Author Topic: Pool C  (Read 398688 times)

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4575 on: February 24, 2013, 05:15:08 pm »
There are now going to be a number of teams ahead of Emory in the South... we will have to see what Coach Zimmerman has to say about it on Hoopsville tonight ;).
Host of Hoopsville. Broadcast Director, play-by-play and analyst for D3sports.com. Public Address Announcer for Goucher Athletics since 1995. Broadcaster for Stevenson Athletics and others.
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Offline bopol

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4576 on: February 24, 2013, 05:20:00 pm »

Hard to put them ahead of Stout when Stout has two wins head-to-head. We have seen this before in this conference, if memory serves, and it ended up with both missing out.

Yeah I think in the "all things fair and equal" side of regional rankings, Stout stays above them... but if you're a regional ranker (from that region and presumably friendly with some of the parties involved), do you think "Stout's resume is just too generic at this point to be a viable selection.  Platteville has a unique resume that might turn some heads... let's bump them up? 

I'm just interested in how those conversations go.

You mean, do they make a mockery of the process?  I can imagine that happens.

Offline SevenTen

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4577 on: February 24, 2013, 05:24:49 pm »

Hard to put them ahead of Stout when Stout has two wins head-to-head. We have seen this before in this conference, if memory serves, and it ended up with both missing out.

Yeah I think in the "all things fair and equal" side of regional rankings, Stout stays above them... but if you're a regional ranker (from that region and presumably friendly with some of the parties involved), do you think "Stout's resume is just too generic at this point to be a viable selection.  Platteville has a unique resume that might turn some heads... let's bump them up? 

I'm just interested in how those conversations go.

You mean, do they make a mockery of the process?  I can imagine that happens.

Ha.  I don't know if I'd go that far... I'm just saying are you ranking the best teams or the best resumes?  Those aren't always the same thing.

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4578 on: February 24, 2013, 05:24:55 pm »
For those of you that know the West region better than me: is there any way Platteville jumps in ahead of Stout and Buena Vista?

Of that West group after Stevens Point, I have...

1. Buena Vista (IIAC) - 18-7 (.720)/.563/1-2
2. UW-Stout (WIAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.542/1-5 (swept Platteville)
3. UW-Platteville - 15-9 (.625)//.601/7-2
4. Augsburg - 21-7 (.750)/.514/2-3

I don't think any will get in.  I have Stevens Point getting in #1 and then Buena Vista sitting on the board for 18 rounds without getting picked.

"If" Platteville hit the board first (big if) do you think they get taken?  Their SOS and wins against regionally ranked would be very very favorable.  Could the regional rankers consider a tweak to the final rankings for this reason?

Hard to put them ahead of Stout when Stout has two wins head-to-head. We have seen this before in this conference, if memory serves, and it ended up with both missing out.

In 2008, IWU beat Wheaton 3 times...but Wheaton had a much better national Pool C resume than IWU, so the Midwest committee ranked Wheaton ahead of IWU.  Wheaton got a Pool C, and IWU did not.  It was the right call by the Midwest committee -- they knew IWU had very little chance to get in.  Their decision got the region another Pool C.

The West should put Platteville as the second highest ranked Pool C - let them sit there on the board with that .601 SOS and 10 games played vs regionally ranked.  It's the best chance the West has at getting a second Pool C in my opinion.

Online AO

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4579 on: February 24, 2013, 05:25:46 pm »
For those of you that know the West region better than me: is there any way Platteville jumps in ahead of Stout and Buena Vista?

Of that West group after Stevens Point, I have...

1. Buena Vista (IIAC) - 18-7 (.720)/.563/1-2
2. UW-Stout (WIAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.542/1-5 (swept Platteville)
3. UW-Platteville - 15-9 (.625)//.601/7-2
4. Augsburg - 21-7 (.750)/.514/2-3

I don't think any will get in.  I have Stevens Point getting in #1 and then Buena Vista sitting on the board for 18 rounds without getting picked.

"If" Platteville hit the board first (big if) do you think they get taken?  Their SOS and wins against regionally ranked would be very very favorable.  Could the regional rankers consider a tweak to the final rankings for this reason?
Platteville is 2-8 against regionally ranked, not 7-2.

Offline bopol

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4580 on: February 24, 2013, 05:28:45 pm »
Hey all,

What shift do you see in the regional rankings among the Pool C eligible teams? 

Specifically, does the Mid-Atl stay Albright, Wesley, Scranton, DeSales?  I'd say yes, but gosh are Wesley and Scranton close.

Does Northeast stay Williams, Middlebury, MIT, Springfield, Brandeis?  Again, I'd say yes.

In the South, I've got to put the order Hampden.Sydney, MHB, Va. Wesleyan, Emory, Tx-Dallas?  What do you think?

In the West, I still have Stevens Point, Buena Vista for the first two, but then I am unsure about Stout vs. Moorhead.  Thoughts?

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4581 on: February 24, 2013, 05:30:00 pm »

Hard to put them ahead of Stout when Stout has two wins head-to-head. We have seen this before in this conference, if memory serves, and it ended up with both missing out.

Yeah I think in the "all things fair and equal" side of regional rankings, Stout stays above them... but if you're a regional ranker (from that region and presumably friendly with some of the parties involved), do you think "Stout's resume is just too generic at this point to be a viable selection.  Platteville has a unique resume that might turn some heads... let's bump them up? 

I'm just interested in how those conversations go.

You mean, do they make a mockery of the process?  I can imagine that happens.

Ha.  I don't know if I'd go that far... I'm just saying are you ranking the best teams or the best resumes?  Those aren't always the same thing.

Mockery?  It's the regional advisory committee's job to stack the teams up to maximize the region's Pool C chances.

Offline tigerfan64

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4582 on: February 24, 2013, 05:31:23 pm »
Okay...if my HSC tigers are in the dance (most likely) what is the chance of us getting a home game in the first round possibly?  Do we rank higher than say VA Weslyan or Randolph Macon? or are we the third girl to the dance in that group as far as seeding?  I am just looking for information from better gurus than myself

Offline SevenTen

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4583 on: February 24, 2013, 05:36:14 pm »

Hard to put them ahead of Stout when Stout has two wins head-to-head. We have seen this before in this conference, if memory serves, and it ended up with both missing out.

Yeah I think in the "all things fair and equal" side of regional rankings, Stout stays above them... but if you're a regional ranker (from that region and presumably friendly with some of the parties involved), do you think "Stout's resume is just too generic at this point to be a viable selection.  Platteville has a unique resume that might turn some heads... let's bump them up? 

I'm just interested in how those conversations go.

You mean, do they make a mockery of the process?  I can imagine that happens.

Ha.  I don't know if I'd go that far... I'm just saying are you ranking the best teams or the best resumes?  Those aren't always the same thing.

Mockery?  It's the regional advisory committee's job to stack the teams up to maximize the region's Pool C chances.

I definitely didn't use that word.  I see it the same as you.  Pick the best looking resumes vs. best "teams".  Head to head is important but some times matchups favor one team over the other on a head to head basis but favor the other against a larger pool of opponents.  (and yes I'm speaking purely in the hypothetical since I haven't seen either Platteville or Stout this year).

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4584 on: February 24, 2013, 05:43:02 pm »
I am pretty sure the committee isn't considering whether to select a team based on a flight... in fact, the NCAA doesn't start talking about flight until the bracket portion of the proceedings...
Just my paranoia...

And it is not paranoia, if they are out to get you anyway!   ;)
My paranoia is not as heightened now that CTX has taken care of business.

The interesting thing to see is whether CTX gets bracketed someplace where their athleticism causes match-up problems.  CTX coach Stan Bonewitz is the cousin to the former McMurry Assistant to Ron Holmes for the 1999, 2000, and 2001 McMurry teams, Russell Vanlandingham .  Bonewitz loves up-tempo style. Bonewitz' father was the "inventor" of the system that CTX and McMurry used.

Offline KnightSlappy

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4585 on: February 24, 2013, 05:45:12 pm »
Pool A is set, so it's time to begin projecting in earnest. My kind-of-accurate-but-not-really algorithm gives the following:

Rochester
UW-Stevens Point
Williams
Virginia Wesleyan
Middlebury
Illinois Wesleyan
MIT
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Wooster
Emory
Wesley
Plattsburgh State
Wheaton (Ill.)
Springfield
Stevens
Brandeis
Hampden-Sydney
UW-Platteville
Transylvania
----
Albright
SUNY-Old Westbury
Thomas More
Augustana
Rutgers-Newark

Though there's not much of a difference from UW-Platteville down to Rutgers-Newark
« Last Edit: February 24, 2013, 07:33:25 pm by KnightSlappy »

Offline KnightSlappy

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4586 on: February 24, 2013, 05:50:11 pm »
Okay...if my HSC tigers are in the dance (most likely) what is the chance of us getting a home game in the first round possibly?  Do we rank higher than say VA Weslyan or Randolph Macon? or are we the third girl to the dance in that group as far as seeding?  I am just looking for information from better gurus than myself

They look to me to be right on the cusp of hosting/not hosting. It will probably come down to geography and what works best for reducing flights.

Offline deiscanton

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4587 on: February 24, 2013, 05:57:34 pm »
Both models seem to have Virginia Wesleyan ahead of Emory in final regional rankings for Pool C consideration.  Is it possible that Emory MBB's overtime victory over Virginia Wesleyan earlier this season could switch their order of Pool C selection?  Both teams probably may make it in in tomorrow, though.


Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4588 on: February 24, 2013, 06:10:08 pm »
Final 2013 Pool C Projection

(In-region record and results vs regionally ranked through Sunday 2/24.  SOS also through Sunday 2/24 per KnightSlappy - http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/2010-2011-d3-mens-regional-rankings.html)


Teams projected at the table for round 1 of the Pool C process (region alphabetical order)
(AT) SUNY-Old Westbury (Sky) - 21-3 (.875)/.500/2-1
(E) Rochester (UAA) - 20-4 (.833)/.575/7-3
(GL) Wooster (NCAC) -22-5 (.815)/.557/3-2
(MA) Wesley (CAC) - 17-4 (.810)/.530/5-3
(MW) Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW) - 18-5 (.783)/.556/5-4 
(NE) Williams (NESCAC) - 21-4 (.840)/.577/5-4
(S) Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC) - 18-6 (.750)/.560/8-5
(W) UW-Stevens Point (WIAC) - 21-5 (.808)/.585/7-2

Pool C selection projection
1. UW-Stevens Point (West, WIAC) - 21-5 (.808)/.585/7-2 
2. Rochester (East, UAA) - 20-4 (.833)/.575/7-3   
3. Williams (Northeast, NESCAC) - 21-4 (.840)/.577/5-4
4. Virginia Wesleyan (South, ODAC) - 18-6 (.750)/.560/8-5*
5. Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-3 (.864)/.545/2-3
6. Wooster (Great Lakes, NCAC) - 22-5 (.815)/.557/3-2
7. Illinois Wesleyan (Midwest, CCIW) - 18-5 (.783)/.556/5-4 
8. Mary Hardin-Baylor (South, ASC) - 23-5 (.821)/.550/3-3
9. MIT (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 19-5 (.792)/.555/4-4
10. Wheaton (Midwest, CCIW) - 17-6 (.739)/.566/4-4
11. Hampden-Sydney (South, ODAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.512/6-3*
12. Emory (South, UAA) - 19-6 (.760)/.556/5-4
13. Wesley (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) - 17-4 (.810)/.530/5-3
14. Plattsburgh State (East, SUNYAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.559/5-5
15. Transylvania (Midwest, HCAC) - 19-6 (.760)/.548/4-1* 
16. Springfield (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 19-8 (.704)/.575/4-6
17. Stevens (East, E8) - 20-5 (.800)/.533/3-3 
18. SUNY-Old Westbury (Atlantic, Sky) - 21-3 (.875)/.500/2-1
19. Brandeis (Northeast, UAA) - 17-8 (.680)/.569/4-7 

Projected left at the table after round 19 (in order of competitiveness)
(MA) Albright (MACC) - 20-6 (.769)/.546/3-1
(GL) Thomas More (PrAC) - 22-4 (.846)/.512/1-3 
(AT) Rutgers-Newark (NJAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.548/3-4
(MW) Augustana (CCIW) - 18-8 (.692)/.553/2-8
(W) Buena Vista (IIAC) - 18-7 (.720)/.563/1-2
(NE) Tufts (NESCAC) - 16-6 (.727)/.535/0-6
(S) Texas-Dallas (ASC) - 20-7 (.741)/.516/0-4
(E) Oswego St (SUNYAC) - 19-8 (.704)/.518/2-6

Top teams that won't get to the table for consideration
(MA) Franklin & Marshall (CC) 17-6 (.739)/.533/2-3     
(W) UW-Stout (WIAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.542/1-5
(W) UW-Platteville - 15-9 (.625)/.601/2-8
(MA) Scranton (LAND) - 19-7 (.731)/.536/3-1
(MA) Salisbury (CAC) 16-6 (.727)/.535/3-6*
(AT) Richard Stockton (NJAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.544/1-5


* My projections assume that Randolph-Macon (ODAC Pool A) will be included in the final South ranking.  The following results vs regionally ranked have been applied:
   - Transylvania: 1-0
   - Hampden-Sydney: 2-1
   - Virginia Wesleyan: 0-2
   - Salisbury: 0-1
« Last Edit: February 24, 2013, 06:47:48 pm by Titan Q »

Offline bopol

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #4589 on: February 24, 2013, 06:13:00 pm »
Mine...FWIW (not much)

Round 1   Stevens Point
Round 2   Illinois Wesleyan
Round 3   Rochester
Round 4   Willaims
Round 5   Wooster
Round 6   Wheaton
Round 7   Middlebury
Round 8   MIT
Round 9   Albright
Round 10   Va. Wesleyan
Round 11   Stevens
Round 12   Hampden.Sydney
Round 13   MHB
Round 14   Emory
Round 15   Wesley
Round 16   Tanslyvania
Round 17   Old Westbury
Round 18   Thomas More
Round 19   Buena Vista
   
On the Table   
Rutgers.Newark   
Plattsburgh St   
Capital   
Scranton   
Augustana   
Springfield   
Texas.Dallas   
Stout