Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - jknezek

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 119
16
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: September 30, 2014, 03:11:24 pm »
Some argue or imply that that is what you do. Rank teams ahead of teams they beat, the hell with the other data points.

Who has argued that?  Please, quote a specific instance of someone in this thread saying that.

There's a strong implication in some of the comments above through the entire thread where those who take a more nuanced view of a H2H result may be called out. I went extreme with Kenyon / Wittenberg, but the St. Thomas / St. John's game is probably a better example where since it's a rivalry game, and St. John's has a loss as well, where the H2H between the two may NOT be as black and white as some would think. On that given day St. Thomas lost. Who is the better team, though? The loss to C-M by St. John's still lingers. IF C-M beats St. Thomas, then all in the MIAC is aligned.

C-M isn't exactly a bad loss. They are 4-0, 2-0. Will they beat St. Thomas? I don't know, but it's not like St. Johns lost to a hopeless team. Why is this mitigating before the St. Thomas - CM Game? Wouldn't you take both games at face value right now and rank C-M over St. Johns over St. Thomas? If any one of them loses again before the C-M / St. Thomas game you could re-evaluate then, but right now why mess up what seems a series of credible results on the field? Is there a reason to believe St. Thomas is significantly better than C-M? No common opponents so far. Are we relying on history, preconceptions? Where is the smoking gun that makes either the C-M win or the St. Johns win a fluke in relation to St. Thomas's quality?

17
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: September 30, 2014, 03:01:46 pm »
Some argue or imply that that is what you do. Rank teams ahead of teams they beat, the hell with the other data points.

Who has argued that?  Please, quote a specific instance of someone in this thread saying that.

There's a strong implication in some of the comments above through the entire thread.

I haven't picked up on that, but there are different ways to read everything. Witness my apology above. I think some of the problem is ExTP and I are talking about this specific instance while smedindy is being more general. I certainly agree there are other circumstances that have to be weighted. I just don't see any for this instance. So we're probably mostly in agreement here and just not doing a good job of understanding exactly what each one of us is referring to. Especially since the posts, and some modifications, are coming quickly.

18
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: September 30, 2014, 02:56:33 pm »
The serious question is if you, as a voter, still think NC can beat UWSP three out of the next five?

This is kind of a cop out, isn't it?  Don't we use this who would win the most out of seven or ten games to more or less dismiss an actual game result that doesn't jive with our preconceptions?

NO! It's not a cop out. Weird results and outliers would pollute our rankings. Say Kenyon upsets Wittenberg. We'd never rank Kenyon ahead of Wittenberg.

Ridiculous. Kenyon has mitigating data in terms of other losses. UWSP is undefeated. There isn't any mitigating data. You just want to ignore the result.

False assumption on your part, my friend.

Kenyon is 0-4. I'm not assuming anything. If Kenyon was undefeated and beat Witt, then yes, I would rank them ahead of Witt.

I do, though, fail to see how it can be a COP OUT if you don't think that one result, which can be a fluke, happenstance, circumstance, bad weather, injuries, nefariousness, rivalries, etc.


As near as we can tell, none of these fluke happenstances occurred. So why rank UWSP behind NCC?

I didn't. THAT was your false assumption. You made it personal and I was not talking my personal rankings but a thought process.

Hmm. Apologies. The statement I made "you want to ignore the result" wasn't really targeted at what you may or may not have done but in the way the argument put forth is designed to allow someone to ignore the result. It was not meant to be a personal attack so much as part of the general arguments. I should have worded it better. Sorry.

19
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: September 30, 2014, 02:49:16 pm »
The serious question is if you, as a voter, still think NC can beat UWSP three out of the next five?

This is kind of a cop out, isn't it?  Don't we use this who would win the most out of seven or ten games to more or less dismiss an actual game result that doesn't jive with our preconceptions?

NO! It's not a cop out. Weird results and outliers would pollute our rankings. Say Kenyon upsets Wittenberg. We'd never rank Kenyon ahead of Wittenberg.

Ridiculous. Kenyon has mitigating data in terms of other losses. UWSP is undefeated. There isn't any mitigating data. You just want to ignore the result.

False assumption on your part, my friend.

Kenyon is 0-4. I'm not assuming anything. If Kenyon was undefeated and beat Witt, then yes, I would rank them ahead of Witt.

I do, though, fail to see how it can be a COP OUT if you don't think that one result, which can be a fluke, happenstance, circumstance, bad weather, injuries, nefariousness, rivalries, etc.


As near as we can tell, none of these fluke happenstances occurred. So why rank UWSP behind NCC?

20
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: September 30, 2014, 02:44:31 pm »
The serious question is if you, as a voter, still think NC can beat UWSP three out of the next five?

This is kind of a cop out, isn't it?  Don't we use this who would win the most out of seven or ten games to more or less dismiss an actual game result that doesn't jive with our preconceptions?

NO! It's not a cop out. Weird results and outliers would pollute our rankings. Say Kenyon upsets Wittenberg. We'd never rank Kenyon ahead of Wittenberg.

Ridiculous. Kenyon has mitigating data in terms of other losses. UWSP is undefeated. There isn't any mitigating data. You just want to ignore the result.

21
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: September 30, 2014, 02:39:15 pm »

I don't think one way is better than another, it's just a matter of opinion and interpretation.

You can have an opinion and interpretation about anything. It's just difficult to defend one when the data says you are wrong. UWSP was better than NCC last week. That's the data point. UWSP is 3-0, no blemishes yet to diminish the win. In order to put NCC ahead of UWSP you have to ignore the result on the field, the most important piece of data, and the only relevant ancillary data we have this year (overall record).

There are a lot of people here in Alabama that would like to crown Auburn the National Champion last year. It's easy to do if you ignore the most important piece of data...

22
West Region football / Re: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« on: September 30, 2014, 02:27:19 pm »
As a transplant to Alabama I can attest to the SEC madness that infects this part of the country. I don't have a dog in the fight, find most of the people down here that do have a dog in the fight incredibly annoying, and on an amazing weekend of SEC West football am planning to be at a mediocre at best D3 game involving Birmingham Southern (0-4) and Sewanee (1-3).

That being said, the SEC West folks consider the SEC East to be a poor little brother. It's not that the SEC West folks are ignoring Missouri's loss to Indiana, it just doesn't matter to them. The SEC West has won the last 5 SEC championships. The top 6 teams in the SEC West, at least, would have a likely shot to win the East. To be honest Arkansas would probably compete as well. It's like the SEC before last year's title game. The rest of the country just wasn't relevant until they could take the trophy. The East isn't relevant until they can take the game in Atlanta. FSU? Drawing lots of ire. The SEC East? As irrelevant to the SEC West as the Big 10 until proven otherwise.

So when you talk to the true SEC fanatics around here, Missouri losing to Indiana doesn't matter. Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia... as far as the SEC West folks are concerned they are just waiting to be cannon fodder. This weekend Alabama (3) plays Ole Miss (11), Miss St. (12) plays Texas A&M (6), and Auburn (5) and LSU (15) face off (all AP rankings). There isn't a conference in the country, let alone half a conference, that doesn't wish they had that slate of games to offer up to viewing audiences...

I would argue that those slate of games were conceived due to the Media (ESPN) bias and the fact that those teams are perceived to be better solely due to one of the teams (Alabama) being very good over the past few years and the others (LSU & Auburn) winning championships. For example, Auburn beats Oregon by 3 in the Nat'l Championship and team A, B, C from the SEC West loses to that same Auburn team by 11, 13, and 9 respectively, they are ranked in the Top 10, however Teams X, Y, and Z that loss to Oregon by 3, 8, 12, are not even Top 10, but most likely unranked, based on the current ranking philosophy. I would think that each of those teams X,Y, Z, A, B, and C would be ranked somewhere together.

What proof do you have other than it's a fun theory for those outside the southeast? These six teams are 25-1. The one loss comes to another team in the SEC West. They have 4 victories over teams in the Top 25. Two of those Top 25 wins are OOC, including a road win over the Big 12 (Auburn over KState) and a neutral-ish site win over the Big 10 (LSU over Wisconsin).

Let's compare to other conferences. The top 6 teams in the Big 10 East? 20-8, 1-3 Top 25. Big 10 West? 21-7. 0-2 Top 25. Those Top 25 losses on the OOC schedule include Oregon, VaTech, Notre Dame, and LSU. The win is over Missouri.

ACC Atlantic? 19-7, 2-4. Acc Coastal? 20-9. 1-4. The Top 25 OOC losses are to Georgia, Notre Dame, UCLA, BYU, Nebraska and East Carolina. The three non-conf wins? USC, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State.

Big 12 (combined)? 19-4. 0-4 versus the Top 25. Florida State, Auburn, BYU and UCLA own the 4 wins.

PAC 12 North? 19-7, 1-4. PAC 12 South? 19-6, 2-2 versus the Top 25. Only Oregon's win over Michigan State is OOC.

So here's the thing about the BIAS argument. 1) It has very little foundation. The SEC West has the highest winning percentage of any division in the Big 5. 2) They played 4 top 25 teams, 2 OOC. That is very much in line with every other division. The difference is the SEC West has won all of theirs, no other division is over .500. The number of cupcakes is roughly the same, the difference is the SEC West hasn't choked any of theirs. Even Arkansas, at the bottom of the SEC West, is 3-0 OOC.

So there really isn't a leg to stand on. By any objective measure, the SEC West is winning EVERYTHING, including the games they are supposed to win. Other divisions can't say the same thing. So you want to say the SEC West's rankings are fabricated? By what measure? By what objective standard? By some data other than "we're tired of the SEC."

You want to move Baylor above Alabama, Auburn or Texas A&M? Each of those teams own a real win. Baylor doesn't have squat. UCLA owns a win over Arizona State, you could move them up, Notre Dame as well if you want to stretch. Michigan State? Already a big loss to Oregon. You going to push them into the Top 5? Didn't think so. Stanford? A loss to USC. USC? A loss to Boston College for crying out loud. Wisconsin? A loss to a team just two spots ahead of them. BYU? Probably an argument to move them higher, but not above the SEC West Big 3, maybe over the little 3. Nebraska? Maybe an argument here to push them higher, but you are hanging on a win over 3-2 Miami. It isn't the mid-90s anymore. Ohio State? Nope, loss to a non Top 25. Oklahoma State? A loss to number 1 is acceptable, but their best win is Texas Tech for crying out loud.

So look at the contenders. Would you move 3 of these over LSU, Mississippi State and Ole Miss? Maybe. BYU, Nebraska and maybe someone else. So you move the bottom SEC West teams 3 spots down and Texas A&M one spot for UCLA. There STILL isn't a division in the country that wouldn't trade with the SEC West.

You're argument? It's got no factual legs...

23
West Region football / Re: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« on: September 30, 2014, 12:29:16 pm »
As a transplant to Alabama I can attest to the SEC madness that infects this part of the country. I don't have a dog in the fight, find most of the people down here that do have a dog in the fight incredibly annoying, and on an amazing weekend of SEC West football am planning to be at a mediocre at best D3 game involving Birmingham Southern (0-4) and Sewanee (1-3).

That being said, the SEC West folks consider the SEC East to be a poor little brother. It's not that the SEC West folks are ignoring Missouri's loss to Indiana, it just doesn't matter to them. The SEC West has won the last 5 SEC championships. The top 6 teams in the SEC West, at least, would have a likely shot to win the East. To be honest Arkansas would probably compete as well. It's like the SEC before last year's title game. The rest of the country just wasn't relevant until they could take the trophy. The East isn't relevant until they can take the game in Atlanta. FSU? Drawing lots of ire. The SEC East? As irrelevant to the SEC West as the Big 10 until proven otherwise.

So when you talk to the true SEC fanatics around here, Missouri losing to Indiana doesn't matter. Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia... as far as the SEC West folks are concerned they are just waiting to be cannon fodder. This weekend Alabama (3) plays Ole Miss (11), Miss St. (12) plays Texas A&M (6), and Auburn (5) and LSU (15) face off (all AP rankings). There isn't a conference in the country, let alone half a conference, that doesn't wish they had that slate of games to offer up to viewing audiences...

24
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: September 30, 2014, 11:34:07 am »
The serious question is if you, as a voter, still think NC can beat UWSP three out of the next five?

This is kind of a cop out, isn't it?  Don't we use this who would win the most out of seven or ten games to more or less dismiss an actual game result that doesn't jive with our preconceptions?

90% of the time, yes. It's one reason I just don't like early season, and especially preseason, polls. People get locked in, primarily based on history, and it is very hard to dislodge those conceptions. It gives us something to talk about, but it creates a tremendous bias.

I think you see that in some of the responses that say "well I can't move NCC that far down" or "I can't move UWSP that far up." That is the definition of poll bias and is the weakest argument you can make. It is not dependent on the data, it is simply dependent on what the voter thought originally and not wanting to be that "wrong" based on the latest data point. Yes, wrong in quotes since it's a poll and you can't be wrong on an opinion.

I will say that if you were starting the poll from scratch, today, based on what has happened in the last three weeks and nothing to do with history beyond that, there is no way you put NCC at 2-1 above 3-0 UWSP. You can't ignore the H2H based on this year's results only. Of course it is very hard to ignore everything else we know and think we know based on history and the upcoming schedules for both teams...

25
Men's soccer / Re: 2014 D3 Season: National Perspective
« on: September 30, 2014, 08:56:49 am »
Best thing to do with Karma is ignore it. Some people will ding you for your screen name, others for the team you support, sometimes for the way a game goes. You hope it's mostly because what you write, and it usually is, but you never know. I tend to tell people when I give it, usually for something that was very insightful or because it made me laugh out loud, or because they corrected something I wrote incorrectly. I almost never take it away unless someone really gets on my nerves. Other times people get into what seems like Karma wars, although I haven't heard of a good one of those in a while.

Overall, it doesn't really mean anything. Don't sweat it. I have found the more you talk about it the more you are likely to get dinged just for bringing it up.

26
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: September 29, 2014, 01:01:39 pm »
Sometimes the better team doesn't win, and head to head is a fluke and happenstance. Would North Central beat Stevens Point three out of five?

It's kind of hard to answer that in this case. If it was a fluky win, something where the under dog got less than half the yards but won because of 5 turnovers then you can make that case. Here we had 20 yards total offense difference, UWSP had 4 more first downs, NCC's passing was bad, but UWSP's rushing was bad, penalties were mostly even, UWSP dominated time of possession, turnovers were mundane. The only stat that looks remotely fluky or out of place is third downs, where NCC stunk up the joint.

There is nothing to latch on to, other than past results, that makes you wonder if this is a huge fluke win. In that case, can you say USWP would lose 3 of the next 4 they played against NCC? Again, throwing past history and expectations out, it's really hard to make that call based on what actually happened on game day. Or at least as far as the stats can show.


27
South Region football / Re: Southern Athletic Association
« on: September 29, 2014, 12:03:31 pm »
I'm planning to be at the Sewanee -- BSC game this weekend so long as the weather is good. Planning to get there early so I can park the motorhome up on the hill overlooking the field. Come on by to say hi if any D3 posters are around. Should have some food on the grill and other tailgating goodies.

28
East Region football / Re: New Jersey Athletic Conference
« on: September 29, 2014, 10:56:44 am »
Hey Kean fans, how is Stefan Juste? I know he had to be helped off the field and hope that he is ok. Just checking in on the young man and pray he is ok and on the mend, let us know how he is doing, your return team was impressive. Thanks

When you lose by 66 points sometimes the other team has to scrape to find a compliment. Well done...

29
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 29, 2014, 10:06:48 am »
Bye Week Blues are gone! Silly Season is over. It's time for the real games to begin. Let's look at the teams starting from the bottom up (hey, it's the only way I can put the Generals at the top of anything right now!)

W&L is 0-3. They've played better opponents and better games each week, but losses to Averett (1-3) and Sewanee (1-3) don't look good while the loss to Centre (4-0) seems to be a very dim bright spot. W&L gave up the fewest points to Centre of any opponent yet and scored the most. The bad news, both Averett and Sewanee have been handled by other ODAC teams. Traveling to Guilford and then home for HSC and RMC isn't exactly the way to get a running start at the ODAC season. One lesson W&L should take? Don't play teams from towns named Danville!

Catholic is 2-1. Why are they down here with the Generals? They lost to McDaniel (1-3) and beat Apprentice and putrid Anna Maria. There really isn't much to hang your hat on here. Opening the ODAC home for HSC and at RMC isn't going to help much either.

Shenandoah is 2-1. Surely they deserve better? Well, wins over Gallaudet (0-2) and Ferrum (0-3) surround a loss to Frostburg State (2-2). There is a lot left to prove and opening the ODAC at Bridgewater should give them a chance to start on the right foot.

E&H is 3-0. Top of the conference? Not exactly. E&H is almost ALWAYS 3-0 at this point. Then it seems to all fall apart. Wins over Ferrum (0-3), Maryville (2-2), and Sewanee (1-3) aren't real conclusive. Opening the ODAC with RMC could be interesting as both teams took out Sewanee by a similar score.

Bridgewater is 3-0. How can they be smack in the middle? Gettysburg (2-2) may turn out to be a good road win for the Eagles, but Greensboro (1-2) and Apprentice don't frighten anyone in the ODAC. Well, maybe the Generals right now. Home for Shenandoah and E&H as the ODAC starts will give the Eagles a good shot to keep their winning ways.

RMC is 2-1. They got blown out by JHU (4-0), the only team the Blue Jays have destroyed so far in what was looking like an off year until this past weekend. Comfortable wins over Averett and Sewanee only look intimidating if you are the Generals. RMC should find out quickly where they belong in the ODAC, opening at E&H, home for Catholic, and back on the road for W&L. Losing any of those games wouldn't be shocking in the ODAC, but it shouldn't happen.

Guilford at 3-0 is rolling into the ODAC season. As expected they buried Greensboro (1-2), unexpectedly creamed Methodist (2-2), and made it look harder than it needed to be against SVa (0-3). Still, 3-0 at this point was expected and the Quakers should have ODAC opponents W&L, Shenandoah, and Bridgewater very concerned.

HSC is 2-1 and holding on to my top spot. Sure they weren't quite as good as Wabash (3-0), but the Bash haven't slowed down and are looking like serious contenders for December action. Beating CNU (2-2) also has some more chops now that the Captains are winning a schizophrenic USASC. Blowing out CGA (2-2) was expected and the Tigers nicely obliged. Opening at Catholic, at W&L, home for E&H, at Shenandoah, and at Bridgewater gives the Tigers all the running start they need. Lots of road games, but it's against what should be the less capable part of the ODAC. The two big games, Guilford and RMC, are both at Everett.

30
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 29, 2014, 09:22:41 am »
Johns Hopkins beat Muhlenberg, which many thought could upset the Blue Jays.

I was all in on this last week. Killed me in my ODAC pick'em, and when I did my South Region Fan Poll there was a lot of egg to wipe off. Really thought JHU was beatable at Muhlenberg with the Muhles bringing back almost their entire team and killing teams leading up to the game. Just goes to show how hard that last step can be...

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 119