Pool B

[Ralph Turner]

Here are the Regional Rankings updated.

East Region
1. Cortland State  NJAC 8-0 8-0 9-0 9-0  Beat Brockport St 42-30
2. RPI LL 7-0 7-0 7-1 7-1 Lost to Hobart 20-17
3. Ithaca E8 6-1 7-1  7-1 8-1 Beat Alfred 45-35
4. Montclair State NJAC7-1 7-1  8-1 8-1 Beat Rowan 30-14
5. Rowan NJAC 7-1 7-1  7-2 7-2  Lost to Montclair St 30-14
6. Hartwick E8 6-1 6-1 6-2 6-2  Lost to Springfield 45-31
7. Hobart LL 6-1 6-1  7-1 7-1  Beat RPI 20-17 (Clinches with a win over Rochester)
8. Plymouth State 7-1 8-1  8-1 9-1 Beat Salve Regina 34-7 Plays Maine Maritime in NEFC Bowl next week
9. Husson 6-0 6-2   7-0 7-2 Beat Becker Pool B
10. Curry NEFC 7-1 8-1  8-1 9-1  Beat Mass Dartmouth 40-20

St John Fisher clinches the E8 bid if they beat Alfred next week.
Albright clinches the MAC with a win over Del Valley.

North Region
1. Mount Union  OAC 7-0 8-0  8-0 9-0 Beat Otterbein 49-20
2. North Central  CCIW (Ill.) 8-0 8-0  9-0 9-0Beat Augustana 41-28
3. Otterbein OAC 8-0 8-0  8-1 8-1 Lost to MUC 49-20
4. Wabash  NCAC 7-0 8-0  8-0 9-0 Beat Hiram 63-0
5. Trine  MIAA 8-0 8-0       9-0 9-0  Beat Adrian 9-0
6. Case Western Reserve 7-0 8-0   8-0 9-0 Beat Carnegie Mellon  38-13  Pool B
7. Franklin  HCAC 6-1 7-1  7-1 8-1   Beat Manchester 31-20
8. Adrian MIAA 6-1 7-1    6-2 7-2 Lost to Trine 9-0
9. Augustana CCIW 6-2 6-2  6-3 6-3  Lost to North Central 41-28
10. Wooster NCAC 4-2 6-2    Beat Oberlin  27-7. (Thanks cwru70)

Northern Athletics Conference -- Aurora can clinch by beating Lakeland

South Region
1. Millsaps  SCAC 7-0 8-0  8-0  9-0 Beat Colorado College
2. Muhlenberg  CC 8-0 8-0   9-0 9-0 Beat Ursinus
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor  ASC 6-0 7-1 7-0 8-1  Beat Howard Payne
4. Hardin-Simmons ASC 7-1 7-1 8-1 8-1  Beat McMurry 45-20
5. Thomas More  PresAC 7-1 7-1 7-2 7-2  Lost to Geneva
6. Huntingdon 7-0 8-0  7-1 8-1  Lost to Hampden-Sydney 38-34  Pool B
7. Trinity (Texas) SCAC 6-1 7-1  6-2 7-2 Lost to Centre
8. Washington and Jefferson Pres AC6-1 7-1  7-1 8-1 Beat Bethany
9. Catholic ODAC 6-1 7-1  7-1 8-1 Beat Guilford 49-34 Can clinch by beating Bridgewater VA
10. Wesley 3-1 6-1  3-1 7-1 Beat Lake Erie  Pool B

West Region
1. Willamette NWC 7-0 8-0 8-0 9-0 Beat UPS 49-27
2. Occidental 7-0 7-0  Plays Pomona-Pitzer
3. Monmouth MWC 9-0 9-0  10-0 10-0 Beat Knox 56-10
4. UW-Stevens Point WIAC 4-1 7-1  5-1 8-1 Beat UWEC 21-20.  Can clinch by beating UWLacrosse
5. UW-Whitewater WIAC 6-1 7-1 7-1 8-1 Beat UW-Stout 17-10
6. Redlands SCIAC 6-1 6-1  7-1 Beat Chapman 21-7
7. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1  Open date  Pool B
8. St. John’s MIAC 6-2 6-2  7-2 7-2  Beat Augsburg 28-21  Plays Carleton for MIAC championship next week
9. Gustavus Adolphus MIAC6-2 6-2 Lost St Olaf's 27-20 2OT
10. Linfield NWC 4-2 5-2 4-2 5-3 Lost to Western Oregon 17-9

Wartburg 8-2 8-2 clinched the Iowa IAC today


Clinched in bold

Corrections are appreciated.

[ADL70]

Wooster beat Oberlin 27-7, score is now posted

[Bob.Gregg]

All races in one place:

D3 Races

[The Forgotten Man]

Somewhere along the way, I got  the notion that for playoff bids the NCAA does not consider NAIA games in a DIII team's record.

If that is correct, LaGrange is 8-0 in the pool B running.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Bob.Gregg]

Forgotten Man,

Your premise is correct.

I will go back through sometime this week and list ONLY D-3 records, and, if possible In-Region records.

I thought the document was more helpful to be up now with total overall records, even though those overalls include NAIA/D-II/D-IA/D-III provisionals etc.

[Hawks88]

Somewhere along the way, I got  the notion that for playoff bids the NCAA does not consider NAIA games in a DIII team's record.

If that is correct, LaGrange is 8-0 in the pool B running.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

Forgotten Man,
Actually since B'ham-Southern is second year provisional, they don't count yet so LaGrange's in region record is currently 7-0.
Looking forward to a slobber-knocker Saturday. See ya there.

go Hawks!

[The Forgotten Man]

You are quite right Hawks88. 7-0 is correct. Nice to have so many folks to keep me straight and on my toes!

Maybe the 8-0 is wishful thinking on my part. 

"Slobber-knocker"--that's a new term for me, but I can imagine it will be such!

[AO]

Here is what I understand prior to the regional rankings coming out.

Case and Wesley are in barring a major upset.  Husson is out due to lack of quality opponents and lack of in-region games.

According to opponents winning percentage, Huntingdon is 164th, Northwestern 177th and Lagrange 208th.  These will all go up after Saturday's games (perhaps moreso for huntingdon and lagrange as they play each other).

Northwestern will most likely be ranked higher in the regional rankings than either Huntingdon or Lagrange, if huntingdon and lagrange are ranked at all. 

If Northwestern wins, I see them clearly ahead of Lagrange, but maybe not Huntingdon. 

[The Forgotten Man]

Here is what I understand prior to the regional rankings coming out.

Case and Wesley are in barring a major upset.  Husson is out due to lack of quality opponents and lack of in-region games.

According to opponents winning percentage, Huntingdon is 164th, Northwestern 177th and Lagrange 208th.  These will all go up after Saturday's games (perhaps moreso for huntingdon and lagrange as they play each other).

Northwestern will most likely be ranked higher in the regional rankings than either Huntingdon or Lagrange, if huntingdon and lagrange are ranked at all. 

If Northwestern wins, I see them clearly ahead of Lagrange, but maybe not Huntingdon. 

I wish I knew a quick method for calculating strength of schedule (SOS) stats so I could grind out the actual numbers, but here is my take.

As far as the SOS for Pool B is concerned, the only difference between HC (8-1) and LC (7-0) is this past week's game HC vs. H-SC. Once LC and HC play,  that will raise both of their SOS considerably. It might even go higher than NW (8-1) who plays St. Thomas (6-3).

Even now, the OOWP favors HC and LC over NW.

208 LaGrange  7-0  1.000  0.405  0.486 
177 Northwestern (Minn.)  8-1  0.889  0.451  0.450 
164 Huntingdon  7-1  0.875  0.462  0.502 

and just for perspective
39 St. Thomas  6-3  0.667  0.571  0.557  -- NW may have a pretty tough game.

So, if NW wins and

• LC wins, LC has a better W-L record and perhaps SOS than NW , or
  
  
• if HC wins, they have the same record as NW and a better SOS.

So, I don't see NW going in ahead of the HC/LC winner.

Just my thoughts as a guy who's pretty new to this--since LC was 0-10 the past two years I really didn't pay any attention to it.

Any other thoughts on this analysis are welcomed.

[AO]

I would think huntingdon might drop out of the regional rankings after their latest loss, making a victory for Lagrange this weekend look less impressive to the committee.  I obviously didn't crunch the numbers either, but I don't think Lagrange can close the gap in OWP.  So you've got a regionally ranked 9-1 Northwestern and an unranked 8-0 LaGrange with a worse OWP. 

[The Forgotten Man]

I am told that LC was at # 11 in the regional rankings last week. If HC drops, LC may move in. I guess we'll see what happens.

[Ron Boerger]

I am told that LC was at # 11 in the regional rankings last week. If HC drops, LC may move in. I guess we'll see what happens.

That was Ralph's best guess, not an official ranking.   Other schools (like Trinity TX) are going to drop out so there are multiple chances for LC to move into the rankings.

[The Forgotten Man]

Thanks for the clarification Ron.

Of course the ranking that really matters is who wins that game on Saturday!  or 

[AO]

okay, i'm a numbers guy so I finally decided to crunch the numbers.  For whatever reason I wasn't quite able to match the numbers given by D3football.com for either Northwestern or LaGrange.  Perhaps they were calculated before all of last weekend's results were in.  Here's my work:

Northwestern

Wisc Luth	3-4
Simpson	4-3
UW-Riv. Falls	2-5
Crown	4-2
Macalester	4-5
Martin Luther	6-2
St. Scho.	0-6
Minn. Morris	1-3
Crown	4-2
St. Thomas	6-3

LaGrange

Maryville	5-3
Blackburn	2-7
MacMurray	3-5
Greenville	6-3
Westminster	4-3
Principia	0-9
Eureka	3-5
Huntingdon	7-1

I calculate it as .467 for Northwestern and .397 for Lagrange at the end of last week.  Assuming Maryville beats Averett, which they will, and of course the game with Huntingdon, that bumps up LaGrange's final OWP to .4626. 

Northwestern has 4 opponents playing games on Saturday.  2 of those teams play against winless teams and River Falls plays last place Oshkosh at home.  These obviously won't help OOWP, but I don't feel like calculating that one right now.  If all 4 happen to lose, Northwestern's OWP would be .4657.  Or if all 4 win, OWP could shoot up to .521. 

[Ralph Turner]

 


Appendix J in the Handbook has the method to calculate OWP/OOWP.