Author Topic: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin  (Read 7312735 times)

Offline AndOne

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52440 on: February 14, 2020, 05:06:27 pm »
All Iím saying is that it seems like teams like BU and SNC often get highly ranked not due to the fact that they are truly superior teams, but rather because they are often easily able to build up a high number of wins/winning percentage due to the fact that so many of the other teams in their conferences are so bad. And that if they played in a tougher conference such as the CCIW they would likely not have such sterling records and correspondingly high regional rankings. You know that almost every year you hear how the CCIW teams are going to beat up on each other during the season and possibly cost some a chance at the national tournament. You donít hear that about teams who are almost guaranteed high rankings because they face such little competition within their conference(s).     
A large percentage of CCIW games are absolute wars from start to finish. In inferior conferences dominated by one or two teams, such is often not the case.

I agree with your overall premise -- that CCIW NCAA tournament contenders face a much, much more difficult conference slate than Benedictine and St. Norbert do. I don't think anyone would disagree with this.  That's pretty much a fact - Massey Ratings would prove that, for example.

But like others here, the problem I have with the road you are going down is that Benedictine beat North Central (the probable CCIW champ) at North Central. It seems unfair to me to suggest BU would not be sitting at, say, 1st or 2nd in the CCIW right now.

As far as this season goes, I think you lost the ability to make these kind of statements regarding Benedictine, credibly, the moment this game ended - https://d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2019-20/contrib/201911268xu660.

It still seems like you are, at least partially, still missing the point. This is not about whether BU is a better team than NCC. Yes, they beat them this year. But thatís the first time in four years, and only the 4th time in the last 15 meetings. But if BU (or SNC) was in the CCIW rather than their current respective conferences, I donít think you can say with any degree of certainty that they would be sitting in 1st or 2nd place right now. Not just because they beat NCC early this season when one of BUís better players at the time is no longer playing, and one of NCCís current starters wasnít even playing yet. Not when they would be facing teams like Augie, Elmhurst, IWU, Wheaton, Carthage, and NCC all twice in a season rather than many of the teams - 20 games worth for BU, and 18 for SNC I believe - than they do now.

My whole point here is that if BU and SNC were CCIW members they would have a much, much tougher regular season schedule, and could correspondingly be expected to have fewer overall wins (and thus a lower winning percentage, a lower regional ranking, and a more difficult road to making the national tournament) than their current conference(s) lineup(s) afford them.

And given your opening statement, I agree with your overall premise ó that CCIW NCAA tournament contenders face a much much more difficult conference slate than Benedictine and St. Norbert do, it seems like you agree with me. So, itís hard to understand why the major pushback?
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Offline kiko

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52441 on: February 14, 2020, 06:55:17 pm »
All Iím saying is that it seems like teams like BU and SNC often get highly ranked not due to the fact that they are truly superior teams, but rather because they are often easily able to build up a high number of wins/winning percentage due to the fact that so many of the other teams in their conferences are so bad. And that if they played in a tougher conference such as the CCIW they would likely not have such sterling records and correspondingly high regional rankings. You know that almost every year you hear how the CCIW teams are going to beat up on each other during the season and possibly cost some a chance at the national tournament. You donít hear that about teams who are almost guaranteed high rankings because they face such little competition within their conference(s).     
A large percentage of CCIW games are absolute wars from start to finish. In inferior conferences dominated by one or two teams, such is often not the case.

I agree with your overall premise -- that CCIW NCAA tournament contenders face a much, much more difficult conference slate than Benedictine and St. Norbert do. I don't think anyone would disagree with this.  That's pretty much a fact - Massey Ratings would prove that, for example.

But like others here, the problem I have with the road you are going down is that Benedictine beat North Central (the probable CCIW champ) at North Central. It seems unfair to me to suggest BU would not be sitting at, say, 1st or 2nd in the CCIW right now.

As far as this season goes, I think you lost the ability to make these kind of statements regarding Benedictine, credibly, the moment this game ended - https://d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2019-20/contrib/201911268xu660.

It still seems like you are, at least partially, still missing the point. This is not about whether BU is a better team than NCC. Yes, they beat them this year. But thatís the first time in four years, and only the 4th time in the last 15 meetings. But if BU (or SNC) was in the CCIW rather than their current respective conferences, I donít think you can say with any degree of certainty that they would be sitting in 1st or 2nd place right now. Not just because they beat NCC early this season when one of BUís better players at the time is no longer playing, and one of NCCís current starters wasnít even playing yet. Not when they would be facing teams like Augie, Elmhurst, IWU, Wheaton, Carthage, and NCC all twice in a season rather than many of the teams - 20 games worth for BU, and 18 for SNC I believe - than they do now.

My whole point here is that if BU and SNC were CCIW members they would have a much, much tougher regular season schedule, and could correspondingly be expected to have fewer overall wins (and thus a lower winning percentage, a lower regional ranking, and a more difficult road to making the national tournament) than their current conference(s) lineup(s) afford them.

And given your opening statement, I agree with your overall premise ó that CCIW NCAA tournament contenders face a much much more difficult conference slate than Benedictine and St. Norbert do, it seems like you agree with me. So, itís hard to understand why the major pushback?

The pushback is that you are arguing that we should dismiss Benedictine's record/winning percentage because they play in a weaker conference.  Yet you are also arguing that we should dismiss a tangible data point that shows a head-to-head win on the road over the current leader in the CCIW standings.

You called out seven CCIW teams that Benedictine would supposedly have trouble beating, including a Carroll team that currently sits 4-9 in the conference and that the Eagles regularly handled when they were in the MWC.  I think your perception of the mid-tier of our teams relative to the MWC's best flatters the CCIW -- especially when the Bennies handled the Cardinals on the road.

It is a bit of a stretch to dismiss the metrics when that H2H data point exists.  You keep explaining it away with an argument that suggests it doesn't count because both teams' starting lineups look different today.  In essence, you are asking us to buy into an argument that requires us to ignore the only tangible data we have, because that data doesn't support the conclusion you want.

If Benedictine beat the Sons of Warden and doesn't have a stronger record, there is a credible argument that they belong behind North Central in the regional rankings.  If they lose the matchup at the Airplane Hangar but still have stronger overall metrics, there is a case for the Cardinals being higher (or more likely, for the Eagles being lower).  But since the Eagles have both the better record and the H2H win, I have zero issue with them sitting above North Central and the other ranked CCIW teams.

Offline AndOne

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52442 on: February 14, 2020, 08:54:10 pm »
Again youíre dismissing the fact BU would have a difficult time achieving the number of wins they currently have, and will ultimately end with as a result of being members of the NACC, if they were CCIW members.
You think this is true because BU beat NCC 7 weeks ago. You refuse to consider that BU is currently an overall weaker team than it was then due to the loss of itís second leading scorer at the time.
You further seem to believe BU would regularly beat (which they would have to do to occupy 1st place) teams like Augie, Elmhurst, Wesleyan, Wheaton, Carthage, North Central, and even Carroll despite the fact that each of these teams, with the possible exception of Carroll (who except for one wipeout have lost by an average of 5.4 PPG), have personnel which would present matchup problems for BU.
Sure, BU would win games in the CCIW. But they would not do so consistently enough to occupy the upper rungs of the CCIW ladder and your constant reference to your favorite ďdata point,Ē and a ďtangible referenceĒ wonít change fantasy into reality.
Have you seen all these teams play, especially from an up close and personal standpoint? If so, what have you learned? Who on BU is going to consistently either stop or score over Micah Martin, or outplay a complete performer such as Pierson Wofford? Does BU have a shooting duo who can outgun the combo of Rhode & Dotlich, or match the combination of scoring and rebounding that Lavon Thomas offers? Anybody who can slow down Adom and Cruikshank? What about outscoring Kedrowski and Baltimore, or out rebounding Johnson and Perry? I could go on.
Stop worshiping ďdata pointsĒ and WATCH these teams play. Then process and analyze what you have actually SEEN by watching the teams. If you would do that you would see that BU, as I said previously, would certainly win itís fair share of games against CCIW teams. But they would have a much harder go of it than they do against the NACC teams, and there is no way that the one win you seem obsessed with gives evidence that BU would likely be a first or second place CCIW team.
And, there isnít much doubt their winning percentage and regional ranking wouldnít be at their current levels.
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Offline Titan Q

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52443 on: February 14, 2020, 09:24:05 pm »
All Iím saying is that it seems like teams like BU and SNC often get highly ranked not due to the fact that they are truly superior teams, but rather because they are often easily able to build up a high number of wins/winning percentage due to the fact that so many of the other teams in their conferences are so bad. And that if they played in a tougher conference such as the CCIW they would likely not have such sterling records and correspondingly high regional rankings. You know that almost every year you hear how the CCIW teams are going to beat up on each other during the season and possibly cost some a chance at the national tournament. You donít hear that about teams who are almost guaranteed high rankings because they face such little competition within their conference(s).     
A large percentage of CCIW games are absolute wars from start to finish. In inferior conferences dominated by one or two teams, such is often not the case.

I agree with your overall premise -- that CCIW NCAA tournament contenders face a much, much more difficult conference slate than Benedictine and St. Norbert do. I don't think anyone would disagree with this.  That's pretty much a fact - Massey Ratings would prove that, for example.

But like others here, the problem I have with the road you are going down is that Benedictine beat North Central (the probable CCIW champ) at North Central. It seems unfair to me to suggest BU would not be sitting at, say, 1st or 2nd in the CCIW right now.

As far as this season goes, I think you lost the ability to make these kind of statements regarding Benedictine, credibly, the moment this game ended - https://d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2019-20/contrib/201911268xu660.

It still seems like you are, at least partially, still missing the point. This is not about whether BU is a better team than NCC. Yes, they beat them this year. But thatís the first time in four years, and only the 4th time in the last 15 meetings. But if BU (or SNC) was in the CCIW rather than their current respective conferences, I donít think you can say with any degree of certainty that they would be sitting in 1st or 2nd place right now. Not just because they beat NCC early this season when one of BUís better players at the time is no longer playing, and one of NCCís current starters wasnít even playing yet. Not when they would be facing teams like Augie, Elmhurst, IWU, Wheaton, Carthage, and NCC all twice in a season rather than many of the teams - 20 games worth for BU, and 18 for SNC I believe - than they do now.

My whole point here is that if BU and SNC were CCIW members they would have a much, much tougher regular season schedule, and could correspondingly be expected to have fewer overall wins (and thus a lower winning percentage, a lower regional ranking, and a more difficult road to making the national tournament) than their current conference(s) lineup(s) afford them.

And given your opening statement, I agree with your overall premise ó that CCIW NCAA tournament contenders face a much much more difficult conference slate than Benedictine and St. Norbert do, it seems like you agree with me. So, itís hard to understand why the major pushback?

So...

* NCC is in sole possession of first in the CCIW.

* Benedictine beat NCC, at NCC.

And we should not assume Benedbictine would be in the same position NCC is in the CCIW?  Instead, we should assume they'd have 6-7 conferences losses if in the CCIW?

Offline Baldini

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52444 on: February 14, 2020, 09:46:03 pm »
As I read the last couple of pages, this is all that kept coming to mind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs


Offline bbfan44

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52445 on: February 14, 2020, 10:21:01 pm »
Does it mean much that Elmhurst beat SNC by 25 points back in November?  Probably not.  I'm hoping that Ben and NCC get to meet in the tourney.  I'll bet a buck on NCC.

Online lmitzel

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52446 on: February 14, 2020, 10:30:13 pm »
I went back to read up on this thread from the NCC-BenU game (mainly for a separate reason), but read through some of my own thoughts from that night, reminding myself of a couple turning points that didnít go the Cardinalsí way, and considered what Mark and others are saying here. I get the point about the rotational changes for both teams in the almost three months since, but Iíll agree with what almost everyone else is saying. Itís not worshipping a data point... itís realizing that it is, in fact, a data point and that it is what it is. Itís a game that, if played today, the Cardinals probably win, sure... but weíve seen this year and basically every year that weird things happen. That night in Naperville is a prime example. It happened, and we have to consider the season with that game in mind.

Mark brings up the recent history of the Battle of Chicago-Maple Avenue, and yeah, this was the first Eagle win in four years. Two of the prior three Cardinal wins came down to the wire (Mike Pollack being the hero in what Iím pretty sure was his first collegiate game two years ago, and Aiden Chang locking down his man on the final possession in Lisle three years ago.) In the years Iíve been paying attention, itís a good game between two, I would argue, relatively evenly matched teams.

Letís also remember that just four years ago, when the Eagles made it to the national title game, Iím pretty sure they took out a majority of the CCIW (NCC in Naperville included) on their journey there. Would they perennially win the league? Probably not... but theyíd be a contender most years, even though, as has been pointed out, theyíd have more losses to their resume in all likelihood.

(Also, I canít in good conscience poo-poo a team that threw a promo night for me even if they didnít tell me about it.)

Offline sncdangler

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52447 on: February 14, 2020, 11:38:50 pm »
Stop worshiping ďdata pointsĒ and WATCH these teams play. Then process and analyze what you have actually SEEN by watching the teams. If you would do that you would see that BU, as I said previously, would certainly win itís fair share of games against CCIW teams. But they would have a much harder go of it than they do against the NACC teams, and there is no way that the one win you seem obsessed with gives evidence that BU would likely be a first or second place CCIW team.
And, there isnít much doubt their winning percentage and regional ranking wouldnít be at their current levels.

Nowhere in NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Manual is the eye test a criterion for ranking the teams regionally. You can look it up. The teams are ranked based on the criteria given to the committee by the NCAA. I also feel compelled to point out that St. Norbert had a higher SOS in this week's ranking than North Central, which no doubt played a factor in the rankings. You should probably quit while you are behind.

Offline Greek Tragedy

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52448 on: February 15, 2020, 06:14:07 am »
Something I did notice in this SNC debate over CCIW schools is that, according to the Regional Rankings that just came out, SNC actually has a better SOS than NCC and Elmhurst. That will change over the next Regional Rankings because of the remaining conference games, but I wouldn't have guessed that if I didn't already know that. I think that says something about SNC's quality.
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Offline Titan Q

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52449 on: February 15, 2020, 08:33:39 am »
Illinois Wesleyan (15-7, 9-4) at Wheaton (13-9, 7-6), Saturday 2/15, 7:00pm...

Illinois Wesleyan (15-7, 9-4)
G - Pete Lambesis, 6-4/195 So.  11.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.9 apg
G - Keondre Schumacher, 5-11/175 So.  12.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.0 apg
F - Doug Wallen, 6-5/210 Jr.  11.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg
F - Charlie Bair, 6-7/220 Jr.  8.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg
F - Matt Leritz, 6-7/235 So.   8.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg
---------
G - Cory Noe, 6-2/175 So.  7.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg

Wheaton (13-9, 7-6)
G - Tyson Cruickshank, 5-11/160 So. 14.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.8 apg
G - Nyameye Adom, 6-1/190 So.  18.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.5 apg
G - Luke Anthony, 6-3/200 Jr. 11.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg
F - Cade Alioth, 6-5/205 Jr.  10.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg
F - Anajuwon Spencer, 6-8/200 Jr.  9.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg
---------
F - Gavin Hawkins, 6-7/215 Jr.  4.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg


Links
IWU Notes - https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/iwusports.com/documents/2020/2/13/Game23_Wheatonmbb2.pdf

Video - https://www.youtube.com/c/WheatonThunder

WEXG Radio - https://www.iwusports.com/sports/mens-basketball

Live stats - https://athletics.wheaton.edu/sidearmstats/mbball/summary
« Last Edit: February 15, 2020, 08:48:47 am by Titan Q »

Offline Titan Q

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52450 on: February 15, 2020, 08:59:37 am »
Lexi Wallen with 35 points last night for Illinois State - https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/illinois-state/lexi-wallen-nets-career-high-points-in-illinois-state-double/article_1bc8185f-5669-5644-a919-cf4225076db2.html.

Pretty rare to have siblings starting for college basketball programs in the same community - Doug (IWU), Lexi (ISU).

Offline Titan Q

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52451 on: February 15, 2020, 10:20:53 am »
Ladue Horton Watkins HS(MO) 6í6Ē PF, Evan Schneider, has committed to play college basketball at Illinois Wesleyan.

* Evan Schneider, 6-6 PF (Ladue HS, MO)

A D3 head coach who recruited Evan hard described him as "big, physical, and athletic."

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/10354371/5e266eb3a02325142ccbf8f7

Offline cardinalpride

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52452 on: February 15, 2020, 10:38:33 am »
Gents,
the regional rankings, as they do every year, will shake themselves out in the end. As long as NCC, SNC, and BU continue to stack wins the rankings they shall ascend!
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Offline Greek Tragedy

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52453 on: February 15, 2020, 11:05:35 am »
Gents,
the regional rankings, as they do every year, will shake themselves out in the end. As long as NCC, SNC, and BU continue to stack wins the rankings they shall ascend!

That's not entirely true, actually. Depending on who plays who, someone like SNC or BU could drop in the regional rankings, even if they win, because their poor conference opponents with low SOS's, while another team could get a boast because they play a team with a high SOS and/or are regionally ranked.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
« Reply #52454 on: February 15, 2020, 12:27:01 pm »
Gents,
the regional rankings, as they do every year, will shake themselves out in the end. As long as NCC, SNC, and BU continue to stack wins the rankings they shall ascend!

That's not entirely true, actually. Depending on who plays who, someone like SNC or BU could drop in the regional rankings, even if they win, because their poor conference opponents with low SOS's, while another team could get a boast because they play a team with a high SOS and/or are regionally ranked.

Yeah ... this is a valid point, cardinalpride ... rankings start from scratch each week - everyone removed from the board and the slate wiped clean. Then all data is looked at again. When SOS is constantly changing, it adds in the element that a reason to rank Team A ahead of Team B one week could be null and void the next week even if both teams win two games each. Furthermore, Results versus Regionally Ranked Opponents (vRRO) is added in starting with Week 2's Regional Rankings and that tends to shake up the rankings quite a bit.

We have seen teams ranked #1 one week fall to #2 or #3 another week even though they have not lost. The data is constantly changing and thus it should be assumed rankings can change outside of just wins and losses.
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