Author Topic: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference  (Read 9749150 times)

Offline jamtod

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99255 on: May 21, 2020, 11:15:54 pm »
I'm curious if the "anti-body" test results will be made public, thus far I know one person who was tested and was revealed as having had it, she has no idea of how or when as she hadn't felt anything different.  If these numbers were to lower the fatality rate and hospitalizations it would put a corkscrew on the "new norm".

A lot of the antibody testing results have been made public or done in the context of data studies. It's tough to get a representative sample from the data but biostats folks (or whoever the wizards behind these things) seem to make adjustments and the fatality rate (IFR) seems to fall in the 0.5 to a little over 1% range, driven by elderly and vulnerable of course, but doesn't seem like a walk in the park for every young person who has gotten it either.

Talked to my Priest earlier tonight and he had just gotten off the phone with the family of a 34 year old to plan a funeral. Don't know if there were other complicating health factors but my wife is 34 and has health stuff too, so that hit home a bit.

Online miac952

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99256 on: May 22, 2020, 06:46:24 am »
I'm curious if the "anti-body" test results will be made public, thus far I know one person who was tested and was revealed as having had it, she has no idea of how or when as she hadn't felt anything different.  If these numbers were to lower the fatality rate and hospitalizations it would put a corkscrew on the "new norm".

There are two major antibody studies done in the US that had truly random sampling, not just people coming in who were sick at some point between January and April, and curious to know if they had it.

The first was the MLB study. It included nearly 10,000 employees and players. The infection rate was much lower than they expected; under 1%. The other major study was all pregnant women delivering a few NYC hospitals over a 3 week period. That study showed the opposite; a very high rate of prior infection, right around 14%. There are major limitations to each. With the MLB study, the socioeconomics of MLB staff and players might allow them they greater ability to stay home and not be exposed. With the NYC study, it was done in the hottest spot in the US. NYC is anticipated to have a rate in that range. Most other parts of the country however are estimated to be much lower, .5 to 3%.

A 1% infection rate in MN would be much higher than the number of positive tests so far. However, 800+ deaths and 24,000 hospitalizations in MN of the 1% is infected is alarming,, no matter the age of demographics.

Offline SJUrube

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99257 on: May 22, 2020, 10:51:58 am »
From Chad Courier of the Mankato Free Press - NCAA directs Division II programs to shorten schedule

The NCAA Division II Presidents Council voted earlier this week to cut back on the number of games each athletic team could participate in 2020-21. The one-year-only reduction is in response to the financial challenges that many Division II programs are experiencing, and projecting, for next season, created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.mankatofreepress.com/sports/local_sports/ncaa-directs-division-ii-programs-to-shorten-schedule/article_0e62ecee-9857-11ea-8b51-af1677c1fb08.html

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99258 on: May 22, 2020, 11:24:10 am »
Although the headline says the NCAA is doing this, it is really NCAA Division II member schools who made this decision in the normal way: through the D-II Management Council and Presidents Council.
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Offline emma17

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99259 on: May 22, 2020, 11:27:56 am »
From my county in western Colorado, the best reports available indicate that 9 of 11 deaths were from nursing homes and had additional health problems. The virus cause in at least one case has been questioned.
BTW: our public library has reopened - kind of.

In Illinois, 1,975 of the 4,379 total COVID deaths occurred in nursing homes.

Offline faunch

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99260 on: May 22, 2020, 12:18:31 pm »
The Fair is cancelled.


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Offline faunch

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"I'm a uniter...not a divider."

Offline faunch

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99262 on: May 22, 2020, 02:37:45 pm »
More fluff and not much substance...but there's a picture of Erdmann and quotes from Glenn:
https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-college-football-forecast-cloudy-for-more-than-gophers/570696872/


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Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99263 on: May 22, 2020, 03:44:05 pm »
More fluff and not much substance...but there's a picture of Erdmann and quotes from Glenn:
https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-college-football-forecast-cloudy-for-more-than-gophers/570696872/

Good article, faunch.  Thanks.

It had a spectacular bit of information: "The new rules also state that teams can qualify for the postseason with as few as seven regular season games. These cuts are also being considered at the D-III level."

A) DII will still have a post-season, and
B) DIII looks like it will have both a regular season and a post-season.

I still think the DIII post-season will not happen this year but the hint that they may be considering reduced qualification criteria is encouraging.

And this from the Tommies:

"As long as we have an environment with students on campus and in classes, I feel very comfortable about engaging in athletics,” St. Thomas athletic director Phil Esten said. “If we’re at a point where we are 100 percent virtual and distance learning again, then I think it’s a different conversation.”

That's a pretty low bar to starting again.  Odds are looking very good, I reckon.

Does this apply to DIII?

"The NCAA’s decision Wednesday allows football players to have voluntary workouts on campus throughout June."

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Offline faunch

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99264 on: May 22, 2020, 04:39:51 pm »
More fluff and not much substance...but there's a picture of Erdmann and quotes from Glenn:
https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-college-football-forecast-cloudy-for-more-than-gophers/570696872/

Good article, faunch.  Thanks.

It had a spectacular bit of information: "The new rules also state that teams can qualify for the postseason with as few as seven regular season games. These cuts are also being considered at the D-III level."

A) DII will still have a post-season, and
B) DIII looks like it will have both a regular season and a post-season.

I still think the DIII post-season will not happen this year but the hint that they may be considering reduced qualification criteria is encouraging.

And this from the Tommies:

"As long as we have an environment with students on campus and in classes, I feel very comfortable about engaging in athletics, St. Thomas athletic director Phil Esten said. If were at a point where we are 100 percent virtual and distance learning again, then I think its a different conversation.

That's a pretty low bar to starting again.  Odds are looking very good, I reckon.

Does this apply to DIII?

"The NCAAs decision Wednesday allows football players to have voluntary workouts on campus throughout June."

Ok i was trying to do two things at once and really skimmed over some of that.
Id be happy with a MIAC conference season...my opinion is that by November we are going to see a resurgence in the spread and number of C-19 cases. That coupled with budget issues i dont see D3 programs traveling for playoffs.


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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99265 on: May 22, 2020, 04:51:49 pm »
That June thing is for D-I.
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Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99267 on: May 23, 2020, 11:35:58 pm »
And from the Chronicle of Higher Education tracking page (https://www.chronicle.com/article/Here-s-a-List-of-Colleges-/248626) our brethren in the ARC are getting back to school, too.

* Buena Vista is in-person
* Simpson, too
* Loras is in-person
* as is Luther

That's almost half to the ARC plans for in-person classes.  Football is becoming possible there.
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Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99268 on: May 23, 2020, 11:56:26 pm »
I thought I would do a quick run down the top 25 and see where they are at:

1. NCC, considering a range of options
2. UWW, no statement yet
3. MUU, in person
4. SJU, no statement yet
5. Wheaton (Ill.), no statement yet
6. UMHB, in person
7. Muhlenberg, no statement yet
8. Delaware Valley, no statement yet
9. Salisbury, hybrid model
10. Chapman, in person
11. Wesley, no statement yet
12. Union, in person
13. John Carroll, hybrid
14. Wartburg, no statement yet
15. St Thomas, no statement yet
16. Susquehanna, in person
17. Central, no statement yet
18. Redlands, considering a range of options
19. Linfield, no statement yet
20. Bridgewater, no statement yet
21. Hardin-Simmons, no statement yet
22. UWO, no statement yet
23. Bethel, in person
24. Aurora, no statement yet
25. Brockport, no statement yet

So, the final tally is:

in person: 6
hybrid: 2 (both in person and online)
considering options: 2
no statement: 15 (obviously considering options just haven't made a press release to that effect)

As we're getting to the squeeze part of the decision-making window I expect we'll know where all these schools are going in the next five weeks.  You would think that students will need to be given direction by June 30 so that families have time to assess where their finances are at and if school is on this year.

Not long to go now to see what's happening.
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Offline OzJohnnie

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Re: FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
« Reply #99269 on: May 24, 2020, 12:28:47 am »
Actually, it's been so long since I went to school that I had to look up how it happens.  From browsing a few school websites, it looks like most registration for returning students has already happened.  New students will normally need to commit to attend around mid-July.  But it looks like you can withdraw (on the sites I saw anyways) before the first day of classes and get a full refund.  If you decide to withdraw after the first day then you pay various fees.

So, it seems the biggest hurdles for schools will be getting teachers organised and whatever social procedures are required.  Get that settled so then families can decide whether to start or continue.

It's an interesting challenge.  Of course, you want to decide as late as possible so that your answer has as much certainty as it can have.  But then schools like Bethel who commit early give their customers as much time as possible to get organised to attend.  Administrators are earning their paychecks now as they must make some big decisions in a very competitive environment.
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