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Messages - Titan Q

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31
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 26, 2017, 02:20:26 pm »
I really don't think there is politics here.  IWU's fate was sealed with the last rankings, they just refused to be acknowledged on these boards.

Why would the last rankings be a make or break in terms of the final rankings, Scott?  The rankings are a very fluid thing, week to week.  Why couldn't IWU have been unranked in Week 3 and then pop back in Week 4 (final) after the data changed?

32
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 26, 2017, 01:31:40 pm »
I would like to see IWU get into the tournament.  I have no animus toward the program.  Quite the contrary.  The Titans are in a unique situation between the criteria and the sentiment that it shouldn't get in the NCAA Tourney because it was out of the running for a spot in the CCIW Tourney.  It will be very interesting how the endgame unfolds.

It sounds like the sentiment won out with the Central Region committee.

33
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 26, 2017, 12:21:11 pm »
If I have that Central order right, it will be interesting to see if .630 UW-Oshkosh is considered.  I don't think we've ever seen anything under .667 selected but who knows.  Their SOS and RRO numbers are certainly outstanding.

34
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 26, 2017, 12:08:45 pm »
My revised projection which has IWU out due to some rumblings I'm hearing about final Central Region rankings.  I'm hearing the Pool C order is UW-Whitewater, Augustana, UW-Eau Claire, UW-Oshkosh, Carthage.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1793761#msg1793761

35
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 26, 2017, 12:02:34 pm »
Some updates to my projection...

(All data courtesy of Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Tier 1- Projected In/No Drama
1. Babson (NE/NEWMAC): .926/.574/4-1
2. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .731/.592/7-4   
3. Susquehanna (MA/LAND): .800/.556/4-4
4. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .769/.567/3-5
5. Rochester (E/UAA): .840/.534/4-2
6. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.598/5-5
7. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .769/.566/4-4
8. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.560/4-3
9. Whitworth (W/NWC): .852/.544/0-3
10. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .741/.546/3-4

Tier 2- Projected In
11. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .750/.533/5-4
12. Hope (GL/MIAA): .800/.525/2-1
13. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.531/2-3
14. Emory (S/UAA): .720/.547/2-3
15. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.527/6-1
16. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .769/.526/3-5

Tier 3- Right Side of the Bubble/Last 5 In
17. Augustana (C/CCIW): .704/.542/2-2
18. Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/3-4
19. UW-Oshkosh: (C/WIAC): .630/.601/5-6
20. Illinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.556/6-2
21. LeTourneau (S/ASC): .800/.506/2-2

Tier 4 - Wrong Side of the Bubble/Left at the Table
UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-4
Emory & Henry (S/ODAC): .731/.528/2-3   
Endicott (NE/CCC): .786/.532/1-1
Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .769/.510/2-1   
St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.530/1-2
Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .731/.522/2-3
Catholic (MA/LAND): .654/.557/3-7
Rowan (AT/NJAC): .630/.5643-6

Tier 5/Never at the table
Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .750/.514/2-4
John Carroll: (GL/OAC): .680/.562/2-5
Carthage (C/CCIW): .680/.553/2-2
Virginia Wesleyan (S/ODAC): .679/..533/1-7
Loras (W/IIAC): .692/.548/1-1
St. Norbert (C/MWC): .792/.504/1-2

36
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 26, 2017, 10:03:53 am »
I would like to add that I am a big believer in subliminal psychology, and I would bet that comes into play during the NCAA Tournament selection process...at each level, not just D3.

Committee members can cite chapter and verse about their selections being based solely on the narrowly-defined set of criteria, but they are human.  How many times have we seen the post-mortem on the D-1 selection shows, when NCAA selection committee officials mention that a team's strong or weak finish had a bearing on whether or not that team got into the tournament?  Is that part of the D-1 selection criteria?  I don't know the answer to that question, but it seems to have somewhat of an impact on why or why didn't a bubble team get a ticket to the dance.

The lengthy set of primary and secondary criteria in the D3 process does a very good job of keeping subjective subliminal views from running roughshod over the selection process.  But I think we are kidding ourselves if we firmly believe that the criteria keeps ALL subliminal views from trying to affect choices...especially in situations where a team like IWU doesn't make its conference tournament, yet still has criteria on its side as the selection committee goes to work.

If I have read correctly, the regional ranking committees first start the selection process by crafting one last set of rankings, then presents the results to the selection committee.  The criteria should still provide the sole fulcrum for the selection committee's choices, but in unique situations like IWU's, it will be interesting to see how it fares in the process...and whether subjective views are able to filter into that process.

As I posted on the CCIW board in response to AndOne...
---
At least consider the other side too.  How should IWU coaches and players feel if the Central Region committee brings in factors that are not part of the established and communicated criteria in making the final ranking? The way the process works is extremely clear to everyone - http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2017DIIIMBB_PreChamp_DIII_M_Basketball_20161024.pdf - which is probably the best thing about the way things work nowadays.  It eliminates bias and favoritism like the old days -- and let's be clear, there is bias in play in some of these conversations surrounding why IWU should not be considered (for reasons outside the criteria).

The criteria is the criteria and the numbers are the numbers.
---

37
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 26, 2017, 10:01:05 am »
First of all, 70 please don't act like I am the only one who thinks it's ludicrous that there is any possibility whatsoever that a non qualifier for their conference tournament could be selected for the national tournament. Several other posters have expressed the exact same thoughts.
Tonight I even talked with members of two staffs outside the CCIW who feel it's insane that the possibility would even be considered. So it's certainly not just me or even just not staffs and/or fans of other CCIW teams. Nearly everyone is united in their thinking on the subject.

At least consider the other side too.  How should IWU coaches and players feel if the Central Region committee brings in factors that are not part of the established and communicated criteria in making the final ranking? The way the process works is extremely clear to everyone - http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2017DIIIMBB_PreChamp_DIII_M_Basketball_20161024.pdf - which is probably the best thing about the way things work nowadays.  It eliminates bias and favoritism like the old days -- and let's be clear, there is bias in play in some of these conversations surrounding why IWU should not be considered (for reasons outside the criteria).

The criteria is the criteria and the numbers are the numbers.

38
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 26, 2017, 09:47:53 am »
Is there anyone out there that doesn't wear green glasses that feels IWU is worthy of being selected to participate in the national tournament?

Yes.  Here is analysis from guys who understand the process well and do a lot of work to analyze Pool C...

  * Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.
  * Drew Pastuer - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1793609#msg1793609.

Both - one a Calvin guy, the other Wooster - have IWU in the same place, literally right on the cut line at #22. I basically have IWU in the same spot - somewhere down at the end of the bubble with a very legitimate chance to get in.

The suggestion that this is driven by IWU fans is really not fair.  The people who are working this through the actual process, and avoiding subjective feelings - like "how can they get in without making the conference tournament" - have IWU very much in the bubble mix.


39
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 26, 2017, 09:39:46 am »
Here's another little diddy that I wonder about with regard to how it might possibly affect the regional rankings and selection process.................

Has anyone considered the possibility that with it's wins over Carthage last night and Augie tonight, that NCC might end up being regionally ranked? Or does this possibility only exist outside the galaxy?
Because, if NCC does end up in the regional rankings, does that not add two wins to both Carthage and Augie and two losses to IWU?

Also, another poster mentioned that Grey Giovanine is a member of the Committee. Who do you think HE is going to place on a higher rung on the ladder?

I think North Central probably will enter the rankings.  But I don't think it significantly changes the CCIW order.  The data would be...
   * Augustana: .704/.542/4-3
   * Illinois Wesleyan: .680/.556/6-4
   * Carthage: .680/.553/4-2

It probably solidifies Augie as the CCIW's top Pool C...which was already the assumption.  But it does not give Carthage a better resume than IWU.  IWU still has better overall numbers...plus a sweep of Carthage. 

In my Pool C projection, I have the order as Augie, IWU, Carthage...which I think is the only possible order based on the criteria.

I believe the final Central Region final ranking will be...

(RRO totals through the last ranking only)

1. UW-River Falls: .880/.591/8-3
2. Washington U: .800/.575/7-2
3. UW-Whitewater: .769/.567/3-5
4. UW-Eau Claire: .680/.570/3-4
5. Augustana: .704/.542/2-2
6. North Central: .654/.556/3-4
7. Illinois Wesleyan: .680/.556/6-2
8. Carthage: .680/.553/2-2

41
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 26, 2017, 09:19:17 am »
My Sunday morning look at Pool C....

(All data courtesy of Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Tier 1- Projected In/No Drama
1. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .731/.592/7-4   vs Middlebury, NESCAC final, 12:00pm ET
2. Susquehanna (MA/LAND): .800/.556/4-4
3. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .769/.567/3-5
4. Rochester (E/UAA): .840/.534/4-2
5. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.598/5-5
6. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .769/.566/4-4
7. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.560/4-3
8. Whitworth (W/NWC): .852/.544/0-3
9. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .741/.546/3-4

Tier 2- Projected In
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .750/.533/5-4
11. UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-4
12. Hope (GL/MIAA): .800/.525/2-1
13. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .769/.526/3-5
14. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.531/2-3
15. Emory (S/UAA): .720/.547/2-3
16. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.527/6-1

Tier 3- Right Side of the Bubble/Last 5 In
17. Augustana (C/CCIW): .704/.542/2-2
18. Illinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.556/6-2
19. Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/3-4
20. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .769/.545/0-4   at Babson, NEWMAC final, 2:00pm ET
21. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .800/.510/2-1   at Hanover, HCAC final, 2:00pm ET

Tier 4 - Wrong Side of the Bubble/Left at the Table
LeTourneau (S/ASC): .800/.506/2-2
John Carroll: (GL/OAC): .680/.562/2-5
Carthage (C/CCIW): .680/.553/2-2
Endicott (NE/CCC): .786/.532/1-1
St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.530/1-2
Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .731/.522/2-3
Catholic (MA/LAND): .654/.557/3-7
Rowan (AT/NJAC): .630/.5643-6

Tier 5/Never at the table
UW-Oshkosh: (C/CCIW): .630/.601/5-6
Concordia TX (S/ASC): .708/.549/1-4
Emory & Henry (S/ODAC): .731/.528/2-3   vs Guilford, ODAC final, 1:00pm ET
Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .750/.514/2-4
Loras (W/IIAC): .692/.548/1-1
St. Norbert (C/MWC): .792/.504/1-2

42
Central Region / Re: MBB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« on: February 25, 2017, 11:34:18 pm »
River Falls survives and knocks out Oshkosh to win the WIAC tourney championship and the AQ. WIAC still has a slim chance to get 3 in with Eau Claire on the fence.

Eau Claire will get in.

43
Central Region / Re: MBB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« on: February 25, 2017, 11:33:01 pm »
River Falls survives and knocks out Oshkosh to win the WIAC tourney championship and the AQ. WIAC still has a slim chance to get 3 in with Eau Claire on the fence.
North Central knocked off Augie which is not going to help Pool C alignment in Central.  Calvin knocked off Hope. And Wooster knocked off Ohio Wesleyan.  It looks like the carnage continues as the night rolls on!

Wooster's win over Ohio Wesleyan was great for Pool C teams.  Wooster was a Pool C lock but now they don't need Pool C...while OWU is not very competitive for Pool C.

It was actually a good Saturday for Pool C bubble teams overall.

44
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 25, 2017, 11:31:16 pm »
I'm simply saying that I can grasp what was bothering Bosko in his postgame comments last night. There's just something that feels off about a team not qualifying for the conference tournament and then getting to the table on Selection Monday.

I guess I understand that a little, but the process is just so black & white -- there really isn't any room for feelings in WP/SOS/RRO.

45
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 25, 2017, 11:16:34 pm »
I'll be happy to eat crow if they get a bid and none of the other 3 teams above them, Eau Claire, Augustana and Carthage don't.

UW-Eau Claire and Augustana will be ranked ahead of IWU.  Carthage will not.  If Augie gets selected (and I think they will), IWU will hit the board very late for the last couple picks or so.

Do we know Augustana will be ahead of IWU?

No.  It'd be very easy to argue that IWU's resume is better.  (But that depends on final regional rankings and RRO too.)

* Illinois Wesleyan: .680/.556/6-2
* Carthage: .680/.553/2-2
* Augustana: .704/.542/2-2
* North Park: .692/.531/2-3

IWU also has the win at Wash U, while Augie lost at home to Wash U...stuff like that comes into play potentially.

Augie vs IWU in that final Central Region ranking is tight.

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