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Messages - jknezek

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31
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: July 22, 2014, 11:40:22 am »
So probably at least 1/3 of D3 80-90 teams, have had a season in the last 14 years that merited a Top 25 position toward the end of the year. That's better than I would have thought to be honest.

32
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: July 22, 2014, 11:06:47 am »
Rather than looking for teams that made it ever year, I'd be more interested in all the teams that made the top 25 at least once in the last 5 polls of any given year. Those should be the best teams of each season, and I'm curious as to how many of the 300+ D3 teams rotate through that category. My thoughts are not many...

If you're talking about how many teams have been ranked in one of the last five polls of a season for each season since 2003, I think that list is UWW, UMU, UMHB.  Full stop.  And UWW just barely made the cut- ranked in the Week 8 poll in 2012 before falling out.  2004 got Wabash, 2005 got Wheaton, and 2008 got Linfield.

No, I'm not interested in teams that were in ALL of the last 5 polls of the years, I'm thinking for teams appearing in ANY of the last 5 polls of the year. In other words, how many teams total out of the D3 universe, at the end of any of the seasons, were considered a top 25 team. It is clearly a number larger than 25, but is it less than 75? I'm really curious over the last 14 years or so, how many teams total had a season that put them in consideration for the top 7.5% or so of D3.

We know at the very top end of D3 it is extremely top heavy and consistent, does the same hold down the chain to the next two tiers. And I'm interested in polls at the end of the season, rather than the beginning, because a lot of the early polls are reputation or previous year based. By the end of the year you are rewarding primarily those teams that have had a good singular season...

33
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: July 21, 2014, 04:58:16 pm »
Rather than looking for teams that made it ever year, I'd be more interested in all the teams that made the top 25 at least once in the last 5 polls of any given year. Those should be the best teams of each season, and I'm curious as to how many of the 300+ D3 teams rotate through that category. My thoughts are not many...

34
South Region football / Re: USA South Athletic Conference
« on: July 21, 2014, 01:00:09 pm »
We hit Cades Cove in the Smokies as well. Got an amazing picture of the meadow backed up by the mountains wreathed in "smoke" (rain clouds...). Had a blast. If you can't have fun with a family in Gatlinburg you should just give up. Didn't much enjoy going over 321N to Pigeon Forge in the motor home towing my car, one switchback had me a little unhappy, but live and learn. The Lost Sea was neat, not something I need to do again...

35
South Region football / Re: USA South Athletic Conference
« on: July 21, 2014, 08:52:13 am »
Scots fans... passed through your campus on Wednesday on my way up to Gatlinburg. Family trip and we stopped off at The Lost Sea Adventure (I'm a sucker for 50s style roadside attractions!) and then the GPS took us up through Maryville. My wife got annoyed when I jumped off route to take a quick peak at the campus, but who knows when I'd get a chance again? Very nice campus from what I saw out the motor home windows.

36
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 21, 2014, 08:48:00 am »
I think W&L might have made a 24 or 25 ranking at some point in the last couple years. Not 100% positive and don't care enough to check.

37
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 19, 2014, 06:43:55 pm »
21 looks right to me. HSC has a lot to prove before they should be considered an elite team by anyone who knows D3 and isn't HSC biased. That being said this will be a heck of a chance to make that statement.

38
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: July 15, 2014, 07:02:48 am »
Heck of a goal. A decent end to a very good tournament. The best team throughout the tournament took home the title. That's good to see. It'll be interesting how many team's copy Germany's "build your own campus" approach for the next World Cup. Might be a necessity for the American's in Russia.

Not sure how Lionel Messi got the Golden Boot. He did carry his team through the round robin and the first two knockout games, I guess that was enough since Germany didn't have a single dominant player, just a dominant team. Enjoy those facilities and debt payments Brazil, sure hope it was worth it...
Don't forget they have the Olympics in 2 years... so they haven't even reached the end of the debts yet.


Congrats to Germany on earning a fourth star on their crest. A worthy champion.

Now we have a 12 month wait until the 2018 qualifying begins.  :-\

Yes but next summer we have the Gold Cup and in 2016 we will have Copa America and Olympic qualifying!  Hopefully in 2017  we will have a Confederation's Cup as well as another Gold Cup. Lot of USMNT the next few years.

39
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: July 14, 2014, 10:19:36 am »
Inside one month until camp starts. 

!!

You know it's getting close when the Kickoff pre-order comes out!

40
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: July 14, 2014, 08:54:38 am »
Heck of a goal. A decent end to a very good tournament. The best team throughout the tournament took home the title. That's good to see. It'll be interesting how many team's copy Germany's "build your own campus" approach for the next World Cup. Might be a necessity for the American's in Russia.

Not sure how Lionel Messi got the Golden Boot. He did carry his team through the round robin and the first two knockout games, I guess that was enough since Germany didn't have a single dominant player, just a dominant team. Enjoy those facilities and debt payments Brazil, sure hope it was worth it...

41
East Region football / Re: New Jersey Athletic Conference
« on: July 12, 2014, 11:00:14 pm »
In region no longer matters as all D3 consists of in region now. The mediocre OOC point is as valid as ever. As more conferences go to 9 or more conference games SOS becomes almost an irrelevant 50% for everyone. So that extra win could be the only hope for an increasingly rare Pool C bid. If D3 keeps growing a 32 team tournament will either become all conference champions or the AQ system will need to be rethought. We aren't too far away from having to mandate larger conferences which will further erode the ability to quantitatively compare teams through OOC games. An interesting problem that looms in the not so distant future.

42
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: July 10, 2014, 02:08:38 pm »
Facing one of the final four teams doesn't seem like such an odd possibility to me. I'll probably end up figuring out stats while I'm typing this.

Here's our good friends Mexico in the same 7 tournaments.
1990: DNP
1994: Italy (2nd) in group stage, Bulgaria (4th) round of 16
1998: Netherlands (4th) in group stage
2002: none
2006: Portugal (4th) in group stage
2010: Uruguay (4th) in group stage
2014: Brazil in group stage, Netherlands round of 16 (finished 3rd and 4th)


Another way to look at it would be how many teams in a given world cup end up playing a top 4 team. This year three teams in groups A (Brazil), B (Netherlands), F (Argentina), and G (Germany) played teams in the top 4. In round of 16 there was also Algeria (Germany) and Switzerland (Argentina). In the quarterfinals add Colombia (Brazil), France (Germany), Costa Rica (Netherlands), Belgium (Argentina). That's a total of 18 out of 28 teams. I think the maximum possible is 20 and the minimum is 12.

That math seems right to me. Showing that it should be about 50% of the time. The U.S. is 5 of 7. Well through 50%, although in a small sample it's not as big a deal as it actually looks. The variation from normal is easily accounted for when you consider seeding, as well as increased chances of facing a final 4 participant as the group runner-up (or worse for 1992) as opposed to the group winner. And no, the odds of facing a final four team, especially for a team getting out of their group roughly 50% of the time, is not completely unusual, it's just a bit unlucky.

It does get a bit worse when you consider the U.S. has faced a final 2 team in 4 of 7 tournaments, something that seems extremely unusual. But, as with all small sample sizes, that skews as well. It is also possible the U.S. will face the champion in 3 of 7 tournaments, provided Germany wins Sunday.

43
Men's soccer / Re: World Cup and European leagues
« on: July 10, 2014, 08:56:39 am »
Can't say I'm sad to see Arjen Robben's over-theatrics consigned to the third place game. He complained about everything last night and it was nice to see the flopper extraordinaire not get his way. That being said, he's really only marginally worse than anyone else, but he rubs me the wrong way. Argentina should be a dog, but they have a chance to keep Europe's futility in South America going.

On a different note, let me point out how unlucky the U.S. has been since returning to the World Cup in 1990. In 5 of 7 tournaments, the U.S. has faced one of the final four participants. That's just odd.

1990 -- Italy in Group Stage (Italy finished 3rd at a home tournament)
1994 -- Champion Brazil in Round of 16
1998 -- None. Ultimate U.S. flop team
2002 -- Germany in Quarterfinals. Germany finished runner-up
2006 -- Champion Italy in Group Stage. This otherwise under performing U.S. team was the only one to take points of Italy
2010 -- none.
2014 -- Germany in Group Stage.

That's what happens when you aren't seeded and don't win your group. You get bad pairings.

44
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 09, 2014, 04:28:08 pm »
I'm not sure about any of them including my Tigers. Mostly picked the way I did to get Hasa's blood pressure up just a little.

I doubt you will. With what Guilford has gone through in the last decade, this season, barring a complete disaster, is going to be very satisfying for Hasa. He knows that and will most likely take a quiet satisfaction in it, knowing that a good turn over the next couple years will eventually be followed by a return to the wilderness at some point. As happens with all teams...

45
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: July 09, 2014, 02:46:48 pm »
Hasa should jump you for that. W&L has to go to Guilford this year and they are going to be very young in all skill positions. At the very least you are over-valuing the Generals. Not real sure about RMC to be honest.

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