Author Topic: Pool C  (Read 1236620 times)

Offline sac

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7650 on: February 25, 2018, 09:06:17 pm »
Nice job as always to Ryan, Bob and Dave.  If you listened to the show the last 5 or so picks really outlined how difficult and close the last few picks will be this year.

I was a little surprised that secondary criteria seemed to be glossed over somewhat, surely that might have swayed a couple picks.
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7651 on: February 25, 2018, 09:08:17 pm »
When it comes down to the last few picks, the Hoopsville guys pick three power conference teams with tough schedules but sub-.700 winning percentages (Amherst, North Central, UW-RF). On the other hand, I took three teams with weaker schedules but better records (LeTorneau, Loras, and Springfield).

I could see the committee going either way, or some combination. Last year's UW-O pick was along the lines of where Dave, etc. went, while in some other years, any team whose WP started with a 6 needed to be very strong in other criteria.

As always, Selection Monday will be fun!
In the off-season, I would like for you to look at the distribution of the SOS's by teams in the conferences, teams in the regions.

George Brett batted .390 in 1980 which was more multiples of the median of qualifying batting averages in the league than Ted Williams' .406 in 1941.

In the geographically isolated areas such as Texas, the SOS gets pulled to .500 because it is hard to schedule teams that will allow a coach to boost his SOS.   Other factors can include the number of non-conference games (e.g., NESCAC) and absolute number of teams that are reflected in the Opponents' Opponents number.

Look at what happened to LeTourneau who scheduled (SCAC) teams in Texas that also needed D3 games. My bias is that conferences in certain parts of the country have higher SOS's and that a team's SOS relative to its conference median and the region median is a statistic that should be considered.

Thanks

Offline kiko

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7652 on: February 25, 2018, 09:22:10 pm »
When it comes down to the last few picks, the Hoopsville guys pick three power conference teams with tough schedules but sub-.700 winning percentages (Amherst, North Central, UW-RF). On the other hand, I took three teams with weaker schedules but better records (LeTorneau, Loras, and Springfield).

I could see the committee going either way, or some combination. Last year's UW-O pick was along the lines of where Dave, etc. went, while in some other years, any team whose WP started with a 6 needed to be very strong in other criteria.

As always, Selection Monday will be fun!
In the off-season, I would like for you to look at the distribution of the SOS's by teams in the conferences, teams in the regions.

George Brett batted .390 in 1980 which was more multiples of the median of qualifying batting averages in the league than Ted Williams' .406 in 1941.

In the geographically isolated areas such as Texas, the SOS gets pulled to .500 because it is hard to schedule teams that will allow a coach to boost his SOS.   Other factors can include the number of non-conference games (e.g., NESCAC) and absolute number of teams that are reflected in the Opponents' Opponents number.

Look at what happened to LeTourneau who scheduled (SCAC) teams in Texas that also needed D3 games. My bias is that conferences in certain parts of the country have higher SOS's and that a team's SOS relative to its conference median and the region median is a statistic that should be considered.

Thanks

I agree with this, though I don't know what a good, practical solution looks like.  You mentioned the NESCAC -- the flip of this situation is a team like Amherst.  (Cue NESCAC1 and Gregory's annual tussle, though I think they checked that box early this year.)  The Lord Jeffs Mammoths are expected to be one of the teams in the mix for the final few spots, but their SOS is inflated by what the NESCAC's single round-robin enables them to do with their schedule.  I personally don't view this metric as an apples-to-apples comparison when you look at the 'who is on the table' comparisons from the mock selection.*

* - I am not suggesting that other NESCAC teams don't deserve their bids or early selections amongst Pool C hopefuls.  And I am also not suggesting that Amherst can't potentially do well in the tournament depending on how the draw shakes out.  This is also true for some of the teams that are left on the table.  I AM suggesting that their SOS has a thumb on the scale because of their conference's scheduling philosophy.

Offline fantastic50

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7653 on: February 25, 2018, 10:27:22 pm »
Comparing Pool C picks, the Hoopsville selections, TitanQ, and I all agree on 17 teams (listed here in consensus order)...
1) Hamilton
2) Wesleyan
3) UW-Platteville
4) Whitman
5) Swarthmore
6) St John's
7) Middlebury
8) Wooster
9) Marietta
10)New Jersey City
11) Emory
12) Christopher Newport
13) St Olaf
14) UW-Oshkosh
15) Albright
16) Franklin & Marshall
17) Illinois Wesleyan

We're all over the place for the last four...
North Central (Hoopsville & TitanQ)
Amherst (Hoopsville & TitanQ)
Hobart (Hoopsville & me)
Loras (TitanQ & me)
Springfield (TitanQ & me)
LeTorneau (me)
UW-River Falls (Hoopsville)

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7654 on: February 25, 2018, 10:29:30 pm »
Comparing Pool C picks, the Hoopsville selections, TitanQ, and I all agree on 17 teams (listed here in consensus order)...
1) Hamilton
2) Wesleyan
3) UW-Platteville
4) Whitman
5) Swarthmore
6) St John's
7) Middlebury
8) Wooster
9) Marietta
10)New Jersey City
11) Emory
12) Christopher Newport
13) St Olaf
14) UW-Oshkosh
15) Albright
16) Franklin & Marshall
17) Illinois Wesleyan

We're all over the place for the last four...
North Central (Hoopsville & TitanQ)
Amherst (Hoopsville & TitanQ)
Hobart (Hoopsville & me)
Loras (TitanQ & me)
Springfield (TitanQ & me)
LeTorneau (me)
UW-River Falls (Hoopsville)

On North Central/IWU, remember, it's almost certain IWU can't get in unless NCC does.  So if you don't have NCC in, you realistically don't have IWU in either.

Offline Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7655 on: February 25, 2018, 10:42:57 pm »

Juniata was ahead of Lycoming in the most recent regional rankings, yet u have Lycoming ahead in coming to the table? Since the ranking, Lycoming was 0-1, Juniata 1-1.

We talked about Juniata, Lyco, and Mary Washington as viable options, but none of them were realistic options for a Pool C bid anyway, so we didn't spend too much time on it.
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Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7656 on: February 25, 2018, 11:06:54 pm »

Juniata was ahead of Lycoming in the most recent regional rankings, yet u have Lycoming ahead in coming to the table? Since the ranking, Lycoming was 0-1, Juniata 1-1.

We talked about Juniata, Lyco, and Mary Washington as viable options, but none of them were realistic options for a Pool C bid anyway, so we didn't spend too much time on it.

Juniata: .808/.481/1-0
Lycoming: .720/.517/1-4

Neither have any chance, but we felt Lycoming was the best option to put on the board.  .481 SOS isn't competitive.

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7657 on: February 26, 2018, 12:06:56 am »
When it comes down to the last few picks, the Hoopsville guys pick three power conference teams with tough schedules but sub-.700 winning percentages (Amherst, North Central, UW-RF). On the other hand, I took three teams with weaker schedules but better records (LeTorneau, Loras, and Springfield).

I could see the committee going either way, or some combination. Last year's UW-O pick was along the lines of where Dave, etc. went, while in some other years, any team whose WP started with a 6 needed to be very strong in other criteria.

As always, Selection Monday will be fun!

Based on this approach, you would likely have taken St. Norbert last year. A non AQ team which, despite a lofty record, was never really considered because the overwhelming majority of their high win total was posted against extremely weak fellow conference teams. Teams like this would often finish in the middle of the pack in power conferences.

Offline Greek Tragedy

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7658 on: February 26, 2018, 05:47:03 am »
When it comes down to the last few picks, the Hoopsville guys pick three power conference teams with tough schedules but sub-.700 winning percentages (Amherst, North Central, UW-RF). On the other hand, I took three teams with weaker schedules but better records (LeTorneau, Loras, and Springfield).

I could see the committee going either way, or some combination. Last year's UW-O pick was along the lines of where Dave, etc. went, while in some other years, any team whose WP started with a 6 needed to be very strong in other criteria.

As always, Selection Monday will be fun!

Based on this approach, you would likely have taken St. Norbert last year. A non AQ team which, despite a lofty record, was never really considered because the overwhelming majority of their high win total was posted against extremely weak fellow conference teams. Teams like this would often finish in the middle of the pack in power conferences.

And that's exactly where River Falls (4th) and, if you think about it, Amherst, finished. Amherst finished in a 5-way tie for 1st and they could've been the 5th seed. NCC, as you know, finished 3rd.
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Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7659 on: February 26, 2018, 07:18:44 am »
Using my final projection, it seems there are 16 very safe teams...

1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.573/6-3 
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.590/8-4   
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.515/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).590/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 
12. Christopher Newport (MA/CAC): .777 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
13. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
15. Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
16. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4 

And then the bubble starts here...

17. North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5   
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
19. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6 
20. Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2 
21. Loras (WE/IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.542/2-3   

Top teams left at the table...
* Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .679 (19-9)/.564/3-5 
* LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2
* Hobart (East/LL): .808 (21-5)/.526/1-2
* Gwynedd Mercy (AT/CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.519/2-3
* Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/2-6
* UW-River Falls (CE/WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.586/3-7   
 
We'll know soon enough!

Offline KnightSlappy

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7660 on: February 26, 2018, 08:13:34 am »
Using my final projection, it seems there are 16 very safe teams...

1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.573/6-3 
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.590/8-4   
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.515/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).590/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 
12. Christopher Newport (MA/CAC): .777 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
13. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
15. Albright (MA/Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
16. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4 

And then the bubble starts here...

17. North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5   
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
19. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6 
20. Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2 
21. Loras (WE/IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.542/2-3   

Top teams left at the table...
* Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC): .679 (19-9)/.564/3-5 
* LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2
* Hobart (East/LL): .808 (21-5)/.526/1-2
* Gwynedd Mercy (AT/CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.519/2-3
* Keene State (NE/LEC): .679/.575/2-6
* UW-River Falls (CE/WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.586/3-7   
 
We'll know soon enough!

I really like these picks, except give me LeTourneau and Hobart instead of Springfield and Loras.

Offline Onward on, John Carroll

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7661 on: February 26, 2018, 08:20:59 am »
Hoopsville Selection Special - Mock Pool C Selection Process
(Dave McHugh, Ryan Scott, Bob Quillman)

* Watch us live here - http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2017-18/feb25
* Refresh this page often for selection updates

11 Top Selections...

1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.574/6-3 
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.596/8-4   
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.576/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.526/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).587/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 

Round-by-Round Selections, Spots #12-21...

Round 12
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.555/2-4
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Christopher Newport (CAC): .778 (21-6)/.546/3-2
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2

Round 13
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.555/2-4
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2

Round 14
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2 
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2

Round 15
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) --  Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2 
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3   

Round 16
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) --  Franklin and Marshall (CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4     
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3   

Round 17
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 18
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 19
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 20
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- UW-River Falls (WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.589/3-7
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 21
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- Ripon (MWC): .720 (18-7)/.541/1-2
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

--------------------------------------------------------------
Pool C Table Order (regional ranking projection)...

Atlantic
* New Jersey City (NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4 
* Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3

Central
* UW-Platteville (WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.576/4-1 
* UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.555/2-4 

* North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
* Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
* UW-River Falls (WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.589/3-7

East
* Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
* Brockport (SUNYAC): .731 (19-7)/.529/3-3

Great Lakes
* Wooster (NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3 
* Marietta (OAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-5 

* Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC): .679 (19-9)/.564/3-5

Middle Atlantic
* Swarthmore (CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4 
* Christopher Newport (CAC): .778 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
* Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
* Franklin and Marshall (CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4   

Northeast
* Hamilton (NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.574/6-3 
* Wesleyan (NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.596/8-4
* Middlebury (NESCAC): .760 (19-6).587/4-6   

* Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
* Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2

* Keene State (LEC): .679 (19-9)/.576/2-6
* Salem State (MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.513/1-2

South
* Emory (UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2
* East Texas Baptist (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
* LeTourneau (ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2

West
* Whitman (NWC): .962 (25-1)/.526/4-1
* St. John's (MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.525/3-2 

* St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
* Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

The regional ranking projections show Ohio Wesleyan behind Wooster and Etta.  However, the pick-by-pick selection process shows ONU at the table.  Which is correct or am I reading this wrong?

Offline Fifth and Putnam

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7662 on: February 26, 2018, 08:29:53 am »
Hoopsville Selection Special - Mock Pool C Selection Process
(Dave McHugh, Ryan Scott, Bob Quillman)

* Watch us live here - http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2017-18/feb25
* Refresh this page often for selection updates

11 Top Selections...

1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.574/6-3 
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.596/8-4   
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.576/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.526/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).587/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 

Round-by-Round Selections, Spots #12-21...

Round 12
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.555/2-4
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Christopher Newport (CAC): .778 (21-6)/.546/3-2
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2

Round 13
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.555/2-4
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2

Round 14
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2 
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2

Round 15
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) --  Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2 
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3   

Round 16
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) --  Franklin and Marshall (CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4     
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3   

Round 17
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 18
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 19
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 20
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- UW-River Falls (WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.589/3-7
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 21
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- Ripon (MWC): .720 (18-7)/.541/1-2
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

--------------------------------------------------------------
Pool C Table Order (regional ranking projection)...

Atlantic
* New Jersey City (NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4 
* Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3

Central
* UW-Platteville (WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.576/4-1 
* UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.555/2-4 

* North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
* Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
* UW-River Falls (WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.589/3-7

East
* Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
* Brockport (SUNYAC): .731 (19-7)/.529/3-3

Great Lakes
* Wooster (NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3 
* Marietta (OAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-5 

* Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC): .679 (19-9)/.564/3-5

Middle Atlantic
* Swarthmore (CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4 
* Christopher Newport (CAC): .778 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
* Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
* Franklin and Marshall (CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4   

Northeast
* Hamilton (NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.574/6-3 
* Wesleyan (NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.596/8-4
* Middlebury (NESCAC): .760 (19-6).587/4-6   

* Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
* Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2

* Keene State (LEC): .679 (19-9)/.576/2-6
* Salem State (MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.513/1-2

South
* Emory (UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2
* East Texas Baptist (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
* LeTourneau (ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2

West
* Whitman (NWC): .962 (25-1)/.526/4-1
* St. John's (MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.525/3-2 

* St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
* Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

The regional ranking projections show Ohio Wesleyan behind Wooster and Etta.  However, the pick-by-pick selection process shows ONU at the table.  Which is correct or am I reading this wrong?

I believe they started with the assumption that Ohio Wesleyan would get to the table after Marietta/Wooster...however information gleaned during the program led them to believe Ohio Northern finished ranked ahead of OWU in the final ranking.

Offline Onward on, John Carroll

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7663 on: February 26, 2018, 08:54:55 am »
Hoopsville Selection Special - Mock Pool C Selection Process
(Dave McHugh, Ryan Scott, Bob Quillman)

* Watch us live here - http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2017-18/feb25
* Refresh this page often for selection updates

11 Top Selections...

1. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.574/6-3 
2. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.596/8-4   
3. UW-Platteville (CE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.576/4-1   
4. Whitman (WE/NWC): .962 (25-1)/.526/4-1
5. Swarthmore (MA/CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4   
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2 
7. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).587/4-6   
8. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3
9. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-5   
10. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4   
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2 

Round-by-Round Selections, Spots #12-21...

Round 12
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.555/2-4
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Christopher Newport (CAC): .778 (21-6)/.546/3-2
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2

Round 13
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.555/2-4
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2

Round 14
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2 
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2

Round 15
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) --  Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2 
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3   

Round 16
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) --  Franklin and Marshall (CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4     
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3   

Round 17
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 18
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-8)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 19
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 20
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- UW-River Falls (WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.589/3-7
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

Round 21
(Atlantic) -- Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3
(Central) -- Ripon (MWC): .720 (18-7)/.541/1-2
(East) -- Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
(Great Lakes) -- Ohio Northern .679 (19-9)/.549/4-6
(Mid Atlantic) -- Lycoming (MACC): .720 (18-7)/.517/1-4
(Northeast) -- Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2
(South)   East Texas Baptist U. (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
(West) -- Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

--------------------------------------------------------------
Pool C Table Order (regional ranking projection)...

Atlantic
* New Jersey City (NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.567/6-4 
* Gwynedd Mercy (CSAC): .769 (20-6)/.518/2-3

Central
* UW-Platteville (WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.576/4-1 
* UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.555/2-4 

* North Central (CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.564/4-5 
* Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6 
* UW-River Falls (WIAC): .667 (18-9)/.589/3-7

East
* Hobart (LL): .808 (21-5)/.524/1-2
* Brockport (SUNYAC): .731 (19-7)/.529/3-3

Great Lakes
* Wooster (NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-3 
* Marietta (OAC): .778 (21-6)/.565/4-5 

* Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC): .679 (19-9)/.564/3-5

Middle Atlantic
* Swarthmore (CC): .815 (22-5)/.542/3-4 
* Christopher Newport (CAC): .778 (21-6)/.546/3-2   
* Albright (Commonwealth): .769 (20-6)/.544/3-2   
* Franklin and Marshall (CC): .769 (20-6)/.536/3-4   

Northeast
* Hamilton (NESCAC): .846 (22-4)/.574/6-3 
* Wesleyan (NESCAC): .778 (21-6)/.596/8-4
* Middlebury (NESCAC): .760 (19-6).587/4-6   

* Amherst (NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.570/4-6
* Springfield (NEWMAC): .692 (18-8)/.558/4-2

* Keene State (LEC): .679 (19-9)/.576/2-6
* Salem State (MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.513/1-2

South
* Emory (UAA): .840 (21-4)/.530/4-2
* East Texas Baptist (ASC): .750 (21-7)/.538/2-6
* LeTourneau (ASC): .852 (23-4)/.511/2-2

West
* Whitman (NWC): .962 (25-1)/.526/4-1
* St. John's (MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.525/3-2 

* St. Olaf (MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   
* Loras (IIAC): .731 (19-7)/.543/2-3

The regional ranking projections show Ohio Wesleyan behind Wooster and Etta.  However, the pick-by-pick selection process shows ONU at the table.  Which is correct or am I reading this wrong?

I believe they started with the assumption that Ohio Wesleyan would get to the table after Marietta/Wooster...however information gleaned during the program led them to believe Ohio Northern finished ranked ahead of OWU in the final ranking.

Thank you.  I did not listen to the show last night (I always save the Sunday show replay for work on Monday).

Offline spwood

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Re: Pool C
« Reply #7664 on: February 26, 2018, 09:21:48 am »
So as someone who is trying to learn the selection process (I am well versed on how D-III hockey does it and I follow D-III hoops, but this is my first real time following the complete process), I am intrigued by Hobart.  People seem split on them getting in.  They have a very high WIN%, but their SOS would be the weakest of the Pool Cs (and weaker than many teams left out) and would be the only Pool C team with only one win against ranked teams (again less than many teams being left out).  Can WIN% be enough to get a team in?  On the hockey side I would predict that their SOS and RNK would sink them, but here people seem split 50/50.

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen! ;D

Steve Wood
Plattsburgh State '99
Penn State '95