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Messages - jknezek

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31
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 29, 2014, 10:06:48 am »
Bye Week Blues are gone! Silly Season is over. It's time for the real games to begin. Let's look at the teams starting from the bottom up (hey, it's the only way I can put the Generals at the top of anything right now!)

W&L is 0-3. They've played better opponents and better games each week, but losses to Averett (1-3) and Sewanee (1-3) don't look good while the loss to Centre (4-0) seems to be a very dim bright spot. W&L gave up the fewest points to Centre of any opponent yet and scored the most. The bad news, both Averett and Sewanee have been handled by other ODAC teams. Traveling to Guilford and then home for HSC and RMC isn't exactly the way to get a running start at the ODAC season. One lesson W&L should take? Don't play teams from towns named Danville!

Catholic is 2-1. Why are they down here with the Generals? They lost to McDaniel (1-3) and beat Apprentice and putrid Anna Maria. There really isn't much to hang your hat on here. Opening the ODAC home for HSC and at RMC isn't going to help much either.

Shenandoah is 2-1. Surely they deserve better? Well, wins over Gallaudet (0-2) and Ferrum (0-3) surround a loss to Frostburg State (2-2). There is a lot left to prove and opening the ODAC at Bridgewater should give them a chance to start on the right foot.

E&H is 3-0. Top of the conference? Not exactly. E&H is almost ALWAYS 3-0 at this point. Then it seems to all fall apart. Wins over Ferrum (0-3), Maryville (2-2), and Sewanee (1-3) aren't real conclusive. Opening the ODAC with RMC could be interesting as both teams took out Sewanee by a similar score.

Bridgewater is 3-0. How can they be smack in the middle? Gettysburg (2-2) may turn out to be a good road win for the Eagles, but Greensboro (1-2) and Apprentice don't frighten anyone in the ODAC. Well, maybe the Generals right now. Home for Shenandoah and E&H as the ODAC starts will give the Eagles a good shot to keep their winning ways.

RMC is 2-1. They got blown out by JHU (4-0), the only team the Blue Jays have destroyed so far in what was looking like an off year until this past weekend. Comfortable wins over Averett and Sewanee only look intimidating if you are the Generals. RMC should find out quickly where they belong in the ODAC, opening at E&H, home for Catholic, and back on the road for W&L. Losing any of those games wouldn't be shocking in the ODAC, but it shouldn't happen.

Guilford at 3-0 is rolling into the ODAC season. As expected they buried Greensboro (1-2), unexpectedly creamed Methodist (2-2), and made it look harder than it needed to be against SVa (0-3). Still, 3-0 at this point was expected and the Quakers should have ODAC opponents W&L, Shenandoah, and Bridgewater very concerned.

HSC is 2-1 and holding on to my top spot. Sure they weren't quite as good as Wabash (3-0), but the Bash haven't slowed down and are looking like serious contenders for December action. Beating CNU (2-2) also has some more chops now that the Captains are winning a schizophrenic USASC. Blowing out CGA (2-2) was expected and the Tigers nicely obliged. Opening at Catholic, at W&L, home for E&H, at Shenandoah, and at Bridgewater gives the Tigers all the running start they need. Lots of road games, but it's against what should be the less capable part of the ODAC. The two big games, Guilford and RMC, are both at Everett.

32
North Region football / Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« on: September 29, 2014, 09:22:41 am »
Johns Hopkins beat Muhlenberg, which many thought could upset the Blue Jays.

I was all in on this last week. Killed me in my ODAC pick'em, and when I did my South Region Fan Poll there was a lot of egg to wipe off. Really thought JHU was beatable at Muhlenberg with the Muhles bringing back almost their entire team and killing teams leading up to the game. Just goes to show how hard that last step can be...

33
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 27, 2014, 11:11:54 am »
Ugh... bye week blues

34
I wonder if the NCAA will move Wesley to the East next year. I don't think they can put all five schools joining the NJAC in the east region. I suppose they will put a circle around the outter most schools for regional purposes!
\

Only three would move. The cheap steaks and the cold ones are already in the east. Of course at this point it really only matters at Pool C time...

35
East Region football / Re: Liberty League
« on: September 26, 2014, 04:43:35 pm »
I sh*t you not, folks... I just pulled into my gym's parking lot -- there's a car here with NY plates: "IAMHUGE"

I can now die in peace.

Twice in one day the East Region boards have had me choking down laughter at my desk. +K

36


I'm still trying to decide if I'm going to drive down for the Concordia-Selma game. Be nice to see Wesley one last time!

Not telling us something?  ???

-Ski

I live in AL and Wesley is joining a 9 or 10 team conference in the mid-atlantic. One or two OOCs a year is unlikely to be a team around here. Especially since I heard the LC series was continuing somewhere on this board. I'd go back and reference it if I wasn't so lazy! But it's been nice the last two years seeing a top D3 team at Huntingdon and BSC (although the BSC game was NOT entertaining). So I have to decide if sitting on the sidelines at Concordia-Selma is a good way to use up some stored points with my wife.

37
You can't help but think Wesley will be in or out of the playoffs by 5p.m. on 10/4. So long as they don't slip up, and I just don't see it happening, those 5 out of division games won't matter. Especially since Concordia-Selma, VUL, and College of Faith all are probably not good. I'm not sure on Concordia-Selma, but they eeked past Point, who used to be competitive with D3 schools, got killed by both Arkansas Pine-Bluff and Southeastern. VUL has been hammered by everyone they've played so far. College of Faith has made SportsCenter for the wrong reasons...

Anyway, Menlo is always interesting when they play D3 schools. and I fully expect Charlotte to be spoiling for a fight after last year. That game is one I'd be worried about getting kids hurt going into the playoffs...

I'm still trying to decide if I'm going to drive down for the Concordia-Selma game. Be nice to see Wesley one last time!

38
East Region football / Re: Empire 8
« on: September 26, 2014, 11:05:00 am »
Predictions:

Bonus pick:
Morrisville State 17, Cortland 14: The Red Dragons lead 14-10 and have the ball with three seconds remaining. On 3th down, Cortland calls for the QB to take a knee, but he spikes the ball instead. Not wanting a repeat of Week 1, Cortland punts the ball away, but upon hearing the horn go off, Red Dragon players start to celebrate, allowing the Morrisville returner a clear path down the sidelines. Dan MacNeill pulls a Woody Hayes and punches the returner to prevent him from scoring. The touchdown counts, and Cortland falls to 0-3. They forfeit their next six games, but beat Ithaca in the Jug anyway, keeping the Bombers from the playoffs. MacNeill is carried through the streets of Cortland on the people's shoulders, but dropped when the fans rush to destroy the only car in the town that hasn't been lit on fire yet. MacNeill quits, but Cortland's season is made into a movie. Jon Voight plays MacNeill, and wins an Oscar. James VanDerbeek plays Cortland's quarterback, and uses a horrible accent everyone makes fun of

I have nothing to say since I'm laughing so hard. +K. Fabulous

39
North Region football / Re: North Region Fan Poll
« on: September 26, 2014, 10:17:20 am »
It's not too much of a stretch to think Franklin would win over IWU in a rematch.
I would counter this argument by saying it's less of a stretch that IWU would win a second time because they've already proven that they can.
So what? They beat a top 50 team at home in the opener. They also lost to an unranked Simpson on the road.  I ranked Franklin ahead of IWU by 1 spot at #10. I am ok with it.

You know, this argument would make sense if that "top 50 team" they beat in the opener wasn't the very same team you're ranking ahead of them.

I don't think its a big deal.

Nothing about a "fan poll" is a big deal. It's just very entertaining.

40
North Region football / Re: North Region Fan Poll
« on: September 26, 2014, 09:57:16 am »
It's not too much of a stretch to think Franklin would win over IWU in a rematch.
I would counter this argument by saying it's less of a stretch that IWU would win a second time because they've already proven that they can.
So what? They beat a top 50 team at home in the opener. They also lost to an unranked Simpson on the road.  I ranked Franklin ahead of IWU by 1 spot at #10. I am ok with it.

You know, this argument would make sense if that "top 50 team" they beat in the opener wasn't the very same team you're ranking ahead of them.

Ba-dum, dum...

41
South Region football / Re: USA South Athletic Conference
« on: September 26, 2014, 08:58:11 am »

[
Also - Maryville fans.....I just booked my hotel for the game in November! I've never been...should be fun.

You're going to like Maryville's campus. Plus you can spend some time in the Smokey Mountains before or after the game. Well worth the trip!

If you get good weather take the drive to Cades Cove. If you don't get good weather the aquarium in Gatlinberg is excellent. Eat at the Old Mill in Pigeon Forge. Go on a weekday since the wait can get ridiculous on weekends. My family goes every year for a few days, so if you want some other Pigeon Forge/Gatlinberg ideas let me know. Avoid the Jurassic Park ride at all costs. Just a waste of money...


42
South Region football / Re: Old Dominion Athletic Conference
« on: September 26, 2014, 08:55:27 am »
Higher education is in a state of flux right now. There are some huge issues facing small, private institutions and you are going to continue to see some odd ways of dealing with it. Cost/benefit, the role of MOOCs and other online options, the falling percentage of males, the legal risks of the Greek system and the increasingly public spotlight on sexual misconduct and bullying. Schools are going to have to get creative to survive in a certain tier of the system. It is something higher education administrators are absolutely terrified about.

If MU can haul in those kinds of numbers, and keep most of them in school regardless of whether they continue to play football, the school is going to consider it a win. If the money spent leads to better name recognition, then that is an even bigger bonus. Either way, be prepared to see a lot of different ideas for a while.


43
East Region football / Re: Empire 8
« on: September 25, 2014, 12:55:34 pm »
Im enjoying the banter- and I should probably post this on the LL page- but where does Hobart fit into the playoff equation if they too go undefeated?

If they are in the same region as a hypothetically undefeated SJF, I'd say one slot below them. They will not have the regular season resume to be seeded above an undefeated E8 champion. Plus they are a known commodity right now nationally. A few years of the same thing happening makes them easy to slot. See Johns Hopkins for another good recent example (ignoring their 2009 playoff run). SJF is much more interesting because they seem to do the unexpected. Lose regular season games they are expected to win and then win games in the playoffs they are seeded to lose. Much more fun to speculate about SJF.

44
East Region football / Re: Empire 8
« on: September 25, 2014, 12:43:00 pm »


Here's my question though. Why does an unbeaten Linfield merit 1 seed talk, but not Fisher? Here are their postseason wins in the last four years.

2010: 8-1 Cal Lutheran
2011: 8-1 Cal Lutheran
2012: 7-2 Pacific Lutheran, 9-2 North Central
2013: 8-1 Pacific Lutheran, 9-2 Hampden-Sydney

Don't get me wrong, I understand how the geographical limitations set up these first round games. And those teams are really good too. But no-one on their current roster has beaten Hardin-Baylor, Mount, Whitewater, or Wesley either. If a 10-0 Fisher can't get a #1 because they haven't beaten any of those four teams, why should a 9-0 Linfield automatically be ahead of them?

I'm not saying you couldn't put Linfield ahead based on playing a tougher schedule. But if the standard for Fisher is "Can't expect a #1 until you beat one of the big 4" shouldn't that also hold true for Linfield?

Fair question. I will point out if you dig back a little farther, but still no where near as far back as SJF's final four, you find Linfield beat both UMHB and St. Thomas in 2009 before narrowly losing to Whitewater. And while I hate to do this because it is an incredibly weak argument I'd also point out that Linfield's 11 pt loss to National Champ UWW last year is better (bleh to the A vs B, B vs C, C vs D logic. I feel dirty bringing it up. sorry.) than SJF's 22 point loss to Final Four loser UMHB.

But I think it's a pretty fair question. I think Linfild's resume is better, but probably not a whole lot better the last couple years. Not enough to make it automatic. Unfortunately that still leaves UMU, UWW, UMHB, Wesley, and the MIAC champion. I think NCC is probably about Linfield's level. Not an automatic above SJF to me but maybe a bit of a hill to climb.

45
East Region football / Re: Empire 8
« on: September 25, 2014, 09:52:17 am »


Ultimately both E8 teams lost in games that weren't close in the elite 8 in 2011.  But again, I already stated we are a conference that lacks the truly elite team.  But if you aren't one of the top 4 teams in the country - good luck making it through the E8 untouched year in and year out. I think you'd be arrogant and foolish to think otherwise.



I don't dispute this. But this is also proof of why an E8 champion hasn't gotten a 1 seed since we moved away from regional brackets and why simply being an E8 champion, undefeated or not, most likely will not get you a 1 seed on its own. To be a 1 seed you have to be elite. One of the expected top 4 teams in D3. The top 1.5% of schools in D3. How can you expect to be considered that 1 seed if you can't and haven't beaten the teams that are the competitors for the 1 seed? You simply cannot. Which brings the discussion full circle. When SJF or whoever gets a 1 seed coming from the East it will most likely be because they have proven they can beat an elite team. Not just that they are the top team in a region primarily designed to balance the number of teams throughout the country.

When do I think SJF will get a 1 seed? I think it will happen during a two year run where they win the E8, advance to the final four by beating one of the elite 6 or 7 teams, and then run the table the next year. If it doesn't happen at that point, then I will fully get behind the East region griping. Until you get an undefeated champion with an elite win the current or previous year, all you have is belief and no proof that the teams can win at the level required to be considered a top 4 team in the country.

I pretty much agree with all of that...which makes me question what exactly I was trying to argue in the first place.  Something about Fisher's perceived inconsistencies I think! 

This is why I'm not a lawyer.

When I first read your last response late last night I couldn't figure out what we were talking about anymore either. This morning I wrote a response that I think simply restated what I had already written. I suppose I was trying to summarize something, but I'm pretty sure I made the whole thing a waste of everyone's time.

Oh well. I will continue to root for a disruptive presence among the elite. I'm even partial to it coming from the East since we all probably agree the lack of a true elite doesn't mean the region is weak, it just means it's lacking the ultimate competitor. Sometimes it is nice to see perceptions shaken up...

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