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Messages - jknezek

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31
East Region football / Re: FB: Liberty League
« on: September 19, 2016, 03:25:37 pm »
Hey PAC....

The PAC is overstuffed, but they really are in all the wrong spots for the LL as far as PA goes. Same problem the ODAC has right now, there just isn't a ready made viable alternative, but at least the ODAC holds on to their AQ once Catholic leaves. Maybe we will see an LL/ODAC challenge as the schools get desperate to fill their OOC schedules.

32
South Region football / Re: FB: Southern Athletic Association
« on: September 19, 2016, 03:15:19 pm »
Sewanee is 0-3 with scores of 21-17, 21-17, and 21-16. That's rough.

What I saw from them this year looked better than what I've seen in the past. First Year QB looks good but he took a lot of hard shots against W&L. The lines looked better. Especially defensive line. I think someone could throw on them easier than run, but hard to tell from W&L game. Regardless, they may take lumps this year but it seems like they have some pieces to build around going forward.

33
South Region football / Re: South Region Fan Poll
« on: September 19, 2016, 11:55:01 am »
Lot of movement this week for me. My watchlist also got paired down pretty good.

34
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 19, 2016, 11:42:20 am »
Well I have to say, W&L's game was disheartening. The first half looked good for a while, but up 21-0 and driving twice in the second quarter we fumbled. Those were chances to put the game away. Go into the locker room up 4 or 5 scores and it's different than going in 21-3 and with CMS getting the ball back to start the second half. The second half was a big drop off. One good drive the whole half. I think CMS woke up a bit, but I also think they made better adjustments. Looked like we came out without the same intensity. Injuries are adding up. Two years ago was brutal for injuries, last year was lucky. This year is not looking good.

Punting is brutal. There have been at least 3 shanks and now 2 blocks. CMS put points on the board after both blocked punts. 4 punts, 23 yard average this weekend. 3 yards more than we averaged against JHU. Sewanee we got at least 35 yards. The blocks weren't the punter's fault, CMS was on him so quick he had no shot, so it's not all on him. But that unit needs emergency work.

Finally, W&L plays soft pass coverage. Have as long as I can remember. But when you are tied with 2 minutes to go, and the opposing team has a kicker that has proven to have serious leg, you can't let them just glide down to the 15 yard line and kick the winning field goal. It was much too easy and the coaches needed to recognize it.

Overall, tough second half on offense and defense, tough game for the punting team, tough ending for the coaches. We will need to improve and get healthier during the off week and get ready for the real season to begin.

35
South Region football / Re: FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference
« on: September 19, 2016, 11:22:30 am »
Jknezek,

No surprise that W&L dominates the ODAC. They have two things no other ODAC team has - a national recruiting base due to their academic reputation, and tons of money for facilities, coaching, financial aid, recruiting, etc. Here is how the football playing members of the ODAC stand up. Stats from Wikepedia, which you can, of course, contest.

School                  Students               Endowment            Endowment/Student
Guilford                  2682                        70,700,000          26,360
Randolph-Macon    1146                      126,300,000         110,209
Shenandoah             724                        54,900,000          75,829
Bridgewater            1690                       70,100,000          41,479
Emory & Henry       1000                       86,500,000          86,500
Hampden-Sydney  1120                      154,600,000        138,035
W&L                      2200                    1,477,000,000       671,000

I'd say W&L has a substantial edge versus the rest of the ODC and if they are at all committed to athletics (which I think they are) they should prevail across the board. I looked at the non-football playing members and no school jumped out as one that would compete with W&L on a financial basis.

Been to W&L and a few other ODAC schools, and none compares to W&L.

Regarding the PAC I'll publish similar data tomorrow, but based on a preliminary look I don't think TMC has the endowment resources of most of the other PAC schools.

Jeff from East Tennessee (and the other W&_)

Stats match more or less what I know. And you are right. There is a big difference in resources between W&L and the rest of the ODAC. I wish we had stats for dollars spent per student athlete. I don't think W&L devotes more dollars, on average, to athletics than many other DIII schools. No ridiculous number of coaches, no crazy travel budget. The facilities are good, but I wouldn't say they stand out in DIII with the indoor tennis center and probably the currently being built swimming and diving center being the exceptions. No doubt W&L could spend more, it's just not really part of the school's philosophy. For example, playing in the ODAC versus the SAA. Mission and values wise, the SAA matches up better with W&L, but the costs and time of travel just don't compare to how good life is for student athletes in the ODAC.

We'll see. There has definitely been a step forward in facilities in the last 20 years. Before that almost everything was horribly behind. I don't think it will pay off too much with W&L becoming more of a national power anywhere, but we have definitely seen regional results improve in football, men's soccer, men's golf and field hockey. Adding to sports where we were already regional powers, M&W tennis, M&W swimming, and M&W lax.

In the end though, I still think most conferences have a school that is consistently a cut above. There are too many ways, and needs, for a school to emphasize athletics if they feel it will benefit them in the long run.

36
Men's soccer / Re: 2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
« on: September 18, 2016, 08:00:07 pm »
Lot of ODAC schools sitting with pretty records on the backs of less than sterling competition. Va Wes, Roanoke, and Shenandoah are the only teams under .500. Va Wes and Roanoke have at least played some teams. E&H and EMU not so much.

37
South Region football / Re: FB: Presidents' Athletic Conference
« on: September 18, 2016, 07:53:11 pm »
I doubt this is all that unusual. For example, W&L has won 19 of 21 Overall ODAC Commissioner's Cups. That's weighted average best performance finishes across all ODAC sports. The W&L men have won 16 of 23 men's cups, the women have won 15 of 23 women's cups.

I'm not going to do the individual stuff. But last year the W&L men topped the ODAC in every fall sport. This year the men and women were the favorite in the preseason of every fall sport except women's soccer, where they were predicted 2nd. Winter and spring aren't as dominant, though men's and women's swimming is every year, women's tennis is every year, men's tennis is almost every year. Basketball, men's and women's, and baseball, tend to be the only sports where W&L is not consistently expected to compete or win year in and out. Softball is the only ODAC sport W&L has yet to adopt.

I'd expect you'd find something similar in many conferences.

38
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 17, 2016, 07:53:36 pm »
W &L kills themselves. You can't win with 2 blocked punts and 3 lost fumbles. Too many mistakes. Defense is too soft. Could be a long season. Congratulations to CMS. They didn't give up and just kept hammering away.

39
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 16, 2016, 04:43:54 pm »


Anyone think there are some ODAC assistants on the "short list" for the CNU job? Dare I say it, an assistant from H-SC?
Do they stay with a guy from Virginia or someone with NJAC experience?
Maybe a coach from a higher level?

They've had a lot of success. I'm not overly familiar with their staff, but if they have someone from Coach Kelchner's tree in-house they like I'd put my money there. I think the offensive coordinator has been there a long time, but he may be retirement age as well. I'm not really sure, but I thought the D Coordinator is pretty new to staff and young.

All speculation on my part. I have no idea. But Coach Kelchner has been that program, so it wouldn't surprise me if they want to keep it to his coaching tree if possible.

40
North Region football / Re: FB: Ohio Athletic Conference
« on: September 16, 2016, 03:04:03 pm »
Ahead of the CGB, I think a chuckle at BW's expense is in order! :)

A direct quote from their website:

"On the field, BW has a tich, winning tradition. In the 112-year history of football at the University, the Yellow Jackets have compiled an all-time record of 579-3336-30 - good for a .629 winning percentage. The 579 wins are the second most of any current OAC member school."

lol@BW math!

That's good proofreading!

41
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 16, 2016, 12:06:46 pm »
Might as well revisit this one as well. Same rules. New comments in bold
Well, I'm not going to lie. That was a dismal opening weekend for the ODAC.  Week 2 was better

Fan bases with reasons to be optimistic:
RMC looked good. Personally I think Dickinson is pretty bad, but RMC looked good making them look really bad. Two weeks in a row. Hard not to compare with H-SC's Averett result. Home/away doesn't matter that much
Bridgewater went to Gettysburg and won. Not an outcome I'd expect from a team that can't contend in the ODAC. Hung for a while with TMC, but in the end it wasn't real close. Still, one outcome is very good, and the other is about what I expected to better than I expected. Bwater is definitely looking up this year
Guilford looked very good. Sadly Greensboro is really bad, so it doesn't tell us much other than Guilford is reloading, not rebuilding.7 of 8 quarters have been really, really strong. I'd be very encouraged as a Quaker fan that despite the graduations, this is still a team built to compete
Shenandoah looked good. Gallaudet is really, really bad. Ferrum isn't real good either despite the E&H result. NCWC is better competition. Still hard to gauge how they will do against ODAC teams.
Catholic. Yeah, still don't know how good Rochester is, but that was a long bus ride and a very solid win.

Fan bases with reasons to be skeptical:
Catholic. McDaniel is really, really bad and it took OT, at home, to beat them
W&L. Too many mistakes for a team expected to be very good. Losing to a top 15 team on the road... not a big deal. Making so many killer mistakes? It's a problem. A win is a win. Nice to rally. But against Sewanee I expected to see more.

Fan bases with reasons to be pessimistic:
E&H. Holy cow how do you let Ferrum come back from that hole in the 4th quarter? Not what I would expect to see from an ODAC contender. I don't think Brevard is very good. Ferrum did not do well against Shenandoah. Not changing my mind based on these games
H-SC. It's possible Averett is better than they have been in years. But when you get clobbered, 27 first downs to 16, 33% 3rd down efficiency, 93 yards rushing, and only 21 minutes of possession, something isn't right. Injuries are also an issue, and CNU looked formidable Sunday. It's possible H-SC is looking at an 0-2 start for the first time in a decade.Change the last sentence to 0-3, though I don't think so. Week 2 performance was better, against a better team, than Week 1, but this isn't boding well for the ODAC schedule. Injuries are mounting from what I can see.

Conference wide problems. The teams ODAC teams beat went 13-36 last season. The only team an ODAC team beat with a winning record was Gettysburg who went 7-3. Thanks Bridgewater! Sadly the teams that beat ODAC teams only went 15-16 last season, and 11 of those wins belong to JHU. So we beat one team that had a winning record, and lost to one team with a winning record. Everyone else we beat or lost to was not good, at all, last season. I understand last season isn't this season, but that's not good any way you slice it.Week 2 doesn't really improve matters. ODAC goes 6-2 overall, but loses to the two best teams faced, TMC and CNU. We played two teams with winning records in '15, Rochester and TMC, and went 1-1. Otherwise we beat teams that went a combined 13-47 counting Brevard's 0-11.

This week will be interesting, as some of last week's winners face some stronger challenger.
Catholic at Rochester. I don't know much about Rochester, but they are traditionally middle of the LL. That should be better than an ODAC bottom feeder and, despite the win, I just can't think of Catholic as anything but a lamb to the conference slaughter.
TMC at Bridgewater. TMC is formidable. Not sure what happened the second half against Franklin, but Bridgewater is going to need to be on their game to compete.
CNU at HSC. See above. CNU looked good against Kean. H-SC looked bad against Averett. If something doesn't flip flop here, this could get ugly. Usually though, these teams play close games, even if it takes an All-American qb to throw 1000 picks to make it happen.
W&L at Sewanee. W&L should get back to winning ways though Sewanee usually plays W&L hard. I just don't think Sewanee has the horses to stop W&L's offense, unless the Generals stop themselves.
Brevard at E&H. No idea. Did E&H forget the game has 4 quarters? Sure looked like it.
Averett at RMC. Suddenly a really interesting game. Is Averett any good? How good is RMC?
Ferrum at Shenandoah. Can Shenandoah count quarters better than E&H? It wouldn't have mattered against Gallaudet but it might against Ferrum
Methodist at Guilford. Guilford continues their annual pre-season tour of patsies. Methodist scraped past Apprentice. Not exactly a resume booster.

42
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 16, 2016, 11:51:13 am »
Slow day, so I figured I'd review this old post from a few weeks ago. New comments in bold

WEEK 1
W&L is a 2 TD dog. I've got hope and I went with them in the pick'em for loyalty, but it would be a good sized upset.  Nailed it
Catholic should be able to beat McDaniel at home. Call Catholic a 7 point favorite nailed it
RMC should be able to beat Dickinson on the road. Call RMC a 4 point favorite right result, completely wrong magnitude
E&H shouldn't be stressed by Ferrum on the road. Call E&H a 10 point favorite uggh. not good. was good until E&H got on the bus after the 3rd quarter
Bridgewater and Gettysburg is interesting. I'll take the Bullets at home but neither has been very good recently. 4 points Not a good call at all
HSC should handle Averett without too much trouble on the road. 10 point favorite Yeesh. Not even going to go here
Shenandoah should handle Gallaudet easily even on the road. 10 point favorite  Right result, wrong magnitude
Guilford should run roughshod over Greensboro at home. 17 point favorite. I don't think I'd ever call someone not named UMU or UWW a 70 point favorite, but 17 clearly wasn't enough

The interesting thing here is how much Centennial/ODAC tie up we are seeing. The CC only plays one OOC per year, to have 4 games landing with the ODAC is a good thing. I predicted us to go 2-2, we went 3-1. I only got one of the spreads even close though

WEEK 2
Catholic at Rochester. Don't know. Don't know much about Rochester. Suspect they will take Catholic at home. Long ride wrong again
TMC at Bridgewater.  If Bridgewater is within 24 points this will be a good result. almost dead on
CNU at HSC. Toss up. CNU is swimming with bigger fish these days. HSC might not be what they were. These games have a history of being competitive H-SC is definitely underperforming my pre-season expectations
W&L at Sewanee. W&L should be a 17 point favorite, even on the road. I can't wait to be there right result, nowhere near the spread
Brevard at E&H. No idea. I'm assuming E&H can win by 10. Brevard has been putrid for quite a while. almost dead on
Averett at RMC. RMC giving 14 if the Yellow Jackets are who I think they are. RMC is making up for my H-SC spreads by making me all wrong in the other direction
Ferrum at Shenandoah. Hornetss giving 5. A little more than home field right answer, wrong spread
Methodist at Guilford. Quakers giving 14. Methodist may be a bit better than they were, Guilford not what they were last year, but I don't see the Quakers letting Methodist hang around. not bad thanks to the 4th quarter

A more typical OOC week though the CNU/HSC game is usually entertaining. TMC at Bridgewater won't be. At all. Introduction to Brevard. A team I suspect will keep showing up in ODAC OOC contests going forward.

Week 3
Ferrum at HSC at a random field. HSC giving 17 I would shift this down to H-SC giving 7
Bridgewater at Apprentice. Bridgewater giving 10 I would shift this up to Bwater giving 17
Methodist at RMC. RMC giving 12 I would shift this up to RMC giving 20
NC Wes at Shenandoah. Toss up leave this alone
Catholic at Coast Guard. CG giving 7. Yeah. Would shift this to Catholic giving 10
E&H at M'Ville. E&H giving 3 Probably change this to M'ville giving 3
CMS at W&L. W&L giving 7. Longest trip in DIII regular season? shift this to a toss-up despite the CMS travel. W&L just hasn't been impressive
Guilford at Averett . Guilford giving 14 shift this up. Guilford giving 21

NC Wes at Shenandoah, Catholic at CG, E&H at M'ville and CMS at W&L could all be good games. CMS at W&L is fascinating as it is not a match up I would have thought we'd ever see and both teams seem to be on upward trajectories.



43
I'm assuming today is travel day for C-M-S. Hope the team travels safe along with any parents or fans along for the ride.

44
General football / Re: D3 Top 25 Fan Poll
« on: September 14, 2016, 04:54:59 pm »
Anyone remember how far Wesley fell after the beating on the Cruthedrals opening night? I don't remember it being very far... So that's a good indicator.

45
South Region football / Re: FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 14, 2016, 03:48:40 pm »
Thanks guys. We will definitely be at Guilford.
Not sure of your hometown, but come early and walk around campus ... it's beautiful.

That is one thing you can say about most of the ODAC schools. Really nice places to spend a few years.

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