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Messages - jknezek

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16
North Region football / Re: Ohio Athletic Conference
« on: October 23, 2014, 11:54:56 am »


On a lesser level (i.e. not "challenging for national prominence" but merely examples of 1-2 elite individuals being the difference), a few teams that I saw personally include the 2006 Carnegie Mellon and then 2007-09 Case Western teams.  The bulk of 2006 Carnegie Mellon's roster was likely not much different than the teams that came before or after it, but in 2006 they had the program's 1st and 3rd all-time leading rushers in the same backfield.  Take those two dudes off the team, and instead of 11-1/playoffs they're back to the same 5-5ish teams that came before and after.  Ditto Case Western and Dan Whalen, who lifted Case from a 5-5ish program to three straight playoff appearances, after which they returned to the same .500-ish level within a few seasons.  Those are just examples I remember offhand, no doubt people more familiar with the various leagues can list some other similar individual/team examples.  Scottie Williams at Elmhurst is another that comes to mind.  2012 Elmhurst, with Williams running the ball, goes 10-2 and gives a legitimate challenge to Stagg Bowl finalist UST.  The Elmhurst teams before/after that were basically .500 teams.  In Division III, perhaps even moreso than Division I, the difference between being a middle-of-the-pack team and a fringe-level Top 25 team often seems to be the presence of one or two truly elite individuals.  Obviously you still need the roster of supporting players around that guy, but I pretty firmly believe that the "regular guys" on many Division III teams are pretty similar. 

What seems to set UWW and Mount (and to a slightly lesser extent UMHB, Wesley, and Linfield) apart is that they have the overall roster depth that 1) the next star-in-waiting is always there and 2) even when he isn't, the rest of their "regular guys" are so good that the team doesn't really drop off much.  Most good-but-not-great D3 teams seem to lose a guy of that caliber and don't have the next superstar lined up; they have a team full of "guys" just like they had before the superstar arrived.

Heinsohn at W&L was another great example. He made that triple option go from respectable to devastating. Top 4 in the Gagliardi behind Williams in 2012 as well. Two out of his 3 impact years (played as a frosh, but not like he did later on) W&L won the ODAC. Since then the Generals are struggling to rebuild.

Sometimes in these conferences that are tight, that don't have the behemoth program, it is just that 1 guy. Probably a lot more examples if we looked.

17
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 23, 2014, 10:02:01 am »
Jk

How do you see the odac playing out this week ?

It's actually a really interesting week.

W&L at Bridgewater has my attention. Bridgewater has dropped 2 straight and they have that "here we go again" look to them. Good run through non-conf and bad conference performance. However, W&L has always struggled at Bridgewater, they haven't looked good on the road this year, and while last week was a good step, it's not like they dominated anyone. I think Bridgewater wins by 3-7 points at home.

E&H hosts Catholic. Catholic is not good. E&H needs to bounce back. What better chance is there? Especially at Selfie. E&H wins by 17-20 points.

RMC hosting Guilford. Pivotal game. Guilford has not looked good on the road. They need to get that straightened out. The Quakers have more talent, butRMC has got to be unhappy at giving the Generals their first W. This smells like a close game to me. Guilford by 3.

Shenandoah hosting H-SC. H-SC has to be mad about last year. They are an upperclass laden team that should know they can't mess around in Winchester. Shenandoah is getting better each year and I have a lot of respect for Coach Yoder, but he is outgunned in this game. Shenandoah should be riding a two game high, especially the big win over Guilford giving the Hornets a spring in their step, but those two wins are a bit fishy. Guilford never showed and Catholic is Catholic. I think H-SC wins by at least 14.

18
Men's soccer / Re: NCAA South Atlantic Region
« on: October 23, 2014, 09:15:15 am »
The weakness of the bottom-half of the ODAC is going to hurt Roanoke.  The way these rankings are formulated, a win will drop them in the rankings.  Only way I see us making the tourney is by winning the ODAC tournament.  An at large seems impossible if the NCAA rankings are the only ones taken into account.

Win and you're in. That's the only guarantee. The ODAC isn't a power soccer conference right now so there isn't going to be a reputation affect. That limits the possibility of being a "second chance" school.

19
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 23, 2014, 09:04:13 am »
Thank you, narch, for looking up the actual numbers.  +1  You are the best non-QB poster in d3 who actually looks up the stats.

I do concede opening with Greensboro at home in 2014 is not the same as opening at Wabash, but MU and CNU appear to fairly evenly matched as evidenced by their classic OT game.   And CCA ... I'm confident several QB/WR tandems could score big stats against the Bears.

With all this said, the proof is on the field head-to-head ... and the sad truth is HSC has beaten my alma mater 14 years in a row.  HSC is the better team until someone else proves they can match up and play.
I think it's laughable that someone must have taken offense to this.  I don't think I could have been more fair and balanced.  Nance is great ... I've seen him play, but is he the best?  Others with a broader knowledge of D3 than me seem to think not.

Someone dinged you for that? That's hilarious. I think discussions about Nance over the last 18+ months have driven more negatives for me than anything else. Amusing how protective people get. And I really haven't seen anyone say anything but good things, but for some people there simply aren't enough platitudes you can give him...

Either way, here's a +K for you Hasa...
Thanks, jknezek.  It was either this message or the one where I thanked hoopstermom for parking advice at RMC.  lol

Oh, well.... If it was the parking advice I'm taking my +k back. That deserved the ding!    ;D

20
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 23, 2014, 08:48:24 am »
making my annual trip to Bridgewater this weekend for their homecoming.  I get to see W&L for the first time.  I think it will be a good game as W&L looks to be improving each week and Bridgewater has played pretty well so far.  Always enjoy the trip as the area is very nice and my friends at Bridgewater are even better.  The weather should be nice too.

Not really the year I want you seeing my Generals, but such is life. They are improving, but they have been really bad on the road. Hopefully last week gave them a little confidence to see out the season. Keep the word "young" in the back of your head while you watch!

21
Men's soccer / Re: NCAA South Atlantic Region
« on: October 22, 2014, 04:23:00 pm »
Wow! Compare that to NSCAA:

1.     Christopher Newport University
2   Salisbury University
3   Roanoke College
4   Emory University
5   Montclair State University
6   Rutgers University-Newark
7   Birmingham-Southern College

What's used for NCAA tournament seeding, hosting, etc.?

The Regional Rankings are used. All other polls are just for fun...

22
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 22, 2014, 02:37:08 pm »
Thank you, narch, for looking up the actual numbers.  +1  You are the best non-QB poster in d3 who actually looks up the stats.

I do concede opening with Greensboro at home in 2014 is not the same as opening at Wabash, but MU and CNU appear to fairly evenly matched as evidenced by their classic OT game.   And CCA ... I'm confident several QB/WR tandems could score big stats against the Bears.

With all this said, the proof is on the field head-to-head ... and the sad truth is HSC has beaten my alma mater 14 years in a row.  HSC is the better team until someone else proves they can match up and play.
I think it's laughable that someone must have taken offense to this.  I don't think I could have been more fair and balanced.  Nance is great ... I've seen him play, but is he the best?  Others with a broader knowledge of D3 than me seem to think not.

Someone dinged you for that? That's hilarious. I think discussions about Nance over the last 18+ months have driven more negatives for me than anything else. Amusing how protective people get. And I really haven't seen anyone say anything but good things, but for some people there simply aren't enough platitudes you can give him...

Either way, here's a +K for you Hasa...

23
General football / Re: Pool C -- 2014
« on: October 22, 2014, 10:27:00 am »
Mark Emmert visited UChicago yesterday when he was in town. I should have asked him when I met him. Maybe he would have known the status of the MASCAC.

I would be interested if he knew what the MASCAC was without prompting...

24
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 22, 2014, 08:46:21 am »
Sorry narch didn't mean to hurt your feelings about your QB. I never meant to slight Reber I just stated my opinion.  I'm sure all the coaches in the ODAC know how good Nance makes HSC . You seem to be consumed with stats and that is a good indicator but too many variables are in stats only to say whose better. A lot of the D3 offenses post crazy offensive stats but Favret seems to be protective of Nance until the Conference heats up.   I've seen a lot of D3 QB's and personally I think Nance is a notch above. You rarely see  his size , strength , speed , arm strength and most importantly Wins in a D3 QB. Certainly no disrespect to Reber. IMO if Nance were playing for Mt Union Burke would be his backup. But , ...... we will never know.
[/b]

This is what happens when you drink and post. Don't let it happen to you! ;D


+K. hilarious

25
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 21, 2014, 10:13:40 pm »
IMO if Nance were playing for Mt Union Burke would be his backup. But , ...... we will never know.

Bold. Very bold. Considering Burke was the First Team AA last year and preseason first team AA and he is killing the OAC and living up to the hype this year, that is a bold, bold statement.

26
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 21, 2014, 04:03:54 pm »
I think it's important to use total offense rather than passing yards when looking at a quarterback's numbers.

Maybe, but I'm not a big fan. I prefer to look at passing and rushing yards by the QB. I understand the argument for total offense, but I've never really thought of it as the primary stat for comparing QBs. For comparing offenses? Absolutely, but QBs are trickier as is any single player stats in a team game.

If I was really being picky I'd say when comparing QBs I prefer yards per attempt for both passing and rushing. And when I occasionally play fantasy football I look for passing stats like yards before first contact and, although rarely useful at the pro level, rushing stats like yards after first contact for a QB. But that is really getting feisty and rarely available at the D3 level.

Lots of ways to dice the numbers. Any way I've looked at them, Nance comes out looking very, very good. But not significantly better than the other top echelon D3 QBs. Of course being in that top echelon is ridiculously good to begin with.

27
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 21, 2014, 03:01:15 pm »
I will be interested to see if Nance comes up in the Gagliardi talk, or where he falls in All-America status at the end of the season. While the Gagliardi isn't exactly purely performance based, if you are the best QB in the country, or close to it, you are going to be seriously considered. Same thing with the All-America teams.

We can only play the teams in front of us, and the ODAC just doesn't have that top tier rep. So Nance's big chance to make a national splash came week 1. 24-37, 247 yards, 2 tds, 2 ints, -40 yards rushing (yeah, the sacks were UGLY) was pretty good, but it just isn't going to make anyone's jaw drop. On the other hand, it's the best anyone has done, BY FAR, against Wabash so far this season. Week 2 would also be a good OOC test, and 23-31, 204 yards, 4 tds, 1 int, 60 yards rushing looks efficient but also not jaw dropping. Also 3 teams already this season dropped more points on CNU than HSC did. Not all of that is Nance's responsibility of course.

Bottom line? Nance is good. I think he's best in the conference followed by Pawlowski, whose numbers are aided by a significantly softer OOC schedule than the Tigers. But I wouldn't crown him the best in D3. He might be the best in the South, but even there I see some significant competition. I expect him to make an All America team. I very much doubt it will be first team national All American.

28
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 20, 2014, 03:47:58 pm »
GC2005

Best of luck and congrats !!!

I've missed one HSC game since my son has been playing and that was due to a family wedding, so I understand but don't understand why a football fan would plan an October wedding !!!!

I was a groomsman in a family wedding this weekend. I compromised with my wife. She could have my phone during the ceremony so I wasn't tempted to sneak peeks, but I got to have it during the reception. I also agreed to do all the dancing she wanted (less gimmicky and irritating things like the macarena) so long as after the wedding was over my brother in law and I could find a bar to watch football until midnight.

I won't say it was a good compromise, but since we were both marginally unhappy I think it was as good as we were going to get. Weddings during football season are not good...

29
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 20, 2014, 02:48:32 pm »
Last year GC was 4-0 in the ODAC with 3 games to play. They lost 2 of those games. Point is at 3-0 HSC has only locked up a .500 season. Their are a lot of games to be played.

  Not to be picky, but at 3-0 HSC has only locked up a 3 win season. They could still lose their last four games and finish 3-4, although I very strongly doubt that would happen.

We're all having fun with the nitpicking lately. CUA and CAU, CMR's math (yep, that was me with an assist from Hasa), and now HSCTiger's math. It's all in good fun...

30
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: October 20, 2014, 09:35:57 am »
Nice to see the Generals get a win. Wish I could have seen the game, but I was stuck at a wedding. I thought the team might be maturing, and I think they will be competitive with everyone going forward. We will see. At Bridgewater isn't a good omen. Always a bad place for W&L.
Bridgewater is a good team ... not great ... but very solid.  Even at 4-2 (1-2), I will not be surpised if they still go 4-3 in the ODAC.

Going 4-3 in the ODAC?  Who are they playing in the seventh game?   ;)

Well, Bridgewater's seventh conference game is Catholic the last week of the season. Are they not going to play one? The ODAC has 8 football members and a seven game conference season since Shenandoah joined.

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