Posters' Poll

[diehardfan]

lol.... sorry... As the dutiful maid of honor, I am currently swamped with the oh so fascinating task of designing my baby sister's wedding invitations.

"Can you make the picture a 1/4 in shorter" and "can you rotate it 1/4 of and inch" and "can you change it back to this font"

I've been doing this for at least three hours.... and that's after I gave her a draft version last weekend when I was home for the final four 

It's a good thing I love her a lot.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Tomorrow (well, technically, much later today ) I'll post my ballot with my reasoning.  I do NOT reveal other voter's ballots (unless specifically requested by the voter), but encourage others to reveal why they voted as they did.  Could be VERY interesting!

e.g., Have we all gone overboard (including me and d3hoops.com) on Guilford?  They won the most DRAMATIC game of the tourney, but (logically) to take 3OTs to down a team not in the previous top 25 should hurt more than it helps - comments?

e.g., Since the previous poll was voted on AFTER the tourney selections were announced, have the non-tourney teams been unfairly demoted?  I had Oshkosh as #8 last time (PP ranking, #10).  In light of tourney games I placed Augie and St. Thomas below them, Wash U and Hope above them - still #8 (PP ranking, #14).  Am I stubborn, or have other voters OVERreacted to tourney games?

It's a LO-O-ONG time 'til next season; I'd be fascinated to hear why voters (or even non-voters!) rank teams where they do.

April, just saw your post - excuse accepted!  But feel free to post your ballot anyway (or send it to me, I'll revise the poll and only the OCs among us will know YOUR votes!).

[Ralph Turner]

I want to thank my colleagues and Mr Ypsi for the Poll.  It really added greatly to my understanding of D3 this season.

I must confess that my ballot seemed to be the most likely to "outlie" among the group.

I took a clean sheet of paper and tried to understand what had happened in the tourney.  I tried to look at how strong conferences were as they performed away from their home fan bases, and to treat this in a more D1 fashion, whatever that may be.

In the regular season, I was rarely more than 2 teams off, and almost picked the Top 21 unanimously each week.  With my clean sheet of paper, I tried to avoid the traditional "conventional wisdoms" of past performance and look at what had happened this year.

I want to thank Mr Ypsi for letting me review my first ballot.  I took the clean sheet of paper and submitted another ballot.  Here are the two.

Version #1.

Final Poll:

1)   Amherst
2)   VWC
3)   WashStL
4)   Guilford
5)   Woo
6)   Brockport St
7)   Hope
8 )  RIC
9)   UWSP
10)  JCU
11)  Lincoln
12)  Miss Coll
13)  Carroll
14)  Whitworth
15)  Keene St
16)  St Johns
17)  SJF
18 )  Hampden-Sydney
19)  Stevens
20)  Tommies
21)  Augie
22)  Brandeis
23)  DPU
24)  Lake Erie
25)  Loras

Yes, this had some weaknesses and probably "mirrored" the brackets too much.  So I took another stab at it.

Yeah, let me think about that.

The problem that I had is that Amherst (with whom I was un-impressed, especially since it took them so long to put away a Trinity TX team that McMurry defeated without our point guard) won the whole thing.  Part of this is that some home teams of great reputations lost and some lost badly.  

Secondly, when games on neutral floors were considered, these teams were not as strong as their fan bases would ask us to believe.

Thirdly, if previous strong conference ties have buoyed other teams, what happens when we get "non-strong" conference members playing well.

I hope we can continue this debate after the poll.  I want to get this in before Pat releases his, so to double-check my thought processes.

1)  Amherst
2)  VWC
3)  WashStL
4)  Guilford
5)  Woo
6)  Hope
7)  Brockport (bracket contained Roch UAA, SJF, Wms NESCAC; Takes Woo to OT on friendly-neutral court.)
8 )  UWSP --  bad home loss
9)  Lincoln--strong showing on unfriendly neutral floor (Showtime!)  Takes it out of Guilford for VWC's sake.
10)  Carroll -- 2 good road wins
11)  JCU -- 6 places below Woo
12)  Whitworth -- good road game being flown to St Louis
13)  Miss Coll -- bad road loss being flown to hostile host
14)  Tommies -- one and done
15)  RIC -- Won the bracket containing Trinity CT NESCAC and Brandeis UAA;  loses by 12 at Amherst
16)  SJF -- Rochester UAA
17)  Depauw--lost to Whitworth in OT on a neutral floor
18 )  Augie -- bad home loss early
19)  UW-Oshkosh -- the only reason is that they beat Carroll at home, but lost 3 times to UW-LAX
20)  Lake Erie -- edged by JCU at home
21)  Centre -- beat Capital OAC on neutral floor.
22)  Elmhurst -- solely to the benefit of the doubt that the CCIW "should have two, if not three teams, in the tournament".  Went 1-2 vs Augie and still lost to Simpson.
23)  Catholic -- Best (non-Lincoln) team in the Mid-Atlantic/Atlantic regions
24)  UW-LAX -- see comment on #22.  I have no other reason to figure that LAX would beat MissColl in Clinton.
25)  Stevens -- token Atlantic squad.

Thanks

Thanks friends, and I will appreciate the debate on the issues that we had stronger conferences this year, UAA, NESCAC and ODAC in a year when the CCIW, the OAC and WIAC were down.

Next year, I will suspect the CCIW, the OAC and the WIAC to return to usual form.  However, their playoff teams didn't look like Top conference material this year.

And note, I did not cut Miss Coll (my Pick'em Contest Champion selection) any slack.  I had thought that the best chance for Miss College to win a Sweet 16 game was for them to play a non-Great Lakes opponent.

[diehardfan]

1. Amherst
2. Wash U
3. Va Wes
4. Wooster
5. Whitworth
6. Hope
7. UWSP
8. Guilford
9. Brockport
10. Carroll
11. Augustana
12. Elmhurst
13. Oshkosh
14. RIC
15. St. Thomas
16. Miss Col
17. LaCrosse
18. Chicago
19. Trinity CT
20. Wheaton
21. Lincoln
22. Occidental
23. Aurora
24. Brandeis
25. Keene St

[diehardfan]

That whole process was made a lot easier by having been at the final four and the sectionals. I either saw the team or someone who played the team with almost everyone on my list, so it helped compare scores that didn't necessarily make sense and weight things appropriately.

This is especially evident in my pick of Wash U over VA Wes.... Wash U would have won that semifinal game if soph PG Sean Wallis had just driven in for the layup instead of pulling up and passing. As it was they were only .8 secs from sending it into overtime. I also think their road to get there was tougher, having no bye and having to play on the road the whole time. Wash U is my emphatic preseason #1 with their three best players returning. Whitworth gets props from me for winning all but a few conference games and playing Wash U the closest of all tournament teams, with the game @ Wash U. I think Hope's results make the team look just a tad better than they are. They basically didn't even run an offense against Carroll. That game was won because Carroll panicked and Hope outhustled them on the boards and in general by a landslide.

You'll notice I didn't give many of the Great Lakes teams props, and in the end, eliminated JCU, Witt and Lake Erie who were all floating around the bottom of my bracket as it got closer to the end. Blame it on Cooper's lackluster performance and the team going down with him. If there had been a clear pick for 4th instead of them I might have been tempted to bump them out of the top 4. Plus it just annoys me that they didn't play hard in the beginning of any game in the playoffs and let themselves get into waaay too many holes. I think Augie and Elmhurst were dead even this season, along with a great deal of the CCIW... and while I'll agree that the Augie result indicates we didn't have a top 5 team, I still think we were the best and toughest league top to bottom. I just didn't feel right ranking Wheaton higher as a Wheaton fan, despite HoopsFan's high ranking, so I left my team on there, but low. I'm very comfortable saying that the Wheaton team I saw twice could beat any of the teams below them.

I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable doing this every week, but I'm pretty comfortable with my responses. Thanks for letting me participate Chuck, etc!

[Gregory Sager]

Thanks friends, and I will appreciate the debate on the issues that we had stronger conferences this year, UAA, NESCAC and ODAC in a year when the CCIW, the OAC and WIAC were down.

Next year, I will suspect the CCIW, the OAC and the WIAC to return to usual form.  However, their playoff teams didn't look like Top conference material this year.

True, but it's a leap to go from observing that the CCIW rep bowed out early in undistinguished fashion to extrapolating that the league was thus "down" this past season.

NON-CONFERENCE RECORDS
(D3 tourney games included)

CCIW	66-23	.742
UAA	74-26	.740
NESCAC	118-51	.698
WIAC	64-29	.688
HCAC	58-29	.667
NJAC	90-47	.657
ODAC	60-32	.652
OAC	56-30	.651
CAC	57-37	.606
SCAC	73-52	.584
MIAC	32-35	.478
NCAC	48-60	.444
MWC	33-42	.440
MIAA	38-59	.392

If that's what you consider "down", then may the CCIW never rise up again.

The WIAC and OAC were actually down this season. The WIAC's usually in the .700 neighborhood or better, and for as long as I can remember our cheesehead friends have posted the best cumulative non-conference record in D3. They clearly fell short of their usual standards this season. The OAC was slightly down in terms of non-con record from usual, although not drastically. A lot of the OAC's rep rests on its parity and fine postseason performances, and while the parity was clearly there this season the postseason performances weren't.

It also needs to be said that the CCIW wasn't down even by its own internal standards. The non-conference record posted by the league as a whole this season is the best in the 61-year history of the circuit. It's an improvement of seven games over last year's cumulative non-con mark. The teams at the top of the CCIW weren't as good as the teams at the top in 2005-06, but the teams at the bottom were a lot better. As April said, the CCIW didn't have a Top 5 team this year, and that's reflected in Augie's unceremonious early exit and in Elmhurst's snub -- but from top to bottom the league itself had an unparalleled strength that is clearly reflected in the non-conference record.

[Ralph Turner]

Next year, I will suspect the CCIW, the OAC and the WIAC to return to usual form.  However, their playoff teams didn't look like Top conference material this year.

More later this evening, but that statement and the CCIW inter-conference record are not mutually inconsistent.

Have a good day.

[sac]

The only team I'd debate against being in the top 25 was Aurora, they should switch out with Stevens.

Stevens proved they belong with some good wins in the tournament.  Aurora lost on their home floor to a pretty average Calvin squad, infact were being dominated at the half.  I didn't see a top 25 team in Aurora, good individual players but not a good team.



The biggest problem most of us had was what to do with the non-tournament teams.  I ranked them

#7 Oshkosh
#11 Elmhurst
#18 Wittenberg
#23 NYU

Had I been voting for LaCrosse they might have squeezed in there but they'd been off my ballots for a few weeks.

[Hoops Fan]

In my final pre-tournament ballot, I had this crazy Wheaton, Oshkosh, LaCrosse cabal sitting at 13-14-15.  So none of them make the tournament and afterwards I'm lost on what to do.  Solution: I just left them there.  It's where I thought they were before the tournament and they did nothing to change my mind (nor could they, really).  I just moved other teams around them as merited. 

Not a lot changed though in terms of the top 12 versus the bottom ten.  Guilford moved up above the non-qualifiers to take Chicago's place.

I added Stevens, Carroll, RIC, Brockport and Lincoln to replace the five I dropped out: Ramapo, North Central, Loras, Capital and Occidental.

[Hoops Fan]

Forgot this:

Poster’s Poll

Top 25

Final March 19, 2007:

1.   Amherst
2.   Stevens Point
3.   Wooster
4.   Virginia Wesleyan
5.   Washington U
6.   Augustana
7.   Mississippi College
8.   St. Thomas
9.   Elmhurst
10. Guilford
11. Whitworth
12. Brandeis
13. Wheaton
14. La Crosse
15. Oshkosh
16. Hope
17. Rhode Island College
18. Brockport State
19. Lincoln
20. Aurora
21. Centre
22. Trinity (CT)
23. Carroll
24. Chicago
25. Stevens

[smedindy]

Let the record show that i did NOT vote for DePauw. But you already could have guessed that, eh? 

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Forgot this:

Poster’s Poll

Top 25

Final March 19, 2007:

1.   Amherst
2.   Stevens Point
3.   Wooster
4.   Virginia Wesleyan
5.   Washington U
6.   Augustana
7.   Mississippi College
8.   St. Thomas
9.   Elmhurst
10. Guilford
11. Whitworth
12. Brandeis
13. Wheaton
14. La Crosse
15. Oshkosh
16. Hope
17. Rhode Island College
18. Brockport State
19. Lincoln
20. Aurora
21. Centre
22. Trinity (CT)
23. Carroll
24. Chicago
25. Stevens

OK, I'll ask - UWSP #2?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Let the record show that i did NOT vote for DePauw. But you already could have guessed that, eh? 

Fear not, smed, the PP shows only one voter named DePauw and our token Southerner has already posted his ballot - your Little Giant credentials are safe!   [BTW, I've tried to recruit a voter from ODAC, even asking 2 or 3 by name, but can't get anyone to admit they follow d3 beyond their region.]

FDF, while no one else had UWSP that high, based on the total season I don't find the vote indefensible.  I'm the only other one who had UWSP over Woo (4 and 5, respectively), reasoning that I had Point 1 and Woo 2 going in, and Point lost to Wash U while Woo lost to Wash U AND Amherst.

[MeOak21]

Forgot this:

Poster’s Poll

Top 25

Final March 19, 2007:

1.   Amherst
2.   Stevens Point
3.   Wooster
4.   Virginia Wesleyan
5.   Washington U
6.   Augustana
7.   Mississippi College
8.   St. Thomas
9.   Elmhurst
10. Guilford
11. Whitworth
12. Brandeis
13. Wheaton
14. La Crosse
15. Oshkosh
16. Hope
17. Rhode Island College
18. Brockport State
19. Lincoln
20. Aurora
21. Centre
22. Trinity (CT)
23. Carroll
24. Chicago
25. Stevens

Hoops- I hope its not just my bias shining through... but please tell me you just forgot about Keene St.

I know they're borderline but come on man

[Hoops Fan]

OK, here we get to answer the questions:

I'll admit, I put less emphasis on the tournament than most, perhaps even less than I would otherwise be inclined to do.  I'm not going to put undue influence on these games just because they came in the tournament.  I just treated the tournament like a "week" of games, judging whether teams should move up or down based on performance.

I had Stevens Point #1 going in (although I've been a big Amherst fan all year).  My internal debate went like this.  "Sure they've been very good all year, but they lost by twelve on their home court to WashU, that certainly doesn't suggest the dominance they've shown the rest of the year.  But then again they have been dominant all year and this may have been an aberration.  Twelve points to a very, very good team can't hurt them that much."  They've been good and shown solid consistency from the beginning.  The tournament is an awful place to have a bad game, but that doesn't make them any less talented as a team.  It's not like there's a ton of difference between those first five schools anyway.

Keene was another tough one, although more tough emotionally than practically.  I'm a New England guy, I've been touting Keene from the beginning of the season.  It came down to which teams did I feel earned their way onto my ballot because of the tournament.  RIC, Brockport, and Lincoln had been on my ballot or very near to it all year.  Those were no brainers.  I felt that Stevens deserved to get on because they beat my previous #25 (Ramapo) in the tournament.  Finally Carroll had one heck of a weekend, certainly better performance-wise than Keene, so Carroll got the spot over Keene.

If I were to drop one more team out, it would be Chicago or Aurora.  In looking back on the season as a whole I didn't feel that either one was worse than Keene in any significant way.  I'm not sure Keene would have beat out John Carroll either, but I didn't have to make that call.