Author Topic: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin  (Read 4585797 times)

Offline formerd3db

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36600 on: January 09, 2019, 04:41:04 pm »
Wally,
We are talking semantics here.  Both of those guys are correct-it just depends on which specific parameters one is talking about. One can make the case that GS's original statement wasn't totally clear, he could have clarified it specifically as USee has alluded to (Of course, GS will disagree with that, but that is okay and what's new? :))  Nonetheless, this debate is another example of what all of us end up doing on these boards in the off-season. Sometimes some interesting, but perhaps at the same time irrelevant topics i.e. who cares? other than those of us who are OCD on any and all topics that have anything to do with DIII football (athletics)!! ;) And I include myself regarding that-sometimes too overboard, reading too much into a discussion!!!
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Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36601 on: January 09, 2019, 05:55:48 pm »
There is no doubt North Central has been enormously successful this decade. GS definition of "Blindingly Obvious" and "Most successful CCIW program"  has some subjectivity to it naturally.

No subjectivity on my part at all. I have no skin in any debate over which program has been the most successful in the CCIW over the past fifteen years, as I am neither a Wheaton fan nor a North Central fan. And if you were to extend out (presumably far enough to add Bob Reade's Augustana juggernaut) or shrink down (in order to make Wheaton's case more favorable) the parameters, I still wouldn't have any skin in the game, for obvious reasons.

What he doesn't say is that Wheaton is 9-7 vs NCC over those 15 years.

I've already conceded that point, albeit sarcastically:

How nice for your school!

That head-to-head advantage is a nice thing to have in your back pocket as a Wheaton fan, especially since: a) NCC vs. WC is a bona-fide football rivalry, complete with traveling trophy; and b) in recent years it has become the game that often determines both the CCIW title and a D3 playoff berth. But that H2H doesn't even begin to determine the most successful program of the past fifteen years. As Wally said, the WC vs. NCC head-to-head over that span is only a small fraction of the bigger picture, which is the overall performance of the two programs in CCIW play over that span -- and NCC dominates the big-picture view.

In addition, if you take the data since 2000 (just 4 additional seasons than his random sample) and include overall record as well as CCIW record:

Wheaton:
172-40 Overall; 110-27 in CCIW; 9 NCAA appearances, 8 CCIW titles; 13-7 record vs NCC

NCC:
164-56 Overall; 110-27 in CCIW; 11 NCAA appearances, 11 CCIW titles; 7-13 record vs Wheaton

Wheaton is 38-7 overall and  4-1 against NCC with 2 NCAA appearances since JT2 took over the program in 2015. For NCC they are 38-8 overall and 3 NCAA appearances over the last 4 seasons.  I don't think it's that obvious at all.

All true. And all totally beside the point. The point is about the last fifteen years, which is the time span that I cited to 79jaybird when responding to his statement that Elmhurst was hampered in recruiting because suburban high school football players don't want to go to school locally.

I left out overall records because non-conference games are an unbalanced element. The team(s) that North Central play(s) in non-con action in a given season don't necessarily equate to the team(s) that Wheaton faces in non-conference play. This is about the most successful program in the CCIW, so I stuck to CCIW criteria (although I freely admit that the selection process for Pool C teams does involve what happens outside the league).

Also, there's nothing at all random about my choice of a data set. I'll explain that below.

There is no doubt North Central has been enormously successful this decade. GS definition of "Blindingly Obvious" and "Most successful CCIW program"  has some subjectivity to it naturally.

GS laid out his criteria pretty plainly:
... W-L percentage in league play, CCIW championships won, and D3 playoff appearances...

These figures couldn't possibly be less subjective.  And whereas the CCIW plays a full round robin, there's no unbalanced schedule fudge factor to deal with.  I mean, this is as apples to apples as it gets.

Wheaton has a W/L advantage vs. NCC during this timeframe, but Wheaton vs. NCC games are a small part of the overall CCIW records.  A 100-point win percentage difference across a 100+ game sample size is not insignificant or arbitrary or subjective.

I agree the data he chose are not open for debate. Choosing 15 years vs 20 years of data is certainly subjective no?

No, it isn't. It's neither subjective nor random. The fifteen-year figure is directly tied into the point that I was making to Mark (79jaybird) about suburban recruiting. His thesis (which, I'm sorry, Mark, still doesn't make sense to me) is that suburban high school football players don't want to go to school close to home. I responded that North Central refutes his thesis because it's been the CCIW's most successful program over the past fifteen years while consisting of teams mostly made up of suburban kids.

So why did I choose fifteen years? Why not some other number ... why not fourteen years, since 2005 was the big breakthrough season for the Cardinals, in which they went 9-2, 6-1 and made the playoffs for the first time? Why not sixteen years, since the 2003 record was the same as the 2004 record and had the same coach, John Thorne?

Well, there's two reasons. First, it's a less arbitrary number than most, because it can be explained in a basic alternate phrase -- "a decade and a half" -- which is the phrase I used in my response to Mark. Fifteen is three handfuls. It's a decade -- a basic unit of time measurement that we all use daily -- plus a half of a decade, and we measure things by halves on a daily basis as well. "A decade and a half" is thus an easier number to mentally digest than "fourteen years" or "sixteen years". Second, 2004 was the point in which John Thorne's first recruiting class became upperclassmen; i.e., it was the point when his first recruits began to become the dominant aspect of the roster, rather than the team being dominated by the holdovers that'd been recruited by his predecessor Joe DeGeorge -- and that was the entire purpose behind my response to Mark. With all due apologies to Mark, I don't think that the "suburban kids don't want to go to school locally" excuse really flies, because the rosters of all sports at both EC and NCC are jam-packed with suburban Chicagolanders. I think that the difference between why North Central no longer struggles in football the way that it used to while Elmhurst still does is John Thorne. The man brought a lot to the table as North Central's head coach, but one of his biggest assets was that he had been a hugely successful head football coach in a suburban Chicagoland high school, and he was able to parlay his connections within the suburban Chicagoland high school coaching ranks to ratchet up the effectiveness of NCC's football recruiting within what has always been the school's primary recruiting footprint. Mark actually leans that way in his own statement that "the name Thorne carried a lot of lust [sic] in DuPage Co.  even before he took the job at NC to rebuild the program. When Thorne was hired at NC, I recall saying on the air a few times, that give NC 2-3 years and they are going to be solid contenders."

In other words, my choice of fifteen years was neither subjective nor random. It was quite deliberate on my part, in order to make a point. I didn't feel it was necessary to pull back the curtain and show the architecture of why I made my point the way that I did, vis-a-vis timeframe, when I first responded to Mark, because -- well, let's face it, getting into that much detail tends to make people's eyes glaze over and ruins the point. ;)

And conference records for these two since 2000 vs 2004 is identical. My comment wasn't about the data, it was about the data set choice and his conclusion, which couldn't be more subjective.

Again, as Wally said, there's nothing at all subjective about the data that I used or the conclusion that I drew from it. You could make the argument that the data set choice was arbitary, or that my motivation behind choosing it was subjective, but, as I've just illustrated, it was neither of those things.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 06:00:24 pm by Gregory Sager »
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Offline USee

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36602 on: January 09, 2019, 06:35:16 pm »
We can agree to disagree. There is a difference between subjectivity and bias. I agree you have no bias, but you absolutely are using subjective data sets for a deliberate point. 15 years is  subjective, to fit your argument. 2 decades is as simple to say and the data comes out differently.
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Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36603 on: January 09, 2019, 11:53:51 pm »
We can agree to disagree. There is a difference between subjectivity and bias. I agree you have no bias, but you absolutely are using subjective data sets for a deliberate point. 15 years is  subjective, to fit your argument. 2 decades is as simple to say and the data comes out differently.

Yes, but again, two decades makes absolutely no contextual sense. Your two-decade yardstick is absolutely irrelevant to the discussion. This is all about Mark's assertion regarding suburban Chicagoland recruiting. The fulcrum of the whole issue regarding suburban recruiting is John Thorne, because I believe that he is the explanation for the difference between NCC's football fortunes and Elmhurst's. (NCC fans, if you disagree with me about that, feel free to chime in ... after all, it's your program, not mine.) There's really two ways that I could've gone about making my point:

* NCC is the most successful program in the league over the past fifteen years (which is what I used), based upon my estimate of when the Cardinals' two-deep became Thorne-dominated rather than DeGeorge-dominated with regard to recruiting; or

* NCC is the most successful program in the league over the past seventeen years. That would've covered the entirety of the tenures of Thornes pere and fils in Naperville. I'm less inclined to use this yardstick, because I'm reluctant to hold John Thorne responsible for how well he coached teams that he didn't bring into the program, considering that this discussion is all about his recruiting acumen. Over that seventeen-year stretch Wheaton narrows the gaps in terms of CCIW winning percentage, CCIW titles, and D3 playoff appearances, but NCC still dominates in those categories; ergo, North Central is still the most successful program in the league if you use as the starting date the day that the school hired John Thorne.

There is no subjectivity at work here. Again, my argument regards John Thorne, vis-a-vis suburban recruiting, so the years that I'm measuring are not the least bit arbitrary.
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Offline robertgoulet

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36604 on: January 10, 2019, 09:10:11 am »
We can agree to disagree. There is a difference between subjectivity and bias. I agree you have no bias, but you absolutely are using subjective data sets for a deliberate point. 15 years is  subjective, to fit your argument. 2 decades is as simple to say and the data comes out differently.

Yes, but again, two decades makes absolutely no contextual sense. Your two-decade yardstick is absolutely irrelevant to the discussion. This is all about Mark's assertion regarding suburban Chicagoland recruiting. The fulcrum of the whole issue regarding suburban recruiting is John Thorne, because I believe that he is the explanation for the difference between NCC's football fortunes and Elmhurst's. (NCC fans, if you disagree with me about that, feel free to chime in ... after all, it's your program, not mine.) There's really two ways that I could've gone about making my point:

* NCC is the most successful program in the league over the past fifteen years (which is what I used), based upon my estimate of when the Cardinals' two-deep became Thorne-dominated rather than DeGeorge-dominated with regard to recruiting; or

* NCC is the most successful program in the league over the past seventeen years. That would've covered the entirety of the tenures of Thornes pere and fils in Naperville. I'm less inclined to use this yardstick, because I'm reluctant to hold John Thorne responsible for how well he coached teams that he didn't bring into the program, considering that this discussion is all about his recruiting acumen. Over that seventeen-year stretch Wheaton narrows the gaps in terms of CCIW winning percentage, CCIW titles, and D3 playoff appearances, but NCC still dominates in those categories; ergo, North Central is still the most successful program in the league if you use as the starting date the day that the school hired John Thorne.

There is no subjectivity at work here. Again, my argument regards John Thorne, vis-a-vis suburban recruiting, so the years that I'm measuring are not the least bit arbitrary.

Makes sense to me!
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Offline USee

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36605 on: January 10, 2019, 01:42:51 pm »
We can agree to disagree. There is a difference between subjectivity and bias. I agree you have no bias, but you absolutely are using subjective data sets for a deliberate point. 15 years is  subjective, to fit your argument. 2 decades is as simple to say and the data comes out differently.

Yes, but again, two decades makes absolutely no contextual sense. Your two-decade yardstick is absolutely irrelevant to the discussion. This is all about Mark's assertion regarding suburban Chicagoland recruiting. The fulcrum of the whole issue regarding suburban recruiting is John Thorne, because I believe that he is the explanation for the difference between NCC's football fortunes and Elmhurst's. (NCC fans, if you disagree with me about that, feel free to chime in ... after all, it's your program, not mine.) There's really two ways that I could've gone about making my point:

* NCC is the most successful program in the league over the past fifteen years (which is what I used), based upon my estimate of when the Cardinals' two-deep became Thorne-dominated rather than DeGeorge-dominated with regard to recruiting; or

* NCC is the most successful program in the league over the past seventeen years. That would've covered the entirety of the tenures of Thornes pere and fils in Naperville. I'm less inclined to use this yardstick, because I'm reluctant to hold John Thorne responsible for how well he coached teams that he didn't bring into the program, considering that this discussion is all about his recruiting acumen. Over that seventeen-year stretch Wheaton narrows the gaps in terms of CCIW winning percentage, CCIW titles, and D3 playoff appearances, but NCC still dominates in those categories; ergo, North Central is still the most successful program in the league if you use as the starting date the day that the school hired John Thorne.

There is no subjectivity at work here. Again, my argument regards John Thorne, vis-a-vis suburban recruiting, so the years that I'm measuring are not the least bit arbitrary.

We differ on several points that are not worth the labor to discuss. You and I are having a different discussion than the one you and Mark are having. My point is not a contextual one and I definitely have a different definition of subjective than you do.
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36606 on: January 10, 2019, 02:17:15 pm »
We can agree to disagree. There is a difference between subjectivity and bias. I agree you have no bias, but you absolutely are using subjective data sets for a deliberate point. 15 years is  subjective, to fit your argument. 2 decades is as simple to say and the data comes out differently.

Yes, but again, two decades makes absolutely no contextual sense. Your two-decade yardstick is absolutely irrelevant to the discussion. This is all about Mark's assertion regarding suburban Chicagoland recruiting. The fulcrum of the whole issue regarding suburban recruiting is John Thorne, because I believe that he is the explanation for the difference between NCC's football fortunes and Elmhurst's. (NCC fans, if you disagree with me about that, feel free to chime in ... after all, it's your program, not mine.) There's really two ways that I could've gone about making my point:

* NCC is the most successful program in the league over the past fifteen years (which is what I used), based upon my estimate of when the Cardinals' two-deep became Thorne-dominated rather than DeGeorge-dominated with regard to recruiting; or

* NCC is the most successful program in the league over the past seventeen years. That would've covered the entirety of the tenures of Thornes pere and fils in Naperville. I'm less inclined to use this yardstick, because I'm reluctant to hold John Thorne responsible for how well he coached teams that he didn't bring into the program, considering that this discussion is all about his recruiting acumen. Over that seventeen-year stretch Wheaton narrows the gaps in terms of CCIW winning percentage, CCIW titles, and D3 playoff appearances, but NCC still dominates in those categories; ergo, North Central is still the most successful program in the league if you use as the starting date the day that the school hired John Thorne.

There is no subjectivity at work here. Again, my argument regards John Thorne, vis-a-vis suburban recruiting, so the years that I'm measuring are not the least bit arbitrary.

We differ on several points that are not worth the labor to discuss. You and I are having a different discussion than the one you and Mark are having. My point is not a contextual one and I definitely have a different definition of subjective than you do.

The definition of subjective is....subjective.  This is getting very meta. 

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Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36607 on: January 10, 2019, 02:30:31 pm »
You and I are having a different discussion than the one you and Mark are having.

I don't think that we are. I'm only involved in one discussion, which has as its thesis the stated proof that North Central is the most successful football program in the CCIW over the past fifteen seasons. Whatever you're discussing is your own business.
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Offline USee

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36608 on: January 10, 2019, 02:47:51 pm »
You and I are having a different discussion than the one you and Mark are having.

I don't think that we are. I'm only involved in one discussion, which has as its thesis the stated proof that North Central is the most successful football program in the CCIW over the past fifteen seasons. Whatever you're discussing is your own business.

You just defined what it means to be having 2 different discussions while denying it’s actually happening.
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Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36609 on: January 10, 2019, 03:16:09 pm »
 ???

If anything, I'm having two discussions about topics that appear to be only distantly related at best. The first is the one that I mentioned, which is about the most successful football program in the CCIW over the past fifteen seasons. The second is over whether or not you and I are having a different discussion than the one that Mark and I were having. ;)

Whether that second one is a genuine argument or not seems to have been fairly well covered by Monty Python once upon a time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lvcnx6-0GhA
"Talent is God-given. Be humble. Fame is man-given. Be grateful. Conceit is self-given. Be careful..” -- John Wooden

Offline USee

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36610 on: January 10, 2019, 03:58:16 pm »
???

If anything, I'm having two discussions about topics that appear to be only distantly related at best. The first is the one that I mentioned, which is about the most successful football program in the CCIW over the past fifteen seasons. The second is over whether or not you and I are having a different discussion than the one that Mark and I were having. ;)

Whether that second one is a genuine argument or not seems to have been fairly well covered by Monty Python once upon a time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lvcnx6-0GhA

I think I can objectively say you have been the most successful CCIW poster over the last 15 posts in this forum.
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Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36611 on: January 10, 2019, 04:01:45 pm »
No, I'm not!
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Offline formerd3db

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36612 on: January 10, 2019, 07:42:46 pm »
???

If anything, I'm having two discussions about topics that appear to be only distantly related at best. The first is the one that I mentioned, which is about the most successful football program in the CCIW over the past fifteen seasons. The second is over whether or not you and I are having a different discussion than the one that Mark and I were having. ;)

Whether that second one is a genuine argument or not seems to have been fairly well covered by Monty Python once upon a time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lvcnx6-0GhA

You are right about the first, but wrong about the second- the latter is a spirited debated discussion!😀☺
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Offline USee

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36613 on: January 17, 2019, 11:23:14 am »
It was noted on the basketball board that Wheaton added Luke Anthony, a transfer from Dayton, and he is eligible right away and currently playing a significant role on the Basketball team. Luke will also play football and was red shirted at Dayton as a Quarterback. Anthony was a 2 time First Team All Conference QB at Wheaton North and an All Area player. Considering Wheaton's need at QB, this is a big pick up. He should have 3 years of eligibility for the Thunder.
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Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #36614 on: January 17, 2019, 11:49:18 am »
Why wouldn't he have four years of eligibility?
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