Pool B

[K-Mack]

I think we can cross CWRU off the list of realistic contenders at this point - even if they run the table, those two losses are killers.  We probably don't have to worry about Macalaster either after their loss to L & C.

Agree on both counts.

[@d3jason]

Leading Pool B Contenders (In no particular order)

Carnegie Mellon         5-1  lost to Wabash
Birmingham So.         5-1  lost to Wesley, beat Huntingdon
Huntingdon              5-1  lost to Birmingham-So, beat Millsaps
Millsaps                   4-1  lost to Huntingdon
Wesley                    4-1  lost to UMHB, beat Birm-So

Two-loss teams need a lot of help
Centre                    4-2 
Rhodes                    3-2
Trinity                     3-2
Chicago                   3-2
Macalester               3-2

[Ralph Turner]

Leading Pool B Contenders (In no particular order)

Carnegie Mellon         5-1  lost to Wabash                                     Must Play Ohio Wesleyan
Birmingham So.         5-1  lost to Wesley, beat Huntingdon              Must play Millsaps
Huntingdon              5-1  lost to Birmingham-So, beat Millsaps         Must play Wesley
Millsaps                   4-1  lost to Huntingdon                                Must Play Birmingham-Southern
Wesley                    4-1  lost to UMHB, beat Birm-So                    Must Play Huntingdon

Two-loss teams need a lot of help
Centre                    4-2 
Rhodes                    3-2
Trinity                     3-2
Chicago                   3-2
Macalester               3-2

[hazzben]

Leading Pool B Contenders (In no particular order)

Carnegie Mellon         5-1  lost to Wabash                                     Must Play Ohio Wesleyan
Birmingham So.         5-1  lost to Wesley, beat Huntingdon              Must play Millsaps
Huntingdon              5-1  lost to Birmingham-So, beat Millsaps         Must play Wesley
Millsaps                   4-1  lost to Huntingdon                                Must Play Birmingham-Southern
Wesley                    4-1  lost to UMHB, beat Birm-So                    Must Play Huntingdon

Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.

[jknezek]

Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.

I agree that is most likely. I also back Birmingham-Southern for a C if they win out. Hard to ignore since they'll have some quality wins (Millsaps, Trinity, Huntingdon, Centre) and the only loss to a top 10 team, on the road, by less than 10pts. Will go 1-1 versus RRO, and possibly 2-1 (Wesley, Huntingdon/Milsaps/Trinity). Going to be hard to ignore for a C. Again, provided they win out.

Carnegie Mellon might be the competition, but they are going to have to get past Ohio Wesleyan after the bye week. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't put my money there...

[wally_wabash]

Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.

I agree that is most likely. I also back Birmingham-Southern for a C if they win out. Hard to ignore since they'll have some quality wins (Millsaps, Trinity, Huntingdon, Centre) and the only loss to a top 10 team, on the road, by less than 10pts. Will go 1-1 versus RRO, and possibly 2-1 (Wesley, Huntingdon/Milsaps/Trinity). Going to be hard to ignore for a C. Again, provided they win out.

Carnegie Mellon might be the competition, but they are going to have to get past Ohio Wesleyan after the bye week. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't put my money there...

Birmingham-Southern looks really good per the criteria so far.  I have them as my top at-large South team after Wesley goes from Pool B.  B-SC and Huntingdon, in fact, are my top two at-large teams from the South right now.  It gets all kinds of interesting if Huntingdon beats Wesley.  I think what happens there is that B-SC becomes the Pool B, Huntingdon goes quickly in Pool C, and Wesley hopes and prays that they don't get left out. 

I think CMU needs some help to get to the top of the Pool B heap (namely, Wesley must lose, and B-SC and Huntingdon probably need to pick up a second loss somewhere also).  But 9-1 CMU will probably have a good shot at a Pool C bid if it comes to that. 

[smedindy]

The CMU / OWU game is huge. Neither team can afford to lose that if they want to stay in the playoff hunt (that is assuming OWU loses to Wabash though I shouldn't REALLY be so certain of that.)

By the end of October we may be down to one true "B" contender.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Gotta imagine that Wesley is still first in line if they win out.

Huntingdon probably jumps into that driver's seat if they manage to upset Wesley; even with a loss to B-SC, they'd own H2H wins over two of the other top contenders (Wesley and Millsaps).

Millsaps does have a chance to finish 9-1, but they do have a couple dates with some of those good two-loss teams just below them.  However, it's hard to see a scenario where they finish above both Wesley and Huntingdon (assuming that whoever wins that head-to-head game finishes 9-1, I don't see how Millsaps gets ranked above that team).

CMU still has a realistic chance to finish 9-1 and get a Pool C if they can beat OWU this weekend, although the UAA games always seem competitive regardless of team records entering conference play.

Just can't imagine any of those two loss teams actually getting the bid; although several will have a chance to play spoiler in the weeks to come, it's just hard for me to imagine that NONE of the four 5-1 teams will make it to 9-1, and it would be very surprising IMO to see an 8-2 Pool B selection with a 9-1 team on the board, especially with so many common opponents.

[cludad]

Where does Willamette fit in if they lose to Linfield only ,they would be 9-1?

[smedindy]

They'd be a "C" contender, not a "B".

[cludad]

thank you.

[K-Mack]

Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.

I agree that is most likely. I also back Birmingham-Southern for a C if they win out. Hard to ignore since they'll have some quality wins (Millsaps, Trinity, Huntingdon, Centre) and the only loss to a top 10 team, on the road, by less than 10pts. Will go 1-1 versus RRO, and possibly 2-1 (Wesley, Huntingdon/Milsaps/Trinity). Going to be hard to ignore for a C. Again, provided they win out.

Carnegie Mellon might be the competition, but they are going to have to get past Ohio Wesleyan after the bye week. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't put my money there...

Birmingham-Southern looks really good per the criteria so far. I have them as my top at-large South team after Wesley goes from Pool B.  B-SC and Huntingdon, in fact, are my top two at-large teams from the South right now.  It gets all kinds of interesting if Huntingdon beats Wesley.  I think what happens there is that B-SC becomes the Pool B, Huntingdon goes quickly in Pool C, and Wesley hopes and prays that they don't get left out. 

I think CMU needs some help to get to the top of the Pool B heap (namely, Wesley must lose, and B-SC and Huntingdon probably need to pick up a second loss somewhere also).  But 9-1 CMU will probably have a good shot at a Pool C bid if it comes to that.

You were already running playoff selection simulations as of last week!?!?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Based on the bold. I think this comes down to Wesley, Birmingham So. and Carnegie Mellon when the dust settles as the most probably one loss Pool B's. And that's the order I'd rank their records, performances, strength of wins and losses as well, assuming they all win out.

I'd say Wesley is the B if they hold serve, which I think they will.

I agree that is most likely. I also back Birmingham-Southern for a C if they win out. Hard to ignore since they'll have some quality wins (Millsaps, Trinity, Huntingdon, Centre) and the only loss to a top 10 team, on the road, by less than 10pts. Will go 1-1 versus RRO, and possibly 2-1 (Wesley, Huntingdon/Milsaps/Trinity). Going to be hard to ignore for a C. Again, provided they win out.

Carnegie Mellon might be the competition, but they are going to have to get past Ohio Wesleyan after the bye week. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't put my money there...

Birmingham-Southern looks really good per the criteria so far. I have them as my top at-large South team after Wesley goes from Pool B.  B-SC and Huntingdon, in fact, are my top two at-large teams from the South right now.  It gets all kinds of interesting if Huntingdon beats Wesley.  I think what happens there is that B-SC becomes the Pool B, Huntingdon goes quickly in Pool C, and Wesley hopes and prays that they don't get left out. 

I think CMU needs some help to get to the top of the Pool B heap (namely, Wesley must lose, and B-SC and Huntingdon probably need to pick up a second loss somewhere also).  But 9-1 CMU will probably have a good shot at a Pool C bid if it comes to that.

You were already running playoff selection simulations as of last week!?!?

It's official - Wally has no life!

(JK, Wally - revenge for years of you making a fool of me on NCAC Pickems!  This year I knew we'd be on the road for a couple of weeks, so I only entered two contests; couldn't keep up on the road, so have now dropped out of even them.)

[K-Mack]

I just discovered he lists the projections on the Pool C thread.

Always good to see ... I can refer people to those for a couple weeks before having to do my own work 

[Ron Boerger]

Leading Pool B Contenders (In no particular order)


Huntingdon         5-1  lost to Birmingham-So, beat Millsaps; Wesley on 10/27; vs. 6-1 Adrian on 11/10
Millsaps           6-1  lost to Huntingdon; remaining games at three-loss Trinity and home v. three-loss BSC
Wesley             6-1  lost to UMHB, beat Birm-So; at Huntingdon 10/27

Two-loss teams need a lot of help:

Carnegie Mellon    5-2 
Centre             6-2 

B-SC, Rhodes, Trinity all lost yesterday (to Sewanee [!], Millsaps, Centre respectively)

[fixed to include CMU loss - thanks, smed!]