Author Topic: The Big Dance  (Read 59548 times)

Offline lastguyoffthebench

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #60 on: November 07, 2018, 09:23:45 am »
I never trust MSU in the tournament, although I traditionally have high expectations. 

2016:  a 5-1 drubbing by CNU in the opening round,

2015:  blowing a 2 goal lead vs Daniel Webster in the opening round, escaping 3-2
           conceding 2 goals in the final 10 to Tufts, losing 3-2

2014:  a 3-0 loss to Stevens in the opening round.

2013:  Miseri equalizes with a few minutes left and forces PKs in the opening round.  MSU advanced to Elite 8 and Camden jumped all over them scoring twice in the first 10 minutes.  Showed some grit and almost equalized late in 2nd half.


Colby has all the momentum in the world and this should make for a physical, entertaining game.  This is a one that I'd love to watch, but I'll be working instead.

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #61 on: November 07, 2018, 09:49:08 am »
On second thought, I will say Montclair hammers Colby, who haven't even won half their games played and statistically were dominated in their last three:
Outshot by Williams 9-3 - advance on PKs
Outshot by Amherst 7-3 - scored on all 3 shots
Outshot by Tufts 10-2 - advance on PKs


Colby will continue to play the way they have throughout the conference tournament. It still befuddles me how people just make this random pronouncements about teams without ever seeing a team play, their style, their players, their weaknesses,etc etc...You cannot base your opinion of a team just by looking at statistics IMO. Yes you can get an idea MAYBE about a team but not a clear picture. I would be happy to take your wager on a 3-0 MSU result......NJAC teams the past few years have a history of really under performing in the tournament. Think Cabrini over Rowan. I have not seen MSU this year but Colby is so organized defensively MSU will not open them up. They have the 2nd/3rd best GK in Nescac. They are in a tight 4-2-3-1 with very quick pesky skilled wingers. They have two workhorses holding. They have long throws, they have 3 guys over 6'7 to get on the end of them. I could go on....Will they advance? I have no idea...but they play ugly better than anyone is playing ugly right now plus they can counter very well. They will just sit and absorb pressure for 90 minutes if need be and try to steal a goal. MSU will like urself will have studied Colby's record and stats and some of these Jersey kids will be way over confident going into the game. Not all of them but some which is enough...Colby will not be tired...are u kidding me they are psyched to still be practicing and playing and will be jacked and have had a week of rest. The one thing that is against them is the unfamiliarity with NJAC teams and NCAA play but I do not see that being much of a problem...MSU must come out and get a quick goal or two to get Colby out of its shell as that will be the only way to open them up. I agree with whoever said they bloclk a ton of shots and if they cannot block them they have a legit GK to bail them out. The game will go either way and be won by one goal....but you do seem confident so I would be happy to get some action on that 3 goal line you have predicted...... I would go up to maybe 1,000 biscuits tops....

I hope you are correct that Colby will be just as jacked up as they must have been in Amherst this past weekend.  My concern would be that are coming off a huge high for their team and program, and they did everything the hard way....on the road versus perennial powerhouses Tufts and Amherst and then historical powerhouse Williams, with two of those games going the full 110 minutes.  They already have achieved a historical accomplishment for their program.  A letdown would be natural and we see that all the time in like the NCAA bball tournament when a team pulls off a colossal upset or two.  On the other hand, perhaps the rush they are experiencing will continue as you suggest and I have no doubt that they are highly motivated to show well.  And as I already noted, Montclair is a major wild card all by itself.  Certainly it's hard to imagine better preparation for playing a very athletic, physical and talented NJAC squad like MSU than just competing with Tufts and Amherst (and Williams in the NESCAC final).

Offline MinnesotaSoccer10

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #62 on: November 07, 2018, 09:55:49 am »
This is unrelated to other topics and is a bit wishful but it relates to the U Chicago section of the bracket.

For any neutrals interested in some good D3 soccer, we should all hope for a Luther vs. U Chicago Elite 8 match up. Most of my knowledge comes from the North region and the MIAC for reference.

Luther is the best team in the North region, they easily handled teams such as GAC, UST, and Mac. They also play a great brand of possession/attacking soccer not often seen at any level in college. They have a good chance at an Elite 8 run just like Chicago does.

So, if this match up happens I highly encourage people to check this game out. It could easily be the game of the year when it comes to two teams playing actually soccer and attacking each other head on. This for me was the most exciting revelation I had when the bracket came out.

Offline gustiefan04

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #63 on: November 07, 2018, 10:12:31 am »
This is unrelated to other topics and is a bit wishful but it relates to the U Chicago section of the bracket.

For any neutrals interested in some good D3 soccer, we should all hope for a Luther vs. U Chicago Elite 8 match up. Most of my knowledge comes from the North region and the MIAC for reference.

Luther is the best team in the North region, they easily handled teams such as GAC, UST, and Mac. They also play a great brand of possession/attacking soccer not often seen at any level in college. They have a good chance at an Elite 8 run just like Chicago does.

So, if this match up happens I highly encourage people to check this game out. It could easily be the game of the year when it comes to two teams playing actually soccer and attacking each other head on. This for me was the most exciting revelation I had when the bracket came out.


I thought Luther was pretty impressive when I watched them as well. Their coach (a Trinity Alum) has done a nice job recruiting talented players and implementing a possession style of play. they have a senior laiden team, with tournament experience. I suspect a match up against Chicago would be very entertaining...

 With that said. I think Carleton will give Chicago quite a game (assuming they take care of biz vs. Transylvania). The Carl's have only lost 1 game this year and are VERY organized and opportunistic. They have flown under the radar and played the role of underdog all year. So they should feel very comfortable coming into that match and I'm certain they will come into the tournament with a little chip on their shoulder. I could see the Carl's sneaking out a 1-0 win vs Chicago, or even taking this one to PK's if they can execute their game plan.

Offline Dubuquer

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #64 on: November 07, 2018, 10:44:33 am »
This is unrelated to other topics and is a bit wishful but it relates to the U Chicago section of the bracket.

For any neutrals interested in some good D3 soccer, we should all hope for a Luther vs. U Chicago Elite 8 match up. Most of my knowledge comes from the North region and the MIAC for reference.

Luther is the best team in the North region, they easily handled teams such as GAC, UST, and Mac. They also play a great brand of possession/attacking soccer not often seen at any level in college. They have a good chance at an Elite 8 run just like Chicago does.

So, if this match up happens I highly encourage people to check this game out. It could easily be the game of the year when it comes to two teams playing actually soccer and attacking each other head on. This for me was the most exciting revelation I had when the bracket came out.

I agree with this, mostly.  It certainly would be an attractive soccer game to watch.  I think Chicago has a clear advantage in talent here, however.  As a Luther grad I would love to see the Norse get to this point.  But having watched Loras against both I just think Chicago would be too much to handle.

I'm hoping for a Calvin v UW-Platteville game so high school teammates Bitter and McCaw can play against each other in their senior season.  I'm sure Loras is bummed that those two chose to leave Dubuque for college!

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #65 on: November 07, 2018, 11:48:32 am »
Good to get info on Luther and Carleton.  Any further details appreciated, and also any insights into Southwestern, MHB, Augsburg, St Thomas, Pac Lutheran, Wisc-Superior, Wisc-Platteville and GAC.  And what about Knox?  Will Luther definitely get by the Prairie Fire (in running for best nickname/mascot)?

Offline D3Grad

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #66 on: November 07, 2018, 12:11:44 pm »
MinnesotaSoccer is right about Luther.  They are a great team to play against and watch.  Much more enjoyable than Loras branded soccer. 

Augsburg has relied on their big center back for most of the goals.  Look for him (#20) on set plays.  They have some good midfielders too.  Vang (#8) is a creative player and good with the ball on his foot.  He can be dangerous if teams defend poorly against him. 

St. Thomas is an extremely young team.  Very few players with NCAA game experience on the roster.  Many playing now have watched the games in the past but are new to the field.  St. Thomas has the players to do well but have struggled to score on offense.  Their naivety and inability to score might be their downfall.  They have a good goalkeeper who can keep them in games, e.g North Park last year. 

A Carleton-Chicago game would be interesting to watch. Carleton is well coached and very disciplined as Gustie has said.  May pose to be difficult for Chicago to break down. 

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #67 on: November 07, 2018, 12:41:17 pm »
More musings....

No doubt East Coast bias plays a role but the right side of the bracket looks to be significantly tougher than the left, with the caveat that Chicago and Calvin are as likely to win the whole thing as anyone.

On the worst/most challenging draws front, we've already made mention of W&L and Hopkins.  SLU stands out...Brockport and then likely Rochester (at Rochester).  St Joseph's was served no favors and probably wishes they could switch places with fellow Maine squad, Thomas.  The Monks are lined up with Middlebury, Amherst and presumably Tufts...quite a NESCAC gauntlet.  Haverford and NYU also grabbed short straws, facing each other to advance on paper to Montclair.  Montclair has a sneaky tough draw as well.  The good news is that they don't face Tufts in the first two rounds, but they get Cinderella and then the winner of the aforementioned Haverford-NYU tilt.  I won't be surprised at all if Montclair doesn't escape the weekend.

Some very good, perhaps under the radar, opening round matches include SLU-Brockport, Ramapo-Springfield and Eastern-Mary Washington. 

The most interesting matchups on the left side of the bracket would seem to be potential 2nd round clashes....Carleton-Chicago, Trinity-MHB/Southwestern, Luther-GAC, CWRU-Capital, Kenyon-CMU and John Carroll-Lycoming.

Tufts has a very different road than in recent years, including their 2014 and 2016 championship years.  In 2014 they had to go through the Mid-Atlantic (Muhlenberg and Messiah), in 2015 Montclair and Kenyon, and 2016 Rowan, UMass-Boston and Kenyon.  In 2017, amazingly the first time they hosted the first weekend, they got St. Joe's, Hopkins and Brandeis.  This is the first year the Jumbo path has a distinctly NESCAC flavor with Middlebury or Amherst potential Sweet 16 foes (along with St. Joseph's) and potential for an Elite 8 game with Conn College.  Maybe (and this all assumes they will get by Stevens/Gordon) they won't care about re-matches with NESCACs but I do think they enjoyed playing new and different teams in the Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic and Midwest where the latter squads probably did not know what to expect like fellow NESCAC teams would.  Of course it's also very, very possible that for the Elite 8 Montclair or Haverford might be waiting instead of Conn.  All that said, there's not a single team in that quad that would make me bet against Tufts.

I am very curious to see who emerges to the Elite 8 from the bottom right part of the bracket....Rochester, SLU, or F&M...or an under the radar side like Brockport, Eastern or MW.  The first three cited all have gotten to Sweet 16s and Elite 8s in recent years but have failed to break through.  F&M has lost twice in the Elite 8, first in 2013 to Messiah and again in 2016 to Calvin.  Both losses IIRC were identical 4-1 scorelines and both were played on iconic Shoemaker Field.

« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 12:47:18 pm by PaulNewman »

Offline blooter442

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #68 on: November 07, 2018, 12:53:51 pm »
I am very curious to see who emerges to the Elite 8 from the bottom right part of the bracket....Rochester, SLU, or F&M...or an under the radar side like Brockport, Eastern or MW.  The first three cited all have gotten to Sweet 16s and Elite 8s in recent years but have failed to break through.  F&M has lot twice in the Elite 8, first in 2013 to Messiah and again in 2016 to Calvin.  Both losses IIRC were identical 4-1 scorelines and both were played on iconic Shoemaker Field.

Rochester is an interesting one. They have played kind of ugly the last couple of years, utilizing the long throw in particular, but have been effective. Last year I did not see them doing much after losing Greblick and Ben Swanger but out of nowhere Geoff Rouin scored 14 goals and was named All-American. This year after losing that scoring punch (he and Di Perna were most of their offense) I really didn't see them doing much Ikeda and Cooley are the two players I thought would be decent but they have chugged along this year and gotten some big results and have had a very well-balanced offense. The one "blip" was that they lost at home to Case and tied Emory on the road (sandwiched around a win over CMU) to close out the regular season. Regardless, even with a lack of star names, they are always a tough bunch and I see that continuing this year.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #69 on: November 07, 2018, 02:22:39 pm »
Paul - how do you say "East Coast bias?" I am genuianely curious. A vast majority of DIII schools and programs are from the Appalachains eastward ... I tend to think of that as simply mathematics, not bias.
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Offline 1970s NESCAC Player

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #70 on: November 07, 2018, 02:23:51 pm »
Paul - how do you say "East Coast bias?" I am genuianely curious. A vast majority of DIII schools and programs are from the Appalachains eastward ... I tend to think of that as simply mathematics, not bias.

D-Mac, I expect Paul is referring to the lens through which he is viewing the bracket . . .

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #71 on: November 07, 2018, 02:27:09 pm »
Paul - how do you say "East Coast bias?" I am genuianely curious. A vast majority of DIII schools and programs are from the Appalachains eastward ... I tend to think of that as simply mathematics, not bias.

D-Mac, I expect Paul is referring to the lens through which he is viewing the bracket . . .

Yeah - I'm trying to grasp the lens. There are a lot of people who talk about "east coast" bias in many sports in DIII. That isn't accurate when you look at the math. It makes it sound like the smaller proportion should somehow have more weight. If one looks at the map of Division III and where schools are located, they will see a huge tilt to the right.

That is why the Northeast has so many ranked teams - they have a huge number of schools within the borders of the region (even when an effort was made, and will be made again, to redraw those borders). There isn't anything that can be done about the geographical location of Division III institutions. Not when half of the geographic country has a handful of schools in comparison to the other half.

But again ... I want to understand better the lens Paul is looking through to understand what he means by bias. I do appreciate it could have a completely different meaning.
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Offline MinnesotaSoccer10

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #72 on: November 07, 2018, 02:54:27 pm »
MinnesotaSoccer is right about Luther.  They are a great team to play against and watch.  Much more enjoyable than Loras branded soccer. 

Augsburg has relied on their big center back for most of the goals.  Look for him (#20) on set plays.  They have some good midfielders too.  Vang (#8) is a creative player and good with the ball on his foot.  He can be dangerous if teams defend poorly against him. 

St. Thomas is an extremely young team.  Very few players with NCAA game experience on the roster.  Many playing now have watched the games in the past but are new to the field.  St. Thomas has the players to do well but have struggled to score on offense.  Their naivety and inability to score might be their downfall.  They have a good goalkeeper who can keep them in games, e.g North Park last year. 

A Carleton-Chicago game would be interesting to watch. Carleton is well coached and very disciplined as Gustie has said.  May pose to be difficult for Chicago to break down.

I agree with a lot of this.

Augsburg the past few years has tried to play a possession oriented style, but they just have not had enough quality players to truly be threatening with it. They can be exposed if the opposing team has an organized press. This year it seems they have gutted out some results, including all of the MIAC playoff games. I watched them all and I would say they deserved to lose all of them IMO. #20 is a D2 transfer CB who is like 6'5" and has 7 goals, he's a solid defender as well. #8 Vang is a top class player. The problem is that he is pretty much all of their creativity, even though he is good enough to supply that in any game. I could see them losing to UW Superior in the first round, but if they advance I cannot imagine they can beat UST again. They beat UST in the playoffs in a S/O after being up a man fro 80mins of regulation and all of extra time. During which UST was the better and more threatening team.

St. Thomas lost a lot last year, and had to fill in with a lot of freshmen. Granted, they did bring in some talent, but not enough to cover their losses. I think they were given an easy pod of 4 and should advance, especially since they are hosting. One thing too is they have 3 top goalkeepers for a D3 team. Which is unfortunate since you can only start 1, but I would say those 3 are probably all in or around the top 5 keepers in the MIAC.

Gustavus has been grinding out results all year. They got a new coach this year, who has done very well with this team especially since there is a very low influence of freshman who have played. You can tell they are still working out some kinks though. They have been looking to build from the back (4-3-3 pushing FBs very high and wide, splitting the CB's and dropping a CDM in between them. From this, they do not connect with their midfield much and usually try and hit a long ball and find the second ball. It is odd, and I think in the coming years this team will see more fluidity in possession as the coach has more time to train his players and recruit players of his won. With that, they have kept a lot of clean sheets and have some individual quality in #12 Parens and #17 Gibbons who are both around the tops in the conference for points. I would expect them to advance in the first game over Dominican (although I am ignorant to Dominican's quality), and to lose to Luther who are the best team in the region as I have stated before.

Carleton: I have not watched them this much this season, but when I did I was not very impressed. But they kept getting results, they did play a terrible non conference schedule, but still got good results in the MIAC. They are always organized and play direct, but it seems this year the difference is they have someone who has been scoring goals for them in #9 da Cunha. If they play Chicago I could see them getting smacked to be honest, I do no think they are great so I disagree with GustieFan on this one.

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #73 on: November 07, 2018, 02:55:41 pm »
Paul - how do you say "East Coast bias?" I am genuianely curious. A vast majority of DIII schools and programs are from the Appalachains eastward ... I tend to think of that as simply mathematics, not bias.

D-Mac, I expect Paul is referring to the lens through which he is viewing the bracket . . .

Yeah - I'm trying to grasp the lens. There are a lot of people who talk about "east coast" bias in many sports in DIII. That isn't accurate when you look at the math. It makes it sound like the smaller proportion should somehow have more weight. If one looks at the map of Division III and where schools are located, they will see a huge tilt to the right.

That is why the Northeast has so many ranked teams - they have a huge number of schools within the borders of the region (even when an effort was made, and will be made again, to redraw those borders). There isn't anything that can be done about the geographical location of Division III institutions. Not when half of the geographic country has a handful of schools in comparison to the other half.

But again ... I want to understand better the lens Paul is looking through to understand what he means by bias. I do appreciate it could have a completely different meaning.

Per usual....different wavelengths for you and me.

1970s was correct....I was trying to show some deference for the possibility that I might have some bias, as some posters even just within the last few days have made sarcastic comments about "all the Pool Cs" going to the East Coast, to some degree in concert with all of the laments about mid-table NESCACs and UAAs getting into the tournament.  I also by using that intro was covering myself because I indeed do not know a ton about some of the Central, much of the North, and the West (other than what most might guess about Trinity, Whitworth, Colorado Coll, etc based on recent years).  I do in fact view the right side of bracket as "tougher" with a greater number of more competitive teams, but given that the left side has so many from less familiar regions I wanted to leave room for others and especially posters from those regions to counter and/or correct me.

P.S.  And also sensitive to the board being dominated by East Coasters....especially the New England, Mid-Atlantic, and to some degree South Atlantic contingents....and over the years I have urged more viewers of the site from other regions to become more active posters.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 02:57:58 pm by PaulNewman »

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #74 on: November 07, 2018, 07:15:27 pm »
It still befuddles me how people just make this random pronouncements about teams without ever seeing a team play, their style, their players, their weaknesses,etc etc...You cannot base your opinion of a team just by looking at statistics IMO.
Disagree.  If you haven't seen a team play, then what else can you base your prediction upon?  And for the record, I did watch the NESCAC championship, and hence my quote from upthread "I don't understand all the love for Colby".


Quote
NJAC teams the past few years have a history of really under performing in the tournament. Think Cabrini over Rowan.
That's a huge reach. Rowan outplayed and outshot Cabrini 42-2 and lost in OT on a set piece.  They win that game 99/100 times.


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I have not seen MSU this year
I have, multiple times.  They are legit.  I'm not saying they're a shoe-in to win it all, but they can cause a lot of damage.  They're coming into the tournament on a hot streak, having scored 18 goals in their last 4 games. They're playing on home turf and will play a team making an 8 hour bus drive. I don't think they'll be overconfident, but rather psyched themselves to be back in the tournament after a rare miss last season. 


Quote
The game will go either way and be won by one goal
I'll see your 1,000 biscut tops and raise you 1,000 that it's not a 1 goal game.


But Rowan DID lose that game and based on your theory of predicting how a team will do based on stats you would have predicted that Rowan defeat Cabrini by a score of 8-0. Rowan was completely over confiedent going into that game and most likely the players felt they could show up and win that game but they did not. Rowan was highly overrated in 2017 and I watched a ton of NJAC games last season. Did I think they would lose to Cabrini? Hell no. I had watched RUN a lot more last season than Rowan and had been saying all year last season how good I thought RUN was but they ran into a Brandeis buzzsaw in the NCAA 2nd Round last year and were knocked out. However, the kid who followed the NJAC the most last year was the former RUC player that was one of their key players in their NCAA Final run in 2013(I cannot remember his handle and he has not been on here this year posting) had been telling anyone that would listen last season how overrated Rowan actually was.

It is just my opinion that the NJAC has dropped off ever since RUC 2013 Final run and MSU Final 4 run in 2011. I cannot remember a NJAC team reaching an Elite 8 since 2013. I am not sure what the reason is for the drop off but my point is since I have not seen MSU play this season I would never predict the game against Colby. I could only guess the result and the reasoning for my prediction but I would premise my comments with that instead of pounding my chest with certainties about MSU. If I am wrong I would admit that but I am GUESSING that MSU does not get out of this pod this coming weekend whether its in the 1st Round or 2nd Round. I just think it is more helpful to readers to premise predictions with actual knowledge of said teams you are predicting. Just me...Everyone is different...


As far as Luther goes I watched the ARC Final and with Luther at Loras and I had seen them once during the regular season. Loras played its usual game that got them to multiple Final 4's just without the same talent. That's not to say they did not have any players because they were pretty good on the day. In fact if they were more organized defensively they would have held onto their lead and saw the game out in the 2nd Half. I will say you are correct about Luther as they were mighty entertaining especially on the counter they looked VERY dangerous. They definitely have some studs going forward and they do play the right way which is to be commended but based on that game I am not sure how good defensively they would be against the Top 4-8 teams in D3. I believe that side could score against any team in the country and I actually am hoping they advance as far as they can because they actually do try to play futbol and it is fun to watch and against the right teams you could have a total back and forth game that ends 4-3. Just my take and I could be wrong about them on defense and I will be rooting and watching them in the NCAA's.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 07:39:58 pm by Mr.Right »