Author Topic: New England Soccer Discussion  (Read 323297 times)

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #495 on: October 14, 2015, 11:05:00 am »
Right. The 3 dates I believe are the next 3 Wednesdays. Oct 21, 28, and Nov. 4 for NCAA regional rankings.

Yep, I'm sure FW will post a link to an exhaustive explanation about how the whole thing works.

Offline ECSUalum

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #496 on: October 14, 2015, 11:57:08 am »
blooter442
I figured I'd start a quasi-weekly informal wrap-up of happenings and thoughts in the NE region. I'm obviously not as well versed on the Midwest, South, etc., so I'll keep it to NE for now, but I am working to educate myself more on other regions all the time.

EXCELLENT JOB!!! +k
Re UMBoston, I think you are right in that the Beacons tend to lose composure when they fall behind.  I think they have a few too many players who think they can win every game and this does not serve them well.  Coach Berverlin will have to get their heads cleared if they he expects his team to advance deep into NCAA post season play.  However, if they can get their act together, they can be dangerous.  ECSU's win in regular season might not have been the best for the Warriors as now they will most likely will have to beat them twice to get the LEC title, (assuming they don't get knocked out).  All things considered,  I am not sure the Warriors are better than the Beacons!  WE WILL SEE!

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #497 on: October 14, 2015, 12:16:00 pm »
Endicott is pretty good.  They will not be a pushover in the tournament and they could take a Pool C if they don't get the AQ.  They shouldn't be awed when they get to the tournament having played Calvin, Tufts and Williams. ... I'm gonna guess that Gordon needs the AQ.


My guess is Gordon definitely needs the AQ. It's not so much about playing good teams as getting results against good teams, and they're currently 0-3 against ranked opponents. I admire them for putting them on the schedule, and hey, better to lose to a ranked opponent than to lose to an unranked opponent, but the rest of their schedule doesn't make for great reading.


It is actually more beneficial to lose to unranked teams than ranked ones. You must beat the ranked teams to get noticed especially Gordon who maybe plays 2-3 a year. With an under .550 SOS and a 1-2-0 record v ranked you can expect Gordon to sit at the #9,#10 and #11 spots in the New England Regional Rankings. If they lose again they will just drop off the board but you will not see them move up many spots if they keep winning the games on their schedule. The only exception will be Endicott who might be sitting at #7 or #8. This is also one of those situations where it would be beneficial for Gordon to beat Endicott once and then maybe get a draw against them and lose in PK's in the tournament final. That way Gordon gets 2 good results against a ranked team but also doesn't drop them off the rankings by beating them twice. This is why I liked it when you had the once ranked , always ranked because you would not find these type of situations.

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #498 on: October 14, 2015, 12:17:54 pm »
Blooter's Beliefs

I figured I'd start a quasi-weekly informal wrap-up of happenings and thoughts in the NE region. I'm obviously not as well versed on the Midwest, South, etc., so I'll keep it to NE for now, but I am working to educate myself more on other regions all the time.




Well done bloots.....

Offline Off Pitch

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #499 on: October 14, 2015, 05:02:46 pm »
Projected "real" New England rankings based on games through 10/13 and modelled SOS:

1.  Amherst
2.  Brandeis
3.  Tufts
4.  Mass-Boston
5.  MIT
6.  Middlebury
7.  ECSU
8.  Endicott
9.  Gordon
10.  Conn
11.  Wesleyan
-------------------
12.  Wentworth
13.  Springfield
14.  Bowdoin
15.  Babson
16.  Wheaton
17.  WPI
18.  Williams
19.  Bridgewater St.
20.  Bates

Offline blooter442

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #500 on: October 14, 2015, 10:04:54 pm »
Oh dear. Wheaton's season goes from bad to worse with a 2-0 home loss to Bridgewater State. Currently sitting with 7 losses. Losing the two opening games to Wentworth and Ohio Northern was ominous, but they rebounded well enough. However, five losses in their last six - all by a goal - is brutal. Certainly a campaign to forget for Cushing's men given their normally high standards, but I expect that - like Babson did after their eight-loss campaign in 2013 - they'll bounce back.

Speaking of the Bears, they've quietly gone 10-2-1, and their only losses were to Brandeis and UMass-Boston. I saw them when they played Brandeis - nothing extraordinary but a good solid side nonetheless, and seeing their record now I'm not quite as frustrated as I was that night. They have to be the favorites in the MASCAC, right? I'm not super familiar with the league, but from what I know it's Fitchburg State, MCLA, Mass. Maritime, etc. and Fitchburg who won it last year I believe is 5-7 as it stands.

Elsewhere, Bates picks up a 2-1 win over Curry, who is a solid 10-5. Still, I think a 7-3-1 Bates should be winning more dominantly away from home against a CCC opponent. Nonetheless, Bates has 7 wins for the first time in as long as I can remember, so props to the Bobcats for giving us something to talk about this year.

Middlebury eking out a win over Castleton doesn't surprise me - they seem to play to the level of their opposition. When you match a good opponent, it's great, but when you get dragged down to playing like a mid-table side, it can be problematic and can cost you games in the long run. I like Conrad as he is a true CF and a good finisher, but I can't quite say I understand the hype about him as I think he gets taken out of games way too easily. He reminds me of Trevor Hoxsie of Roger Williams a couple of years ago (who, in case you forgot, was a second-team All-American) - brilliant and often makes the difference for his team, but double-mark him and shut off his supply, and he's essentially out of the game. That said, when you are the reigning NESCAC POY, you're going to be double-marked by pretty much every team you play. Still, he doesn't create enough for himself, and despite having many similarities as Amherst in terms of team size, style of play, etc. Middlebury not nearly as efficient as the Lord Jeffs.

One for the future: Thomas College. They're a good 9-4 so far this year, and while they've got one in-conference loss to Colby-Sawyer they did beat Colby away and took Bates to OT before falling. As I mentioned somewhere before, they got a real coup in landing Adam LaBrie and DJ Nicholas, two of the best players in Maine. LaBrie set the single-season scoring record at Yarmouth High School, which is currently the best program in Maine IMHO and has produced some talented players like Luke Pierce and Johnny Murphy, as well as Murphy's brother David. For his part, Nicholas scored more goals than Peabo Knoth despite being two years Knoth's junior and being on an NYA team that was far less potent than Knoth's Waynflete. Either way, Nicholas and LaBrie lead Thomas in scoring with 10 and 8 goals, respectively. Even as freshmen, I think they'd be good enough to start for a NESCAC team, perhaps a Bates or a Colby, and they'll only get better as they get older. Thomas was in NCAAs in 2012 and 2013, getting eliminated in the first round by Williams and St. Lawrence, respectively but even with losing Tre Ming after this year I think they could - with the right draw - make it out of the first round if they get back to the Tournament.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2015, 10:37:18 pm by blooter442 »

Offline Mid-Atlantic Fan

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #501 on: October 15, 2015, 08:25:47 am »

It is actually more beneficial to lose to unranked teams than ranked ones. You must beat the ranked teams to get noticed especially Gordon who maybe plays 2-3 a year. With an under .550 SOS and a 1-2-0 record v ranked you can expect Gordon to sit at the #9,#10 and #11 spots in the New England Regional Rankings. If they lose again they will just drop off the board but you will not see them move up many spots if they keep winning the games on their schedule. The only exception will be Endicott who might be sitting at #7 or #8. This is also one of those situations where it would be beneficial for Gordon to beat Endicott once and then maybe get a draw against them and lose in PK's in the tournament final. That way Gordon gets 2 good results against a ranked team but also doesn't drop them off the rankings by beating them twice. This is why I liked it when you had the once ranked , always ranked because you would not find these type of situations.

I wouldn't necessarily say it's more beneficial to lose to an unranked team because the more blemishes on your record the harder it will be to get an at-large bid. Goes back to a team like Haverford where they might end up playing 6 ranked teams and if they go 2-4 and 14-4 overall (just made up #s) they will most likely get a nod over a team who plays 2 ranked teams and goes 1-1 but loses 3 other times to average teams and finishes say 14-4. It might come down to an eyeball test but they will say hey the Fords played against 6 ranked teams and won twice with no slip ups against weaker teams as this other team played 2 and won once but lost three others to weaker teams. I guess it's all opinion but I feel that's how the process works. One loss against a bad team can crush any hope at an at-large as to where if you lose to a ranked team the committee is at least happy you played them. I'm done rambling now  ;D

Offline Flying Weasel

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #502 on: October 15, 2015, 08:53:48 am »
Mr. Right's point though is if you are going to lose, it's better that those loses come against unranked teams.  In other words, if two teams have the same overall 14-4-0 record, same .585 SOS, and same number of ranked opponents, who is going to be selected first?  The one with a 3-1-0 record versus ranked teams (with 3 losses to unranked teams) or the team with a 1-3-0 versus ranked teams (with just one loss to unranked teams)?  That's a no brainer for those of us who have followed the committee's rankings and at-large selections closely for a number of years.  Three wins versus ranked opponents impresses the committee who wants to know that a team can win against other top teams.  The committee doesn't seem to focus on the losses and who they came to as much as they want to see that a team has demonstrated they can beat top-level competition, the likes of which they will face in the NCAA tournament if selected.

Offline Mid-Atlantic Fan

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #503 on: October 15, 2015, 09:00:37 am »
I get what you are saying. That definitely makes more sense now. Thanks for the clarification!  :)

Offline blooter442

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #504 on: October 15, 2015, 09:16:42 am »
This is also one of those situations where it would be beneficial for Gordon to beat Endicott once and then maybe get a draw against them and lose in PK's in the tournament final. That way Gordon gets 2 good results against a ranked team but also doesn't drop them off the rankings by beating them twice.

But if getting to the Tournament is the sole aim, wouldn't it be better for them to beat Endicott on PK's in the CCC final? Or is there some kind of exterior bonus that comes with getting an at-large bid versus an AQ from a lesser conference?

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #505 on: October 15, 2015, 01:25:46 pm »
This is also one of those situations where it would be beneficial for Gordon to beat Endicott once and then maybe get a draw against them and lose in PK's in the tournament final. That way Gordon gets 2 good results against a ranked team but also doesn't drop them off the rankings by beating them twice.

But if getting to the Tournament is the sole aim, wouldn't it be better for them to beat Endicott on PK's in the CCC final? Or is there some kind of exterior bonus that comes with getting an at-large bid versus an AQ from a lesser conference?


Yes of course....I was just pointing out the fact that if they beat Endicott twice that will most certainly drop Endicott out especially if Endicott stumbles in other games

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #506 on: October 16, 2015, 07:17:55 pm »
UMass-B is a real roller-coaster of a team.  I saw they were up 3-1 and then refreshed the scores a few minutes and now they're 3-3 with Western CT.

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #507 on: October 16, 2015, 08:51:58 pm »
Wow.  UMass-Bos goes down 4-3 after leading 3-1 and then Kenawy gets 2 goals late and UMass wins 5-4.

Offline blooter442

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #508 on: October 16, 2015, 10:03:22 pm »
Wow.  UMass-Bos goes down 4-3 after leading 3-1 and then Kenawy gets 2 goals late and UMass wins 5-4.

I'll take the anxiety of grinding out a 1-0 over that kind of stuff! ;)

As I said before, they have great talent but no composure. Since going down for the first time last week at Babo, they've either been down in or lost all of their games. As ECSUalum pointed out, they seem to have a few players who think they're going to win every game. And while that's a good mentality to have, it's hardly realistic and you don't get the W just by showing up.

Offline ECSUalum

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Re: New England Soccer Discussion
« Reply #509 on: October 17, 2015, 09:13:14 am »
Wow.  UMass-Bos goes down 4-3 after leading 3-1 and then Kenawy gets 2 goals late and UMass wins 5-4.

I'll take the anxiety of grinding out a 1-0 over that kind of stuff! ;)

As I said before, they have great talent but no composure. Since going down for the first time last week at Babo, they've either been down in or lost all of their games. As ECSUalum pointed out, they seem to have a few players who think they're going to win every game. And while that's a good mentality to have, it's hardly realistic and you don't get the W just by showing up.

It is funny I watched most of the WCSU-UMB game, but saw none of the Westconn goals, bad timing I guess. ;D  UMB has soo much creativity on the attack and Kenawy and DaSilva are master ball handlers, it looked like a blowout was coming, but Western hung in and started to play physical with the Beacons and then broke through with a goal!!  This was not a good performance re the Beacons defense, which I had praised last month, but now looks a bit suspect!  As has been said on these threads many times, the excellent teams always rise to the top as the season progresses, so it will likely be NESCAC, NCAC NJCAC, UAA teams in the finals rounds of this year's NCAA tourney.  However, let's wait and see.