Author Topic: NE Region General Questions  (Read 159957 times)

Offline D3ball1845

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Re: NE Region General Questions
« Reply #900 on: February 28, 2017, 12:10:06 am »
I understand that Endicott was ranked behind them and that it appeared that the committee just took the top 10 from the NE. I think the fact that Keene State was ranked regionally is just as baffling. I understand that their conference is viewed as stronger than the CCC but I have made comparisons in the past with teams such as Roger Williams to make my case. I'm a bit biased as a RWU fan and certainly do not think they deserved a bid with their disappointing end of the season.

Comparatively, Keene State was below .680 WP, with a .576 SOS, in a questionable 2 bid conference, and was 3-4 vRRO. I won't dive in to the common opponents faced by both teams, in which the record heavily favors RWU. Then there is RWU who was .730 WP, a few points below .500 SOS, in a historically one bid conference, and 2-1 vRRO. Hence, my comment about how much pull the SOS must have had in the selection process this year. Again, this isn't me complaining that RWU wasn't selected, rather an attempt to demonstrate why I'm confused why Keene State was selected regionally and for the NCAAs.

You're arguing Roger Williams?  Keene's SOS was dominant. If your SOS is below .500, you can't have more than 2 losses to get ranked in the NE.  A few years back Albertus was 27-1, I think, and 8th in the region.  SOS matters a lot.  Below .500 is just unacceptable for national contention.

I clearly stated I wasn't arguing RWU deserved an at-large NCAA bid. If they however went to the conference finals versus Nichols instead of Endicott, it might be different. I was using them as a comparison with Keene State, whom I don't think deserves to be regionally ranked or in the NCAA tournament. I understand that Keene State's SOS is almost .1 higher than Roger Williams. There is nothing Roger Williams can really do about that due to their weak conference.

However, along with win percentage and vRRO (both favoring RWU), you look at common opponents between these two (RIC, UNE, and uMass Dartmouth). Keene State is 3-3 against these teams, including an abysmal loss to UNE (who is a bottom three team of the CCC that contributes to RWUs low SOS because they play them twice), while RWU is 4-0. How can this not raise some eyebrows? I have stated this many times and no one has had an answer for me. The only thing a team like Keene State has on RWU is their SOS. You could say the same thing for Endicott and Nichols when comparing them with Keene State as well. So, what I'm really trying to get at is is the SOS the primary statistic that the committee looked at when deciding this year? I understand the committee can't delve that deep into the teams and their schedules when selecting but I can't see how I'm not making a legitimate point.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: NE Region General Questions
« Reply #901 on: February 28, 2017, 12:16:46 am »
The committees actually do delve that deep into teams to figure it all out... but when an SOS is .100 different we aren't even in the same ballpark when there is a comparison.

To help out... if teams' SOS difference is .030 it equals 2 games. So for the higher SOS team, add two wins and remove two losses and for the lower SOS team, remove two wins and add two losses. If the SOS different is .060 make it four games. But don't go beyond that.

Do that math when comparing Keene State and Roger Williams... you may see why the committees didn't have to go very far to make a decision. Since it was .100 we will only use the .060 = 4 games shift. That is what the committees are doing if they are comparing the two (and they are). That right there is going to end the comparison.

Keene State's 19-9 because 23-6... Roger Williams 19-7 because 15-11 and we still have a large discrepancy here.

I understand you are trying to make a case, but you are trying to ignore a major criteria point that is killing Roger Williams' chances here... and Keene's .576 is damn good.
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Offline Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

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Re: NE Region General Questions
« Reply #902 on: February 28, 2017, 08:33:53 am »
I understand that Endicott was ranked behind them and that it appeared that the committee just took the top 10 from the NE. I think the fact that Keene State was ranked regionally is just as baffling. I understand that their conference is viewed as stronger than the CCC but I have made comparisons in the past with teams such as Roger Williams to make my case. I'm a bit biased as a RWU fan and certainly do not think they deserved a bid with their disappointing end of the season.

Comparatively, Keene State was below .680 WP, with a .576 SOS, in a questionable 2 bid conference, and was 3-4 vRRO. I won't dive in to the common opponents faced by both teams, in which the record heavily favors RWU. Then there is RWU who was .730 WP, a few points below .500 SOS, in a historically one bid conference, and 2-1 vRRO. Hence, my comment about how much pull the SOS must have had in the selection process this year. Again, this isn't me complaining that RWU wasn't selected, rather an attempt to demonstrate why I'm confused why Keene State was selected regionally and for the NCAAs.

You're arguing Roger Williams?  Keene's SOS was dominant. If your SOS is below .500, you can't have more than 2 losses to get ranked in the NE.  A few years back Albertus was 27-1, I think, and 8th in the region.  SOS matters a lot.  Below .500 is just unacceptable for national contention.

I clearly stated I wasn't arguing RWU deserved an at-large NCAA bid. If they however went to the conference finals versus Nichols instead of Endicott, it might be different. I was using them as a comparison with Keene State, whom I don't think deserves to be regionally ranked or in the NCAA tournament. I understand that Keene State's SOS is almost .1 higher than Roger Williams. There is nothing Roger Williams can really do about that due to their weak conference.

However, along with win percentage and vRRO (both favoring RWU), you look at common opponents between these two (RIC, UNE, and uMass Dartmouth). Keene State is 3-3 against these teams, including an abysmal loss to UNE (who is a bottom three team of the CCC that contributes to RWUs low SOS because they play them twice), while RWU is 4-0. How can this not raise some eyebrows? I have stated this many times and no one has had an answer for me. The only thing a team like Keene State has on RWU is their SOS. You could say the same thing for Endicott and Nichols when comparing them with Keene State as well. So, what I'm really trying to get at is is the SOS the primary statistic that the committee looked at when deciding this year? I understand the committee can't delve that deep into the teams and their schedules when selecting but I can't see how I'm not making a legitimate point.

The primary criteria are winning percentage, SOS, and results vs regionally ranked opponents.  Having UMass-D get the 11th spot helped Keene's case quite a bit, but the SOS is very strong.  The committee uses a .03 difference = 2 wins ration - and sometimes will even go to .06 = 4 wins.  They don't get into common opponents until secondary criteria - that is, if the teams are too close to differentiate.  I'm just saying that Endicott had a better resume than RWU, even if they lost one extra game, and they were still behind Keene.

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Offline D3ball1845

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Re: NE Region General Questions
« Reply #903 on: February 28, 2017, 11:08:06 am »
Wow, .03 in SOS is a two win difference. It's all making sense now. Thank you Ryan and Dave for the explanation.

Offline Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

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Re: NE Region General Questions
« Reply #904 on: February 28, 2017, 02:23:02 pm »
Wow, .03 in SOS is a two win difference. It's all making sense now. Thank you Ryan and Dave for the explanation.

The NCAA statisticians have said that's a very solid comparison.  When you get to .06 and 4 wins, it's much less solid - and if you move it to .09 and 6 it's not solid at all - which makes it very hard to compare a team with a .600 and a team with a .505.

This is where you'd see us, in the mock, talk about adding wins to a team with a higher SOS to even things out.  Keene and Oshkosh were a great example.  Keene had two more wins and one less loss than oshkosh, but an SOS almost exactly .03 below.  So once you add the wins to oshkosh (or subtract them from Keene) you have near identical WP and SOS and a much better rVRRO for Oshkosh.

By the numbers, Oshkosh is better - but then you have to have the conversation about how low a WP you're comfortable with.  Based on what we know, they took Keene well before Oshkosh - so they did consider the .630 as more negative than just straight criteria, but not as negative as we did on the mock.
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Offline mdsgoheels

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D3 at Rucker Park
« Reply #905 on: Yesterday at 08:38:09 pm »
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