Author Topic: South Region playoffs  (Read 302006 times)

Offline jknezek

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2265 on: November 11, 2013, 09:53:04 am »
Even if Texas Lutheran defeats Howard Payne, it's hard to brush aside giving up 73 points to a sub-.500 team--even if that team was Hardin-Simmons with a very good SOS.  It would be one thing if TL lost 76-73 in 5 or 6 OTs.  But it is difficult to think of TL as a playoff team with a loss like that and an SOS that is near the bottom of the D-3 barrel.

If SOS has the meaning and importance that it is supposed to have, then Wash-U should move past Texas Lutheran...being only a half-game behind in the won-loss column, and a vastly superior SOS.  If Wash-U remains behind TL in this week's regional rankings, then the SOS stat should be removed from consideration by the committee...so everyone can then schedule the weakest slate of teams possible.

Mostly I agree with you, but you ignore some pertinent information about SOS. For example, any team that plays in a 10 team conference round robin has an SOS near .500. It doesn't matter how good the conference is, that SOS has to trend very close to .500 for all members. Similarly, a team that plays in an 8 team conference, if the members of the conference have scheduled weak opposition, can trend to a very high SOS based on sweeping OOC play. Again, it doesn't really matter how good the teams in the conference are, simply that they are better than their OOC schedule.

So SOS can not be judged in a vacuum. Wash U, while clearly playing a tough schedule this year (even including two first year teams), has the ability to make a strong SOS in a way other teams can't. TLU is basically playing the entire ASC minus UMHB. The ASC is traditionally the South's best conference, though this year seems to be a down year. Now is it a down year because the teams are actually weaker, or is it a down year because the teams scheduled difficult OOC matches, leading to sub .500 records for an 8 team conference? In this case, it's probably a bit of both so it has dragged TLU's SOS through the floor despite playing what, in many years, would be a very reputable schedule.

While I agree Wash U deserves to hit the table before TLU, I wouldn't base that argument on how SOS is supposed to work. I'm more inclined to agree with your 72 point analysis. Though I also find it difficult to put a team on the table that has 2 losses and squeaked out a 7-0 win over Macalaster. On the upside, the Bears did win, on the downside it's a hold your nose and close your eyes when you vote kind of win when you look at a body of work that includes scoring double digits on only ONE team that has above a .500 record.

My money, right now, would go Millsaps, Wesley, Framingham St. In Pool C for the South I would line up TMC before Wash U based on the criteria, but Wash U before TLU. Objectively, having two losses is almost always a killer for an at-large. Coe dropping from contention kills the "we lost to two great teams close" idea, so you are hanging your hat on a close loss to UWW early and wins over Rhodes, Centre, and probably Chicago, none of whom look as good as they did 3 weeks ago.

Offline ExTartanPlayer

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2266 on: November 11, 2013, 10:26:26 am »
I agree with jknezek's point on the necessity of context when interpreting the SOS numbers.  Incidentally, that's the same argument I've been using against over-weighting Wesley's #1 SOS ranking (although WashU has a lot more games while Wesley only has 6).

WashU and TLU present an interesting dichotomy.  At first blush, I say WashU has played a tougher schedule and notched more quality wins (plus a high-quality loss against UWW, a game that they led into the fourth quarter).  As jknezek notes, WashU just doesn't score much; it's like that old saw about a running back "If you need two yards, he'll get you three; if you need six yards, he'll get you three" with WashU's offense.  If you need 10 points to win, they'll get you 10.  If you need 24 to win, they'll get you 10.  But their defense is so darn good that they keep winning, even if it means 7-0 wins against Macalester and 9-7 against Carnegie Mellon.  Having seen them in person, I believe that they are capable of shutting down all but the best handful of teams in Division III (they did hold Whitewater to 17 points) and even the better teams they could "slow down" (i.e. they could hold Mount to like 34 instead of 58)...but they can't score against anybody good.  They can barely score against anybody, period.  And that last point jknezek makes re: the Coe loss hurts.  If Coe was 9-1 or 10-0 and in line for the IIAC's bid, WashU could play the card that they lost to two playoff teams in close, competitive games. 

TLU is kind of the opposite.  They score lots of points...and give up lots of points.  I'm really not sure who would win a hypothetical matchup between the two.  The only connection I can really find between them is that WashU's UAA peer Case Western beat Trinity by 4, the same margin as TLU, but that's impossible to interpret meaningfully given the differences in time of season and whatnot.

I'm honestly not sure who is a better playoff representative (i.e. which of them actually makes the playoffs more "competitive").  It really would depend on who they drew in the first round.  If TLU gets in, they might be able to score with the right first-round opponent; if WashU gets in, they might be able to shut down the right first-round opponent.  I will be interested to see where they end up in the rankings.

Offline PA_wesleyfan

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2267 on: November 11, 2013, 07:42:19 pm »
 When it comes down to B and C bids we are all usually left scratching our heads about at least one bid. Someone always gets left out that we feel should be in! I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised. LOL
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Offline jknezek

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2268 on: November 11, 2013, 07:48:01 pm »
When it comes down to B and C bids we are all usually left scratching our heads about at least one bid. Someone always gets left out that we feel should be in! I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised. LOL

Completely true. On the other hand, if we are talking about 1 or 2 out of 8 selections (5C + 3B) it's really not a big deal. Understandably a big deal to the team that feels shafted, but toward the bottom of the selection barrel the teams start to look so much alike, and all of them have something that is their fault for leaving them sitting on the table, it's not really an issue for me. By the time you get to "whose wart is ugliest" you realize all of them grew their own warts making selection an iffy proposition.

Offline cover2

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2269 on: November 16, 2013, 10:17:37 pm »
So, if I'm reading the projections correctly, and seeds hold in the South, that would have UMHB with 2 rematches in the first 2 rounds, correct?  Is that unavoidable or will it matter to the committee?

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2270 on: November 16, 2013, 10:46:38 pm »
Yes, the brackets make sense.  Sorry TLU and Millsaps.  'Saps will have the Pool A in 2015, (I think.)

Offline PA_wesleyfan

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2271 on: November 16, 2013, 10:49:25 pm »
So, if I'm reading the projections correctly, and seeds hold in the South, that would have UMHB with 2 rematches in the first 2 rounds, correct?  Is that unavoidable or will it matter to the committee?



  Not really because more than likely all the south teams are not staying in the south or UMHB bracket. Last year the committee moved teams all over the map. And with some of the auto bid teams losing today it doesn't sit well for high seeds for many of the south teams beyond Johns Hopkins and UMHB
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Offline PA_wesleyfan

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2272 on: November 16, 2013, 10:52:32 pm »
Yes, the brackets make sense.  Sorry TLU and Millsaps.  'Saps will have the Pool A in 2015, (I think.)

  RaLph

 JHU has probably earned a no. 2 seed correct? I would think that would leave them in the south or do you think they throw them into a Mount Union Bracket as a two?

Football !!! The ultimate team sport. Anyone who plays DIII football is a winner...

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2273 on: November 16, 2013, 11:06:57 pm »
Yes, the brackets make sense.  Sorry TLU and Millsaps.  'Saps will have the Pool A in 2015, (I think.)

  RaLph

 JHU has probably earned a no. 2 seed correct? I would think that would leave them in the south or do you think they throw them into a Mount Union Bracket as a two?
PA, I like the South Bracket. They handle the geographic difficulties and leave the South intact.  There is nothing in the South this year.  Wash U gets there as a South Pool B but they are closer to the West and the North than the South.

Gallaudet is in DC. Rowan is just up from Wesley.

This is actually the Circumferential Bracket.  Look at the geographical location of these teams.   It is the "southern and eastern underbelly" of the qualifiers.  :)

Offline @d3jason

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2274 on: November 17, 2013, 05:16:44 pm »
"Circumferential." Love it!

Ralph are you inventing words again?

I need to use this in my classroom when I move a student away from peers that are making them less than productive.

Offline wesleydad

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2275 on: November 17, 2013, 05:47:46 pm »
So, if I'm reading the projections correctly, and seeds hold in the South, that would have UMHB with 2 rematches in the first 2 rounds, correct?  Is that unavoidable or will it matter to the committee?

maybe, maybe not.  It will be interesting to see how they break out the south.  If UMHB has to play Redlands and then Wesley then they would have to feel good about their situation.  But, if Redlands and Wesley are good, they say it is tough to beat a good team twice in the same season.  UMHB is one of the best teams in the country so I don't think they are going to worry about who they play.

Offline crufootball

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2276 on: November 17, 2013, 06:36:24 pm »
Pat seems to be indicating that Mount Union and UW-W are ahead of of UMHB and Bethel for the top #1's. But doesn't order typically follow a top left, bottom right, top right, bottom left pattern meaning it should be Mt. Union then UMHB?

Offline Toby Taff

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2277 on: November 17, 2013, 06:40:39 pm »
I'm pretty sure pat's right. Semis in whitewater if all seeds hold.
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2278 on: November 17, 2013, 06:42:19 pm »
"Circumferential." Love it!

Ralph are you inventing words again?

I need to use this in my classroom when I move a student away from peers that are making them less than productive.
Nah, just a standard vocabulary that one learns during the standard D-3 education.   ;)

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Re: South Region playoffs
« Reply #2279 on: November 17, 2013, 08:02:07 pm »
Mary Hardin-Baylor is in the exact same spot that Mount Union was in last year and Mount was the number 2 overall seed in the playoffs