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Messages - Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

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16
General Division III issues / Re: Future of Division III
« on: August 12, 2020, 12:03:42 pm »
My dad was taking that stuff for a non covid illness earlier this year. His doctor got him on and off as quickly as possible saying, "you don't want to take a drop of this stuff you don't absolutely have to."

You'd need to show me some awfully definitive scientific information to agree to that course of treatment. Not the kind of thing I'd take on a hunch.

17
General Division III issues / Re: Future of Division III
« on: August 08, 2020, 03:05:07 pm »

There's no way the NCAA can keep a member school from playing a sport in a given season.  If the school is following the sport guidelines (for practice time, scheduling, etc), and they can find an opponent willing to play, they're more than welcome to do so.

I know some basketball teams, at schools where students will be in person on campus, are still planning to start practice in October and play whoever they can find when November rolls around.

I imagine there may be leagues with more control over their members than others - that would depend on Bylaws - but most of the statements I've seen about leagues calling of fall sports have been worded, essentially, as all the members individually calling off fall sports.  Some leagues have only announced cancellation of league play, which would leave individual schools open to doing their own thing.

I'm not sure there's much point in figuring out the possibilities until we actually see students on campus somewhere.

18
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Covid Impact on Conference Scheduling
« on: August 08, 2020, 03:00:05 pm »

Way too early to know, honestly.  I think there's some movement to get a Jan-Apr schedule set up - but nobody knows if the infection numbers or vaccine will be a place to make it happen.  As for students taking a year off, I'm sure you'll see a lot of it.  They might get eligibility back for a cancelled season, but they're still paying tuition, and between online classes and no sports, that tuition might not seem worth what they're getting.  I have not heard specific names as it relates to basketball, though.

19
General Division III issues / Re: Future of Division III
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:27:44 am »
Plus they have a strong social safety net, free health care, and people almost universally followed the public health guidelines in place.  I'll just point out, in Delaware, we kept 93% of the workforce working, limited gatherings, and wore masks. We did fine. Nowhere is going to be absolutely comparable to anywhere else, but following basic health guidelines is a key element large swaths of the US population just couldn't manage.

20
General Division III issues / Re: Future of Division III
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:01:27 pm »
Now that we have reached this point (essentially no D3 football, less than 50% D2 and FCS, but 90% FBS playing) is it now clear to everyone that money rules NCAA sports?  If we want to say it is about safety, then the NCAA (or it's corporate sponsors) should be funding the testing of every athlete in every sport.
Daily

I mean, that's a nice statement to make and I'm sure it will be popular, but where in reality is the funding for that? There are 25,000 D-III football student-athletes alone.

Pick a random D1 school, let's pick Rutgers.  The reason RU  can afford to play football is because that they are a member of the Big 10.  Google tells me that Big 10 revenue in 2018 was $759,000,000.  25,000 athletes x $100/test x 10 tests per athlete = $25,000,000.  Money rules NCAA sports

Rutgers doesn't get a full share of conference revenue until 2027. Their entire athletic budget for 2019 was $103m and that represents a $45m shortfall that had to be covered by other institutional sources.

I'm not saying there aren't lots of savings to be had in a D1 athletic budget, but those departments are currently set up to take advantage of them.

21
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: August 04, 2020, 03:54:23 pm »
Marlon Sears gets his first commitment, Noah Helmke:

https://twitter.com/middlesexmagic/status/1290690961350242305?s=21

From Crotty's AAU team, too.

22
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Covid Impact on Conference Scheduling
« on: August 03, 2020, 08:13:38 pm »

There's a retired D1 AD I talk to some.  He's been saying for years there will be a 64 team revolt.  The biggest schools will form eight, eight team leagues and just skip away from the NCAA.  That made a lot of sense to me, until, in the last few years, its become apparent just how far the NCAA is willing to bend over backwards to keep the cash cows around.  There's no real need to split from the NCAA, when the NCAA will eventually let you do whatever you want anyway.

I'm much more aligned with Dave's line of thinking now.  The NCAA is not taking much, in the way of revenue, out of the pockets of those big earning schools.  Even if they run their own championships, there are still costs and administration involved.  It's likely not worth it so long as the NCAA keeps letting the big schools do what they want.

23
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: July 30, 2020, 12:32:35 pm »
Best thing your alma mater ever did for MBB Ryan, was to introduce a GA program. Greatly improved the situation there.

They're staffing 3/4ths of the college that way, these days, it seems.

24
General Division III issues / Re: Future of Division III
« on: July 30, 2020, 12:30:46 pm »
If you're talking just death toll, advanced warning has been the difference. Keeping nursing homes closed up has kept death numbers a lot lower than infections in places with late surges. In Delaware, something like 80% of our deaths were nursing home residents and the vast majority of those happened in March or April. I did hear recently though they think as much as 75 or 80% of the total US population has yet to be exposed. That's my real interest with Sweden's plan. Were they able to have more people exposed and thus prevent or limit later spikes. I imagine only the next few months will tell.

From what I've found, Sweden's public health agency suggests a 6% infection rate and the "best case" estimates from other studies suggest up to 15% infection. There is hope (but not certainty) that the herd immunity threshold is much lower than the 60% estimates most commonly discussed, but that's a gamble and there is still a long way to go to reach that.
And it's not as if Sweden's economy didn't take the same hit as the other Scandi countries with similar demographics. We'll see how it develops.

Clearly they took a hit economically, the European economy can't be separated by country.  However, restaurants, stores and schools did remain open.  However, they did not succeed in protecting the nursing homes either, vast majority of their deaths are also nursing home residents.

It seems nursing homes and poor immigrant populations took a major hit early on, as the more vulnerable populations. I still have yet to see a viable plan for isolating and protecting these incredibly vulnerable populations that doesn't involve sacrifices from the rest of society or that takes into account the significant number of people considered "vulnerable" due to age or health conditions that are in our midst, unable to be truly walled off.

Without getting too much into it, there are elements of the Swedish health system, general levels of health, and some other cultural factors that improved their outcome significantly compared to what other countries may have seen with similar measures. So in one sense, it could be considered an ideal country for that experiment (ie, they social distanced fairly well and trusted government guidance without it needing to be imposed) and also makes it difficult to apply their outcome to other places.

Isn't that isolation what we saw in places like Arizona and Florida?  The rest of the state opened up almost entirely, but the nursing homes remained largely locked down?  Isn't that why we've seen the death toll stay low in these places?  The new people getting sick are all the less vulnerable people going about their lives over the vulnerable people still being isolated?

My grandparents are in a facility in Vermont - it's pretty independent living, but the lockdown rules there are crazy strict.  Vermont's got the lowest rates of infection in the country, largely because they're enforcing a super strict incoming travel restriction.  They haven't (until maybe this week, I didn't check) had a mask mandate, even.  The simply isolated the whole state and put extra restrictions on nursing homes.  The sacrifices have been born by out of state travelers and, presumably, Vermont's summer tourism - but summer tourism is not the high season.  If their strict travel restrictions continue into September, then things become a real sacrifice, but right now they've done a pretty good job of keeping things as open as possible.

25
General Division III issues / Re: Future of Division III
« on: July 30, 2020, 09:56:31 am »
From the beginning they talked about the need to shut down only as much as your hospital capacity dictates. It feels like some countries have a much higher percentage of beds than others.

26
General Division III issues / Re: Future of Division III
« on: July 30, 2020, 09:22:17 am »
If you're talking just death toll, advanced warning has been the difference. Keeping nursing homes closed up has kept death numbers a lot lower than infections in places with late surges. In Delaware, something like 80% of our deaths were nursing home residents and the vast majority of those happened in March or April. I did hear recently though they think as much as 75 or 80% of the total US population has yet to be exposed. That's my real interest with Sweden's plan. Were they able to have more people exposed and thus prevent or limit later spikes. I imagine only the next few months will tell.

27
Northeast Region / Re: MBB: NESCAC
« on: July 30, 2020, 09:13:23 am »
The presence of a full time assistant is the real dividing line between the haves and have-nots in D3. Even if the HC has to (or gets to) teach classes, it's not as big a disadvantage as not having a full time assistant.

I've seen a lot more schools offering GA positions to try and fill the gap a bit.

28
They may have to run in masks, which I thought would be difficult, but the last few cardio workouts at the gym haven't been too bad. The mask takes some getting used to and you definitely have to breathe out of your mouth, but that's standard for running anyway.

29
Well, with no football to watch/post about this fall, and with a totally up in the air date with regard to when (IF?) the 2020-2021 basketball season might be played, it appears there might very well not be a whole lot of competition to post about for the foreseeable future. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Accordingly, as I mentioned on the football board, Iím thinking that after 14 years and some 6,300 posts, the time might be right for this old poster to hit the retirement trail, and ride off into the sunset to enjoy life at the Posterís Retirement Home. As I said in the football venue, this site doesnít need me or anyone else to thrive. Plus, those all-knowing individuals that Iíve (so far) pissed of 1,359 times, will likely be smiling from ear-to-ear.  ;D

You just have to be creative. I've really gotten into second division Italian soccer.  Frosinone (a very fun name to say out loud) has an American striker, is in the thick of the promotion battle, and can usually be found on a live stream somewhere. Big match Friday!

30
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3hoops All Americans and POY
« on: July 27, 2020, 11:02:51 pm »

There will eventually be some recognition of the players who got lost in between the All-Decade teams.  We're aware.

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