Author Topic: Little East  (Read 147442 times)

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1170 on: February 26, 2019, 02:21:21 pm »
FYI - the Northeast RAC only advises. Rankings are ultimately the responsibility of the national committee. The RACs can give them suggestions they eventually toss out and do completely different. People keep pointing towards RACs as the cause when most RACs versions of rankings are not the final versions.

Finally, there are actually two rankings done in the final weekend. The first is the one the RACs advise on, but the second is a final set that once the first are set the vRRO data is run again and the national committee adjusts again.

Finally, Dartmouth didn't have any data that indicated they should be above either Middlebury or Smith. They were behind Babson who didn't even make the tournament.

Dartmouth's numbers weren't bad ... but their loss to Babson kept them behind the Beavers.

I don't have the brain resources right now to dive into why they weren't ahead of Smith or Middlebury, but again they still probably would have been behind Babson.
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Offline SidelineHero

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1171 on: February 27, 2019, 07:09:02 am »
FYI - the Northeast RAC only advises. Rankings are ultimately the responsibility of the national committee. The RACs can give them suggestions they eventually toss out and do completely different. People keep pointing towards RACs as the cause when most RACs versions of rankings are not the final versions.

Finally, there are actually two rankings done in the final weekend. The first is the one the RACs advise on, but the second is a final set that once the first are set the vRRO data is run again and the national committee adjusts again.

Finally, Dartmouth didn't have any data that indicated they should be above either Middlebury or Smith. They were behind Babson who didn't even make the tournament.
 
Dartmouth's numbers weren't bad ... but their loss to Babson kept them behind the Beavers.

I don't have the brain resources right now to dive into why they weren't ahead of Smith or Middlebury, but again they still probably would have been behind Babson.

How did Babson fair against Regionally Ranked opponents? What was their strength of Schedule?  How did Babson do in their tournament?  Darmouth was better in all of these categories.  So other than the head to head Dartmouth is ahead of Babson.  Not to mention opponents opponents where Dartmouth beat East Conn twice this year.  The same East Conn that beat Amherst in Amherst.  Too many other factors in Dartmouth's favor to say that they belonged behind Babson especially when that loss came early.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1172 on: February 27, 2019, 02:19:32 pm »
So you are more than welcome to look these things up yourself and answer your own questions as well: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/women-regional-rankings-final

But they were actually pretty close in all the categories (even the ones you made up):

Babson:   21-5 (.808) / 3-4 vRRO / SOS .543
UMD:   22-5 (.815) / 3-4 vRRO / SOS .562


- So the WL is pretty even. Committee probably considers that a draw.
- The vRRO hard number of 3-4 is even, but that isn't a hard number to the committee. "Results" allows them to dive in deeper. Babson may have an edge because their top ranked win in that category is higher ranked (slightly) than UMD. The committee could have also considered this a draw.
- The SOS does favor UMD a bit.
- However, another part of the Primary Criteria is head-to-head and Babson has a win in that category.
- Common opponents: Coast Guard (B 2-0; UMD 1-0). Probably a draw in that category.

All of those are Primary Criteria items. If the committee stopped there, the head-to-head probably tipped the scales. However, if the head-to-head and SOS was considered a win for both and left them "even" in the committee's mind, then they would have gone to Secondary Criteria and the non-conference SOS (since nothing else in Secondary is relevant). That might favor Babson. I don't have the non-conf SOS numbers, but looking at the schedules that could favor Babson.

BTW - "how did Babson do in their their tournament" is not a criteria in the at-large, rankings conversation. So not worth discussing. That option was reflected in the one more win in the WL category for UMD, but, again, I don't think that tips the scales.

I am absolutely not following the "opponents opponents." Because Eastern Connecticut beat Amherst and UMD beat ECSU twice (and lost to them in the one game that guarantees entrance to the tournament), UMD is somehow better? That isn't how this works. Babson would have had to play ECSU for that to matter (and the Amherst game still isn't a factor) and would have had to lose that game for something even close to that to matter.

So looking at it objectively with the facts ... I don't see how Darthmouth is "favored" what so ever.

And while you may not like the "loss" that "came early," newsflash: all games count the same. As we always say, "games played in November mean the same as games played in February." So a loss to Babson on December 31 (which, btw, is NOT early; it is six weeks into the season) is not going to be diminished in any way.

Finally "other factors" are outside the criteria and just your opinion. Committees don't make decisions on "other factors."

You can see all the info here: https://www.d3hoops.com/interactive/faq/ncaatournament
« Last Edit: February 27, 2019, 02:22:59 pm by Dave 'd-mac' McHugh »
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Offline 7express

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1173 on: February 27, 2019, 08:44:29 pm »
Dartmouth last year (2018) probably missed out due to the head-to-head loss against Roger Williams, which allowed the Hawks to stay in front the final rankings, and get the bid.

2019 Dartmouth hurt themselves with 2 very bad losses: Boston & Plymouth State.  The Boston loss you can probably get by with because Boston was hanging around at the bottom of the rankings for a while, but the Plymouth is a killer.  I'm not sure even if you win the Plymouth game and lose the Boston game is enough to get you in, as I'm not sure if the SOS would be improved (I'll let the experts like Dave, Pat, Gordan and Ryan Scott tabulate the SOS) but the WP would be slightly improved.  You win both of those games like Dartmouth should have, once again I won't comment on if that has any effects on the SOS, I'll let the experts explain that, but that greatly improves your winning percentage.  Instead of an 815 winning percentage, you are looking at a winning percentage of almost 90 (889%).  That improved winning percentage likely jumps them Babson in the rankings even with the head-to-head loss, and that improved winning percentage combined with what could be an improved SOS may as well jump them the St. Joes Monks as well.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1174 on: February 28, 2019, 12:07:24 am »
The trick with the SOS is the game between opponents isn't tabulated. You would be hurt by beating a team if their WL% went down because of it and dinged their SOS as a result. So, the direct game is not tabulated into the math. Winning that game is more about WL%, rankings, etc.
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Offline SidelineHero

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1175 on: February 28, 2019, 06:28:24 am »
So you are more than welcome to look these things up yourself and answer your own questions as well: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/women-regional-rankings-final

But they were actually pretty close in all the categories (even the ones you made up):

Babson:   21-5 (.808) / 3-4 vRRO / SOS .543
UMD:   22-5 (.815) / 3-4 vRRO / SOS .562


- So the WL is pretty even. Committee probably considers that a draw.
- The vRRO hard number of 3-4 is even, but that isn't a hard number to the committee. "Results" allows them to dive in deeper. Babson may have an edge because their top ranked win in that category is higher ranked (slightly) than UMD. The committee could have also considered this a draw.
- The SOS does favor UMD a bit.
- However, another part of the Primary Criteria is head-to-head and Babson has a win in that category.
- Common opponents: Coast Guard (B 2-0; UMD 1-0). Probably a draw in that category.

All of those are Primary Criteria items. If the committee stopped there, the head-to-head probably tipped the scales. However, if the head-to-head and SOS was considered a win for both and left them "even" in the committee's mind, then they would have gone to Secondary Criteria and the non-conference SOS (since nothing else in Secondary is relevant). That might favor Babson. I don't have the non-conf SOS numbers, but looking at the schedules that could favor Babson.

BTW - "how did Babson do in their their tournament" is not a criteria in the at-large, rankings conversation. So not worth discussing. That option was reflected in the one more win in the WL category for UMD, but, again, I don't think that tips the scales.

I am absolutely not following the "opponents opponents." Because Eastern Connecticut beat Amherst and UMD beat ECSU twice (and lost to them in the one game that guarantees entrance to the tournament), UMD is somehow better? That isn't how this works. Babson would have had to play ECSU for that to matter (and the Amherst game still isn't a factor) and would have had to lose that game for something even close to that to matter.

So looking at it objectively with the facts ... I don't see how Darthmouth is "favored" what so ever.

And while you may not like the "loss" that "came early," newsflash: all games count the same. As we always say, "games played in November mean the same as games played in February." So a loss to Babson on December 31 (which, btw, is NOT early; it is six weeks into the season) is not going to be diminished in any way.

Finally "other factors" are outside the criteria and just your opinion. Committees don't make decisions on "other factors."

You can see all the info here: https://www.d3hoops.com/interactive/faq/ncaatournament


with all that being said....Babson should have gotten in ahead of Middlebury.  Dartmouth ahead of Mount St Mary's.  Or Middlebury ahead of Dartmouth and Mount St Mary's.  The point is the selections are very questionable.  My second point is that the LEC is not being taken seriously enough. On that, you will not change my mind. 

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1176 on: February 28, 2019, 12:23:56 pm »
Go ahead and prove your point ... all you do is throw around theories and ideas, but you don't back them. Back up that Babson should have been in ahead of Smith and Middlebury and use only the criteria to do it.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.