Author Topic: Pool B  (Read 218972 times)

Offline HansenRatings

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1215 on: September 21, 2017, 11:49:00 am »
If Springfield runs the table, they have to get in, so the UMHB / HSU clash may be a B elimination game. (I would say as usual, but that would be off the cuff...)

I also know that's rather premature to think that.

Not TOO premature. Springfield's already sitting at about 50-50 to go undefeated. A 9-1 HSU is getting in through Pool C if they don't make Pool B, though. Only loss versus the defending champ? Yeah... they're getting in.
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1216 on: September 21, 2017, 11:54:35 am »
If Springfield runs the table, they have to get in, so the UMHB / HSU clash may be a B elimination game. (I would say as usual, but that would be off the cuff...)

I also know that's rather premature to think that.

Not TOO premature. Springfield's already sitting at about 50-50 to go undefeated. A 9-1 HSU is getting in through Pool C if they don't make Pool B, though. Only loss versus the defending champ? Yeah... they're getting in.
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Those are my thought, too.

Online wally_wabash

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1217 on: September 21, 2017, 12:05:09 pm »
If Springfield runs the table, they have to get in, so the UMHB / HSU clash may be a B elimination game. (I would say as usual, but that would be off the cuff...)

I also know that's rather premature to think that.

Not TOO premature. Springfield's already sitting at about 50-50 to go undefeated. A 9-1 HSU is getting in through Pool C if they don't make Pool B, though. Only loss versus the defending champ? Yeah... they're getting in.
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Same for undefeated Springfield.  They'll go in one way or another.   I believe when Centre was 10-0 and the SAA was still a Pool B conference, they wound up going in through Pool C.  Springfield being in a different region changes the scenario a little bit in that the committee would actually be forced to choose between the hypothetical 9-1 ASC runner up and undefeated Springfield when allocating those Pool B bids.  With the Centre situation, that decision was made for the committee by the South's final regional rankings.  But ultimately, both teams almost certainly go into the field. 
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Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1218 on: September 21, 2017, 12:05:44 pm »
Sure, a 9-1 HSU is going to go, but not as a "B".

/splitting hairs
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1219 on: September 21, 2017, 12:29:34 pm »
The wild scenario is if we have a three-way tie in the ASC at 9-1 overall, 9-1 in-region for UMHB, 8-1 in-region for HSU and SRSU.

Here is the conference policy on three-way tie in football.  Currently UMHB has 16 points. SRSU has zero.  HSU has not competed against SRSU or UMHB.

9.1.2.3 MULTIPLE TIES / FOOTBALL: In the event of a three-way or more tie at first-place in the season standings, the following formula is used to determine the conference automatic qualifier to the NCAA Division III Football Championship. (8/1/2014)
 1. Collective win-loss record against other tied teams.
 2. Record against each team within the Conference in descending order.
 3. Positive points scored against tied teams (maximum capped at 21 points; a loss is zero points).
 4. Positive points scored against each team within the Conference in descending order (maximum capped at 21 points; a loss is zero points).
 5. Coin toss by the Commissioner.

Online wally_wabash

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1220 on: September 21, 2017, 12:53:57 pm »
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU. 
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1221 on: September 21, 2017, 01:27:08 pm »
Don't forget... NCAA also can use the previous year's tournament success (or lack there of) in their selection process in football. May be relevant.
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Offline Toby Taff

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1222 on: September 21, 2017, 01:32:16 pm »
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
In th case of a 3 way tie all teams would be co champs in the ASC, and since there is no AQ on the line tie break rules don’t matter. a 3 way tie would make for an interesting selection though
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Online wally_wabash

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1223 on: September 21, 2017, 02:01:25 pm »
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
In th case of a 3 way tie all teams would be co champs in the ASC, and since there is no AQ on the line tie break rules don’t matter. a 3 way tie would make for an interesting selection though

Agreed that it is a pretty spicy hypothetical on first glance.  The Linfield win is a trump card here, iyam.  And once you've separated UMHB, the regional committee ought to be able to separate HSU/SRSU (or ETBU or whoever else might be in the three way tie) given the h2h result between the two.  So I actually think the at-large pecking order for the ASC teams sorts itself out relatively cleanly. 

Following this down the rabbit hole a little further, maybe the South RAC wants to get cute with their rankings and place the team with the worst at-large profile at the top of the list.  The worst of the ASC co-champs probably still compares favorably to even an undefeated Springfield (this is a worst case scenario for the ASC teams)...but would still go in as one of the two Pool B teams.  Then, you kind of assume that UMHB would go in very early in the Pool C process, bringing that third ASC team to the table.  THAT team, (presumably the one that beat UMHB and lost to the first ASC team selected in Pool B), has a juicy UMHB chip to play and stands a very good chance at also being selected.  Voila...three ASC teams in the tournament and Ralph does a happy dance.   :)

For the record, I don't at all condone purposefully ordering the teams this way (read: incorrectly) in order to maximize at-large bids for a conference or a region.  I don't think that's in the spirit of the regional rankings or the tournament.  I hope this isn't a thing that happens...but it's definitely plausible.   
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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1224 on: September 21, 2017, 02:27:26 pm »
Don't forget... NCAA also can use the previous year's tournament success (or lack there of) in their selection process in football. May be relevant.

Actually, this is for seeding purposes only, not for selection. And it only comes into effect when breaking ties among unbeaten teams.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1225 on: September 21, 2017, 02:39:24 pm »
Don't forget... NCAA also can use the previous year's tournament success (or lack there of) in their selection process in football. May be relevant.

Actually, this is for seeding purposes only, not for selection. And it only comes into effect when breaking ties among unbeaten teams.

Don't ruin my theory, PAT! LOL Sorry... I always misread that when looking it up. Always think it is selections as well.
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1226 on: September 21, 2017, 03:39:28 pm »
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
+1!

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1227 on: September 21, 2017, 04:01:47 pm »
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
In th case of a 3 way tie all teams would be co champs in the ASC, and since there is no AQ on the line tie break rules don’t matter. a 3 way tie would make for an interesting selection though
+1!  (My bad. No AQ!)

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1228 on: September 21, 2017, 04:17:59 pm »
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
In th case of a 3 way tie all teams would be co champs in the ASC, and since there is no AQ on the line tie break rules don’t matter. a 3 way tie would make for an interesting selection though

Agreed that it is a pretty spicy hypothetical on first glance.  The Linfield win is a trump card here, iyam.  And once you've separated UMHB, the regional committee ought to be able to separate HSU/SRSU (or ETBU or whoever else might be in the three way tie) given the h2h result between the two.  So I actually think the at-large pecking order for the ASC teams sorts itself out relatively cleanly. 

Following this down the rabbit hole a little further, maybe the South RAC wants to get cute with their rankings and place the team with the worst at-large profile at the top of the list.  The worst of the ASC co-champs probably still compares favorably to even an undefeated Springfield (this is a worst case scenario for the ASC teams)...but would still go in as one of the two Pool B teams.  Then, you kind of assume that UMHB would go in very early in the Pool C process, bringing that third ASC team to the table.  THAT team, (presumably the one that beat UMHB and lost to the first ASC team selected in Pool B), has a juicy UMHB chip to play and stands a very good chance at also being selected.  Voila...three ASC teams in the tournament and Ralph does a happy dance.   :)

For the record, I don't at all condone purposefully ordering the teams this way (read: incorrectly) in order to maximize at-large bids for a conference or a region.  I don't think that's in the spirit of the regional rankings or the tournament.  I hope this isn't a thing that happens...but it's definitely plausible.
+1! 

First round games!

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Online jknezek

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Re: Pool B
« Reply #1229 on: September 21, 2017, 04:23:11 pm »
Dear lord people. It's week 3. Many teams haven't played a conference game yet. There is plenty of time to hit up playoff scenarios when we at least hit October.

This is like people who hang up Christmas decorations and play Christmas music before Halloween. You shouldn't need a license to use their bones as Halloween decorations...