Author Topic: North Region Fan Poll  (Read 306384 times)

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2790 on: November 13, 2019, 02:22:56 pm »
2nd Rankings are out
https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2019/second-regional-ranking

Top 5 are the same as our poll with 6 and 7 flipped.

JCU ranked ahead of Hope and Aurora this week doesn't make a lot of criteria sense to me.  And if there was a time for North Central fans to get squirmy, this is it.  BW stays ranked and if JCU wins this week, they'll have a vRRO win.  North Central has a vRRO win this week thanks to WashU's standing last week, but won't have that when the rankings are finalized Saturday night.  Maybe the actual gap between NCC and JCU is essentially insurmountable (it should be, frankly), but if not, they've set the table here to do the unthinkable.
But if John Carroll wins, that will knock BW out of the rankings meaning they'd still be 0-1 vRRO wouldn't it?

No, BW is going to count for them no matter what.  The final rankings are going to have vRRO data from today's rankings AND the rankings submitted by the RACs Saturday night. 
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2791 on: November 13, 2019, 02:25:33 pm »
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%. 
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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2792 on: November 13, 2019, 02:26:56 pm »
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%.

I am saying if NCC gets leapfrogged by JCU, then they are toast. Which I think is accurate don't you?
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2793 on: November 13, 2019, 02:40:37 pm »
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%.

I am saying if NCC gets leapfrogged by JCU, then they are toast. Which I think is accurate don't you?

No, I don't. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2794 on: November 13, 2019, 02:43:35 pm »
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%.

I am saying if NCC gets leapfrogged by JCU, then they are toast. Which I think is accurate don't you?

No, I don't.

Well I can't wait to see the mock selections then and see how you are gonna engineer that scenario.
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2795 on: November 13, 2019, 03:03:33 pm »
It's probably worth pointing out that if John Carroll beating BW this weekend was a big enough deal to move JCU ahead of North Central, that's a thing that could happen whether JCU was ranked 4th today or 6th. Their data sheet is going to be the same at the end of Saturday regardless of where they got ranked today. 

It may be that the North RAC is viewing Hope's loss to Millikin and Aurora's loss to Hope as more damaging than John Carroll's loss to Mount Union.  Not a thing I agree with exactly, but it's not unheard for committees to go down the "worst loss" rabbit hole.  And if they are riding that particular wave, North Central is going to compare very favorably. 

I'm definitely not at all convinced that JCU is absolutely going to jump North Central if they win this weekend.  I don't view those two teams as being neck and neck. 
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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2796 on: November 13, 2019, 03:10:06 pm »
It's probably worth pointing out that if John Carroll beating BW this weekend was a big enough deal to move JCU ahead of North Central, that's a thing that could happen whether JCU was ranked 4th today or 6th. Their data sheet is going to be the same at the end of Saturday regardless of where they got ranked today. 

It may be that the North RAC is viewing Hope's loss to Millikin and Aurora's loss to Hope as more damaging than John Carroll's loss to Mount Union.  Not a thing I agree with exactly, but it's not unheard for committees to go down the "worst loss" rabbit hole.  And if they are riding that particular wave, North Central is going to compare very favorably. 

I'm definitely not at all convinced that JCU is absolutely going to jump North Central if they win this weekend.  I don't view those two teams as being neck and neck.

Unfortunately your view/vote is about as relevant as mine!
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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2797 on: November 13, 2019, 04:26:12 pm »
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%.

I am saying if NCC gets leapfrogged by JCU, then they are toast. Which I think is accurate don't you?

No, I don't. 
I'm not sure how... I see no way (without upsets knocking teams out) a NCC team 2nd on the board from the north gets in. First there's Wesley (1 loss, 2-1 RRO, .560 SOS), Redlands (1 loss, 1-1 RRO, ..596 SOS), and Wartburg (1 loss, 1-1 RRO, .576 SOS) who are all better than either north candidate. John Carroll might be 1-1 RRO but certainly not close in SOS even if the gap closes a bit. Then you have Susquehanna in the mix (1 loss, 0-1 RRO, .548 SOS) who's lone loss is in OT at unbeaten and South #2 Muhlenberg. A better loss than NCC's 14 point loss at north #2 and better SOS plus they'll have been at the table from the start. I think they'd be in before NCC.

This is why I think the adequate number of Pool C teams is around 9-10 (if time and money weren't a factor preventing expansion). I'd rather have a couple iffy teams get in (and if you're on the outside looking in at that point you don't have nearly as much of an argument of being left out) than a couple good teams get left out.
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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2798 on: November 13, 2019, 07:35:27 pm »
Looks like there was a correction made. Hope is at #4 and John Carroll at #5.
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Offline HScoach

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2799 on: November 13, 2019, 08:11:06 pm »
Looks like there was a correction made. Hope is at #4 and John Carroll at #5.

Well, that sure changes things.
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Offline thunderdog

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2800 on: November 16, 2019, 04:15:24 pm »
I think today’s action/results show why picking the bottom 4 spots for the NRFP has been so difficult all season. Olivet & Wabash both lose (unexpectedly). BW losses, but shows they still probably deserve a spot... maybe-ish?
« Last Edit: November 16, 2019, 04:27:23 pm by thunderdog »

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2801 on: Today at 06:15:39 am »
Week 11

https://i.imgur.com/dFIVTXc.png
The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, CollegeGolf18, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, HOPEful, Li'l Giant, NCF,  smedindy, thunderdog, and wally wabash.
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