Toad, what makes you say Williams will be down and that Amherst is very strong? Williams and Amherst were basically even last year -- with Amherst barely beating Williams, at Amherst, and earning the same record -- and Amherst suffered far more losses than Williams. Last year was really the year the Ephs were supposed to be down, losing a stellar Class of 2004 and Coach Farley and with very few seniors, and they played pretty well.
Williams returns basically its entire offensive line and could have the top line in the league, its entire receiving corps, which has size and talent and I think will perform far better this year, and two QB's who were very young and raw last year. The offense was really simple last year, given the inexperience at all of the skill positions, and I think they will be a lot more explosive this season. I believe Williams should start Pat Lucey at QB, who looked really good when he played last year, not a huge arm but accurate and a very effective runner. Gleason can also run a little and has a big arm, but needs to become more consistent and more accurate down the field.
Crawley is a huge loss at TB, but the Ephs have tons of options to replace him -- Catelli, Flynn (who could be very explosive), Weeks, and a highly regarded frosh in Brian Morrissey. They should, as a group, come close to Crawley's production, especially with a lot more experience at offensive line. Ephs do have some questions in the defensive front seven, but they have three d-lineman returning who started at times, and Ferson has all-league potential at LB. Plus, the Ephs clearly have the top defensive backfield in Nescac with the top six d-backs, including two all-leaguers, returning. The kicking game should be better as well. The only real question is up the middle at defensive tackle and middle linebacker.
Amherst, meanwhile, lost the league player of the year in Ladd, his top backup, their top receiver / returner, their QB, and their Center. That is a ton of losses to their offense. Amherst D should once again be great, but they did graduate some good LB's and most of the defensive backfield, so they could be susceptible to the pass.
I think Colby, Amherst, and Williams will all be pretty equal, but I think, at least on paper, Amherst has the least talented group of upper-classman among those three teams.