Author Topic: Top 25 discussion  (Read 340841 times)

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1875 on: March 25, 2018, 12:58:01 pm »
FYI - we updated the show page (http://bit.ly/2IGZ92E) to include the interview - look at the bottom of the page.
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Offline SidelineHero

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1876 on: October 26, 2018, 08:53:15 am »
No love for the Little East in the top 25 considerations? Not even one single vote for UMD or East Conn.  Everyone is still sleeping on this conference. Tisk Tisk. ??? ???

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1877 on: October 26, 2018, 01:14:51 pm »
No love for the Little East in the top 25 considerations? Not even one single vote for UMD or East Conn.  Everyone is still sleeping on this conference. Tisk Tisk. ??? ???

I don't have the data in front of me, but I kind of remember those teams losing some good talent due to graduation.
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Offline SidelineHero

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1878 on: October 31, 2018, 06:22:12 am »
No love for the Little East in the top 25 considerations? Not even one single vote for UMD or East Conn.  Everyone is still sleeping on this conference. Tisk Tisk. ??? ???

I don't have the data in front of me, but I kind of remember those teams losing some good talent due to graduation.

Point taken but all the teams in Division 3 lost good talent due to graduation.  UMD still has Examond.  East Conn is going to sneak up (apparently) on everyone this year as they have very good young talent returning.  This is not even bringing resurgent USM or last season's Champs UMB into the conversation.  The conference is a lot stronger than it is getting credit for. 

Offline 7express

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1879 on: October 31, 2018, 10:33:22 pm »
As the residence LEC fan on the board, let me put in my two cents here:

Examond is good, but not really sold on the rest of the Corsairs roster.
No clue about Eastern.  They have a couple good freshmen coming in, but they are just that....freshmen, and they may not even play a lot this year, and I forgot who was a senior last year.
Even though most of Boston's team was freshmen & sophomores, I heard they lost a couple of players off of that team over the summer, so they'll probably regress.

The only team I would've given a preseason ranking to would've been Dartmouth for Examund alone, but I can see why they aren't in the preseason discussion.  Plus, the conference hasn't been very good the last decade.  Before 2016 when they got 3 teams in, I believe 2012 was the last time they got more than 1 team in the field, and outside of a couple Eastern Connecticut & Western Connecticut wins, that '16 Dartmouth team was the furthest an LEC team advance since when??  That USM team that made the final 4 back in the early part of this milenium??  And outside of that run, the '15(14??) Eastern Conn team that made the second weekend, most of the conference teams go out in round 1 or round 2.  The best way to get recognition (preseason votes) is to have teams advance far in the NCAA tournament, and the conference has not done that.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1880 on: October 31, 2018, 11:46:19 pm »
7express wraps that up pretty well. If you are a team in that conference that losses a lot of seniors ... and haven't shown that when that happens in the past you are just as good ... voters aren't going to be serious about you in the preseason poll. One player doesn't tend to make voters jump on board, either. Dartmouth isn't Amherst, Tufts, Bowdoin, George Fox, Thomas More, etc. They have improved, yes. They have gotten their just dues for that. Now they, and others since you mentioned them, have to prove the last few years wasn't just great timing of recruits. They have to prove this is a somewhat permanent thing. If they can do that, preseason recognition will come a bit easier. That and showing the second weekend of the NCAA tournament is the norm would help as well.
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Offline ronk

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1881 on: November 01, 2018, 12:45:11 am »
As the residence LEC fan on the board, let me put in my two cents here:

Examond is good, but not really sold on the rest of the Corsairs roster.
No clue about Eastern.  They have a couple good freshmen coming in, but they are just that....freshmen, and they may not even play a lot this year, and I forgot who was a senior last year.
Even though most of Boston's team was freshmen & sophomores, I heard they lost a couple of players off of that team over the summer, so they'll probably regress.

The only team I would've given a preseason ranking to would've been Dartmouth for Examund alone, but I can see why they aren't in the preseason discussion.  Plus, the conference hasn't been very good the last decade.  Before 2016 when they got 3 teams in, I believe 2012 was the last time they got more than 1 team in the field, and outside of a couple Eastern Connecticut & Western Connecticut wins, that '16 Dartmouth team was the furthest an LEC team advance since when??  That USM team that made the final 4 back in the early part of this milenium??  And outside of that run, the '15(14??) Eastern Conn team that made the second weekend, most of the conference teams go out in round 1 or round 2.  The best way to get recognition (preseason votes) is to have teams advance far in the NCAA tournament, and the conference has not done that.

 USM made the final 4 in 2005(played Scranton in the consolation game). E Conn beat Scranton in the 1st round in 2015, making it to the 2nd weekend.
 Boston will be playing in WPI's holiday tourney this season and could face Scranton on the 2nd day.

Offline gordonmann

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1882 on: November 02, 2018, 04:47:43 pm »
We received information from Mass-Dartmouth and Mass-Boston for the packet of stuff we send our voters to inform their preseason ballot. I'm surprised no one voted for either team, but then again I didn't vote them either. 

I'm leery about voting for New England teams outside the NESCAC because they don't fare well in the NCAA tournament and those are the teams that comprise a Top 25. I voted for St. Joe's (Maine) because they return most of the team that played Amherst the closest when the Mammoths stomped through the bracket.

But over the last 10 years the NEWMAC is the only conference (besides the NESCAC) with a non-losing record in the NCAA Tournament. The Little East is just 10-17 (.370) over that period, even with Mass-Dartmouth's success a couple years ago.

http://www.d3hoops.com/guidebook/2018/women/2009-18_WBB_NCAA_Results_by_Conference.pdf

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1883 on: November 02, 2018, 05:34:43 pm »
"Stomped through the bracket" ... I see what you did there.

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Offline SidelineHero

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1884 on: November 06, 2018, 06:20:23 am »
We received information from Mass-Dartmouth and Mass-Boston for the packet of stuff we send our voters to inform their preseason ballot. I'm surprised no one voted for either team, but then again I didn't vote them either. 

I'm leery about voting for New England teams outside the NESCAC because they don't fare well in the NCAA tournament and those are the teams that comprise a Top 25. I voted for St. Joe's (Maine) because they return most of the team that played Amherst the closest when the Mammoths stomped through the bracket.

But over the last 10 years the NEWMAC is the only conference (besides the NESCAC) with a non-losing record in the NCAA Tournament. The Little East is just 10-17 (.370) over that period, even with Mass-Dartmouth's success a couple years ago.

http://www.d3hoops.com/guidebook/2018/women/2009-18_WBB_NCAA_Results_by_Conference.pdf

This gets at my point though.  I am surprised that NOONE voted for UMD with a returning All American and two other returning seniors and a lot of underclassmen talent as well.  People forget who Ashley Brown and Jess Korzek are.  East Conn is going to surprise with the young talent they have coming in.  They were very tough last year and really were on the cusp of contending for the LEC title again last year.  They will be better this year for sure.  USM will also be a lot better this year with a super star in Curley returning. RIC will be more competitive this year as the new coach there has got things going in the right direction.  The same could be said for PSU.  The only let down that I suspect is UMB not showing as well as last year as they have lost some talent from what I hear.  Top to bottom this conference has improved and I believe the S.O.S. will reflect that by mid season.  So again, I am surprised that noone voted for UMD.  Elite 8 two years ago. 24-5 last year and should have been in the tourney (would have made the second weekend).  Don't sleep on this conference becoming competitive on the national landscape.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1885 on: November 06, 2018, 12:30:07 pm »
First off, no one is sleeping on the conference or the teams. We are all aware and have been discussing them for several years now. However, while an Elite Eight run looks nice ... not much of the team (talent) involved in that run is still there.

BTW - returning AAs aren't the barometer. I didn't vote for several teams on the men's side who have returning AAs (Wheaton, Ohio Northern, Hanover come to mind; not considering Preseason AAs, I'm sure there are more). An All-American does say they have a good player, but it doesn't translate to an entire team. Just because a team has an AA doesn't mean they are suddenly a Top 25 team.

And being on the cusp of battling for the LEC title does not make a Top 25 team. The LEC is maybe in the middle of the road in women's basketball in terms of conferences. That isn't going to sway voters best I can tell. Gordon presents that case pretty well with the 10-17 record in the NCAA tournament which includes UMD's success a few years ago.

And you even mentioned history examples of where voters may take a pause from voting for a team. If even you are finding faults, then you have to expect voters to do so as well. However, you can't say "should have been in the tourney" (I'm quite sure even we as a group predicted they would miss out) nor can you say they would have made the second weekend - you have no idea who they would have faced or how they would have done.

Keep in mind, the Top 25 panel includes individuals who know the Northeast Region pretty well. They didn't vote for UMD or E. Conn. Gordon also admitted he didn't vote for them and he is the most knowledgable of all the voters. We know these teams pretty well. It doesn't mean we are perfect, but these programs need to show they can take the next step and that includes consistency.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1886 on: November 06, 2018, 02:14:43 pm »
Figured we could try and promote some of the hard work our columnists, like Ryan Scott, do on a weekly basis... so here it goes:

Around the Nation: Facing a new challenge

The 2018-19 season brings new challenges for coaches across Division III. For Pat Juckem, it's leaving a national finalist to follow a legendary coach at Wash U. For his replacement, it's keeping the Oshkosh momentum going. And for Bob Amsberry, it's replacing the best class in Wartburg women's basketball history. Ryan Scott has more: http://www.d3hoops.com/columns/around-the-nation/index

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Offline RogK

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1887 on: November 06, 2018, 04:59:45 pm »
I think that a preseason poll should be seen solely as a forecast based on zero games actually played.  I sure hope that the 2017-18 preseason poll had no effect on the voting for the 2017-18 final rankings.
Each season is a separate entity. All D3 teams are currently tied at 0-0. Each team should be required to prove how good it may be by winning games in the 2018-19 season.
Additionally, strength of schedule is known at the end of the season, not at the beginning.

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1888 on: November 06, 2018, 08:06:15 pm »
Well, strength of schedule can definitely be inferred at the beginning of the season. But of course, yes, the final measurement of that is at the end.
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Offline RogK

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Re: Top 25 discussion
« Reply #1889 on: November 07, 2018, 12:19:27 pm »
Something innately depressing about D3 WBB : there are something like 434 WBB programs and if player talent and coaching were always evenly distributed among them, any given school could expect to win the national championship once very 434 years, reaching the final game once every 217 years.
By contrast, a 30-team league like the NBA could allow a team's fan to reasonably expect a Finals appearance once every 15 years and a championship once very 30 years.