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Messages - jknezek

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16
South Region football / Re: South Region Fan Poll
« on: September 26, 2016, 12:21:10 pm »
I didn't even rearrange the deck chairs this week. Lots of byes and nothing really unexpected happened, so my poll seems stale. CWRU is the only one I'm thinking I'm missing a spot for, but I didn't have anyone I wanted to kick down either.

17
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 National Championship Contenders
« on: September 26, 2016, 10:55:50 am »
As a W&L alum I think you have them too high. Yes they have 2 good wins, and yes Oneonta is looking better because they have picked up the pace. But W&L hasn't been there. It's pretty rare for a team to come from nowhere and push through that tournament grind. Had they gotten past the Fords last year and gotten a little run, I'd be more on board.

Either way, I think we'll get a good view in a few weeks when Messiah and Lynchburg come to town in the same week. That is the kind of competition they'd need to beat a few games in a row to make a tournament run. Beating up on Shenandoah isn't worth much other than it shows W&L can do what they are supposed to do, and they have a long ODAC schedule. Very few of the ODAC teams qualify as an "acceptable blemish" for a good team, and yet we all know there are days the ball just won't go in the net.

We'll see. I'm proud of them. Can't remember the kind of wins we've had early this year. Huge fan of Coach Singleton who has breathed serious strength into a program that spent a long time content in simply being ODAC good.

18
East Region football / Re: FB: Empire 8
« on: September 26, 2016, 10:44:26 am »
Sort of off topic but still about the top 25 - Johns Hopkins.  I feel like that team is so consistently overrated.  Largely because they play in a weak conference and never lose in it.  But once they are in the playoffs you can bet the house they aren't making it out of the second round of the playoffs, that's if they even manage to escape the 1st.  They're currently ranked 9th.  Let's watch in anticipation to see what becomes of them this year.  I'm going to go ahead and guess more of the same. 

Also, I was wondering if Wheaton would drop and they did.  I watched them play Elmhurst yesterday since Elmhurst and Fisher had a common opponent in Olivet.  Olivet beat Elmhurst 27-13.  Wheaton beat them 10-6 in a game that was tight throughout.  Comparing scores is always kind of a pointless exercise (look at ONU vs Utica, Heidelberg vs Cortland, Heidelberg vs ONU and then Cortland vs Utica as a prime example of why)...but let's just say I was expecting more out of Wheaton than that.  I think the pollsters got that one right.

Playing a little devil's advocate here. Johns Hopkins has lost to Wesley, Hobart (Who beat Ithaca that same year), Wesley, Mount Union, and St. John Fisher, respectively over the last five year's. Each of those teams Hopkins loss to were at least Top 8 teams in the country. Having them rank around 9-11 range is adequate for them. One think, I would like to see Johns Hopkins do is schedule tougher out of conference games (but I believe that is a conference move). I didn't like his responses to Pat's questions earlier in the year, but I believe they have a good program and can easily compete in any of the "East Region" conferences and win.

JHU has one non-conf game. This year they used it on a W&L team coming off a 10-0 season and ranked in the top 25. W&L has under performed so far this season for sure, but it's hard to fault JHU's one OOC game choice. I realize some of this is luck, but JHU will travel to W&L next year, then take on R-MC in a home and home the following 2 years. R-MC appears to be on an upswing, but who knows where they will be in 2 years. And that's part of the problem with OOC scheduling, especially when you only have 1 game to use.

Further, JHU is about the southern most team in their conference. If they want to recruit the VA area, they need to play a game out that way. Using their OOC in that direction is the only option, and there aren't any elite level ODAC/USASAC schools on a consistent basis. For example, scheduling H-SC, which JHU has done in the past, seems like a good idea, but if you look at them this year it would have been a very unlucky choice.

We all know Johns Hopkins recruits nationally, they choose to schedule those select institutions. They have about 5 guys from VA, if that. As the coach mentioned, Johns Hopkins priority is to win its conference and as a reward, play in the national playoff. That first game is nothing but a glorified pre-season game for them. IMHO, I do think its unfortunate for them not to look for a top notch game against "better opponents", but if they were to lose that OOC game and then lose a conference game, its a long shot for a CC team to join as an at-large (except for the anomaly a few years ago with Muhlenberg).

I can't imagine any coach would say anything else. Isn't it always the priority to win the conference? And OOC games are essentially non-conf. If you only have one, it is doubly so. That's the huge benefit of the AQ. I'm not sure I see your point.

19
East Region football / Re: FB: Empire 8
« on: September 26, 2016, 09:48:21 am »
Sort of off topic but still about the top 25 - Johns Hopkins.  I feel like that team is so consistently overrated.  Largely because they play in a weak conference and never lose in it.  But once they are in the playoffs you can bet the house they aren't making it out of the second round of the playoffs, that's if they even manage to escape the 1st.  They're currently ranked 9th.  Let's watch in anticipation to see what becomes of them this year.  I'm going to go ahead and guess more of the same. 

Also, I was wondering if Wheaton would drop and they did.  I watched them play Elmhurst yesterday since Elmhurst and Fisher had a common opponent in Olivet.  Olivet beat Elmhurst 27-13.  Wheaton beat them 10-6 in a game that was tight throughout.  Comparing scores is always kind of a pointless exercise (look at ONU vs Utica, Heidelberg vs Cortland, Heidelberg vs ONU and then Cortland vs Utica as a prime example of why)...but let's just say I was expecting more out of Wheaton than that.  I think the pollsters got that one right.

Playing a little devil's advocate here. Johns Hopkins has lost to Wesley, Hobart (Who beat Ithaca that same year), Wesley, Mount Union, and St. John Fisher, respectively over the last five year's. Each of those teams Hopkins loss to were at least Top 8 teams in the country. Having them rank around 9-11 range is adequate for them. One think, I would like to see Johns Hopkins do is schedule tougher out of conference games (but I believe that is a conference move). I didn't like his responses to Pat's questions earlier in the year, but I believe they have a good program and can easily compete in any of the "East Region" conferences and win.

JHU has one non-conf game. This year they used it on a W&L team coming off a 10-0 season and ranked in the top 25. W&L has under performed so far this season for sure, but it's hard to fault JHU's one OOC game choice. I realize some of this is luck, but JHU will travel to W&L next year, then take on R-MC in a home and home the following 2 years. R-MC appears to be on an upswing, but who knows where they will be in 2 years. And that's part of the problem with OOC scheduling, especially when you only have 1 game to use.

Further, JHU is about the southern most team in their conference. If they want to recruit the VA area, they need to play a game out that way. Using their OOC in that direction is the only option, and there aren't any elite level ODAC/USASAC schools on a consistent basis. For example, scheduling H-SC, which JHU has done in the past, seems like a good idea, but if you look at them this year it would have been a very unlucky choice.

20
South Region football / Re: FB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference
« on: September 21, 2016, 04:38:13 pm »
Plus with Chicago and Washington leaving, they needed 2 teams for the conference to keep its automatic bid.

I can't imagine why. They have 7. Given the current access ratio they don't need any more teams to keep the AQ.

Berry
Birmingham-Southern
Centre
Hendrix
Millsaps
Rhodes
Sewanee

21
South Region football / Re: FB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference
« on: September 21, 2016, 03:47:03 pm »
I think Oglethorpe dropped the ball. They needed to re-instate football, along with Berry and Hendrix, and Trinity and Austin would have been sunk. Not sure what happened, but the Petrals were the last piece. That being said, it is only full-circle for football. The SAA schools still eliminated the TX trips in the other sports, so if travel was the issue they got most of what they wanted. I'm guessing they let the last two SCAC members back in for football mostly to simplify scheduling. Some of these schools were taking long OOC trips anyway, so why not help out their former members instead and make their own schedules a little more certain.

22
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 21, 2016, 01:13:06 pm »
I really don't think it's that big of a deal. Playing in Salem was stupid, on both team's part. Why pay to rent the field, have fewer supporters, and lose the campus atmosphere? All so you can play on the same field as the Stagg? Kind of pointless to me. But, I don't think it's a huge deal that Ferrum isn't coming to H-SC. Both games played were neutral site, shading toward the other's campus. Regardless of whether it was meant to be that way or not, that's pretty much what happened and hardly unfair in the end. ODAC teams will have big schedule issues starting next year. Losing Ferrum from that week 3 spot isn't an issue because somehow H-SC got gypped of a home game, it's an issue because filling week 3, and the 4th OOC, is going to be a bear.

I don't often envy the USASAC, but I do envy them their 8 conference games. To me that's perfect for a 10 game schedule. The two OOCs help with SOS and getting ready, and the 8 conference games provide a large amount of stability and ease of scheduling.
My problem with the 8 conference games is that someone may have an off-week in the schedule when they may not want it.

Week 9?  Week10?  Week 11?

Could be. But with 9 schools, and the ODAC down to 7, maybe the ODAC and USASAC pair up to fill a lot of those later in the season bye dates. Hopefully, anyway. But I'd still rather have 8 conference games, and need 2 OOC, than have 6 conference games and need 4 OOC. To me, 2 or 3 OOC games is the right balance. 2 if you are in a harder geography, like many of the USASAC, 3 if you are in a high density area.

23
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 South Atlantic
« on: September 20, 2016, 02:27:14 pm »
Interesting that W&L scheduled Va Wes and Lynchburg as OOC games. I really don't like the ODAC system this year. Wish they would just schedule the full round robin, as we've done in the past, even though it cuts into some of the OOC games. Last year we played 11 conference games, this year they cut it to 9. W&L scheduled the missing 2 as OOC games anyway, Va Wes and Lynchburg.

Was this simply a matter of wanting more OOC games and more scheduling flexibility. Anyone know?

24
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 20, 2016, 11:25:54 am »
I really don't think it's that big of a deal. Playing in Salem was stupid, on both team's part. Why pay to rent the field, have fewer supporters, and lose the campus atmosphere? All so you can play on the same field as the Stagg? Kind of pointless to me. But, I don't think it's a huge deal that Ferrum isn't coming to H-SC. Both games played were neutral site, shading toward the other's campus. Regardless of whether it was meant to be that way or not, that's pretty much what happened and hardly unfair in the end. ODAC teams will have big schedule issues starting next year. Losing Ferrum from that week 3 spot isn't an issue because somehow H-SC got gypped of a home game, it's an issue because filling week 3, and the 4th OOC, is going to be a bear.

I don't often envy the USASAC, but I do envy them their 8 conference games. To me that's perfect for a 10 game schedule. The two OOCs help with SOS and getting ready, and the 8 conference games provide a large amount of stability and ease of scheduling.

25
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
« on: September 20, 2016, 11:16:44 am »
Just playing devil's advocate here:

MASSEY:

1) Amherst  SOS 10
2) Chicago   SOS 22
3) Trinity     SOS 33
4) Rowan     SOS 39
5) Kenyon    SOS 90

Yes. But Amherst also played only 4 games. If you look at Rowan's first 4 games, they played a Massey team average of 503 versus Amherst's average of 595. Now that's straight up, not accounting for home/away. But, Rowan's first 4 games were a tougher gauntlet, according to Massey, strictly by opponent. Then it falls off for Rowan, as they drop to a 708 average over 7 games.

Not entirely sure how much difference the home/away makes in Massey's formula, too lazy to see if he says, but applying the NCAA multiples you'd end up with Amherst = 595/1.25 476 (all road) and Rowan with a 453 (Lyco and Staten Island on the road, W&L and Oneonta St at home). So by that measure you'd say Rowan had it marginally tougher and didn't take a blemish.

Going forward it won't be hard for Amherst to catch up, as their schedule games 5,6, and 7 are much tougher than Rowan's were. But games 8-14 for Rowan are significantly harder than 8-14 for Amherst as Massey currently calculates.

Regardless, if Rowan keeps winning they should keep that 1 spot. If they accumulate a blemish, it will depend on what teams around them do, but you can't say Rowan hasn't fought for that spot and played quality opponents. If you are an Amherst fan and don't like that your team isn't 1, the simply solution is not to get a blemish...

26
South Region football / Re: South Region Fan Poll
« on: September 20, 2016, 09:29:14 am »
Centre winning at Wash U was big for me. I liked Wash U after winning at CMU. I'm not sold on Randolph Macon. We've seen ODAC teams play really uninspiring OOC schedules and roll and then get rolled in conference. Bridgewater made a habit of it for years. Guilford hasn't really played anyone either, but Coach R has worked wonders with that program and I don't think they drop too much from last year. Still, they look like the cream of the conference right now.

ETBU did good things last year and brought a lot back. TLU has proved disappointing, which cheapens the value of that win, but TLU will get a chance to show what they've got. Hendrix/Berry is kind of six in one, half dozen in another for me right now. Conf champ last year gets the benefit of the doubt.

27
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
« on: September 20, 2016, 09:00:03 am »
So you just ignore the blemish because they won last year? That doesn't seem right. If they were expected to win, and didn't, then they drop provided other teams did what they were supposed to do against quality opposition. It makes no sense to freeze a team in place based on last year. You go by results this year. And their result wasn't bad of course, but it wasn't what was expected of the No. 1 team.

It's not like they fell off a cliff. They dropped to third because in 4 games they took a blemish whereas in 7 games against good competition Rowan has not taken a blemish. I get road versus home, but still, there aren't too many polls in any sport where the No 1 team can lose or tie and hold off the dogs from below. Amherst will have plenty of chances to regain that top spot. As you pointed out they have a good schedule in the next 2 weeks. But Rowan has already played and won against good teams, Amherst doesn't get credit for games that they have yet to play and win, especially when they went to a good opponent and didn't win.

And if all that doesn't sway you, think about this. Rowan has a win against #9 W&L. I get it was at home, but that's a better result, right now, than a tie away against Middlebury. So no blemishes, a better signature win, and more games played. Hard to get too hot under the collar objectively.

28
South Region football / Re: South Region Fan Poll
« on: September 20, 2016, 08:51:09 am »
This was me. I don't have a problem identifying who I voted for. It's all for fun. Someone takes issue that's just good for discussion.

1) UMHB
2) JHU
3) HSU
4) TMC
5) ETBU
6) Huntingdon
7) Centre
8) W&J
9) Guilford
10) Hendrix

29
East Region football / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 19, 2016, 03:25:37 pm »
Hey PAC....

The PAC is overstuffed, but they really are in all the wrong spots for the LL as far as PA goes. Same problem the ODAC has right now, there just isn't a ready made viable alternative, but at least the ODAC holds on to their AQ once Catholic leaves. Maybe we will see an LL/ODAC challenge as the schools get desperate to fill their OOC schedules.

30
South Region football / Re: FB: Southern Athletic Association
« on: September 19, 2016, 03:15:19 pm »
Sewanee is 0-3 with scores of 21-17, 21-17, and 21-16. That's rough.

What I saw from them this year looked better than what I've seen in the past. First Year QB looks good but he took a lot of hard shots against W&L. The lines looked better. Especially defensive line. I think someone could throw on them easier than run, but hard to tell from W&L game. Regardless, they may take lumps this year but it seems like they have some pieces to build around going forward.

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