Author Topic: MBB: NEWMAC  (Read 533336 times)

Offline WPI89

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3720 on: January 26, 2019, 04:57:55 pm »
Rolliní

Offline BaboNation

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3721 on: January 28, 2019, 04:32:12 pm »
Missed The Babson home game against Coast Guard (and probably glad I did).  Taking nothing away from The Academy, this was a bad loss;  not the opponent, but the margin of defeat at home in a game, apparently, they were never really in. 
Hard to fathom this is the same team that took MIT to overtime at The Cage a week ago.  Itís eerily similar to the earlier home loss to Brandeis (again, not the opponent, but the margin - 74-49).
I can only hope they can recover in the same way they did after Brandeis (road win @ undefeated Amherst), because MIT is stopping by Staake on Wednesday.

Online Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3722 on: January 30, 2019, 01:49:20 pm »


The Hoopsville Marathon Show ... is tomorrow!

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Offline WPI89

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3723 on: January 30, 2019, 03:24:13 pm »
We will be there Dave - maybe not for all of it - have a great show...............oh and keep moving WPI up those "other receiving votes" list!  :)

Offline BaboNation

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3724 on: January 30, 2019, 04:53:45 pm »
We will be there Dave - maybe not for all of it - have a great show...............oh and keep moving WPI up those "other receiving votes" list!  :)

Being a NEWMAC supporter it is sometimes discouraging to see how low (relatively speaking) the league teams fair in the voting.  Iím not picking on D3Hoops here, because Massey has similar rankings.
But here are some facts:

In 3 of the last 4 years the NEWMAC has produced the last team standing from New England (last year it was 2 teams).
This year the NEWMAC had a 7-6 W-L record against the NESCAC.  This is not intended as NESCAC-bashing, but there are currently SIX teams from the NESCAC rated higher than 15-4 WPI in both polls.
Babson has won 3 of their last 4 meetings with Amherst at LeFrak, and only one of those wins was with Joey Flannery.  Fluke?  How many other teams can claim that achievement - even in the NESCAC?

I can only hope MIT plays well enough to host opening weekend (at minimum) for the NCAAís.  My dream scenario, to ďforceĒ the committee to invite 3 NEWMAC schools would be for MIT to run the table until the NEWMAC championship,  have WPI finish the regular season 20-5, and have Emerson, Springfield, or Babson win the NEWMAC auto-invite.

To hear some folks talk the NEWMAC is destined to be a 1 bid conference, barring an upset of MIT.  I think that would be unfortunate.

Offline WPI89

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3725 on: January 30, 2019, 09:45:03 pm »
Lucky 7 in a row.

Online Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3726 on: January 31, 2019, 02:01:41 am »
While the top of the NEWMAC has produced good teams, the middle and bottom of the conference usually aren't in the conversation. As a result, some of the Massey type numbers drag everyone down. Furthermore, when a team like Springfield struggles and MIT is dealing with injuries, it is hard to evaluate the true strength of the conference from top to bottom.

Finally, just because one or two teams have success does not mean the entire conference is thus better than they are. Benedictine had an incredible season a few years ago - nearly going undefeated and winning a national championship, but that doesn't mean the NACC is some incredible conference that should be ranked highly. Thomas More women have been one of the best programs in the last ten years in Division III, but that doesn't mean the PAC is some insanely good conference.

MIT, Babson, and others have had some memorable seasons and Babson has won the crown. The NEWMAC is considered one of the top 15-20 conferences in the country, but just because a couple of teams have had success doesn't mean the entire conference is that much better as well.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Offline BaboNation

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3727 on: January 31, 2019, 11:17:24 am »
While the top of the NEWMAC has produced good teams, the middle and bottom of the conference usually aren't in the conversation. As a result, some of the Massey type numbers drag everyone down. Furthermore, when a team like Springfield struggles and MIT is dealing with injuries, it is hard to evaluate the true strength of the conference from top to bottom.

Finally, just because one or two teams have success does not mean the entire conference is thus better than they are. Benedictine had an incredible season a few years ago - nearly going undefeated and winning a national championship, but that doesn't mean the NACC is some incredible conference that should be ranked highly. Thomas More women have been one of the best programs in the last ten years in Division III, but that doesn't mean the PAC is some insanely good conference.

MIT, Babson, and others have had some memorable seasons and Babson has won the crown. The NEWMAC is considered one of the top 15-20 conferences in the country, but just because a couple of teams have had success doesn't mean the entire conference is that much better as well.

I appreciate the feedback Dave.

To clarify, Iím not trying to say that the NEWMAC is an elite conference from top to bottom.  But neither is the NESCAC or any other conference.
Within the NEWMAC, while some teams have been strong for a decade or more, the mix of teams that are in the top tier (4) of the conference tends to vary, often year to year.  So, if the conference itself is holding its own head-to-head with a conference like the NESCAC (7-6) this year, itís puzzling how 6 NESCAC teams (fully more than half of that conference)  could be ranked higher than the 2nd ranked team in the NEWMAC (WPI).
Of course those 13 games are a small sample size and some teams play more games against that conference, and against arguably lesser opponents, but I do think they add merit to the discussion.
Right now teams like Clark are a drag on the ďconference rankingsĒ.  I get that.  (Have they named a new coach for next year?).  But Iíd expect the top 2 teams from the conference, as you say in a 15-20th ranked conference to be ranked higher than 42/43 (D3Hoops) or 52nd (Massey).  Take the midpoint (17.5) x 2nd ranked team, and a rank of 35 for WPI would be more reasonable to me.
Maybe thatís quibbling.

Meanwhile a fully healthy MIT took apart Babson last night.  Going forward the interesting discussion might be a hosting decision within New England in the 2nd weekend.  This is all conjecture at this point, but assuming the currently ranked teams win out, would the committee have to choose between MIT and Williams?

Looking forward to your show as my time allows.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 11:19:45 am by BaboNation »

Online nescac1

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3728 on: January 31, 2019, 12:18:57 pm »
BaboNation, looking at WPI, I think they are ranked fairly because of a very weak schedule to date.  What are WPI's best wins exactly?  Tufts?  Coast Guard?  Salem State?   Certainly WPI has no wins vs. other teams in the top-15 of the region.  And losing by 30 to an MIT team missing two key players in the only game vs. a top 25 team doesn't exactly help WPI's cause.  WPI has also played a pretty soft NEWMAC schedule to date, including four of its league wins over league bottom-feeders Wheaton and Clark.  WPI will have a chance to make its case over the next five games, which are a bit tougher.  But WPI needs to beat a few good teams to prove it belongs in the conversation.  Compare some of the quality wins the top-6 NESCAC teams have:

Williams: Wesleyan x2, Montclair State, Moravian, maybe Yeshiva (which has been red hot since losing to Williams)
Wesleyan: Plattsburgh State, Midd, Hamilton, Amherst
Amherst: Eastern Conn, Williams
Midd: Williams, Endicott, Skidmore

Hamilton, like WPI, lacks any sort of signature win (Keene State is probably the best), but Hamilton has only two losses and did return just about everyone from last year's Sweet 16 team so they have probably gotten a bit of the benefit of the doubt despite a very weak non-league schedule and back-loaded league schedule (still yet to play Midd, Amherst, Williams). 

I also note that while NEWMAC has a 7-6 edge over NESCAC, NEWMAC has gone (I believe) 1-3 vs. the top six NESCAC teams (Wesleyan, Midd, Williams, Hamilton, Colby and Amherst), so a number of the NEWMAC-NESCAC games won by NEWMAC have been top-half NEWMAC teams (MIT, Babson, WPI) vs. bottom-half NESCAC teams.   

Offline BaboNation

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3729 on: January 31, 2019, 03:06:51 pm »
BaboNation, looking at WPI, I think they are ranked fairly because of a very weak schedule to date.  What are WPI's best wins exactly?  Tufts?  Coast Guard?  Salem State?   Certainly WPI has no wins vs. other teams in the top-15 of the region.  And losing by 30 to an MIT team missing two key players in the only game vs. a top 25 team doesn't exactly help WPI's cause.  WPI has also played a pretty soft NEWMAC schedule to date, including four of its league wins over league bottom-feeders Wheaton and Clark.  WPI will have a chance to make its case over the next five games, which are a bit tougher.  But WPI needs to beat a few good teams to prove it belongs in the conversation.  Compare some of the quality wins the top-6 NESCAC teams have:

Williams: Wesleyan x2, Montclair State, Moravian, maybe Yeshiva (which has been red hot since losing to Williams)
Wesleyan: Plattsburgh State, Midd, Hamilton, Amherst
Amherst: Eastern Conn, Williams
Midd: Williams, Endicott, Skidmore

Hamilton, like WPI, lacks any sort of signature win (Keene State is probably the best), but Hamilton has only two losses and did return just about everyone from last year's Sweet 16 team so they have probably gotten a bit of the benefit of the doubt despite a very weak non-league schedule and back-loaded league schedule (still yet to play Midd, Amherst, Williams). 

I also note that while NEWMAC has a 7-6 edge over NESCAC, NEWMAC has gone (I believe) 1-3 vs. the top six NESCAC teams (Wesleyan, Midd, Williams, Hamilton, Colby and Amherst), so a number of the NEWMAC-NESCAC games won by NEWMAC have been top-half NEWMAC teams (MIT, Babson, WPI) vs. bottom-half NESCAC teams.

I understand your point of view, but I donít agree with it.

Each season should be viewed as a clean slate, not getting any benefit of the doubt based on last yearís performance.  Thatís for preseason polls (see Springfield).
But hereís the real issue to me - you are using intra-NESCAC wins as a sign of the worthiness of NESCAC team rankings, but that doesnít seem to carry over to NEWMAC teams.  The thinking seems to be:  Amherst is very good because they beat Williams;  Wesleyan is very good because they beat Middlebury;  Colby is very good because they beat Hamilton.  If Bowdoin beats Middlebury tomorrow I wonít be surprised if they too leapfrog WPI.
Colby is the most egregious example when compared to WPI, imo.  15 wins vs. 16 for WPI;  6 wins over teams with losing records vs. 5 for WPI.
Within the NEWMAC I think a healthy MIT team is head and shoulders above anyone else.  I have WPI, Babson and Emerson evenly grouped in the next tier, so contrary to prevailing thinking, I consider WPIís win over Emerson to be meritorious.  Since the NEWMAC plays a balanced schedule within the conference itís perplexing to understand how WPIís conference schedule (9 of 14 games in) can be considered ďsoftĒ.  Theyíve already played each opponent at least once, just like every other team. And their out of conference schedule includes just 2 games against teams with losing records.  Thatís ďweakĒ?
Furthermore, I donít consider either Hamilton (9 wins over teams with losing records), or Amherst (8 such wins) to be top-25 teams.  Top-35/40? Ok.  In both cases these teams have won over half their games vs. losing teams.  And Iím not just reading box scores - Iíve watched each team 5 times or more.
Maybe a generation from now this will all be settled with D1-styled mega-conferences.

Online nescac1

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3730 on: January 31, 2019, 03:33:07 pm »
When I say WPI's NEWMAC schedule to date is soft, I am referring to the fact that they've played the worst two teams twice each, but everyone else once.  Also, their remaining games against the mid-tier teams are all on the road.  So their in-league record right NOW benefits from that imbalance.  Certainly that evens out after the next five games. 

And intra-NESCAC wins are only worthy against GOOD teams in the NESCAC.  I'm not counting wins against Bowdoin, Bates, Conn, Trinity, or even Tufts (which is the most arguable).  Same goes with NEWMAC.  Sorry, but Emerson (which was soundly beaten by two NESCAC teams) is not good.  Yes, they beat MIT, but that MIT team was totally depleted by injuries, and easily handled Emerson in the rematch.  If WPI beats MIT now that they are healthy, that is of course a very good win.  Babson would also be a solid win.  They have not, however, won vs. those teams as of yet.  If you are saying WPI is underranked because of a win against Emerson, that is a pretty thin reed to stand on. 

Whether Hamilton or Amherst are top 25 teams (and the voters consider both of them to be, which is saying something) or top 35-40 teams, WPI still hasn't beaten a single team remotely close to a top 40 team nationally.  All of the NESCAC teams you've mentioned, other than Hamilton, have, in many cases multiple times.  And Hamilton has two fewer losses than WPI (and 3 of WPI's losses were to teams that are not ranked and are not receiving votes in the poll), which matters.  (I would agree that Hamilton probably hasn't earned its current ranking by the way, but I do see them as a legit top-25 team).   Comparing WPI to NESCAC teams with similar records -- Midd, Amherst and Wesleyan -- the NESCAC teams have better wins and their losses tend to be better losses (except, cryptically, Tufts, which has been all over the map this season with weird wins and weird losses).  Colby, there you have more of an argument, but beating Hamilton and Amherst back-to-back on the road just this past weekend was very impressive.  And again, WPI doesn't have one win of that caliber this season, let alone two. 

Online Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3731 on: February 01, 2019, 12:44:25 am »
I haven't voted for WPI as of yet for the examples already stated ... they haven't beaten anyone in the Top 40 or so in the nation. They had a four-game losing streak. The best teams on WPI's schedule ... they have lost.

One might not like the fact that teams who have significant wins have them over their conference opponents, but those opponents are good. WPI hasn't beaten the best teams in their own conference and games they have won are against average teams.

And the NESCAC is a Top 5 conference in the country. They are absolutely, from top to bottom, an elite conference. And there are others who are elite.

I get you say the NEWMAC is 7-6 v the NESCAC, but those teams with big wins are recognized and those in the NESCAC with big wins aren't necessarily against those the NEWMAC has played.

BTW - the point of having to choose between Williams and MIT to host in the second weekend (which is so far down the hypothesis-hole it isn't funny), they could choose both if they wanted. They don't have to choose one or the other. Furthermore, the national rankings won't mean a damn thing to the committee with those decisions. The selection criteria that is used for Regional Rankings, selections, bracketing, etc. will be used.

The NEWMAC is a good conference, but I have no reason right now to rank Babson, WPI, or others outside of MIT. That isn't a knock on the NEWMAC. There is so much parity and good teams in the Division III that one simply cannot rank every single team one thinks is a TOp 25 team. I am considering, at minimum, 40 teams a week. They can't all be there. Plain and simple.

WPI has four losses ... they have a lot of wins ... their SOS is actually a good .543 right now, but it will come down because conference play will bring that down. However, if they keep winning .. they will be ranked. They have games against Babson, Springfield (even if they are not great record wise, voters know the talent there), and MIT ... not to mention Emerson who has had some key wins. Win most or all of those games and WPI will be recognized, but if they do what they did earlier and lose to Babson and get blown out by MIT ... it isn't going to happen.
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Online Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3732 on: February 06, 2019, 04:15:21 pm »
Here are the first rankings for the men this season: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/men-regional-rankings-first
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Offline WPI89

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3733 on: February 06, 2019, 10:31:23 pm »
Deflating loss. Tremendous win. Such is the life with a great coach and basically all sophs and frosh. Good night to be a GOAT fan.

Offline WPI89

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Re: MBB: NEWMAC
« Reply #3734 on: February 09, 2019, 02:04:51 pm »
Emerson broadcast is tremendous. Having some audio issues but student announcers and cameras are great.