Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - jknezek

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 114
16
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 10, 2014, 02:00:27 pm »
I think W&L was Swarthmore's last game, and they managed to beat us 16-6 helping keep alive W&L's "never won a game in NY state" that was bolstered by the playoff loss to Hobart a few years ago.

17
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 10, 2014, 12:07:43 pm »
Does anyone know how many D3 football programs there were in 1999 when the AQ began? I would be interested to compare to today's number.

I can't give you that number for certain, but I can spitball at it.

D3football.com's FAQ page (http://d3football.com/interactive/faq/general#16) suggests that at least 31 schools have added Division III football from 1997-2014, 29 of them since 1999.  I know we've lost a handful of schools (Colorado College in the mid-00's, and McMurry jumped up a Division - although I think they're coming back - plus I'm sure another handful that I just don't know about because they're before my time), but still, there must have been a net gain of 20 or so schools.

Now, whether there are another 20 schools out there who will add in the next two decades, I don't know, we might be approaching the tail-end of a boom growth period.  I'm not qualified to comment there.

McMurry announced they were coming back. I know we lost Swarthmore. There were also a few that jumped football programs in the mid to late 90s like Georgetown and Davidson in order to keep D1 basketball programs.

18
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 10, 2014, 07:32:06 am »
That is a great idea

19
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 09, 2014, 07:23:56 pm »
I don't think we will see a conference re-alignment down to 7 team conferences either. The point was that we are already, by the rules, in a situation where we could have more A requirements than slots in the tournament. Therefore it isn't real far fetched to assume that some point in the future, given the growth of D3 football, you will find yourself in a position where it is going to be a real close thing even given the above minimum conferences.

The SAA is a case in point. When Hendrix and Berry added football the other members of what became the SAA bolted and formed a new conference since there was now enough teams to earn an AQ. Those teams shared mission and values and it made sense in all respects, but it was possible because there were two more teams playing D3 football. I expect to GRADUALLY see more of this. Another good example is the New England conferences. For years they played two divisions and shared a bid, eventually they got tired and split into two bids. If the MWC grows bigger that kind of action becomes a reasonable assumption. Same with the PAC.

Your posts are predicated upon D3 never reaching the tipping point. My posts are predicated upon the very real and supportable growth of the division causing an inevitable approach to that point in the future. I simply offered a workable, though distasteful, set of alternatives. I believe, with the increasing imbalance between male and female students, football will continue to be added to existing schools. The injury and concussion data may eventually take a toll in the other direction, but I think football is more likely to grow on D3 campuses than shrink for the foreseeable future. The economic and diversity issues are paramount at the moment.

Does anyone know how many D3 football programs there were in 1999 when the AQ began? I would be interested to compare to today's number.

20
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 09, 2014, 04:28:26 pm »
Wally it's not an issue for today, it's an issue for when we have 30 or more AQ conferences. And to some degree you can look at the ECAC games in the northeast/mid-atlantic that teams pay for and opt in to play. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Sometimes they opt to play but not host. It's not a completely foreign concept.

I don't care about today, the balance A/B/C works just fine for me today. But the day is coming fast when the numbers don't pan out so well. As I pointed out, the only reason it works today is because we have so many 8+ member conferences. If we all went to the minimum, maximizing the chances of earning a bid, you'd already have to hand out 33 bids for a 32 team tournament! The tournament only works now thanks to teams willingly playing in significantly larger than minimum conferences. Losing the seventh at large doesn't bother me. Losing the second or third would start to get on my nerves...

21
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 09, 2014, 03:49:26 pm »
Yes it's ugly since it wouldn't necessarily be fair, the WIAC and MIAC could be paired geographically in a miserably unfair grouping, but it would solve the math problem at the top of the post. It would also solve a "games played" type problem. It's likely that the teams going deepest into the tournament would come from 2 bid leagues, so those going deepest wouldn't necessarily play the opening round while teams that aren't going to progress as deep get an extra game. You could have 37 teams in this format, with 5 pod pairings (10 teams) and 27 byes. With 37 teams given the current numbers you'd have 26 As, 1 B, and 10 Cs. That would buy you an awfully long time of expansion while giving a lot of access to good teams that are crowded out by less good Pool A squads.

The 37 team tournament also requires an extra week of postseason, which I can't imagine D3 presidents are signing up for.  I also can't imagine that the NCAA would love to pay to put on five more games. 

I like the 32 team format.  This comes from a fan of the team that was 33rd last year.

I agree it would add a week, but as I pointed out the teams playing the extra week probably aren't playing on the back end, so it's the same number of games for most teams. I also said the teams playing in the pods should pay their own way. If one forfeits the other goes through. Keeping it between two local conferences minimizes the expense as much as possible. I don't think this scenario is at all likely, but I think it's preferable to what is going to happen if D3 football keeps expanding and we don't do anything. I also prefer it to a blanket 11th game, which I think will absolutely not happen and doesn't solve any problems.

I like symmetrical playoffs as much as the next guy, but when you look at the expansion rate we have a problem that won't be solved by acting like ostriches.

22
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 09, 2014, 12:33:01 pm »
I'm don't think there is a compelling reason to change anything.

There isn't right now. But D3 is growing at a couple teams a year. Right now we go 7 teams per conference A bid. Assuming we can continue to ignore the NESCAC (a fair assumption to ignore 10), we have 232 teams eligible for the playoffs right now. That makes for 33.14 bids if everyone were in a 7 team conference. Problem number 1. Thankfully we have some breathing room thanks to the following conferences, CC (10), E8 (9), HCAC (9), MAC (10), MASCAC (9), MIAC (9), Midwest (12), NCAC (10), OAC (10), PAC (11), UMAC (10), and USAS (9). There are also 10 conferences with 8 members. So by going over, we've bought ourselves some room. We use that room to subsidize the ASC (6) on probation, the Independents (5), and the SCAC (4), the latter two falling into the 1+ pool B bids. But as it stands, even with all the subsidies, we are down to 5 Pool C bids, 26 Pool A, and one Pool B.

None of that is too bad if we stand still going forward. Pat would know the numbers best, but it seems to me we are picking up 1-3 teams a year in D3 on average. So every 3-4 years you are taking away a C bid at the current ratio. Won't take long to see what the future holds. So you have two options, expand the playoffs or increase the ratio to get an A. Expanding the playoffs will cost big money, though I can think of at least one way to mitigate the costs even if it doesn't increase the "fairness" of the seeding process.

That leaves us with upping the ratio. Musical chairs, but how do you need to up the ratio? If you move it by 1, you only affect 4 conferences as it stands now, the MIAA (7), the NACC (7), the SAA (7) and the ASC (6) which is already problematic unless McMurry comes back into the fold. At most going to 8 moves these 27 teams into Pool B, with a couple independents you go from having 5 bids guaranteed among the group to 4 bids. So the complete result of upping the requirement to 8 is basically a +1 C bid as it stands now. Not real helpful since that C was eaten up by D3 expansion in general.

If you go to 9, then you get a mess. In addition to the 4 conferences above, there are 10 more conferences with 8 members. Hello musical chairs. On the upside, you would consolidate to 80+27+3 independents (guess on the indies) = 102/9 = 12.2 bids versus the 15 now given to this pot. So you earn 2-3 Pool C bids back by creating complete havoc. That havoc might work out for you as conferences combine to more than 9 members, probably 10 for scheduling purposes, earning you another 1 or 2 C bids. So you get 3-5 extra at large bids, one eaten every few years for D3 expansion probably buys you a decade of expansion.

Basically in a few years you are going to have a few options. Spend the money to expand or revamp the AQ system. Upping the ante by 1 member does almost no good. Upping it by 2 makes a complete mess but is probably the most realistic option. So all AQ schools play a 9 game conference schedule and one OOC. Good luck picking the Pool C candidates given the limited cross over data.

The other option is the one that is already in use somewhat in sports with more members. Regional pods that don't accurately divide up the best teams, but lower the numbers when you go to a more national scene. You could pair conferences pre-season, or even multi-season, to pit champions against each other. For example the ODAC and USAS champion (or a runner-up for either if they earn the C) could play for a right to enter the tournament. Any league getting two bids gets the champion through automatically. This way you limit expenses drastically for all involved while still expanding. Make the schools pay for this round and if they choose not to, the opponent gets a pass into the national tournament.

Yes it's ugly since it wouldn't necessarily be fair, the WIAC and MIAC could be paired geographically in a miserably unfair grouping, but it would solve the math problem at the top of the post. It would also solve a "games played" type problem. It's likely that the teams going deepest into the tournament would come from 2 bid leagues, so those going deepest wouldn't necessarily play the opening round while teams that aren't going to progress as deep get an extra game. You could have 37 teams in this format, with 5 pod pairings (10 teams) and 27 byes. With 37 teams given the current numbers you'd have 26 As, 1 B, and 10 Cs. That would buy you an awfully long time of expansion while giving a lot of access to good teams that are crowded out by less good Pool A squads.

The nice thing about the pod concept is it can be expanded if you want to start small with just minor adjustments. See March Madness...

23
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 09, 2014, 11:27:36 am »
Do we really need 11 games? The big boys have moved from 10 to 11 to 12+. That's a lot. We have playoffs, remember, so 10 can turn into 13+ for a few teams.

Although it's unlikely to happen I'd rather add another round to the playoffs then go to 11 regular season games. As D3 continues to expand you either have to bump up the A requirement to 10+ teams, forcing another round of conference musical chairs, or you have to expand the playoffs so you can include the A teams and a few C teams. At least this way you limit the impact of another set of games to only a few teams. I don't see either scenario happening, however. Especially with D3 schools already changing some sport rules to start saving money.

24
South Region football / Re: USA South Athletic Conference
« on: September 09, 2014, 10:02:01 am »
narch, are you coming to Guilford Saturday night?  If you do, give me a heads up so I can say hello.  It should be a good, well-attended game.
will be at a wedding...probably won't even be able to watch the stream
Ah, been there, done that.  As my brothers and I ask, "Who schedules a wedding during football season?"

Exactly! I'm heading to a wedding on Saturday as well.....4pm....middle of (*$!&%^%&$*)$&@ day!!

The dude needs to turn in his man card!

I've got the same problem in October except the guy made it even worse.  2 p.m. wedding, 6 p.m. reception. even worse i'm in the dang thing, so i have to show up early, and I've got to be there for the rehearsal waste of time Friday night...

25
South Region football / Re: South Region Fan Poll
« on: September 09, 2014, 06:58:53 am »
can say I am baffled by this poll.  not sure how 2 teams that got beat rather handily are still that high, but that is why it is open to interpretation.

Losing when you are expected to lose isn't a reason to drop. Now if the margin was unacceptable that could cause a drop. To be honest TMC did what I expected them to do at Wesley so why punish them?  HSC was mildly worse than expected but not sure anyone behind them in the poll would have done better at Wabash. More interested in LC who won a home squeaker against a lightly regarded team. That was a significantly worse result than expected but they didn't really move. With their schedule that win didn't do much to convince me they can stick in the poll.

26
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 08, 2014, 04:44:22 pm »
First, it was a great weekend for Wabash and HSC to play each other.  When the President of the NCAA shows up to flip the coin, that says something.  HSC has a great QB to Receiver combo.  And the O line learned something about facing a strong defense which will redound to their benefit as the year goes on.  Question:  with a QB and receiver who are outstanding and very capable of getting out of a hole ... why would you puch kick on 3rd down from the 4 yard line rather than go with your "go to" 2 guys on 3rd down?  You have demonstrated the talent of both receiver and QB on throws of 10 yards or further.  Why not call a pass play of 10+ yards and see if you could not get yardage after catch?  A quick pass of 10+ yards is a bread and butter (or should be) play and quick enough that Wabash would (probably) not be able to sack the QB ... or else the QB could throw it away.  A 4th down kick would have gotten you want the puch kick got.  Just seems to me it sent a message of "we are in deep ka ka now" to the whole team ... I know Wabash would not have done that.  Is that a play which generally works better?  I thought that looked like a very bad choice for  team morale with little or no upside.

Any insight as to why that would be done?

Welcome to Marty ball... About once a game you just have to scratch your head and wonder. Sometimes it looks brilliant, sometimes it just leaves you gaping. But Coach Favret has brought HSC a long way and seems to have them consistently at the top of the conference. So as an ODAC opponent you just tip your head and say, "yep, Marty ball" and hope that next time it's a punt on 3rd down and not something that bites you in the rear instead.

27
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 08, 2014, 04:13:36 pm »
Okay, fellow ODACers, let's get real.  The top two preseason teams lose to the only quality opponents this past weekend.  I'd say the ODAC has a long way to go and a tough road ahead in the regional scene, and totally forget the national scene.  I watched the whole HSC game, and it didn't feel like a two TD game, never felt like HSC was that close.  And, for RMC, what the heck happened?  The rest of the ODAC played less than stellar opponents.  I can easily see the conference winner with two or more losses.  Even my HSC friends would agree that rushing for -5 yards and hail marys is not going to win many games.

There isn't much new here. The ODAC has not been a regional or national player since Bridgewater. I think this HSC team is the best we've had since those Bridgewater teams, but I don't think it is a national caliber team. I expect HSC to win the conference and, depending on the match up, maybe win a game in the playoffs. Losing to Wabash put a dent in that scenario as it greatly decreases your odds to be at home, but as we saw last year sometimes you luck out a bit. The ODAC is not a national player right now regardless of how much stock people put into 18 minutes of a playoff game last season. I respect HSC because they should be the class of the ODAC, but you are fooling yourself if you think they are a top 10 team.

Still, with 240+ teams in D3, being considered in the top 25-30 is quite an honor. Making the second round of the playoffs is quite an achievement. We will see how the season plays out. CNU at HSC and Methodist at Guilford are both good tests for ODAC teams this weekend. Enjoy the football and don't be so concerned about the national picture. The conference teams aren't there, but that doesn't mean it isn't a lot of good entertaining fun to play the season.

28
South Region football / Re: Southern Athletic Association
« on: September 08, 2014, 01:25:51 pm »
Quote
Planning to be at the W&L game week 2. If you are going to be there let me know so we can say hi. Looking forward to seeing Sewanee again. Try number 5 for a non raining visit.
I should be on campus next Saturday.   Weather forecast at the moment is saying the heavy weather should clear out by Friday.   I'm usually on the fence on the 40-yd line towards the flagpole... just look for the big guy wearing the brown fedora.

Will do. We should get there plenty early as we're coming in our old motor home again. Planning to not park somewhere I get blocked into this time. Hopefully we'll get a good spot by the W&L tailgate at the practice fields. We'll be hard to miss in the old coach. Feel free to stop by. Planning on having some grill pizzas and other food and should have another family with no connection to either school just hanging out to enjoy the day and game. Sometime after 11 CST is the goal, but with little kids and having to drive up from Chattanooga it's a bit hit or miss. No good campgrounds just south of the school unfortunately.

29
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 08, 2014, 10:52:38 am »
The HS OLineman with 12 starts last year, the word around the HS campus is the parents bought the kid a new car to convince him to come back for a 5th year. Not sure they are getting their monies worth thus far.

Interesting. My parents couldn't wait to STOP paying the education bills. They certainly wouldn't have given me a car to rack up some more...

30
South Region football / Re: USA South Athletic Conference
« on: September 07, 2014, 12:53:41 pm »
What's more shocking?

Averett winning the opening game under their new head coach
or
Greensboro/Guilford score?

It's a toss up for me.

I'd say Averett but it's a close thing. W&L just isn't the team they were a couple years ago, especially on offense. They also haven't won a road opener since the 1960s. Hats off to Averett. They were well prepared for the Generals and forced W&L to chase. That is not something W&L is built to do. Fumbles on the goal line and 10 penalties were just too much for a team with little margin for error this season.

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 114