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Messages - jknezek

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16
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: July 23, 2017, 12:31:55 pm »
Well there you go. The best game they've played in the tournament so far. Did Costa Rica squander some chances? Absolutely, but we squandered a few as well, including Morris in the first 30 seconds. Scoring that fast would have changed the game. Regardless, the team made the finals, as we should in the Gold Cup. We also have won our last 3 games 7-0 combined, which is interesting considering how ragged the defense has been. Last night was much better. Gonzalez and Besler at least look like they can work together, and Bradley marshalling in front of them definitely helps.

It's still not a very good US team, but they are winning and that is what matters. I assume we'll face Mexico in the finals, though their C team hasn't really been much prettier than ours. But Jamaica is capable of pulling an upset as well. There speed is always dangerous on a counter. Hopefully the US will finish the tournament strong. For all our complaining, there isn't much more we can ask than that. Being pretty isn't as important as winning at that the ultimate levels.

17
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: July 20, 2017, 09:37:16 am »
Uggh. The defense. I don't see what Arena sees in Morrow and Hedges. I just don't get it. Lichaj looked lost at times defensively, though better going forward. Frankly the whole back line beside Gonzalez looked like they'd never played defense before, and even Gonzalez seemed to have trouble communicating with the rest of the line making him indecisive.

I thought Arriola was OK last night. Better than Zardes who seems to have bricks where his feet are supposed to be. I liked Nagbe and Bradley together. That seemed like one of the few things that worked.

The refs were pathetic. Zardes was onside, though having goals called back for that hardly seems like an oddity these days. El Salvador should have been playing with 8 by the end of the game. Ridiculously dirty and the Canadian ref was much too timid about throwing cards until midway through the second half.

Regardless, the Americans need to get some practice in how to play as a team. That way they aren't screwing up simple passes and positioning because they don't know where each other are going to be or want each other to be. There was some seriously sad teamwork last night.

On the upside, through to the next round. We've scored 9 goals and let in 3, none in the last 2 games. Pretty sure a lot of that goal differential is opponent incompetence, but the ratio stands. Win the group, check, win the trap game, check, win the two games against quality opponents? We will see.

18
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 04:22:30 pm »
We can all go laugh about this later but I did an interesting exercise. I just looked at the conference schedule and realized how big home and away could be if we have a lot of parity this year.


Home vs Away games
RMC  4 (SU, E&H, W&L, H-SC)  2  (BC, GC)
SU     3 (E&H, BC, W&L),           3 (RMC, GC, HSC)
W&L   2 (GC, BC),                     4 (E&H, HSC, RMC, SU)
E&H   3 (W&L, BC, HSC),           3 (SU, RMC, GC)
BC     2 (RMC, GC),                   4 (HSC, SU, E&H, W&L)
HSC   3 (BC, W&L, SU),             3 (GC, E&H, RMC)
GC    4 (HSC, SU, RMC, E&H)    2 (W&L, BC)


What does this mean? I'm downgrading W&L's and BC's chances, upgrading RMCs, and a whole lot depends on how good GC is this season. RMC having 4 home games is huge. Having them against 2 or 3 of the teams I think could be in the top half of the standings is even better. Unless GC surprises, RMC looks like going to BC is their only tough road game. Huge, huge advantage.

BC has the opposite problem. They get RMC at home, a chance to prove themselves, but road trips to SU, E&H, and W&L, plus HSC, could be trying. GC at home is a variable.

If you consider my three teams as RMC, SU, and E&H as challengers, GC gets them all at home. Plus HSC. Trips to W&L and BC might be challenging. Really makes GC the wildcard.

Teams having 4 home games, and others having 2 conference home games, is one more reason I'm looking forward to Ferrum joining the conference.

Having looked at this, I'm going to give RMC a decent chance at going 5-1 in conference.

19
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 03:23:31 pm »
This is probably the toughest year I can remember. It doesn't really feel like any school has too many stars coming back. RMC and W&L lose a lot. I know that.

I am going to go out on a limb and say Shenandoah will not be the worst team in the league this season. I think they will be in the top 4 actually. Bauserman is a good qb and he's coming back for his jr season. Losing Delaney hurts, but their stud receiver also comes back. Last year the threat of Delaney opened up the passing game for Bauserman. I think Bauserman is good enough this year that the threat of his arm and Ashwell running patterns will be enough to open up the running game for whoever replaces Delaney. Defensively.... eh, not sure. But the offense should win them a few games.

With Hoy and Frederick back I think RMC's running game will be good. They bring back Castle on the O line as well. They graduate a lot, but that's a good enough base for the offense if its similar to what they ran last year. I think the defense will be good again. Maybe not as good as last year as they lose 4 first team and 2 second team All-Odac selections, but good enough though they maybe won't be able to rely on it quite so much.

W&L needs to rebuild the offense. Don't get me wrong, they have a lot of guys that have played and played well in spots, but all the big producers from last year basically graduated. One first team All-Odac O lineman back. Defensively I think W&L will be ok. They lose Dyson and Delk, all-ODAC guys, but a lot comes back. Freeman and Garrison should be a good tandem leading the DB/LB areas respectively.

I feel like BC and E&H will be bringing back a lot. I think BC is a legit threat to win the conference this year, just a gut feeling based on how they ended the season, and so is E&H if you don't have my tendency to see them as head cases.

I have no idea on Guilford. Not one clue. I have a ton of faith in Coach R. What he did rebuilding that program was amazing. Last year was ugly. Coach R showed he can take young guys and coach them through a lot of playing time to be really, really good. The question is can he transform the guys that have been waiting a turn to be ready to be starters. Last year didn't look so good, and sometimes coaches need to get that concept figured out. I think he will, but I have no idea what Guilford has.

HSC -- no bloody clue. The last 3 years have had a trend that isn't pretty. I didn't watch a lot of the Tigers last year except for the W&L game, and that was pitiful. 3 of the last 5 seasons have been 3 or more losses, something that only happened in the very first rebuilding years of Coach Favret's reign. Coach Favret hasn't forgotten how to coach, but something has happened to the talent level relative to the rest of the ODAC. I just don't know if that can be corrected in one off season.

I also have a feeling that this isn't a season of a 6-0 team and an 0-6 team and it's pretty clear in the middle. This seems more of a nasty ODAC muddle at this point. In other words, I'm thinking more 2008 or 2014 than 2016 or 2011.

20
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 02:18:49 pm »
Well this has been fun. I mean, what else do we have to discuss in mid July? I like all the viewpoints and I think really we are separated by degrees. Terms like "big upset", "huge upset" and "upset" just aren't quantified or at least don't have an agreed definition. I think that almost all of us will agree that H-SC beating UWP is an upset. I'm not going to touch on W&L vs JHU. There is no doubt that would be an upset.

App State beating Michigan was an upset. UWW losing to Buff State was an upset. Upsets happen. Here's hoping our ODAC teams pull off a few when they face Huntingdon, JHU, UWP and TMC...

21
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 01:25:03 pm »
JK many "upsets" might turn out not to be upsets. Buster Douglas over Tyson for example. But at the moment it was shocking. Same as App v. Michigan. App was at the time of the game the two time defending national champs.  ASU had never beaten a FBS team not named Wake Forest. Michigan's tradition, 85 scholarship players vs 63, opening day of what was supposed to be a championship season for Michigan, Mike Hart, Jake Long, Chad Henne, Mario Maningham, heck there was not even a betting line on the game. Michigan scheduled App  because they ran the spread. They wanted to play the game because they thought they'd be playing for the national championship against Florida (another spread team). So even their coaches who wanted this game thought this was a good tune up. Playing Michigan on opening day in front of 109000 people certainly was daunting.  It is widely regarded as the greatest college football upset of all time. Google it. Every article I looked at agrees. Even with hindsight it is still the great upset of all time.

I know. Don't disagree with any of your info. I just think the conclusion is wrong. UM wasn't that good and App State was much better than expected. We proclaim it is the greatest upset of all time by looking at the game in a vacuum instead of in context. I don't expect that to change. I just like to point out the reality sometimes. That is 100% a week 1 phenomenon. Had the pundits gotten a look at UM for a few weeks before the game happened, they never would have been ranked that high and it wouldn't have been a "greatest of all time" type thing. Just a big upset.

And I'd take Temple over VTech in 1998 any time. It's just not as flashy. Temple was a team that ended up as 106th in the Massey Ratings beating a team that ended up 23rd. Temple only won 2 games that year. VT won 9. It was orders of magnitude larger an upset than 2 time FCS champion App State beating Michigan in week 1 of a season in which App State won another National Title and Michigan lost 4 or 5 games.

22
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 South Atlantic
« on: July 19, 2017, 12:19:43 pm »
What kind of previews? The coaches' poll usually comes out the last week in August.

23
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 12:18:04 pm »
How cool would that be if HSC upsets UWP and W&L upsets JH in the same year. obviously dreaming; if it were to happen odac would certainly earn respect. So with that in mind, I'll put you in charge of the JH upset and TigerFan in charge of the UWP upset !!!! I can't wait to see UWP play and how our guys match up/hold up.
That's good delegation...

24
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 11:26:37 am »
so I go back to my original statement; HSC over UWP would be a bigger upset than the one we are beating to death. Michigan's reputation is driving the degree of the upset and I get that; App was a very good team that could have beaten many D1 schools in 2007; I can't say the 2017 edition of HSC football is going to be great, could be good, certainly better than last year, so if they pull the upset, it will be huge in the D3 world.

I would agree it will be a really big upset. And I really hope it happens!

25
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 11:16:11 am »
Ok. Just because I got bored. At the end of the 2007 season, Massey had Michigan at 16, surrounded by TN and BC, and App State at 44, surrounded by Virginia and TCU. For example, Wisconsin shellacked Michigan that year, and they finished in the Massey ratings at 34, only 10 spots ahead of App State... How come that isn't one of the great upsets of all time?

26
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2017, 09:46:26 am »

I do. But even if you assume this happens once a year for teams 10-15, that's 5 teams, 10 games a year. 50 games a year, you are looking at 13 seasons of data, that's 650 games. So yeah, it happens about 2% of the time. Not quite fat tail territory on a distribution graph, but pretty far out there...

But the 10th-15th ranked team in the country isn't going to play 10 games a year against that level of competition (or worse).

2008 Wartburg played 7-3 St. Norbert, 7-3 Simpson, 7-3 Buena Vista, 6-4 Loras, 6-4 Central
2010 Alfred played 9-2 Fisher, 9-2 Alfred, 6-4 Ithaca, 6-4 RPI.
2011 Kean: 12-2 Wesley, 9-2 Cortland, 7-3 TCNJ, 8-2 Montclair

(I'm using 2 games over .500 as a quick and dirty line of "Better than HSC might be considered" I understand someone has to be above .500 in these conferences, but I need a shorthand way to determine "meh" vs "better than meh")

So I bet it's more frequent than the 1-in-50 you're giving. Which is to say, it's a big upset, but it's not this sort of spit take "Is this the biggest upset ever?" sort of upset. Which, even after readjusting for the rest of Michigan's season, that game probably was.

See I just disagree with this. You not only have to adjust for Michigan being an around # 20 team, but you have to adjust for App State being the FCS National Champion. The BEST team in FCS. Where would that put them in FBS? About mid-pack likely. So really you have an inside the top 60 FBS team beating about the 20th ranked FBS team. It's an upset. It's just not that big. It's only that big because everyone severely over ranked Michigan that year and no one really concerns themselves with how good App State really was.

27
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 18, 2017, 04:52:48 pm »

I don't know. I think we kind of over-rate App State/Michigan because we were so very wrong about 2007 Michigan. Sure they went 9-4 and finished around 20th in a final poll. They were good. But they weren't as good as we expected. App State, on the other hand, was the National Champion in IAA or FCS or whatever they called it then. Was it a big upset? Absolutely. But given what we knew by the end of the season, it was nowhere near the upset we thought it was the day it happened. I mean that Michigan team also got blown out by Oregon, who was a pedestrian 5-4 in PAC play, and hammered by 5-3 Big 10 Wisconsin.  That opening week #5 ranking for UM was a serious f up by the people that know football.

It is overrated, in the sense that Michigan was clearly not #5 in the country. But you still have an ultimately top 20 team losing, at home, to an FCS team. That's happened a handful of times, ever.

I guess I'm just struggling with the significance of UWP losing. We're looking at the 15th ranked team in the country, losing on the road to a mediocre/below average HSC team. Here are some recent losses by the 15th (or higher) ranked teams in the country (final rankings)

2011: #10 Kean to a 3-7 Brockport
2010: #13 Alfred to a 4-5 Rochester
2009: #11 John's Hopkins to a 6-5 Ursinus
2008: #10 Wartburg to a 5-5 Augsburg
2007: #15 TCNJ to a 5-5 Kean, #13 Capital to a 5-5 Otterbein
2004: #13 UW-L to a 5-4 UW- Stout
2003: #10 Ithaca to a 5-5 Cortland

You get my point. I'm sure there are others, I just looked at teams in that range with at least three losses. It's not this unheard of thing for a team in the 15 or so range to lose to a meh kind of team in D3 (And I'm drawing a hard line at 15)

I do. But even if you assume this happens once a year for teams 10-15, that's 5 teams, 10 games a year. 50 games a year, you are looking at 13 seasons of data, that's 650 games. So yeah, it happens about 2% of the time. Not quite fat tail territory on a distribution graph, but pretty far out there...

28
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 18, 2017, 03:51:47 pm »
and by the way, a HSC victory over UWP would be as big as App over UM.

not going to debate, but it would be upset of decade (several decades) in D3 and you know I'm hoping it happens.

Cheers

I mean, if you're going to throw out a statement that's ripe for debate on a message board and then declare you're not going to debate it....it sort of defeats the purpose. But, it's a statement I find interesting, so I'll explore it.

I struggle with comparing cross division games to D-III only matchups.

But even if UWP is better than their record because of the conference they play in, and HSC is coming off a tough year, you're still talking about a mediocre team beating a ranked (but not super highly ranked) team. We don't need to act like that's never happened. In 2003, Ithaca finished the season ranked 10th in the country and won two playoff games on the road. They also lost, at home, to a 5-5 Cortland team.

HSC beating UWP is an upset, mind you, and a big one. But it's the kind of upset we've seen elsewhere in D-III. App St/Michigan was unheard of

I don't know. I think we kind of over-rate App State/Michigan because we were so very wrong about 2007 Michigan. Sure they went 9-4 and finished around 20th in a final poll. They were good. But they weren't as good as we expected. App State, on the other hand, was the National Champion in IAA or FCS or whatever they called it then. Was it a big upset? Absolutely. But given what we knew by the end of the season, it was nowhere near the upset we thought it was the day it happened. I mean that Michigan team also got blown out by Oregon, who was a pedestrian 5-4 in PAC play, and hammered by 5-3 Big 10 Wisconsin.  That opening week #5 ranking for UM was a serious f up by the people that know football.

29
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 18, 2017, 03:40:15 pm »
jk

Not sure how you debate UPW 2017 vs. Wabash 2015, Wabash was very good, I just don't think many teams compete well vs. top 3 in WIAC, outside of the obvious elite programs. HSC was not run off the field by Wabash in 2014, 2015 was ugly but wish that matchup could become an annual event. Expenses prohibit unfortunately.

You don't really, that's why I put the last line on there. But I think those Wabash teams in 14/15 were top 10 - 15 teams at least. The '14 loss to Witt is a bit odd as Witt did not fair well in the playoffs, but sometimes even really good teams lose to good rivals, especially on the road. Regardless, those Wabash teams were about the same area in ranking, in my opinion, as I expect UWP to be. Not exactly a scientific comparison, but it's the best I can do.

I have a lot of respect for the '14 HSC team. They definitely sputtered at the end of the year, and got destroyed by Wesley, but I think a lot of that was a depth problem. They rode their stars hard that year and by the end, they were injured, tired, and toasted. But at the beginning of the season when they hosted Wabash? That was a pretty good HSC team that beat a good CNU and hammered the front half of the ODAC schedule. What happened at the end of 2014 and in 2015 and 2016 showed that they needed to ride those stars hard. There just wasn't anywhere near the same quality behind them.

30
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 18, 2017, 11:44:59 am »
Eyes closed, hopes open. The definition of fandom. We all go that route sometimes.

That's just it. As a fan why not blindly have confidence in your team until they show you otherwise?  This is a new year.  I think WL can beat JHU too. Call me crazy. Tell me a all the reasons they cannot win. I'll just keep having that blind faith.

I think it's fine to have faith. On these boards, however, I'm generally more interested in logical discussions than simple fan faith. I get that we all pull for our teams and hope for the best and cheer hard every game. But it doesn't make for very fun conversations if we all just say here about each of our teams, of course they are the best, of course they are going to win, every game regardless of the data that we can actually point to and discuss.

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