Author Topic: Pool C  (Read 1236616 times)

Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7620 on: February 25, 2018, 01:07:40 am »
Not sure where else to put this...

In the Southern Athletic Conference (SAC), an eight team league, tomorrow's tournament championship features the 7 and 8 seeds, having knocked off all the teams above them.  Berry (10-17) will play Hendrix (7-20).  One of these teams is going to the dance!  Go figure.

As for the loser, they just might be on the wrong side of the bubble.

SPORTS!!!!

Offline Smitty Oom

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7621 on: February 25, 2018, 01:44:19 am »
If Augsbrug gets knocked off tomorrow that would almost certainly launch Bethel into the regional rankings. This would mean that Augsburg would be 5-5 vRRO. I don't know if that would change where you guys have them, but that is a lot of results. Is 4-3 even better than 5-5?

Wins: (at SJU (MIAC Semi-Final), vs. Wartburg (Las Vegas), at Bethel, vs. Loras, at St. Olaf)
Loses: (at SJU, vs. SJU, vs. Bethel (MIAC Championship), vs Bethel (Regular Season), vs St Olaf)


Offline Greek Tragedy

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7622 on: February 25, 2018, 01:55:26 am »
I think 5-5 is better, but I don't know anything.
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Offline fantastic50

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7623 on: February 25, 2018, 06:44:01 am »
If Augsbrug gets knocked off tomorrow that would almost certainly launch Bethel into the regional rankings. This would mean that Augsburg would be 5-5 vRRO. I don't know if that would change where you guys have them, but that is a lot of results. Is 4-3 even better than 5-5?

Wins: (at SJU (MIAC Semi-Final), vs. Wartburg (Las Vegas), at Bethel, vs. Loras, at St. Olaf)
Loses: (at SJU, vs. SJU, vs. Bethel (MIAC Championship), vs Bethel (Regular Season), vs St Olaf)

My numbers suggest that 5-5 is better.  Looking at past years' results, losses vRRO don't seem to hurt much, perhaps because they bolster perception of a tough schedule.

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7624 on: February 25, 2018, 08:02:48 am »
If Augsbrug gets knocked off tomorrow that would almost certainly launch Bethel into the regional rankings. This would mean that Augsburg would be 5-5 vRRO. I don't know if that would change where you guys have them, but that is a lot of results. Is 4-3 even better than 5-5?

Wins: (at SJU (MIAC Semi-Final), vs. Wartburg (Las Vegas), at Bethel, vs. Loras, at St. Olaf)
Loses: (at SJU, vs. SJU, vs. Bethel (MIAC Championship), vs Bethel (Regular Season), vs St Olaf)

With a loss, Augsburg would be...

* Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .714 (20-8)/.539 ish/5-5

I think they'd be in at #20 or #21.  For now, I bumped Augsburg down to #20 (had them a few spots higher) because that's where they'd be if the WP drops from .741 to .714. 

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1859685#msg1859685

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7625 on: February 25, 2018, 09:01:00 am »
My Sunday morning view.  I moved Amherst into spot #21.


Projected In...
1. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .800 (20-5)/.595/7-4   vs Wesleyan, Sun
2. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.573/6-3 
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.515/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).590/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 
12. Christopher Newport (MA/CAC): .777 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
13. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
15. Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
16. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4 
17. North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5   
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
19. Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .741 (20-7)/.539/4-3   @ Bethel, Sun - with a win today, moves to Pool A
20. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6 
21. LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2

Left at the table...
* Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2 
* Loras (WE/IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.542/2-3   done
* Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .679 (19-9)/.564/3-5 
* Gwynedd Mercy (AT/CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.519/2-3
* UW-River Falls (CE/WIAC): .692 (18-8)/.586/3-6   @ UW-Stevens Point, Sun; as a Pool C candidate will have another loss
* Hobart (East/LL): .808 (21-5)/.526/1-2 
* Juniata (MA/LAND)
* Texas-Dallas (SO/ASC) 

Never gets to the table...
* Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/2-6 
* Salem State (NE/MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.512/1-2   
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bubble Burster Games (projected Pool A teams that could steal a Pool C)...

* UW-Stevens Point vs UW-River Falls, Sunday 3:00pm ET; UWSP: .692 (18-8)/.605/4-6 - spot #17 candidate
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reverse Bubble Burster Games (projected Pool C teams that could leave Pool C)...

* Augsburg at Bethel in the MIAC final, Sunday 3:00pm ET  (Augsburg Pool A with a win; Bethel not in the Pool C top 21)
« Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 12:36:11 pm by Titan Q »

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7626 on: February 25, 2018, 09:43:50 am »
In terms of implications today...

I see the MIT situation only impacting the NE teams in that spot #21.  The big question is which NE team is regionally ranked highest after Middlebury.  The candidates are:

* Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2 
* Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
* Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/2-6 
* MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .808 (21-5)/.531/2-3
* Salem State (NE/MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.512/1-2   

Springfield was ranked ahead of Amherst in the 3rd ranking...but Amherst could easily be ranked higher.  Amherst beat Springfield.

The only way the MIT result matters, as I see it, is if MIT is regionally ranked 2nd on that list above.  Because otherwise, MIT would never even get to the table as a Pool C.  I think MIT is either Pool A or out.

I think whoever is ranked higher between Amherst and Springfield gets in at #21.
-------------

The UW-Stevens Point vs UW-River Falls WIAC title game is much more significant.  I think UWRF is either Pool A or out.  But UWSP would be a strong Pool C candidate due to SOS and RRO:

* UW-Stevens Point: .667 (18-9)/.605/4-7 (assumes a loss today)

I think UWSP would get in at spot #18, pushing NCC and IWU down to #19 and #20...and then leaving spot #21 to Augsburg (if Pool C) or the top NE team (I have Springfield).

Bubble teams want UWSP to win.
-------------

I think Augsburg would be a strong candidate for spot #21 if they lose today at Bethel.  Bethel is Pool A or not.

Bubble teams want Augsburg to win.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 10:01:48 am by Titan Q »

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7627 on: February 25, 2018, 10:07:51 am »
I've moved Amherst into spot #21 over Springfield.

I reserve the right to keep messing with spot #21 as the day goes on.

Offline BBJones

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7628 on: February 25, 2018, 10:48:42 am »
Thanks for the thorough analysis.  If River Falls defeats Stevens Point, that likely means WIAC has 4 teams in.  As tight as the Platteville/Point/Oshkosh battles have been this year, that seems rational.  I predict Point wins.  MJ Delmore seems unwillng to be denied. 

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7629 on: February 25, 2018, 12:03:58 pm »
In the order I have above, the Pool Cs by region are:

-Central 4
-Northeast 4
-West 4
-Mid Atlantic 4
-Great Lakes 2
-South 2
-Atlantic 1
-East 0

Offline Hoopsfan21

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7630 on: February 25, 2018, 12:20:58 pm »
Titan Q - Nice Analysis.

Few Adjustments I would make is:

1. LeTourneau not making the at large Pool C Bid - Too low of a SOS (.511)
2. Springfield gets at large Bid - Will be ahead of Amherst in regional rankings.
3. I think Northeast has 5 teams with the last being Keene State - solid win percentage with an excellent SOS (.575)
4. I would make the case if Augsburg loses that Ohio Wesleyan gets in over Augsburg (Higher SOS)



Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7631 on: February 25, 2018, 12:30:52 pm »
Titan Q - Nice Analysis.

Few Adjustments I would make is:

1. LeTourneau not making the at large Pool C Bid - Too low of a SOS (.511)
2. Springfield gets at large Bid - Will be ahead of Amherst in regional rankings.
3. I think Northeast has 5 teams with the last being Keene State - solid win percentage with an excellent SOS (.575)
4. I would make the case if Augsburg loses that Ohio Wesleyan gets in over Augsburg (Higher SOS)

All fair points. 

I have been struggling with LeTourneau - they have the lowest SOS on the board.  But that WP is really high, combined with decent RRO.  I have moved them down to spot #21...but I still have them in.

Springfield and Amherst have similar numbers...and Amherst beat Springfield.  That's why I have Amherst regionally ranked higher.  I think whichever team ends up ranked higher gets in and the other is out.

I have Keene State not hitting the table - blocked by Springfield/Amherst (whichever of the two is lower).

Ohio Wesleyan will hit the board very early (maybe after about round 10) -- after Marietta gets in.  They have a shot for sure.


Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7632 on: February 25, 2018, 02:01:46 pm »
LeTourneau (23-4) is sitting on the edge of its seat.

They go 16-2 in conference and 1-1 in the post-season tourney.

For their 7 non-conference games (in which they were 6-1), they play five non-conference games against the SCAC.  The geographic isolation destroys the SOS!

They play Austin College home-and-home (relatively nearby at 150 miles) and Texas Lutheran.

They beat Centenary LA and Schreiner,  who are in the finals for the SCAC today.

In November in Memphis, they beat Vassar (no biggie) but lose to JHU 93-84, with whom they were tied at 78,  until JHU starts an 8-0 run at 2:43 left in the game.

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7633 on: February 25, 2018, 02:16:05 pm »
LeTourneau (23-4) is sitting on the edge of its seat.

They go 16-2 in conference and 1-1 in the post-season tourney.

For their 7 non-conference games (in which they were 6-1), they play five non-conference games against the SCAC.  The geographic isolation destroys the SOS!

They play Austin College home-and-home (relatively nearby at 150 miles) and Texas Lutheran.

They beat Centenary LA and Schreiner,  who are in the finals for the SCAC today.

In November in Memphis, they beat Vassar (no biggie) but lose to JHU 93-84, with whom they were tied at 78,  until JHU starts an 8-0 run at 2:43 left in the game.

Is it possible East Texas Baptist will be ranked higher than LeTourneau in the final South ranking?

*LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2
*East Texas Baptist U. (SO/ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6  2-1 vs LeTourneau

Seems to me ETBU should be ranked higher.

Offline fantastic50

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7634 on: February 25, 2018, 03:05:02 pm »
In terms of implications today...

I see the MIT situation only impacting the NE teams in that spot #21.  The big question is which NE team is regionally ranked highest after Middlebury.  The candidates are:

* Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2 
* Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
* Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/2-6 
* MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .808 (21-5)/.531/2-3
* Salem State (NE/MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.512/1-2   

Springfield was ranked ahead of Amherst in the 3rd ranking...but Amherst could easily be ranked higher.  Amherst beat Springfield.

The only way the MIT result matters, as I see it, is if MIT is regionally ranked 2nd on that list above.  Because otherwise, MIT would never even get to the table as a Pool C.  I think MIT is either Pool A or out.

I think whoever is ranked higher between Amherst and Springfield gets in at #21.

I was going to take MIT as the #6 team in the Northeast, and thus the first NE team to get a Pool C berth after the three obvious ones from the NESCAC.  However, it's now irrelevant, as the Engineers win the AQ from the NEWMAC, defeating WPI 63-57.