the bench.

Francis had an amazing 3/4 of the game.  He played 38 minutes though and I don't think it's a complete coincidence that his crazy arsenal of jumpers didn't fall towards the end of the game.

39
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: January 12, 2018, 01:12:36 am »
It seems unusual that the box score would indicate the T was on the TEAM while Live Stats would list it as being on the BENCH, although Greg's explanation sheds some light on how the terminology is normally used and how/why his may have occurred.
If the T was indeed on the BENCH, it would be interesting to learn what Coach Jesse said or did. 😏

I'm not a live stats operator, but, as far as I've been able to tell over the years, some live stats operators use the terms interchangeably. I don't know this for sure, but my guess is that the TEAM technical input was originally designed to assign administrative technicals and the BENCH technical input was originally designed to assign Class A or Class B technicals assessed to someone affiliated with the team who was in the bench area. Class A and Class B T's have the potential for disciplinary consequences, while administrative technicals do not, so they ought to be differentiated by both the official scorer and the live stats operator.

http://www.ourquadcities.com/sports/augustana-mens-basketball-falls-to-wheaton-at-home/909808568

At the end of the above video, Grey admits to the technical.  He says it was his first in 15 years??

40
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: December 22, 2017, 12:00:12 am »
Final from Newberg:

Wheaton 86
George Fox 81

Eichelberger the high scorer with 28 on 11-16 shooting. Samuelson with 23 on 9-12 shooting. Aston Francis with a "quiet" 16 while also dishing out 6 assists in a game plagued by foul trouble.

Wheaton escapes this trap game, not without drama as George Fox took a late 70-69 lead as part of a run which saw their full court press uncharacteristically rattle Luke Peters and forced many turnovers from the Thunder as they were sped up. Big time contribution from Tyrel Derrick who played more minutes in this one than he had the entire season previously. Made many hustle plays and filled the gaps when Francis was on the bench with the fouls. Overall impressed with our guys as they made it out of their "big win hangover" with another solid W going into the short break for Christmas.

I missed the game.  Francis only played 21 minutes because of foul trouble yet finished with only 3 fouls?

41
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: December 07, 2017, 09:18:35 pm »
  I think he might be the best offensive player I've seen at Wheaton.  He's an excellent passer aside for his ability to score.

I agree, although I'd still take Kent Raymond over him. Raymond gave you everything that he had, at both ends of the floor, every time that he suited up. I'm pretty sure that the only concern Bill Harris ever had about him was whether or not God was going to pull rank on Bill again and take Bill's best player away.

No question.  As an all-around player I'd take Kent Raymond any day.

42
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: December 07, 2017, 01:42:31 am »
Wheaton head coach Mike Schauer really called out Aston Francis publicly in the post-game show for lack of effort/intensity on the defensive end.

This is nothing new. Mike made it a point to mention Francis's poor defense in at least a couple of post-game interviews that I watched last year, and he did so again after the Chicago game the other night.

Francis is the eighth wonder of the world on offense, but he continues to be a liability at the other end of the floor -- and his coach is going to keep publicly calling him out for it until he puts some effort into his D.

I've heard Schauer say this before but was still a little surprised that it was the topic he went straight to in his post-game after this particular game.  IWU had around 20 offensive rebounds.  The 3 to win the game came on an extra possession from an offensive rebound.  That seemed like the difference to me.  IWU shot just 43% from the field.  It wasn't like they were getting a bunch of uncontested layups.  Other the the rebounding disparity both teams played well overall.

I don't think anybody can deny the fact that Francis showing up on campus as a transfer has led to Schauer keeping his job.  I think he might be the best offensive player I've seen at Wheaton.  He's an excellent passer aside for his ability to score.  Without him these last two years Wheaton is probably still near the very bottom of the CCIW. It's true that he can probably play better on-the-ball defense but that was certainly not my first takeaway after watching that game.   

43
General football / Re: Pool C - 2017
« on: November 09, 2017, 10:45:59 am »
Dave, this isn't a "conspiracy theory." People have biases. It's impossible to rid ourselves of them.

Lake Forest being ranked in the regional top 10 is an historic outlier. I believe the fact that their HC is the co-chair of the committee is partially responsible for their ranking. I do not believe anyone on the committee is acting in any way unethical or outside the bounds of their directive.

If you believe committee members "leave their bias at the door," you and I have a fundamental disagreement about the human condition.

Exactly.  I donít think Dave understands how bias works is data collection and analysis. It is not something you ďcheckĒ or consciously remove.

44
I am not a top 25 voter.  We don't want that piece of misinformation floating around.   :)

Alright.   I do regret bringing this up.   Honestly didn't think the Wheaton ranking was that off. 

45
No, by placing less value on the result of that game because it was under unusual circumstances, you are assuming that the second half would have been more like the first if it hadn't.     

It's not an assumption of anything.  It's more of an incomplete grade than anything else.  You keep saying that the voters are assuming one thing but that's not the case- and in doing so aren't you making the assumption that a second half on Saturday night would have gone the same way it did on Monday?  It's hard to process a game that is so severely bifurcated. 

I am starting to guess you are a voter.  If so I am sorry and I shouldn't have bothered. They are absolutely making an assumption if they treat the game any different than what the score shows at face value. You really can't argue that statement. Someone else could just as easily say "I think Wheaton was going to go on a bigger run without the delay and therefore they should move up more"--an equally incorrect line of thinking.  As soon as you don't take the score for face value, you allow in for a flood of biases which by definition lead to more error.   

I am not assuming the game would be exactly like what happened--All I know that is that I have no idea what would've happened. Neither does anyone else.  To say less of a blowout, more of a blowout, more likely a NCC win or anything other that what happened is making an assumption in one direction or another.     

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