Author Topic: UAA 2019  (Read 816 times)

Offline nesoccerfan10

  • Junior Varsity
  • *
  • Posts: 4
  • Karma: +0/-0
    • View Profile
UAA 2019
« on: June 03, 2019, 01:01:00 pm »
Does anybody have any insight on the upcoming UAA season? Seems like the league will be wide open next year as teams that didnt finish as well are not graduating many people and a team like Chicago is going through a lot of change and the loss of three critical players.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 10:42:22 am by Christan Shirk »

Offline MaturinNYC

  • Junior Varsity
  • *
  • Posts: 16
  • Karma: +7/-0
    • View Profile
Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2019, 03:04:33 pm »
Bold prediction: every UAA team will have to play 7 games against a quality and determined rival that won't give an inch of space on the field because of the name on the shirt or what last year's result was, and so nobody runs away with it and it'll go down to the final games where maybe the schedule helps/hurts things (i.e. who has to play on hot/humid day in Atlanta or on a frigid evening in Boston). 

OK maybe not so bold, that's been the pattern for the past 4 seasons that i've been paying attention, where the last place team still takes points off of those above, and no one at the top has won out.  Quality programs and schools mean that every year there will be talented newcomers and experienced upperclassmen who have been waiting for the All-American ahead of them to graduate so they can show their full potential. And long may it continue!

Hard then to bet on final places, but in the interest of debate here's a guess (in alpha order) at what the final 1/3 positions could be:
Top 3:   CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3:   BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2:  CAR, EMR

But to be honest, i think the biggest surprise would be if even that fairly-broad prediction holds.



« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 10:42:43 am by Christan Shirk »
Father, club & HS coach, sometime ref and ever a fan of the game

Offline Buck O.

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 134
  • Karma: +7/-1
    • View Profile
Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2019, 09:21:38 am »
Bold prediction: every UAA team will have to play 7 games against a quality and determined rival that won't give an inch of space on the field because of the name on the shirt or what last year's result was, and so nobody runs away with it and it'll go down to the final games where maybe the schedule helps/hurts things (i.e. who has to play on hot/humid day in Atlanta or on a frigid evening in Boston). 

OK maybe not so bold, that's been the pattern for the past 4 seasons that i've been paying attention, where the last place team still takes points off of those above, and no one at the top has won out.  Quality programs and schools mean that every year there will be talented newcomers and experienced upperclassmen who have been waiting for the All-American ahead of them to graduate so they can show their full potential. And long may it continue!

Hard then to bet on final places, but in the interest of debate here's a guess (in alpha order) at what the final 1/3 positions could be:
Top 3:   CWRU, NYU, ROC
Mid 3:   BRA, CHI, WAS
Lower 2:  CAR, EMR

But to be honest, i think the biggest surprise would be if even that fairly-broad prediction holds.

Chicago is losing a lot in terms of quality--three different conference players of the year, not to mention the coach--but not a lot in terms of quantity.  Other than the Capotosto/Lopez/Koh trio, I believe that Josh Scofield was the only senior to start any games last year.  So they're returning eight starters, more or less.
While they might take a step back, I still think they'll be pretty good.   I'd put them in the upper third.

As far as who's losing the most--once more in terms of quantity--Rochester and CMU are both graduating about half their starting lineups, considerably more than any other team.  (See reply #250 in this thread.)   
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 10:42:59 am by Christan Shirk »

Offline MaturinNYC

  • Junior Varsity
  • *
  • Posts: 16
  • Karma: +7/-0
    • View Profile
Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2019, 03:41:29 pm »

Chicago is losing a lot in terms of quality--three different conference players of the year, not to mention the coach--but not a lot in terms of quantity.  Other than the Capotosto/Lopez/Koh trio, I believe that Josh Scofield was the only senior to start any games last year.  So they're returning eight starters, more or less.
While they might take a step back, I still think they'll be pretty good.   I'd put them in the upper third.

As far as who's losing the most--once more in terms of quantity--Rochester and CMU are both graduating about half their starting lineups, considerably more than any other team.  (See reply #250 in this thread.)

Great insight Buck O., but to play the game ya gotta put down your 1/3s amigo....
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 10:43:09 am by Christan Shirk »
Father, club & HS coach, sometime ref and ever a fan of the game

Offline Buck O.

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 134
  • Karma: +7/-1
    • View Profile
Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2019, 04:46:28 pm »

Chicago is losing a lot in terms of quality--three different conference players of the year, not to mention the coach--but not a lot in terms of quantity.  Other than the Capotosto/Lopez/Koh trio, I believe that Josh Scofield was the only senior to start any games last year.  So they're returning eight starters, more or less.
While they might take a step back, I still think they'll be pretty good.   I'd put them in the upper third.

As far as who's losing the most--once more in terms of quantity--Rochester and CMU are both graduating about half their starting lineups, considerably more than any other team.  (See reply #250 in this thread.)

Great insight Buck O., but to play the game ya gotta put down your 1/3s amigo....

OK, here goes, with each group in alphabetical order:

Top three:  Case, Chicago, WashU
Second three:  Deis, Emory, Rochester
Last two:  CMU, NYU
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 10:43:21 am by Christan Shirk »

Offline MaturinNYC

  • Junior Varsity
  • *
  • Posts: 16
  • Karma: +7/-0
    • View Profile
Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2019, 09:33:42 am »
Interesting, though i think you're off on NYU, who were very impressive last season and who return almost all their impact players.

At this point though should we start a UAA 2019 thread for predictions? 
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 10:43:33 am by Christan Shirk »
Father, club & HS coach, sometime ref and ever a fan of the game

Offline Christan Shirk

  • Global Moderator
  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 224
  • Karma: +44/-5
    • View Profile
    • D3soccer.com
Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2019, 10:45:26 am »
At this point though should we start a UAA 2019 thread for predictions?

Taken care of.  (FYI: The note that your message has been modified is because I changed the date in the Subject line)
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

Offline rolldeisroll

  • Junior Varsity
  • *
  • Posts: 12
  • Karma: +0/-0
    • View Profile
Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2019, 05:11:00 pm »
Recently graduated Deis player here...Excited to see how the squad turns out this year. I have a feeling that goals will be hard to come by, but the defense will stand strong, as has been the case in the past successful years. The only outlier being the 2016 team, that had to score a lot during the year. My predictions

Top 3: Rochester, Chicago, Deis (a bit biased, but who cares)
Mid 3: NYU, Case, Wash U
Bottom (but still competitive): Emory, Carnegie

I think next year can shape up to be a year where no one has more than 4 league wins, as it has done in the past. Again, as stated above, it will come down to scheduling and overall exhaustion by the end of the grueling period.

Offline WUPHF

  • All-American
  • ******
  • Posts: 3287
  • Karma: +180/-45
  • Bowling alone
    • View Profile
Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2019, 11:52:30 am »
Interesting, though i think you're off on NYU, who were very impressive last season and who return almost all their impact players.

I have to agree on NYU.

The freshmen class was impressive and will surely get better over time.

Offline Buck O.

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 134
  • Karma: +7/-1
    • View Profile
Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2019, 01:50:55 pm »
Interesting, though i think you're off on NYU, who were very impressive last season and who return almost all their impact players.

I have to agree on NYU.

The freshmen class was impressive and will surely get better over time.

My prediction regarding NYU is based on regression to the mean (or, as Bill James called it, the Plexiglas Principle).  They're the team that improved the most last season, relative to their past history, which suggests they're the team most likely to fall back some this season.