Author Topic: Top 25 talk  (Read 595758 times)

Offline Mr. Ypsi

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7170 on: December 10, 2012, 11:17:26 pm »
NOT a good outing for UST.  For the #5 ranked team to get nearly whipped by a 2-7 team from the UMAC is NOT a way to attract votes! 8-)

Offline nescac1

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7171 on: December 11, 2012, 06:56:24 am »
Wow.  I don't think I've ever seen a D-3 hoops Top 25 poll that was so out of whack in terms of its rating of New England teams at this point in the season.  How on earth can Amherst be ranked seven spots ahead of Williams??? And what has Amherst done to be deserved to be ranked at ALL?  Let's compare their resumes:

Amherst is 7-2 with no wins against any teams receiving votes in the poll. It has two credible wins: a home win vs. Brandeis and a home win vs. Curry -- a team that Williams beat on the road.  Amherst lost to Springfield, a team that Williams absolutely dominated on the road just a few days later (Williams won by 16, but was up by 29 before garbage time).  Williams' only loss was a close loss to a solid ARV Stevens team, a much better loss than Amherst's recent home loss to a mediocre Babson team.  Williams has solid road wins vs. Wesleyan, Curry, and Springfield.  So Williams has a better record vs. a better schedule, including one illuminating comparative game vs. Springfield, a team which dominated Amherst for most of the game on a neutral court and was in turn dominated by Williams for most of the game despite playing at home.  And its not as if Williams is a team that came out of nowhere ... it's a squad that made two straight final fours before having a relatively down (but still not atrocious) year last year attributable entirely to basically the most flukey spate of injuries I've seen in decades as a Williams fan, where most of the team was playing through severely limiting injuries for most of the season, and where the only two contributing graduated players from that team were among the walking wounded and frankly just were not assets on the court.  Now the team is basically healthy and playing to its ability level.  Meanwhile, Amherst, while talented, had a big perceived flaw exacerbated by graduation of a class with strong perimeter skills -- a serious lack of outside shooting -- and that flaw is continuing to cost it in games.  The Jeffs have also been very spotty on defense this season.

The statistics also indicate that Williams has played at a substantially higher level than Amherst.  Williams is outscoring opponents by 23 pg and outrebounding opponents by 11 rpg, Amherst's figures are 15 ppg and 9 rpg respectively, against a much worse schedule, including only ONE road game (and two neutral court games) (Williams has played four true road games).  Amherst is being outshot .39 percent to .34 percent from three point range which, if it continues, is going to be a BIG problem for the Jeffs when they start facing better teams.  Williams shoots considerably better from both two and three point range than Amherst, and holds its opponents to considerably lower shooting percentages from both two and three range. 

I realize that early in the season, there are still residual effects from last year, but let's face it, nine games is enough of a sample size to realize that Williams is substantially improved, and Amherst substantially worse, than teams which, when they faced each other last year, played two games that came down to the last shot. 

I think it's also wrong for RIC to be ranked above Williams after two straight losses, one of which was not a very good home loss, in a week where Williams put up three wins including the convincing road win over Springfield.  But at least there you have an argument since RIC has played a strong schedule, much stronger than Amherst's. 

I question whether this Williams team is a top five team, although I think the upside potential on this team is similar to the 2011 Final Four squad, as the Ephs once again have an elite point guard-post combo (not as good as 2011's version featuring All Americans at both positions, but not as far behind as you might think) while also being MUCH stronger at forward this go-around.  But I think there is no question they will be a top 20 team when all is said and done, and I have a LOT of questions about whether Amherst belongs, although we may not know about the Jeffs until they finally start playing some tough road games late in the season.  I guess time will tell ...

Offline Roundball999

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7172 on: December 11, 2012, 08:22:15 am »
Massey Ratings seem to agree with you about Williams relative to Amherst, but disagrees that either is a Top 20 team.  They have Williams at #26 and Amherst at #89.  RIC is at #94.

Offline Greek Tragedy

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7173 on: December 11, 2012, 09:45:44 am »
There's always been an argument of why they even have preseason polls.  It all has to do on where they start the season. If you look at the preseason poll, Amherst started out in 5th with 453 points after finishing last year in 8th.  Williams, on the other hand, began with 27 points.  That's a 426-point difference.  In Week 1, Amherst actually gained 32 points after a 3-0 start, moving up to 485 points. Williams jumped 66 points to 93, moving into the Top 25 at 24th after a 4-0 start.  Williams then lost AT HOME to Stevens, which resulted in an 83-point drop to 10 votes.  In the mean time, Amherst also lost on a neutral court, to Springfield.  They dropped 135 points to 350. Lastly, Amherst again lost and dropped 239 points to 111.  On the other hand, Williams gained 27 points in a week, to move to 37 points.  So if you look at it, despite losing a game throughout the early part of the year, Williams actually GAINED 10 points.  Amherst, losing twice so far, dropped 342 points from the preseason.  Williams has gained 352 points on Amherst.  That's pretty good, I think, considering they've lost just one less game than Amherst.  I think my math is right.

Preseason
Amherst 453
Williams 27

Week 1
Amherst 485
Williams 93

Week 2
Amherst 350
Williams 10

Week 3
Amherst 111
Williams 37
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Offline nescac1

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7174 on: December 11, 2012, 10:09:58 am »
Greek Tragedy, I think your explanation for why they are positioned that way makes perfect sense, but sometimes voters just have to discount where they placed teams in preseason based on the available evidence.  MIT is a perfect example -- they would have certainly been a top five team if healthy, but given the guys they are missing, they simply aren't a contending team right now, and the poll belatedly recognized that (although finally did so).  Amherst, too, was clearly overrated to start the season ... looking to their record from last year was a bit deceptive, as they beat Midd and Williams four times, but by a combined eight points, including a few in which last second shots just missed for the opponent (and 3/4 were also at home).  They had some flaws last year which F&M exposed, and then lost some key players, in particular Taylor Barrise, whose dead-eye shooting really opened up the rest of the floor for his teammates.  Without anyone to fill that role on the roster, Amherst has struggled bit.  They are still a talented team and given the fairly easy schedule they face over the next month, they will probably not only stay in the poll, but gradually improve, even though they won't have faced a single team receiving votes in a current Top 25 poll until January 23(!), and nonetheless will have (at least) two losses and generally played uninspired ball.

This is a case where voters should simply forget about where they had a team ranked pre-season and adjust expecations accordingly.  Same with Williams, which is  still being punished for last year, a flukey year filled with injuries and tough-luck losses, rather than the caliber of play and talent on the this year's roster. 

Offline madzillagd

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7175 on: December 11, 2012, 12:20:50 pm »
Posted on the NESCAC board but I throw this out here as well....

Itís with considerable hesitation that I come forward and post this.  Iím concerned for my own safety and the safety of my family but I think the truth needs to get out.  NESCAC1, you do not need to be upset about the new Top 25 rankings and specifically the inclusion of Amherst and the exclusion of Williams.  I know this defies all logic pertaining to how basketball teams are ranked: Wins/Losses, Strength of Schedule, Common Opponents, Point Differential, etc.  However, what Iím here to tell you is that in this case there is something more devious afoot that goes far beyond the basketball court.

Yesterday, the D3Hoops agent pictured below was captured and in his possession was hard evidence of a far reaching conspiracy.  This evidence came in the form of a hardcopy letter sent from Pat Coleman, aka The Don, to the voters of D3Hoops Top 25.  The contents of the letter explain it all:




From the Desk of the DonÖ

Dear Minions,

It has come to my attention that after the success of Operation Nerd and Operation 138, that our site traffic has started to lag and as you know this directly impacts the steady flow of riches to my lair.  As you recall, our preseason ranking of MIT at #1 was simply a ploy to pull people in to the site and start the site hits early.  We all knew MIT did not possess Weapons of Mass Execution but by downplaying our knowledge of the team we worked the rankings to perfection.  Furthermore, our sleeper cell Jack Taylor did a tremendous job with Operation 138 and the national media hits were at an all-time high as a result. 

Alas, the early season success has started to lag and we need to continue to look for new ways to boost the site.  Although it may be going to the well once to often, as your fearless leader I propose we use the Top 25 gag one more time to drive traffic.  Ranking a new #1 that canít maintain that spot is too obvious and would easily be spotted the users so Iíve come up with something a bit more complex. 

This week I would like you all to rank Amherst above Williams in the polls.  If you look at the results of the two clubs itís clear that Williams has outperformed Amherst at this point in the season but that is the beauty of this plan.  The key is - the Williams fans KNOW they deserve to be ranked above Amherst, their arch rival, and that knowledge will drive them to the site.  Theyíll post the records, the common opponents, how the teams played.  All that will accomplish is stirring up the angst of other teams that feel they too are deserving.  They in turn will post about their team, giving the reasons why they should be in the Top 25.  The traffic will grow exponentially while we sit back and count our money.  Itís perfect. 

From this point forward we will refer to this poll mischief as: Operation Troll.

Sincerely,
Pat Coleman
The Don



I for one am not going to take the bait and I suggest you follow suit.  If you do not hear from me again soon you know what happened.

Offline Roundball999

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7176 on: December 11, 2012, 12:56:56 pm »
Well done!  :)

Offline gordonmann

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7177 on: December 11, 2012, 01:00:52 pm »
That's outstanding. :)

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7178 on: December 11, 2012, 07:38:43 pm »
Posted on the NESCAC board but I throw this out here as well....

Itís with considerable hesitation that I come forward and post this.  Iím concerned for my own safety and the safety of my family but I think the truth needs to get out.  NESCAC1, you do not need to be upset about the new Top 25 rankings and specifically the inclusion of Amherst and the exclusion of Williams.  I know this defies all logic pertaining to how basketball teams are ranked: Wins/Losses, Strength of Schedule, Common Opponents, Point Differential, etc.  However, what Iím here to tell you is that in this case there is something more devious afoot that goes far beyond the basketball court.

Yesterday, the D3Hoops agent pictured below was captured and in his possession was hard evidence of a far reaching conspiracy.  This evidence came in the form of a hardcopy letter sent from Pat Coleman, aka The Don, to the voters of D3Hoops Top 25.  The contents of the letter explain it all:




From the Desk of the DonÖ

Dear Minions,

It has come to my attention that after the success of Operation Nerd and Operation 138, that our site traffic has started to lag and as you know this directly impacts the steady flow of riches to my lair.  As you recall, our preseason ranking of MIT at #1 was simply a ploy to pull people in to the site and start the site hits early.  We all knew MIT did not possess Weapons of Mass Execution but by downplaying our knowledge of the team we worked the rankings to perfection.  Furthermore, our sleeper cell Jack Taylor did a tremendous job with Operation 138 and the national media hits were at an all-time high as a result. 

Alas, the early season success has started to lag and we need to continue to look for new ways to boost the site.  Although it may be going to the well once to often, as your fearless leader I propose we use the Top 25 gag one more time to drive traffic.  Ranking a new #1 that canít maintain that spot is too obvious and would easily be spotted the users so Iíve come up with something a bit more complex. 

This week I would like you all to rank Amherst above Williams in the polls.  If you look at the results of the two clubs itís clear that Williams has outperformed Amherst at this point in the season but that is the beauty of this plan.  The key is - the Williams fans KNOW they deserve to be ranked above Amherst, their arch rival, and that knowledge will drive them to the site.  Theyíll post the records, the common opponents, how the teams played.  All that will accomplish is stirring up the angst of other teams that feel they too are deserving.  They in turn will post about their team, giving the reasons why they should be in the Top 25.  The traffic will grow exponentially while we sit back and count our money.  Itís perfect. 

From this point forward we will refer to this poll mischief as: Operation Troll.

Sincerely,
Pat Coleman
The Don



I for one am not going to take the bait and I suggest you follow suit.  If you do not hear from me again soon you know what happened.
:) :) :)
Not trying put words in his mouth, but did he just basically say...

"Eph 'em!"

Offline tomt4525

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7179 on: December 12, 2012, 09:49:03 pm »
#6 Wisconsin Stevens Point knocks off defending national champion #2 Wisconsin Whitewater in Whitewater tonight...72-61...Preseason All American Tyler Tillema for UWSP goes down with a sprained ankle at the end of the first half and doesn't return.

Offline Darryl Nester

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7180 on: December 13, 2012, 08:11:46 am »
How They Fared (So Far)

Quite a few idle teams as many schools have finals this week ...

Top 25
Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#1611Virginia Wesleyan7-0IDLE
#2602UW-Whitewater7-1LOST to #6 UW-Stevens Point, 61-72
#3571Middlebury8-0IDLE
#4552North Central (Ill.)8-0def. UW-Platteville, 73-64; 12/15 at Benedictine
#5531St. Thomas8-0won at Bethany Lutheran, 94-91
#6465UW-Stevens Point8-0won at #2 UW-Whitewater, 72-61; 12/15 vs. Edgewood
#7430Franklin and Marshall      7-0IDLE
#8414Rochester10-0IDLE
#9383Wheaton (Ill.)9-0def. Cornell, 75-61; 12/14 at Northwestern (Minn.); 12/15 at North Central (Minn.)
#10367Washington U.8-112/15 vs. Elmhurst
#11365Ramapo7-0def. Rutgers-Newark, 79-52; 12/15 vs. St. Joseph's (L.I.)
#12296Wooster6-112/14 at Kenyon
#13279Whitworth5-112/15 at Occidental
#14271Adrian7-0IDLE
#15198Catholic6-112/15 at Gallaudet
#16195Scranton6-112/15 vs. Keystone
#17192St. Mary's (Md.)7-1IDLE
#18189Illinois Wesleyan5-212/15 vs. Chicago
#19168WPI10-0IDLE
#20160Christopher Newport5-1IDLE
#21137Albertus Magnus7-0IDLE
#22111Amherst8-2won at Anna Maria, 94-67
#2381Ohio Wesleyan7-1IDLE
#2473Rhode Island College7-2IDLE
#2557New York University6-1IDLE

Others receiving votes
Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#2652MIT7-212/13 at Bridgewater State
#2749Augustana7-1def. Knox, 84-49; 12/13 at Fontbonne; 12/16 at MacMurray
#2845Carroll7-1def. Milwaukee Engineering, 64-34; 12/15 vs. Ripon
T#2937Hampden-Sydney8-1IDLE
T#2937Williams8-1IDLE
#3134UW-Stout9-1def. UW-River Falls, 62-52
T#3232Whitman6-2IDLE
T#3232Rose-Hulman8-1def. Millikin, 67-43; 12/15 vs. Hanover
#3431North Carolina Wesleyan 7-112/15 at Guilford
#3517Augsburg7-0IDLE
#3616Stevens6-1IDLE
#3714Birmingham-Southern4-212/15 at Millsaps
#3812Salisbury8-1IDLE
#399Bethany8-1def. Frostburg State, 96-55; 12/15 vs. Olivet
#405Lycoming7-112/14 vs. Messiah; 12/16 vs. King's
T#412Randolph8-012/15 vs. Methodist
T#412UW-La Crosse8-1IDLE
#431Oswego State6-112/14 at Cazenovia

Offline madzillagd

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7181 on: December 13, 2012, 02:08:01 pm »
Slow week on the Top 25 and even when there is an upset it really isn't an upset with both teams likely to stay in the Top 10.  Maybe just switch places? 

Offline John Gleich

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7182 on: December 14, 2012, 01:50:59 pm »
Slow week on the Top 25 and even when there is an upset it really isn't an upset with both teams likely to stay in the Top 10.  Maybe just switch places?

I think it's still an upset. Remember, Whitewater is the defending national champion. They're also the defending conference champion and tough to beat on their home floor.

In terms of swapping spots... I think this next top 25 will be very interesting.  I don't think it's quite as easy as just swapping spots.


Let's look at what has happened in the top 25's thus far this year.


First, let's remember how things finished last year:

1. UW Whitewater (25)
2. Cabrini
3. Illinois Wesleyan
4. MIT
5. Virginia Wesleyan
6. Hope
7. Franklin and Marshall
8. Amherst
9. Middlebury


And this was the preseason poll:

         Preseason                     
                              
   #      School (1st votes)      Rec      Pts      Final   
   1      MIT (12)      29-2      594      4   
   2      Virginia Wesleyan (3)      27-4      585      5   
   3      UW-Whitewater (10)      29-4      543      1   
   4      Middlebury      26-4      474      9   
   5      Amherst      26-3      453      8   
   6      North Central (Ill.)      22-8      444      16   
   7      Hope      27-2      417      6   
   8      Illinois Wesleyan      23-8      380      3   

So, essentially, Whitewater retained 10 votes, lost 12 to MIT, and lost 3 to Virginia Wesleyan.


         Week 1                     
                              
   #      School (1st votes)      Rec      Pts      Prev.   
   1      MIT (10)      4-0      600      1   
   2      Virginia Wesleyan (6)      2-0      599      2   
   3      UW-Whitewater (8)      3-0      580      3   
   4      Middlebury      4-0      546      4   
   5      North Central (Ill.)      4-0      508      6   
   6      Amherst      3-0      485      5   
   7      Illinois Wesleyan      4-0      439      8   
   8      St. Thomas (1)      3-0      428      11   
                              

After a week of play, Whitewater lost two more votes. MIT also lost two votes. Three of those votes went to Virginia Wesleyan, and one of them went to St. Thomas. One pollster certainly help UST in high regard, as they were averaging being at about the 9 slow on ther other 24 ballots.  It's also interesting to note that, while MIT lost two 1st place votes, they gained 6 poll points, and Whitewater, despite losing two 1st place votes, gained 37.  So there seems to be some solidification at the top. This makes sense in one respect... Preseason pollsters only had last year's top 25, plus the new year's perspectuses (....perspecti?) to go off of. With week one, they have a couple of weeks worth of games, plus they have the preseason poll. This gives them lots and lots of information... it shows them where the other pollsters are slotting these teams as well. So, take Whitewater for example. They were 3rd, with 10 first place votes, and 543 poll points. If you take away the 10 first place votes, they averaged being slotted almost exactly in 6.5th (half picked them 6, the other half 7).  After one week, they did lost two first place votes, but if you take away the 8 first place votes, the other 17 pollsters slotted them at about 3.5th. They improved by an average of about three slots in the poll (the math's not perfect... we're talking about 15 votes slotting them 6.5th and 17 voters slotting them 3.5th, and it's certainly plausible that the two voters that jumped from WW to a different team just dropped WW 1 spot... but even if you assume that and subtract off the two fairly-certain 2nd place voters, it goes from and average of 3.64 to 3.86... not a huge difference, but a sizable enough jump from 6.47 in the preseason).

         Week 2                     
                              
   #      School (1st votes)      Rec      Pts      Prev.   
   1      Virginia Wesleyan (13)      5-0      611      2   
   2      UW-Whitewater (10)      5-0      601      3   
   3      Middlebury (1)      6-0      563      4   
   4      North Central (Ill.)      6-0      549      5   
   5      St. Thomas (1)      5-0      517      8   
   6      Washington U.      7-0      454      10   
   7      UW-Stevens Point      5-0      442      9   
                              


So, MIT lost, and they dropped a massive amount of points... from 600 poll points and 10 first place votes to 18th and 180 poll points. They did lose at home and they were manhandled in the process by RIC, but I'm pretty sure (and Pat tweeted out that he thought so too, after the new poll in week 2) that this is the largest drop that a first place team has ever had in a poll.

So 10 first place votes had to find a home.  7 went to Va. Wesleyan, 2 went back to Whitewater, and 1 went to Middlebury.


So, one question is this... did the two voters that left Whitewater go back to them? Or were they two other voters?  We'll never know, but it'll make you crazy if you think about it enough  :-X  ::)  :o     ;D

Oh, and by the way, St. Thomas still had one #1 fan.


         Week 3                     
                              
   #      School (1st votes)      Rec      Pts      Prev.   
   1      Virginia Wesleyan (12)      7-0      611      1   
   2      UW-Whitewater (11)      7-0      602      2   
   3      Middlebury (1)      8-0      571      3   
   4      North Central (Ill.)      7-0      552      4   
   5      St. Thomas (1)      7-0      531      5   
   6      UW-Stevens Point      7-0      465      7   
   7      Franklin and Marshall      7-0      430      8   
                              


So, now we get to last week's vote. The only movement (unless the Tommy Fan or the Panther Fan switched... and somebody else switched on... again, it'll drive ya nuts if you think too hard!) was one vote from VWU to UWW.

It's interesting how little movement there is at this point. Though we have a #1 team, it's not a concensus #1. Also interesting is how, though VWU lost a 1st place vote, they didn't lost any poll points. So they lost a #1, but someone else moved them up a slot... from #3 to #2, or something like that.

So, now the 11 first place votes of Whitewater (seemingly... it's not a given, but it's likely) have to be spread out. I'd say the one that jumped from VWU to UWW will jump back... so that would just leave 10.

And your guess is as good as mine there they'll go. But I don't think that UWSP will pick them all up. Point might not even pick any up.

The disparity between slots jumps from St. Thomas to Stevens Point.

VWU to UWW: 9 points
UWW to Middlebury: 31 points
Middlebury to North Central: 19 points
North Central to St. Thomas: 21 points
St. Thomas to Stevens Point: 66 points

And remember, an average spot in the poll equalf 25 points (1 additional point from each voter). So the spread between Whitewater and Stevens Point (137) was about 5.5 slots on the average ballot.



So what will the top 25 look like next week? The two remaining games are a rivalry game (North Central and Benedictine are playing in the "Battle of Maple Ave." The two schools are about 3 miles apart) and UWSP's tilt against Edgewood. I don't expect that either will be too difficult for the top 10 teams... both teams are 2-7.

If I was a voter who had slated St. Thomas above Stevens Point all year, I might be hesitant to pump the Pointers above the Tommies at this point, even with SP's big win. After all, we do have next Friday's "Mayan Special" in St. Paul to look forward to next week, and that could go pretty far in terms of slotting these West Region foes into their appropriate spot in the top 25.


For those looking ahead... Since the Tommies and Pointers started their series a few years ago, the games have always gone to the home team.

08-09 NCAA tournament @ UST: 53-50 Tommies win
09-10 reg season @ UWSP: 78-56 Pointer win
10-11 reg season @ UST: 61-54 Tommies win
10-11 NCAA tournament @ Augustana: 66-64 Tommies win
11-12 reg season @ UWSP: 72-66 Pointer win
12-13 reg season @ UST: ? ? ?  :o ? ? ?


These teams also played once in 1974, a game the Tommies won. This is one of two series that UWSP has with D3 opponents of more than 1 game where they're not winning the overall series (Illinois Wesleyan is the other... Point is 1-3 against the Titans).
UWSP Men's Basketball

National Champions: 2010, 2005, 2004

NCAA appearances: 2014, '13, '12, '11, '10, '09, '08, '07, '05, '04, '03, '00, 1997

WIAC/WSUC Champs: 2014, '13, '11, '09, '07, '05, '03, '02, '01, '00, 1993, '92, '87, '86, '85, '84, '83, '82, '69, '61, '57, '48, '42, '37, '36, '35, '33, '18

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Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7183 on: December 14, 2012, 04:43:14 pm »
plus the new year's perspectuses (....perspecti?) to go off of.

Prospectuses.

Hey, you asked! ;)
ďIf you have a chance to help others and fail to do so, you are wasting your time on this earth.Ē ó Roberto Clemente

Offline John Gleich

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Re: Top 25 talk
« Reply #7184 on: December 14, 2012, 04:55:40 pm »
plus the new year's perspectuses (....perspecti?) to go off of.

Prospectuses.

Hey, you asked! ;)

Yeah, I looked it up.  But I was too lazy to go back and delete it once it was typed.


Ya know, Merrill Lynch could have cleared ALL of this up for us if, in their commercials, they pluralized perspectus.

"As your Merrill Lynch for some perspectuses..."


Maybe that's asking too much?
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