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Messages - Titan Q

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31
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 05, 2017, 12:33:28 pm »
Hope is the host.

32
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 05, 2017, 09:53:11 am »
On the Hope vs Augustana hosting topic, when we did our mock Pool C selections on the Hoopsville Selection Sunday show, we had Hope ahead of Augie in the process...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1793874#msg1793874

In other words, we had Hope as an overall higher tournament seed.  The hosting decision would seem to me to come down to seed. 

Will be very interesting to see how this plays out and it's a huge decision -- both teams (Augie, Hope) have such a great homecourt advantage.  Whoever gets to host will have to be considered the favorite to get to Salem.

33
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 05, 2017, 08:24:24 am »
Credit to Titan Q for his preseason prediction that Augie would be very competitive despite losing 8 seniors including the team's top 6 scorers from last year's team. I was sure it would be a rebuilding year.

Actually, the credit for that should go to AndOne. Mark was the first one to posit, back on October 6 (and again on October 22) that Augustana could turn out to be very good this season.


I assume augiefan is referring to my comments about talent level since he was involved in that discussion...

Regarding Augustana, I watched a lot of their game vs Alma tonight.  In my opinion the Vikings are absolutely not overrated.  I will go as far as to say this - Augie is more talented this year than last year.  Now, that talent is young and/or experienced, so it is not all meshed together yet, and not always pretty.  But I believe this might be the most talented Grey Giovanine Augie team I have seen.

Last year's Augie team made the Elite Eight, and the 2015 version played in the national championship game, and this year's team is more talented?  ???
They may be more athletic, but I think the jury will remain out for awhile on the question of bring more talented.

Yes, I believe Augustana's 2016-17 team is more talented than the Elite 8 team last year.  That doesn't mean they'll do as well (I don't think Augie will win the CCIW this year), but just matching pure talent last year vs this year, I think this team is more talented.

If, after only two games, you can tell this Augie team is more talented than their last two teams that went a combined 56-7, then the first thing you should do tomorrow morning is go out and buy a lottery ticket. 🤓

Who WILL win the CCIW?

I would certainly like to see Q's vision of a his year's Augie team come to fruition, but the simple truth is freshmen and sophomore dominated teams do not succeed in the CCIW.

Not often, but it happens:

* 2003-04 IWU (12-2, 1st) - Dauksas (So.), Amelianovich (So.), Freeman (Fr.), etc

* 1999-00 Carthage (11-3, 1st) - Wiertel (So.), McDaniel (Fr.), Garnes (Fr.), etc


And this Augustana team has nice senior presence with Jacob Johnston emerging as a leader.

34
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 04, 2017, 04:29:58 pm »
Spoke to someone who is familiar with Hanover (NCC's opponent tonight).  A few tidbits...

* Wes McKinney is a very good player - 2nd Team all-CCIW kind of guy.  Deceptively good athlete who can really shoot it.

* This Hanover team is similar to that group under Mike Beitzel that IWU faced a few times.  They don't look like much when they warm up but they will execute and they won't beat themselves.  The Panthers make very few defensive mistakes, they play smart and don't take bad shots, a great shooting team, and will make you defend for the full shot clock almost every possession.

* They will be challenged by NCC's size - Sorenson in particular. Hanover plays 4 guards around Muchmore - just not very big compared to, say, a top CCIW team.

* Muchmore will have trouble guarding Sorenson on the perimeter when he steps out as he likes to do - if Sorenson's jumpshot is falling he could do a lot of damage out there.

* Sorenson will have to be a good pick and roll defender.  Hanover will spread NCC out and attack the rim.


35
Central Region / Re: WBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: March 03, 2017, 06:59:17 am »
Illinois Wesleyan (18-9, 12-4) vs Trine (24-2, 15-1), 5:30pm ET/4:30 CT at Ohio Northern...

Illinois Wesleyan (18-9, 12-4)
G - Amanda Kelly, 5-6 Sr.   8.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.6 apg
G - Rebekah Ehresman, 5-7 Jr.   12.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.4 apg
G - Molly McGraw, 5-8 Jr.   17.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.7 apg
F - Sydney Shanks, 5-8 Fr.   4.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg
C - Maddie Merritt, 6-0 So.   12.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg

F - Ashley Schneider, 5-10 So.    6.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg
G - Nina Anderson, 5-6 So.   5.3 ppg, 2.1 rpg

Trine (24-2, 15-1)
G - Taylor Cole, 5-6 Sr.   3.9 ppg, 3.7 ppg, 2.7 apg
G - Katy Steers, 5-9 Fr.   5.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.4 apg
G - Cassidy Williams, 5-9 So.   6.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 apg
G - Brandi Dawson, 5-10 So.   15.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg
F - Hayley Martin, 6-2 Jr.  15.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg

G - Ashley Elliott, 5-8 Jr.   5.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg
G - Montana Martin, 5-10 So.   6.0 ppg


Regional page - http://livestats.onu.edu/livestats/wbb/xlive.htm

Video - https://boxcast.tv/view/wbb---ncaa-1st-round---game-1---3-3-17-700790

Stats - http://livestats.onu.edu/livestats/wbb/xlive.htm

36
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 27, 2017, 01:03:01 pm »
Hoopsville Selection Sunday Special - Pool C Projections (in progress)
Dave McHugh, Bob Quillman, Ryan Scott

refresh for updates

1st 8 on the board
AT - New Jersey City
C - UW-Whitewater
E - Rochester
GL - Hope
S - Emory
MA - Susquehanna
NE - Babson
W - Whitworth

Hoopsville Projections (in order)
1. Babson (NE)
2. Susquehanna (MA)
3. UWW (C)
4. Rochester (E)
5. Tufts (NE)
6. Williams (NE)
7. Whitworth (W)
8. Wesleyan (NE)
9. New Jersey City (AT)
10. Salisbury (MA)
11. Amherst (NE)

(break)

12. Emory (S)
13. Hope (GL)
14. Skidmore (E)
15. St. Lawrence (E)
16. Cabrini (AT)
17. Augustana (C)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Keene State: .679/.576/3-4
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

18. Keene State (NE)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Endicott: .786/.522/3-4
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

19. Endicott (NE)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

20. Mount St. Joseph (GL)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Ohio Wesleyan: .750/.514/2-4
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

21. Ohio Wesleyan (GL)

Left at Table
AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL -
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

Looks like 19 of 21.  In our #20 and 21 spots we had Mount St. Joseph and Ohio Wesleyan...committee picked UW-Oshkosh and St. Thomas.

37
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 27, 2017, 08:02:53 am »
As D-Mac said several times, just because the committee re-ranks a team regionally doesn't mean that it therefore intends to pick that team for Pool C. It's simply obeying the criteria, and the criteria are favoring UWO over IWU, UWEC, Carthage, and North Park in terms of overall appeal in their eyes. But the .630 WL% is a sticking point that the committee won't get past, or so says the mock selectors. You two guys have to remember that UWO doesn't exist in isolation; it's on the table with seven other teams at any given time. There are plenty of instances in which a team gets to the table and stays there. Ryan, Dave, and Bob believed that UWO would stay at the table until the number of available berths ran out.

If UW-Oshkosh is not picked (and if those final rankings were right), the whole thing will seem odd to me. The criteria the national committee is obeying in making regional ranking adjustments should be the same identical criteria used to select Pool C teams.  So if the national committee doesn't like .630 - if that is simply too low for Pool C - I don't understand why they would rank UWO over other Central options (IWU, UW-Eau Claire, Carthage, North Park). 

One example I aways think of - in 2008 IWU was 3-0 vs Wheaton but the regional committee appropriately ranked Wheaton higher, because Wheaton had a strong Pool C resume and IWU did not (and Wheaton got picked). To me, the Pool C candidates in the regional rankings have to be listed in order of Pool C viability because those rankings are directly used for the Pool C selection process.

I guess it is why I kind of expect to see UW-Oshkosh in the bracket that is released today.  But I could be completely wrong about that, who knows.

38
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 27, 2017, 07:58:17 am »
Just FYI, the original Central ranking I heard was...

1. UW-River Falls
2. Wash U
3. UW-Whitewater
4. Augustana
5. Benedictine
6. UW-Eau Claire
7. UW-Oshkosh
8. Carthage

And then heard the national committee went this way (which we used last night)...

1. UW-River Falls
2. Wash U
3. UW-Whitewater
4. Augustana
5. Benedictine
6. UW-Oshkosh
7. Illinois Wesleyan
8. UW-Eau Claire

In our process, had IWU hit the board after Augie got picked (#17) - in other words, had IWU been ranked ahead of UW-Oshkosh - I'm confident IWU would have been picked somewhere in our final four picks.

* Keene State: .679/.576/3-4
* Endicott: .786/.522/3-4
* Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
* Ohio Wesleyan: .731/.514/2-4 (IWU won at OWU)

* Illinois Wesleyan: .680/.556/4-2 (instead of 6-2, assuming Carthage not ranked)

39
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 26, 2017, 05:43:24 pm »
Hoopsville Selection Sunday Special - Pool C Projections (in progress)
Dave McHugh, Bob Quillman, Ryan Scott

refresh for updates

1st 8 on the board
AT - New Jersey City
C - UW-Whitewater
E - Rochester
GL - Hope
S - Emory
MA - Susquehanna
NE - Babson
W - Whitworth

Hoopsville Projections (in order)
1. Babson (NE)
2. Susquehanna (MA)
3. UWW (C)
4. Rochester (E)
5. Tufts (NE)
6. Williams (NE)
7. Whitworth (W)
8. Wesleyan (NE)
9. New Jersey City (AT)
10. Salisbury (MA)
11. Amherst (NE)

(break)

12. Emory (S)
13. Hope (GL)
14. Skidmore (E)
15. St. Lawrence (E)
16. Cabrini (AT)
17. Augustana (C)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Keene State: .679/.576/3-4
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

18. Keene State (NE)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Endicott: .786/.522/3-4
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

19. Endicott (NE)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Mount St. Joseph: .769/.523/2-2
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

20. Mount St. Joseph (GL)

AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL - Ohio Wesleyan: .750/.514/2-4
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

21. Ohio Wesleyan (GL)

Left at Table
AT - TCNJ: .692/.521/3-5
C - UW-Oshkosh: .630/.602/5-6
E - Brockport: .731/.523/2-3
GL -
MA - Moravian: .720/.527/5-5
NE - Mass-Dartmouth: .630/.549/4-3
S - LeTourneau: .800/.506/2-2
W - St. Thomas: .731/.530/1-2

40
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 26, 2017, 05:14:04 pm »
Matt Snyder has IWU #21 (of 21) - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.

In my final projection I have IWU #20 - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1793849#msg1793849.


Just depends on a) how the Central ranking was finalized, and b) if IWU gets to the table late if they get picked in one of those final 1-2 spots.

41
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 26, 2017, 04:52:27 pm »
I will be joining on the Hoopsville special to talk Pool C in a bit.

http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2016-17/feb26

42
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 26, 2017, 04:51:25 pm »
My final projection...

(All data courtesy of Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Tier 1- Projected In/No Drama
1. Babson (NE/NEWMAC): .926/.574/4-1
2. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .731/.592/7-4   
3. Susquehanna (MA/LAND): .800/.556/4-4
4. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .769/.567/3-5
5. Rochester (E/UAA): .840/.534/4-2
6. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.598/5-5
7. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .769/.566/4-4
8. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.560/4-3
9. Whitworth (W/NWC): .852/.544/0-3
10. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .741/.546/3-4

Tier 2- Projected In
11. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .750/.533/5-4
12. Hope (GL/MIAA): .800/.525/2-1
13. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.531/2-3
14. Emory (S/UAA): .720/.547/2-3
15. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.527/6-1
16. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .769/.526/3-5

Tier 3- Right Side of the Bubble/Last 5 In
17. Augustana (C/CCIW): .704/.542/2-2
18. Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/3-4
19. UW-Oshkosh: (C/WIAC): .630/.601/5-6
20. Illinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.556/4-2
21. LeTourneau (S/ASC): .800/.506/2-2

Tier 4 - Wrong Side of the Bubble/Left at the Table
UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-4
Emory & Henry (S/ODAC): .704/.528/2-3   
Endicott (NE/CCC): .786/.532/1-1
Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .769/.510/2-1   
St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .731/.530/1-2
Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .731/.522/2-3
Catholic (MA/LAND): .654/.557/3-7
Rowan (AT/NJAC): .630/.5643-6

Tier 5/Never at the table
Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .750/.514/2-4
John Carroll: (GL/OAC): .680/.562/2-5
Carthage (C/CCIW): .680/.553/2-2
Virginia Wesleyan (S/ODAC): .679/..533/1-7
Loras (W/IIAC): .692/.548/1-1
St. Norbert (C/MWC): .792/.504/1-2

43
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 26, 2017, 04:05:08 pm »
Rumblings that the national committee might have made some revisions.  Getting interesting.

44
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
« on: February 26, 2017, 04:01:31 pm »
Mount St. Joseph lost to Hanover in the HCAC...maybe on the wrong side of the bubble now.

45
Central Region / Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« on: February 26, 2017, 02:20:26 pm »
I really don't think there is politics here.  IWU's fate was sealed with the last rankings, they just refused to be acknowledged on these boards.

Why would the last rankings be a make or break in terms of the final rankings, Scott?  The rankings are a very fluid thing, week to week.  Why couldn't IWU have been unranked in Week 3 and then pop back in Week 4 (final) after the data changed?

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