Author Topic: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference  (Read 216643 times)

Offline Purple Heys

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1215 on: June 18, 2019, 07:03:20 pm »
Linfield Hire:

https://www.d3baseball.com/notables/2019/06/spencer-hireded-at-linfield

2nd West Region HC that is a former Red Raider backstop...a trend?  I wonder if they will schedule Caltech now.
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Offline Purple Heys

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1216 on: June 18, 2019, 07:05:19 pm »
The West Region is the strongest in the country and deserveds more than 1 Pool C bid each every year.

Fixed it for you.   ;D
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Offline Jim Dixon

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1217 on: June 19, 2019, 12:20:23 pm »
One way to increase the number of Pool C bids is for the west region teams to stray outside the region.  The number of teams from other regions that visit a west coast team is far greater than those in the west going out of region. 

Offline Purple Heys

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1218 on: June 19, 2019, 05:29:08 pm »
One way to increase the number of Pool C bids is for the west region teams to stray outside the region.  The number of teams from other regions that visit a west coast team is far greater than those in the west going out of region.

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Offline Purple Heys

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1219 on: June 19, 2019, 05:31:54 pm »
One way to increase the number of Pool C bids is for the west region teams to stray outside the region.  The number of teams from other regions that visit a west coast team is far greater than those in the west going out of region.

And again!

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Offline Jim Dixon

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1220 on: June 20, 2019, 04:00:16 pm »
If you think that SOS is a key factor in getting a playoff bid, the West teams's best SOS ranking over the last five years is 26, similar to the NY region.  The West is dead last in number of teams with teams with an SOS ranked 20th or higher (2).  You should expect the west to get the same number of Pool C bids and they have: NY (5 Pool C bids in last five years), West (7)

Offline Purple Heys

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1221 on: June 21, 2019, 02:50:46 am »
If you think that SOS is a key factor in getting a playoff bid, the West teams's best SOS ranking over the last five years is 26, similar to the NY region.  The West is dead last in number of teams with teams with an SOS ranked 20th or higher (2).  You should expect the west to get the same number of Pool C bids and they have: NY (5 Pool C bids in last five years), West (7)

If I, for one, did think that, after reading your post I would no longer think that.  Are you making the case that SOS appears to be useless as a benchmarking stat for playoff selection?  Because the last 5 D3 champs were either from the New York Region (1) or the West Region (4).  Please clarify.
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Offline Jim Dixon

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1222 on: June 21, 2019, 12:52:44 pm »
Alas PH you are comparing apples and oranges.  SOS is a key factor in selecting at-large bids and is a strong predictor on who gets a bid. Once the field is selected, it is not nearly as important in determining the national champion.  Chapman is the only winner in the last five years that had an SOS in the top 10. Only one national champion in the last ten years won with an at-large bid (Texas-Tyler). Winning your conference is a much better predictor in determining who wins the WS, than SOS.  Winning your conference bid is a lousy predictor as no teams in this category has ever been given an at-large bid ;)
 

Offline Purple Heys

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1223 on: June 22, 2019, 03:32:07 am »
Alas PH you are comparing apples and oranges.  SOS is a key factor in selecting at-large bids and is a strong predictor on who gets a bid. Once the field is selected, it is not nearly as important in determining the national champion.  Chapman is the only winner in the last five years that had an SOS in the top 10. Only one national champion in the last ten years won with an at-large bid (Texas-Tyler). Winning your conference is a much better predictor in determining who wins the WS, than SOS.  Winning your conference bid is a lousy predictor as no teams in this category has ever been given an at-large bid ;)

“Alas” I’m not looking to set a comparison...more like trying to debunk the SOS as a worthwhile metric.  I understood your post as suggesting that West Region teams should go to build SOS, presumably because by beating all those “better” teams (that otherwise end up with better SOS), the West Region would then achieve the SOS rating needed to qualify - not win, mind you in the playoffs...because 4 of the last 5 WS champs actually had the temerity to have low SOS.

What I am trying to do is learn why SOS continues to be used, when it may well have no correlation to getting the best at large teams.  I suppose somewhere some wonk says, “we gotta have a way to compare teams mathematically and objectively”.  Which seems reasonable...but baseball defies that SOS comparison and is unlike football and basketball when one considers that football plays once a week with generally static lineups, and basketball plays multiple games but also plays with static lineups.  I don’t think St. John’s is going to start their left handed cornerbacks against the righty QB from Carlton and their righty corners against St. Olaf’s lefty.

Baseball lineups are not static and teams play several games a week.  A different pitcher every game, a week where a team has a league series on the weekend but must play a non-league on Thursday so they staff pitch Freshmen and Sophs...SOS is a lazy man’s stat for baseball.  But I read that “SOS is a key factor in selecting at large bids”.  Choosing at large participants for playoff should be looking to include the best remaining teams.  Based on who’s winning the WS, SOS does not appear to serve that effort very well.
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Offline Purple Heys

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1224 on: June 22, 2019, 03:36:01 am »
Ya know, this just occurred to me...this thread would never be happening on the NWC page if Linfield had a good team this past season, because the NWC board would be overrun by Wildcat fans.

 ;D
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Offline Jim Dixon

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Re: BB: NWC: Northwest Conference
« Reply #1225 on: June 22, 2019, 01:49:21 pm »
I think SOS is used to try to find a metric that a team can control to some extent. Now scheduling Linfield last season was a nod to a better SOS but the Wildcats did not cooperate.