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Messages - Titan Q

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31
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 15, 2017, 06:33:54 am »
Illinois Wesleyan (16-6, 8-5) at Wheaton (11-11, 7-6), 7:00pm...

Illinois Wesleyan (16-6, 8-5)
G - Brady Rose, 6-3 Jr.   15.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.5 apg
G - Colin Bonnett, 6-4 So.  10.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.0 apg
G - Andy Stempel, 6-4 Sr.   11.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.9 apg
F - Alec Bausch, 6-6 Sr.   9.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.1 apg
F - Trevor Seibring, 6-8 Sr.   12.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg

G - Nick Coleman, 6-1 So.  8.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.4 apg

Wheaton (11-11, 7-6)
G - Luke Peters, 6-3 So.   9.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.4 apg
G - Aston Francis, 6-1 So.   23.7 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.2 apg
G - Ricky Samuelson, 6-3 Jr.   12.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.5 apg
F - Kobe Eichelberger, 6-5 So.   7.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg
F - Trevor Gunter, 6-6 So.   5.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg

F - Jay Spencer, 6-8 Fr.   5.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg



Pantagraph - http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/basketball/men/iwu-heads-to-wheaton-in-tight-cciw/article_a27be8b6-2b5c-58d6-ab3f-7c9e35af5ea3.html

WJBC Radio - https://portal.stretchinternet.com/wjbc/

Video - https://livestream.com/WheatonThunder

Live stats - http://www.sidearmstats.com/wheaton/mbball/

Massey - #22-Illinois Wesleyan 75 #99-Wheaton 72  http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cb2017&sub=11620

32
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 12, 2017, 10:45:13 pm »

I was looking at it today and I suspect if Trinity were to beat Williams in the NESCAC final, we'd end up with 6 teams from one conference.

I'm pretty sure the national committee would not let that happen.

33
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 12, 2017, 07:49:54 pm »
Per some tweets, IWU received a recruiting commitment from Charlie Bair today.  Bair is a 6-6 PF from Glenbard South.

https://twitter.com/dhrecruits/status/830878206924378114

https://twitter.com/dhrecruits/status/830880774115188739

https://twitter.com/scottybscout/status/830904564304007168

I don't know anything about Bair but I've heard from a few people unaffiliated w/ IWU today that he has a really nice upside as a CCIW low post player...strong, physical, high motor post...nice touch around the basket and strong rebounder.

Bair is a great student and his final two included U. of Chicago.


34
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 12, 2017, 06:20:53 pm »
Wash U is down 9 at halftime, at home, to Rochester - http://bearsports-livestats.wustl.edu/basketball/xlive.htm.  A comeback win would clinch the UAA for the Bears.  A loss and things get a bit dicey for Wash U vs Rochester in terms of Pool A.

Just have to beat NYU, Brandeis and Chicago.  Loss to the former and Washington probably goes Pool C. Loss to Chicago and Pool A comes down to coin toss.

Thinking more about it, the Wash U/Rochester thing is not that big a deal in terms of CCIW Pool C.  Just a matter of flipping Pool A/Pool C lock position.  If Wash U is a Pool C candidate the Bears will get picked in that top 6 group (where I currently I have Rochester).

35
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 12, 2017, 05:55:28 pm »
You can switch Tufts from pool C to pool A.  Middlebury is not the NESCAC pool A. Tufts has the # 1 seed going into their tournament.

Done.

36
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 12, 2017, 05:16:31 pm »
For fun I put together a Pool C list through games of Saturday, Feb. 11.  A few notes...

* All data is from KnightSlappy's (Matt Snyder) tremendous work - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

 * I did this quickly and did not do any checking of which teams are currently Pool A candidates vs C...I just used Matt's designations.  Please let me know if I am missing teams that are currently Pool C candidates, or including teams that should be in Pool A right now. 

* I ignored Matthew's RPI and ranked the teams in my typical "subjective" fashion, balancing the 3 data points as best as possible.

Top Pool C candidates through 2/11 play
1. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC), .870/.610/8-2
2. UW-Whitewater (CE/WIAC), .857/.585/7-2
3. Amherst (NE/NESCAC), .739/.596/6-4
4. Rochester (E/UAA), .905/.522/2-1
5. Whitworth (W/NWC), .870/.535/1-2
6. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC), .792/.560/5-3
7. Salisbury (MA/CAC), .826/.537/3-3

Safely in through 2/11 play
8. UW-Eau Claire (CE/WIAC), .727/.557/3-1
9. John Carroll (GL/OAC), .727/.572/2-5
10. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW), .727/.557/3-4
11. St. Thomas (W/MIAA), .773/.533/2-1
12. Hardin-Simmons (S/ASC), .727/.554/2-1
13. Scranton (MA/LAND), .739/.526/3-2

The Bubble through 2/11 play
14. Williams (NE/NESCAC), .696/.580/5-4
15. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC), .818/.514/2-0
16. MIT (NE/NEWMAC), .783/.535/0-3

Bottom 5 spots always reserved for major upsets, sending presumed Pool As to Cs above (these 5 teams assumed out)
17. Mass-Dartmouth (NE/LEC), .696/.561/4-2
18. Catholic (MA/LAND), .696/.557/2-5
19. Brockport (E/SUNYAC), .783/.512/3-2
20. Carthage (CE/CCIW), .667/.569/3-4
21. Wooster (GL/NCAC), .696/.544/3-5


Just a quick exercise to get some context on where things are right now.  Note, teams can and will move up and down this list (and in and out) in the final weeks of the season.  This is just a snapshot as of today.

37
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 12, 2017, 05:16:16 pm »
For fun I put together a Pool C list through games of Saturday, Feb. 11.  A few notes...

* All data is from KnightSlappy's (Matt Snyder) tremendous work - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

 * I did this quickly and did not do any checking of which teams are currently Pool A candidates vs C...I just used Matt's designations.  Please let me know if I am missing teams that are currently Pool C candidates, or including teams that should be in Pool A right now. 

* I ignored Matthew's RPI and ranked the teams in my typical "subjective" fashion, balancing the 3 data points as best as possible.

Top Pool C candidates through 2/11 play
1. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC), .870/.610/8-2
2. UW-Whitewater (CE/WIAC), .857/.585/7-2
3. Amherst (NE/NESCAC), .739/.596/6-4
4. Rochester (E/UAA), .905/.522/2-1
5. Whitworth (W/NWC), .870/.535/1-2
6. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC), .792/.560/5-3
7. Salisbury (MA/CAC), .826/.537/3-3

Safely in through 2/11 play
8. UW-Eau Claire (CE/WIAC), .727/.557/3-1
9. John Carroll (GL/OAC), .727/.572/2-5
10. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW), .727/.557/3-4
11. St. Thomas (W/MIAA), .773/.533/2-1
12. Hardin-Simmons (S/ASC), .727/.554/2-1
13. Scranton (MA/LAND), .739/.526/3-2

The Bubble through 2/11 play
14. Williams (NE/NESCAC), .696/.580/5-4
15. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC), .818/.514/2-0
16. MIT (NE/NEWMAC), .783/.535/0-3

Bottom 5 spots always reserved for major upsets, sending presumed Pool As to Cs above (these 5 teams assumed out)
17. Mass-Dartmouth (NE/LEC), .696/.561/4-2
18. Catholic (MA/LAND), .696/.557/2-5
19. Brockport (E/SUNYAC), .783/.512/3-2
20. Carthage (CE/CCIW), .667/.569/3-4
21. Wooster (GL/NCAC), .696/.544/3-5


Just a quick exercise to get some context on where things are right now.  Note, teams can and will move up and down this list (and in and out) in the final weeks of the season.  This is just a snapshot as of today.

38
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 12, 2017, 12:46:40 pm »
CCIW Pool C hopefuls also need Wash U to win the UAA's Pool A bid (and not be lined up ahead of the CCIW teams in the Central Region Pool C line).

Wash U is down 9 at halftime, at home, to Rochester - http://bearsports-livestats.wustl.edu/basketball/xlive.htm.  A comeback win would clinch the UAA for the Bears.  A loss and things get a bit dicey for Wash U vs Rochester in terms of Pool A.

39
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 12, 2017, 12:33:10 pm »
I think both Carthage and North Park have to win out and make the CCIW Tournament Championship game, even then that's a maximum win% of .703 at 19-8 for North Park, .692 at 18-8 for Carthage.

Very much on the low end of the bubble, yes?

Agree.

40
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 12, 2017, 12:19:08 pm »
Rats! Beat me by a couple of minutes, Tom!

Here it is for those of you who'd rather see it spelled out here:

CENTRAL               
Rank  School  In-Region Record  Overall Record
1  UW-River Falls      17-2      19-2
2  Washington (MO)      17-3      17-3
3  UW-Whitewater      17-3      18-3
4  Augustana      17-4      17-4
5  UW-Eau Claire      14-6      15-6
6  Benedictine      18-3      18-4
7  North Park      15-5      15-5
8  Illinois Wesleyan      14-6      14-6

Here is KnightSlappy's new regional rankings simulation, using WP, SOS, and RRO data - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.

Using his black and white RPI formula, he has the CCIW this way:
  1. Illinois Wesleyan (.727/.557/3-4)
  2. Carthage (.667/.569/3-4)
  3. Augustana (.783/.522/1-2)
  4. North Park (.682/.527/3-0)
 
As I look at all 3 data points and subjectively try to order these 4 - including considering the week one Central Region rankings - I'd go:
  1. Augustana (.783/.522/1-2) 
  2. Illinois Wesleyan (.727/.557/3-4)
  3. Carthage (.667/.569/3-4)
  4. North Park (.682/.527/3-0)
 

Now seeing the data...

* I'd concur with what I said earlier -- IWU is currently in the best Pool C shape but has to finish strong (at Wheaton, vs NCC, vs Augustana) to stay there.

* Augustana, our presumed Pool A right now, is not a Pool C lock by any stretch.  If the Vikings have a rough finish (at North Park, at IWU) they will end up on the bubble should they not win the CCIW tourney.

* I think Carthage is in a little better shape than I thought - if the Red Men win out (vs NCC, at Millikin, vs Wheaton), I believe they can make an end-of-the-bubble case around SOS and RRO.

* I think North Park is in trouble with a low WP and not enough SOS to offset that.  The 3-0 vs RRO is obviously great but I don't think enough.  It's safe to say NPU absolutely has to win out (at Carroll, vs Augustana, vs Millikin) to get to the bubble.

41
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 12, 2017, 11:43:53 am »
If everything breaks wrong, one-bid league this year is a significant possibility. Most likely it will be 2 max, especially if Augie loses in CCIW tourney. Too much parity = too many losses = all on the bubble.

Agree.  Odds are 2 bids (one Pool A, one Pool C)...but it's not crazy to think the CCIW gets shutout of Pool C if things go the wrong way in the final week and a half.

I'll put more numbers to this later, but it's probable that the CCIW only has two realistic Pool C candidates right now - Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan.  Augie and IWU can both either help or hurt their Pool C position in the final week and a half.  Any negatives to the resume could be enough to put either of these teams down at the end of the bubble.

I think Carthage and North Park are both out of Pool C consideration most likely.  If I'm wrong, they are at the end of the bubble at best right now - meaning they absolutely cannot afford another loss in order to stay on the bubble.

Assuming Augustana is the Pool A, IWU is by far the CCIW's strongest candidate for Pool C as things stand right now.  I believe if IWU goes 3-0 the rest of the way the Titans are a lock regardless of what happens in the conference tournament semifinal game...I believe 2-1 still puts IWU in pretty good position (albeit on the bubble and a nervous selection day)...2 losses or more would mean no chance.  Right now IWU has 3 very significant non-conference wins - Loras, Ohio Wesleyan, Wash U.  All are regionally ranked at the moment...and the Titans really need all 3 to stay in the rankings. Had IWU beaten Middlebury (lost in final seconds) the Titans would be just about a lock right now.


42
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 11, 2017, 10:51:22 pm »
When was the last time the CCIW didn't have a team ranked in the Top 25? Has that ever happened before?

It's never happened in Massey but I'm sure it has happened in the D3hoops.com poll.

43
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 11, 2017, 10:43:02 pm »
It seems we're gearing up for a potentially chaotic end of season.  We could plausibly end with a four way tie for first at 11-5 if Augustana can't win at least one of its tough away games (at North Park and IWU).  If Carthage, IWU and North Park all win their other games, as predicted by Massey, that's what we'll have.  How would the first seed and home court for the tournament be decided in case of such a log jam?

I think North Park wins that hypothetical scenario.  The first tie-breaker would be wins vs the other teams in the tie and that would go:
 * North Park 4
 * IWU 3
 * Carthage 3
 * Augustana 2

So in that crazy scenario, I guess that would be the conference tournament seedings.

44
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 11, 2017, 10:33:55 pm »
IWU 90
Carthage 78

http://www.iwusports.com/boxscore.aspx?id=4081&path=mbball

* Brady Rose: 25 pts, 2 reb, 2 assists
* Andy Stempel: 17 pts, 7 reb, 8 assists
* Colin Bonnett: 15 pts, 3 reb, 5 assists
* Trevor Seibring: 14 pts, 2 reb
* Alec Bausch: 11 pts, 5 reb, 2 assists

* Mike Stevenson: 27 pts, 3 reb
* Kienan Baltimore: 17 pts, 3 assists
* Drew Joiner: 11 pts, 7 reb, 2 assists
* Brad Perry: 9 pts, 12 reb



IWU: 55% FG, 86% FT

Considering the venue (road game), the quality of the opponent, and the stakes, I think this was probably IWU's most impressive performance of the season.  IWU's offense was really clicking tonight behind starting perimeter players Brady Rose, Andy Stempel, and Colin Bonnett.  These three all made multiple big plays throughout the game.

Back to the grind Wednesday at Wheaton - another key road game for the Titans.

45
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 11, 2017, 06:57:17 pm »
Final from Waukesha:

Carroll 75
Augustana 70


That makes the title race and conference tournament picture really interesting. 

Augie (11-3) still has road games left at North Park and at IWU.  All the sudden Carthage (8-4) and North Park (8-4) right back in the championship mix.

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