Author Topic: Future of Division III  (Read 667663 times)

Offline Oline89

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2760 on: August 01, 2020, 08:07:53 am »
It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.

So quick with the quip, Pat.  It's easy to wallow in misery and gloom.  Pat yourself on the back.  Keep that glass half empty at every opportunity.  I'm sure if you just hope hard enough then you'll be able to ignore every indication that your gloomy perspective is dead wrong.  Weak and wrong.

Um... we've lost 155,000 Americans to this disease in six months and we are still losing over 1000 a day. Gloomy is pretty accurate. I mean sure, it's not the millions that were the worst case projection, but it's pretty ugly.

The only 2 American Wars that cost more lives were WWII and the Civil War.

Remember the Hong Kong flu in '68?  100k deaths in the US when the population was 205 million.  That would be... 249k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

Remember the epidemic of '57?  That was 116k deaths in the US with a population of 178 million.  Or... 287k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html


Perspective.  This event is neither unique nor exceptional.  The response is unprecedented, that's for certain.

Thanks for doing this, was about to google it myself.  Plus, let's not start comparing a naturally occurring plague to wars.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2761 on: August 01, 2020, 01:17:29 pm »
I love how one is comparing past plagues with their final death tolls to the current pandemic with a death toll that hasn't topped out, yet.

So, I guess we can extrapolate from that ... until we get to a final death toll and that is possibly higher than the others, it isn't that big a deal.
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Online FCGrizzliesGrad

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2762 on: August 01, 2020, 01:50:37 pm »
Remember the Hong Kong flu in '68?  100k deaths in the US when the population was 205 million.  That would be... 249k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

Remember the epidemic of '57?  That was 116k deaths in the US with a population of 178 million.  Or... 287k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html


Perspective.  This event is neither unique nor exceptional.  The response is unprecedented, that's for certain.
Not inputting any opinions here, just double checking the numbers because they seemed a bit high to me...
census.gov has the US population at 330M... that would mean 100k deaths from 205M in 1968 would be 161k today and 116k deaths with a 178M population in 1957 would be 215k today.
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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2763 on: August 01, 2020, 02:18:50 pm »
It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.

So quick with the quip, Pat.  It's easy to wallow in misery and gloom.  Pat yourself on the back.  Keep that glass half empty at every opportunity.  I'm sure if you just hope hard enough then you'll be able to ignore every indication that your gloomy perspective is dead wrong.  Weak and wrong.

It's not a quip, it is looking at the data and giving a measured, reasonable reading of it. I'm sorry if that is contrary to yours.

I understand that you always take the absolute brightest possible angle on every bit of news regarding COVID-19, but none of that optimism is going to bring back a Johnnie-Tommie game this fall. The reality on the ground up here is a little different, and while "half empty" is not a fun perspective, it is better than false optimism, at least to me.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2764 on: August 01, 2020, 03:14:06 pm »
It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.

So quick with the quip, Pat.  It's easy to wallow in misery and gloom.  Pat yourself on the back.  Keep that glass half empty at every opportunity.  I'm sure if you just hope hard enough then you'll be able to ignore every indication that your gloomy perspective is dead wrong.  Weak and wrong.

It's not a quip, it is looking at the data and giving a measured, reasonable reading of it. I'm sorry if that is contrary to yours.

I understand that you always take the absolute brightest possible angle on every bit of news regarding COVID-19, but none of that optimism is going to bring back a Johnnie-Tommie game this fall. The reality on the ground up here is a little different, and while "half empty" is not a fun perspective, it is better than false optimism, at least to me.

I would love to have a extremely optimistic approach to all of this ... the reality of things just doesn't allow it or at least doesn't make it change course, sadly.
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Offline jamtod

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2765 on: August 01, 2020, 04:04:10 pm »
The discussion about past pandemics and how they were handled led me to this article from National Geographic about the varied approaches (and successes/failures) to the Spanish Flu. I found it a worthwhile read both for how it informs current approaches and just the historical aspects.

https://api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus

Also Pat - I'm really bummed that Johnnie-Tommie (blech at that order) won't be happening this fall. I wonder what kind of miracles it would take for it to happen in the spring, on multiple fronts?
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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2766 on: August 01, 2020, 06:04:37 pm »
I would think that if the schools play any football this spring, it will be to play each other. But I'm not sure any set of likely scenarios makes it possible to happen in front of 40,000-plus. Currently, because U.S. Bank is classified as an indoor stadium, they are restricted to 250 attendees, and it would take some changes to change that.

I envision it happening -- if it can -- at Clemens Stadium, and not sure what I would expect to see permitted in terms of fans.
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Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2767 on: Yesterday at 10:27:04 am »
Remember the Hong Kong flu in '68?  100k deaths in the US when the population was 205 million.  That would be... 249k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

Remember the epidemic of '57?  That was 116k deaths in the US with a population of 178 million.  Or... 287k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html


Perspective.  This event is neither unique nor exceptional.  The response is unprecedented, that's for certain.
Not inputting any opinions here, just double checking the numbers because they seemed a bit high to me...
census.gov has the US population at 330M... that would mean 100k deaths from 205M in 1968 would be 161k today and 116k deaths with a 178M population in 1957 would be 215k today.

At the current daily death rate of roughly 1100 we reach 161K in less than a week, 215K in a month and a half.  What will Dr. Oz' excuse du jour be next? Good thing he normally talks about football, because he's great at movin' dem goalposts. Not to mention that one would *hope* medicine has come a long, long way since either of these events, making the current event look even that much worse.

Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2768 on: Yesterday at 07:29:38 pm »
Meanwhile, in America, we are further from getting under the epidemic threshold classification than we were when last discussed.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Quote
Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) increased from week 26 – week 28 (June 27 – July 11) for the first time since mid-April. The percentage for week 29 is 9.1% and currently lower than the percentage during week 28 (11.5%); however,the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold. These percentages will likely change as more death certificates are processed.


Wait.  First it's deny that I'm reading it correctly, never acknowledging I was until you can turn the message the other direction?  A profile in intellectual integrity there.

But since you think it's in your favor you'll accept it as authoritative?  I'll hold you to that.  Let's come back in a couple weeks.  See what it says then.

You are projecting an awful lot. Time to take a break again Oz

You need to look up what projection means.  I back up every claim I type here with evidence.

Best you take a break.  Seems when you are faced with arguments you can't explain it's just insult from you. So you can PM politely but not publicly?  I wonder if that's troubling for you.
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Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2769 on: Yesterday at 07:31:25 pm »
I love how one is comparing past plagues with their final death tolls to the current pandemic with a death toll that hasn't topped out, yet.

So, I guess we can extrapolate from that ... until we get to a final death toll and that is possibly higher than the others, it isn't that big a deal.

I thought you had blocked me.  Click on my profile and add me to your block list.  Too dangerous.
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Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2770 on: Yesterday at 07:35:21 pm »
Remember the Hong Kong flu in '68?  100k deaths in the US when the population was 205 million.  That would be... 249k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

Remember the epidemic of '57?  That was 116k deaths in the US with a population of 178 million.  Or... 287k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html


Perspective.  This event is neither unique nor exceptional.  The response is unprecedented, that's for certain.
Not inputting any opinions here, just double checking the numbers because they seemed a bit high to me...
census.gov has the US population at 330M... that would mean 100k deaths from 205M in 1968 would be 161k today and 116k deaths with a 178M population in 1957 would be 215k today.

Correct.  My mistake.

Remember those epidemics?
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Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2771 on: Yesterday at 07:36:52 pm »
It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.

So quick with the quip, Pat.  It's easy to wallow in misery and gloom.  Pat yourself on the back.  Keep that glass half empty at every opportunity.  I'm sure if you just hope hard enough then you'll be able to ignore every indication that your gloomy perspective is dead wrong.  Weak and wrong.

It's not a quip, it is looking at the data and giving a measured, reasonable reading of it. I'm sorry if that is contrary to yours.

I understand that you always take the absolute brightest possible angle on every bit of news regarding COVID-19, but none of that optimism is going to bring back a Johnnie-Tommie game this fall. The reality on the ground up here is a little different, and while "half empty" is not a fun perspective, it is better than false optimism, at least to me.

Where's the evidence that this is Sweden's first wave?

None of your pessimism is going to justify the fact that your gloom is unwarranted.  Johnnie-Tommie game.  Don't be a child.
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Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2772 on: Yesterday at 07:38:48 pm »
Remember the Hong Kong flu in '68?  100k deaths in the US when the population was 205 million.  That would be... 249k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

Remember the epidemic of '57?  That was 116k deaths in the US with a population of 178 million.  Or... 287k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html


Perspective.  This event is neither unique nor exceptional.  The response is unprecedented, that's for certain.
Not inputting any opinions here, just double checking the numbers because they seemed a bit high to me...
census.gov has the US population at 330M... that would mean 100k deaths from 205M in 1968 would be 161k today and 116k deaths with a 178M population in 1957 would be 215k today.

At the current daily death rate of roughly 1100 we reach 161K in less than a week, 215K in a month and a half.  What will Dr. Oz' excuse du jour be next? Good thing he normally talks about football, because he's great at movin' dem goalposts. Not to mention that one would *hope* medicine has come a long, long way since either of these events, making the current event look even that much worse.

What will be your excuse?  You *hope* that cowering in fear will make this less.  The misery your shameful attitude causes goes uncounted.  Hide in your basement.  No one stops you.  Demand the rest of the world hide as well?  A profile in courage.
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Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2773 on: Yesterday at 07:55:19 pm »
In this post from July 1st I linked to the data on Texas hospital capacity.  We can take a look at what it said then and compare it to what it says now to see what is actually happening.

Then:

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

Data from the TX dept of health and human services.

RE: Texas.  You'll need to click around the visualization to find the numbers but there are 55.3k hospital beds in TX, of which 41.5k are occupied (75% capacity).  Of those 41.5k bedded patients, 6.5k are with CV (12% of capacity and 16% of demand).  1.4k ICU beds and 5.5k ventilators remained unused.  So it appears that in TX, at least, the covid outbreak can get three times worse before TX must start using additional capacity facilities.

Now:

There are 56.7k beds in Texas of which 46.2k are occupied (81% capacity).  Of those 46.2k bedded patients, 10.6k are CV positive (19% of capacity and 23% of demand) [we can infer from the totals that non-CV hospital demand has remained stable over this period at 35k-36k beds instead of declining as you intimate].  900 ICU beds and and 5.2k ventilators remain unused.

So has TX reached a point where the must start adding extra capacity?  It appears they are not even close to that point.  But where did the extra 1.4k beds come from?  I suspect they have been made available in the Dallas and Houston areas of the state which are running closer to 85% capacity (84% in Dallas and 88% in Houston).

And today?

There are 55k beds in Texas of which 43.6k are occupied (a decrease of 2.6k or almost a 5% reduction in demand in the last 9 days.  Of those 43.6k bedded patients, 10.1k are CV positive (again, an almost 5% reduction in nine days).  Non CV hospitalisation is at 33.5k, also a little less.  1.2k ICU beds remain unused (a 33% increase in capacity) along with 5.5k ventilators (a near 6% increase in capacity).  Dallas runs at 86% capacity and Houston at 82% capacity.

As it has all month, Texas looks fine in dealing with the challenges of the virus.

Oh, oh.  It looks like "Dr Oz" was right.  Texas managed just fine.  Houston just fine.  Oh, the panic was unjustified?  Say it isn't so.  Ask yourselves: how did he know this?  How was he able to be so confident when we were not?  I'll give you the answer: I put my fears aside and thought with my rational brain and not my emotions.

Now where is Texas, just a week after our last check in?

There are 54.8k beds in Texas (perhaps they are closing a few beds as they don't need to maintain the capacity?) of which 43.1k are occupied (down just a couple hundred beds from our last check-in).  Of those 43.1k bedded patients, only 8.9k are Covid positive (a 1.2k decrease or 12% down).  Non-covid patients are at 34.2, up a smidge but essentially stable for the entire time we've been tracking Texas.  1.2k ICU beds remained unused, no change.  6.5k ventilators are available (another 16% increase in capacity.  Due to more being brought in or fewer used I do not know).  Dallas runs at 85% capacity (essentially the same for this whole month) and Houston runs at 85% capacity as well, also essentially unchanged.

Low and behold.  As predicted.  The one place where this virus got out of control, metro NYC, was due to an inhumane policy regarded aged and long term care patients with covid.  Protect the vulnerable and this epidemic is utterly manageable.  This isn't hopeless optimism from "Dr Oz" but cold hard evidence.  Our experience with the bug.  Time to accept good news, folks.  I know you don't want to but you can only cling bitterly to your doom for so long before it's just plain delusional.
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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: Future of Division III
« Reply #2774 on: Yesterday at 07:57:01 pm »
Wait, what’s this?  It can’t be so!  Sweden, who approached this pandemic with the time-tested approach to every pandemic ever, is on the downward slope when the rest of Europe who decided to pursue a previously untested approach of trying to shut whole countries down is rebounding as the virus gains steam again?  How can that possibly be?  Surely there is no lesson to be learned here about arrogance, panic and intellectual overconfidence.

It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.

So quick with the quip, Pat.  It's easy to wallow in misery and gloom.  Pat yourself on the back.  Keep that glass half empty at every opportunity.  I'm sure if you just hope hard enough then you'll be able to ignore every indication that your gloomy perspective is dead wrong.  Weak and wrong.

It's not a quip, it is looking at the data and giving a measured, reasonable reading of it. I'm sorry if that is contrary to yours.

I understand that you always take the absolute brightest possible angle on every bit of news regarding COVID-19, but none of that optimism is going to bring back a Johnnie-Tommie game this fall. The reality on the ground up here is a little different, and while "half empty" is not a fun perspective, it is better than false optimism, at least to me.

Where's the evidence that this is Sweden's first wave?

None of your pessimism is going to justify the fact that your gloom is unwarranted.  Johnnie-Tommie game.  Don't be a child.
It would be funny if it weren’t sad how little introspection and intellectual rigour the panic! crowd applied to this known scenario.

Hi -- I was just reading the graph you posted, which shows Sweden's curve finally beginning to fall. Did we redefine the terminology while I wasn't looking?


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