As we well know from d3 (and is also true for d1), the top team left out of the national tourney is NOT #66 (or in our case, this year, #49). AQs from lesser leagues would be MUCH farther down the food chain!
Figure Maryland (or St Joe or ??) as somewhere around 40 - figure the top left-out d3s as around 20-25 (as, indeed, your final poll did).