Author Topic: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference  (Read 487026 times)

Offline CUAfan

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #825 on: March 23, 2008, 08:55:37 pm »
My picks for next weekend:

Ozarks sweeps LeTourneau
Mary Hardin-Baylor sweeps Texas Lutheran
Texas-Tyler sweeps Texas-Dallas
Louisiana College takes 2 from East Texas Baptist
Hardin-Simmons takes 2 from Concordia-Texas
Howard Payne takes 2 from Sul Ross State
McMurry sweeps Schreiner
Let's go 'Nados!

Offline Just_Some_Guy

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #826 on: March 24, 2008, 01:31:10 am »
My picks for next weekend:
Hardin-Simmons takes 2 from Concordia-Texas

CUAfan,

I'd be interested in hearing a little commentary regarding your rationale on this one. Not because I disagree, but primarily because I thought it was an interesting pic. (You might know something I don't).

Think HSU is bouncing back strong looking for revenge after dropping two to Schreiner? Seems to me some of the HSU hitters that started off really hot are settling down around where we can expect. The most runs they've scored is 6 in conference, and CUA usually swings it well. If they have to out hit them, they might be in trouble.

JSG

 

Offline CUAfan

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #827 on: March 24, 2008, 11:12:34 am »
Sure, no problem JSG.

After last weekend, CTX and HSU had second-order winning percentages of .660 and .541, respectively. Using a formula I found here, I figured up that on a neutral site, CTX would have a 62% chance of winning any single game against HSU...but it's not at a neutral site. Because these particular games are being played in Abilene, I used a method (also described in the link above) to give HSU a boost for playing at home (.129 to be specific), which wound up giving HSU a 51.1% chance of winning any single game at home against CTX. With the odds ever so slightly in HSU's favor by the numbers, but since it's so close to being even, my gut says HSU finds a way to take 2 games but that CTX "beats the odds" and wins one. It wouldn't shock me in the least if CTX won 2 or swept though.
Let's go 'Nados!

Offline Blackcat00

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #828 on: March 24, 2008, 12:19:49 pm »
Well I got a formula for you, Concordia takes 2 of 3. and that took me about 5 seconds to figure out.

Offline baseballfan24

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #829 on: March 24, 2008, 02:09:24 pm »
Sader,

Fair enough I can't argue with you there.  He definitely might be one of the best when he is done.

Offline Bman3

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #830 on: March 24, 2008, 04:40:59 pm »
With the odds ever so slightly in HSU's favor by the numbers, but since it's so close to being even, my gut says HSU finds a way to take 2 games but that CTX "beats the odds" and wins one. It wouldn't shock me in the least if CTX won 2 or swept though.

i think you are confusing yourself with all these stupid formulas you use. knowone cares about all these formulas you find or even come up with. and if you are eventing formulas, thats awesome! You should be teaching at MIT or something like that, talking formulas to people who enjoy talking about formulas. the only result from formulas we care about are W-L!!...."you wouldn't be surprised if CTX swept" but your predicting them to lose 2? this makes no sense. you like to leave yourself a way out in every prediction you make, unless HSU sweeps because thats the only combination you left out!! i respect your predictions and all the research you do. but come on, more baseball and less quantitative methods please.

Offline HAMBONE

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #831 on: March 24, 2008, 04:58:01 pm »
Ok your right I did take it a little far with the monkey comment and I apologize, I guess I was just kind of tired of some people and remember I do say some people not giving credit where credit is due.  Ohh yes and I was there at the times when CTX did woop us every single year and it looks like those days are behind us.  So apologize for any wrong things I might have said just trying to represent my alma mater. 

Champion is a good friend of mine to and I was just joking as well, this is all for fun and games not trying to permanently piss anybody off.  What I should of said about Villegas is he is from what I have seen out of him in person he is better than anybody in D3 I have seen or played against at this point so that is the way I should have said those things. 

And again I apologize for the monkey comment should not have said that.

I agree that the Krogs and people like that in this conference did make a name for this conference but come on that was a while back im sure anybody in this message board could have done the same if we all got to play 9 seasons in the same conference. 

My prediction was right the CRU 2 of 3 from McMurry

Sader22, couple of things...

First of all referring to current or past CTX players as "a bunch of monkeys" is a little below the belt....but if you are ok going to sleep at night knowing that the same bunch of monkeys beat you into submission several times, then dream about monkeys beating you.  

Secondly Justin Champion played in my Highschool district and my College Conference.  I respect him as a player and a person, both on and off the field, I believe Ill leave it at that...

Third of all, Joseph V. has put up some great #'s for the Crusaders thus far, especially as an under-classmen.  Please know that you made the comment that he is better than anyone you have seen or played against in D3...well maybe if you guys had won a few more games and played in the post-season a little bit then you would have seen a little more of the talent out there, but you didnt and all the monkeys did.  If Joseph V. hits .350+ with 10+ doubles, 8+ Hr's, with 40+ RBI's for the next 2 seasons he will no doubt be amongst some of the best that have played in the ASC as far....but as being the best in D3, he will need to do something miraculous like turn water into wine...Until then just know that Jason Armstrong, John Krog, Josh Lee, and several Monkeys are already on that list that performed well for 4 years.


Make it a great day.

Offline Bman3

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #832 on: March 24, 2008, 05:00:30 pm »
hambone,

we are way past everything you just talked about. pay attention.

Offline HAMBONE

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #833 on: March 24, 2008, 05:05:44 pm »
Well I got a formula for you, Concordia takes 2 of 3. and that took me about 5 seconds to figure out.



can you please explain to the crowd how exactly you came up with this prediction Blackcat00?  what formula did you use?

Offline HAMBONE

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #834 on: March 24, 2008, 05:06:49 pm »
hambone,

we are way past everything you just talked about. pay attention.

Well i am too busy living in the past Bman3...eat me

Offline HAMBONE

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #835 on: March 24, 2008, 05:14:22 pm »
With the odds ever so slightly in HSU's favor by the numbers, but since it's so close to being even, my gut says HSU finds a way to take 2 games but that CTX "beats the odds" and wins one. It wouldn't shock me in the least if CTX won 2 or swept though.

i think you are confusing yourself with all these stupid formulas you use. knowone cares about all these formulas you find or even come up with. and if you are eventing formulas, thats awesome! You should be teaching at MIT or something like that, talking formulas to people who enjoy talking about formulas. the only result from formulas we care about are W-L!!...."you wouldn't be surprised if CTX swept" but your predicting them to lose 2? this makes no sense. you like to leave yourself a way out in every prediction you make, unless HSU sweeps because thats the only combination you left out!! i respect your predictions and all the research you do. but come on, more baseball and less quantitative methods please.

I personally like tendency charts for both hitters and pitchers, but all these formulas do is break down the stats even further but dont really have any real meaning to the majority of readers.  as with the rest of the readers, we I do appreciate all the hard work that alot of you do to come up with different statistics and rankings, and we all have our roles on this board.  some to waste time doing math, some waste time talking trash, some to waste time giveing credit where credit is due, and some to waste time getting their feelings hurt....either way we are all wasting time, and I enjoy reading it while wasting my own time. 

Offline Blackcat00

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #836 on: March 24, 2008, 06:04:05 pm »
I used the quantitative literacy methods that Professor "who cares" at CU taught us our senior year.

I really think Concordia is hot after getting dismantled in brownwood. This is the time of year Gardner turns it on and I think he really lit a fire under this team. They are going to score runs no doubt, and with Morrison mowing them down last week with an almost record setting night I see him having a great outing.


Offline Sader22

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #837 on: March 25, 2008, 02:07:18 am »
Ok I already apologized for my previous comments that i had written if you would take the time and actually read the post that you are replying to then maybe you would know what is going on.  So if you want to know what I said last then go back and read my last post. 

So go back and read and then you can make a worth while statement.

Offline HAMBONE

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #838 on: March 25, 2008, 01:42:58 pm »
Ok I already apologized for my previous comments that i had written if you would take the time and actually read the post that you are replying to then maybe you would know what is going on.  So if you want to know what I said last then go back and read my last post. 

So go back and read and then you can make a worth while statement.


ok i will.  go ahead and cry some more while i take the time to actually read what you have to say.

Offline HAMBONE

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Re: BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference
« Reply #839 on: March 25, 2008, 02:39:42 pm »
Games Today:

SAGU @ UMHB in Belton, TX (2 p.m.)

Texas-Tyler @ Austin College in Sherman, TX (6 p.m.)

McMurry @ Trinity in San Antonio, TX (2 p.m.)

HSU @  Lubbock Christian in Lubbock, TX (6 p.m.)

Wiley College @ ETBU in Longview, TX (2 p.m.)

MC @ Rhodes in Memphis, TN (3 p.m.)



UO @ Hendrix in Conway, AR (6 p.m.)