Author Topic: FB: Liberty League  (Read 4087322 times)

Offline Bartman

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52170 on: October 09, 2019, 08:03:37 am »
Visual proof of a young Bob Ridings firing the cannon while also beating on the bass drum. Bartman, this predates even me. ;D



Bartman has expressed his respect for Bob Ridings, however the cannon only reminds Bartman of his family history where it has been passed down that old Dragoon Bartman was one of the 600 in the Light Brigade that charged the Russian cannons at the Battle of Balaclava.......the cannon at Bailey is just an ancestral reminder that our coaches battle plan needs to be better than Lord Cardigan's or else you will fall to the Bailey
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"When I played college football ,I was slow, real slow, but when I caught them, it was glorious" Bartman
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Offline Oline89

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52171 on: October 09, 2019, 09:16:39 am »
So it has taken me until today to settle down from Hobart's debacle last weekend in Schenectady.  Full honors go to Union players and staff.  I had the time to pregame to walk the campus, and would certainly move the campus lower on the "most ugly" list, better than RPI, somewhere equal with St Lawrence but not on the level of Hobart,  ;D

From a football perspective, Hobart continues to confuse me.  The defensive game plan actually worked out fine.  Give up the underneath passes, don't let the deep pass beat you.  This allowed a ton of yardage up the middle,  but only gave up 16 points, overall good effort.  The offense remains a mystery.  It is clear our offensive line remains in a period of flux.  I have never seen so many missed assignments (or maybe I am underselling the Union defensive ability to read the plays) leading to unassisted tackles.  The QB situation is even more confusing, the senior starter was great last season, although unpredictable.  The best way I can put it is that he has lost his Mojo.  The So QB is talented, but completely untested, he barely took a snap in the first 4 games (that didn't really matter) so clearly, the coaches had no plans of making him the starter once the conference games began.  It is a big week for the Statesmen, I think the talent is there for this team to do damage on O, D, and ST's.  The coaching staff has a big task this week.  I am obviously pulling for a Hobart win, but this game could be 17-14, 35-14 or 14-35. 

Offline Oline89

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52172 on: October 09, 2019, 10:38:40 am »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52173 on: October 09, 2019, 11:22:38 am »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

You can remove RPI from your list, because they've got an OOC loss, so if they finish the year with one loss, it means they've won the Pool A bid.

To answer your question, I think a 1-loss Union would be in trouble, but a 1-loss Bart or IC could potentially be in great shape.

My thought is that say, Union runs the table, and IC beats the previously undefeated Red Dragons, that would give the Bombers a major "hang your Pool C hat" type of win

Ditto Hobart and Brockport, if Union wins the Pool A via the H2H with Hobart, and Brockport runs the table in the E8.

Union though, won't have that luxury. Springfield has three losses already, and in this scenario, the Dutchmen have to give Utica its third loss. And Westfield State and Anna Maria are terrible. Even if Utica and Springfield go like 7-3 or 6-4, there are going to be dozens of teams out there with wins like that—that's why those teams have 3 and 4 losses

Offline MANDGSU

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52174 on: October 09, 2019, 11:31:05 am »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

This would mean Hardin-Simmons beats UMHB, thus throwing UMHB into Pool C, I'd wager that a one-loss defending national champion would be in above a one-loss LL runner-up. As of now I can see WIAC runner-up (UW-W or UW-Plat), MIAC runner-up (St. John or Bethel), ASC runner-up (UMHB), CCIW runner-up (North Central) OAC runner-up (Mount Union or John Carroll), then possible CC (Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna, Mules) or SCIAC runner-up (Chapman or Redlands). These are not taking into consideration SOS. I think the best case scenario would be for Muhlenberg to beat JHU and JHU to beat Susquehanna, UHMB beating HSU. That open's up two spots. Then you have to think about the NJAC with Salisbury and Wesley, you'd need the loser of this week matchup to lose again, same with Redlands and Chapman. Their are a lot of scenarios at this point. It's unfortunate that some good teams may not make get invited. However, everyone is in a conference and has their chance to win their conference for invitation. 

I agree with Bombers that Union running the table and Ithaca beating an undefeated Cortland team would put them ahead of a good amount of teams. Although SOS is very import, the committee(s) can and have used their own discretion to select teams with lesser SOS.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2019, 11:34:14 am by MANDGSU »

Offline Oline89

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52175 on: October 09, 2019, 12:47:29 pm »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

This would mean Hardin-Simmons beats UMHB, thus throwing UMHB into Pool C, I'd wager that a one-loss defending national champion would be in above a one-loss LL runner-up. As of now I can see WIAC runner-up (UW-W or UW-Plat), MIAC runner-up (St. John or Bethel), ASC runner-up (UMHB), CCIW runner-up (North Central) OAC runner-up (Mount Union or John Carroll), then possible CC (Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna, Mules) or SCIAC runner-up (Chapman or Redlands). These are not taking into consideration SOS. I think the best case scenario would be for Muhlenberg to beat JHU and JHU to beat Susquehanna, UHMB beating HSU. That open's up two spots. Then you have to think about the NJAC with Salisbury and Wesley, you'd need the loser of this week matchup to lose again, same with Redlands and Chapman. Their are a lot of scenarios at this point. It's unfortunate that some good teams may not make get invited. However, everyone is in a conference and has their chance to win their conference for invitation. 

I agree with Bombers that Union running the table and Ithaca beating an undefeated Cortland team would put them ahead of a good amount of teams. Although SOS is very import, the committee(s) can and have used their own discretion to select teams with lesser SOS.

I was going om the assumption that UMHB beats HSU, Muhlenberg beats JHU.  I would assume there is no way a 2 loss team (JHU, HSU) could get in ahead of a potential one loss team from the East (IC, RPI, Hobart, Union, Salisbury or Wesley)

Offline MANDGSU

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52176 on: October 09, 2019, 01:28:16 pm »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

This would mean Hardin-Simmons beats UMHB, thus throwing UMHB into Pool C, I'd wager that a one-loss defending national champion would be in above a one-loss LL runner-up. As of now I can see WIAC runner-up (UW-W or UW-Plat), MIAC runner-up (St. John or Bethel), ASC runner-up (UMHB), CCIW runner-up (North Central) OAC runner-up (Mount Union or John Carroll), then possible CC (Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna, Mules) or SCIAC runner-up (Chapman or Redlands). These are not taking into consideration SOS. I think the best case scenario would be for Muhlenberg to beat JHU and JHU to beat Susquehanna, UHMB beating HSU. That open's up two spots. Then you have to think about the NJAC with Salisbury and Wesley, you'd need the loser of this week matchup to lose again, same with Redlands and Chapman. Their are a lot of scenarios at this point. It's unfortunate that some good teams may not make get invited. However, everyone is in a conference and has their chance to win their conference for invitation. 

I agree with Bombers that Union running the table and Ithaca beating an undefeated Cortland team would put them ahead of a good amount of teams. Although SOS is very import, the committee(s) can and have used their own discretion to select teams with lesser SOS.

I was going om the assumption that UMHB beats HSU, Muhlenberg beats JHU.  I would assume there is no way a 2 loss team (JHU, HSU) could get in ahead of a potential one loss team from the East (IC, RPI, Hobart, Union, Salisbury or Wesley)

It has happened a couple times before. In fact, Salisbury was on the beneficiary end of a decision like that in 2010, when they were selected with two losses, albeit to an undefeated Wesley and one-loss Hampden-Sydney teams.  I think UW-Platteville was another in recent memory, back in 2016.

Offline Ice Bear

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52177 on: October 09, 2019, 03:30:18 pm »
Ice Bear doesn't see a second LL team getting in...maybe IC if Union runs the table from here on out and IC's only loss is to Union. Also maybe Hobart if Union and Hobart run the table from here on out...maybe?

Ice would certainly love to see two LL teams in that mother****er though.
There's only one place that makes Shocktown look good...that's Troylet.

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52178 on: October 09, 2019, 04:15:06 pm »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

This would mean Hardin-Simmons beats UMHB, thus throwing UMHB into Pool C, I'd wager that a one-loss defending national champion would be in above a one-loss LL runner-up. As of now I can see WIAC runner-up (UW-W or UW-Plat), MIAC runner-up (St. John or Bethel), ASC runner-up (UMHB), CCIW runner-up (North Central) OAC runner-up (Mount Union or John Carroll), then possible CC (Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna, Mules) or SCIAC runner-up (Chapman or Redlands). These are not taking into consideration SOS. I think the best case scenario would be for Muhlenberg to beat JHU and JHU to beat Susquehanna, UHMB beating HSU. That open's up two spots. Then you have to think about the NJAC with Salisbury and Wesley, you'd need the loser of this week matchup to lose again, same with Redlands and Chapman. Their are a lot of scenarios at this point. It's unfortunate that some good teams may not make get invited. However, everyone is in a conference and has their chance to win their conference for invitation. 

I agree with Bombers that Union running the table and Ithaca beating an undefeated Cortland team would put them ahead of a good amount of teams. Although SOS is very import, the committee(s) can and have used their own discretion to select teams with lesser SOS.

I was going om the assumption that UMHB beats HSU, Muhlenberg beats JHU.  I would assume there is no way a 2 loss team (JHU, HSU) could get in ahead of a potential one loss team from the East (IC, RPI, Hobart, Union, Salisbury or Wesley)

It has happened a couple times before. In fact, Salisbury was on the beneficiary end of a decision like that in 2010, when they were selected with two losses, albeit to an undefeated Wesley and one-loss Hampden-Sydney teams.  I think UW-Platteville was another in recent memory, back in 2016.

Problem is, since then (yes even since 2016), we've added more AQs. Two-loss teams are such a longshot today.

Offline Oline89

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52179 on: October 09, 2019, 04:31:31 pm »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

This would mean Hardin-Simmons beats UMHB, thus throwing UMHB into Pool C, I'd wager that a one-loss defending national champion would be in above a one-loss LL runner-up. As of now I can see WIAC runner-up (UW-W or UW-Plat), MIAC runner-up (St. John or Bethel), ASC runner-up (UMHB), CCIW runner-up (North Central) OAC runner-up (Mount Union or John Carroll), then possible CC (Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna, Mules) or SCIAC runner-up (Chapman or Redlands). These are not taking into consideration SOS. I think the best case scenario would be for Muhlenberg to beat JHU and JHU to beat Susquehanna, UHMB beating HSU. That open's up two spots. Then you have to think about the NJAC with Salisbury and Wesley, you'd need the loser of this week matchup to lose again, same with Redlands and Chapman. Their are a lot of scenarios at this point. It's unfortunate that some good teams may not make get invited. However, everyone is in a conference and has their chance to win their conference for invitation. 

I agree with Bombers that Union running the table and Ithaca beating an undefeated Cortland team would put them ahead of a good amount of teams. Although SOS is very import, the committee(s) can and have used their own discretion to select teams with lesser SOS.

I was going om the assumption that UMHB beats HSU, Muhlenberg beats JHU.  I would assume there is no way a 2 loss team (JHU, HSU) could get in ahead of a potential one loss team from the East (IC, RPI, Hobart, Union, Salisbury or Wesley)

It has happened a couple times before. In fact, Salisbury was on the beneficiary end of a decision like that in 2010, when they were selected with two losses, albeit to an undefeated Wesley and one-loss Hampden-Sydney teams.  I think UW-Platteville was another in recent memory, back in 2016.

Problem is, since then (yes even since 2016), we've added more AQs. Two-loss teams are such a longshot today.

That is my feeling, I think a 1 loss team from LL (RPI if loss is just to WPI; IC if loss to Union, Hobart or RPI; Hobart if one loss to Union) has a good chance this year.  My best guess is IC runs the table, then RPI has a decent shot...especially if WPI stays undefeated.

Offline Doid23

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52180 on: October 09, 2019, 05:02:40 pm »
Visual proof of a young Bob Ridings firing the cannon while also beating on the bass drum. Bartman, this predates even me. ;D


I refuse to believe that Bob Ridings was ever young...

Offline Doid23

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52181 on: October 09, 2019, 05:13:20 pm »
Here's the Alfred-Union game of 1968 with the cannon included about 45 seconds in!   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5sPadq_T0M

On Saxon Warriors!
Nice pull Pep, very cool.  +K

Online Jonny Utah

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52182 on: October 10, 2019, 08:00:53 am »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

This would mean Hardin-Simmons beats UMHB, thus throwing UMHB into Pool C, I'd wager that a one-loss defending national champion would be in above a one-loss LL runner-up. As of now I can see WIAC runner-up (UW-W or UW-Plat), MIAC runner-up (St. John or Bethel), ASC runner-up (UMHB), CCIW runner-up (North Central) OAC runner-up (Mount Union or John Carroll), then possible CC (Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna, Mules) or SCIAC runner-up (Chapman or Redlands). These are not taking into consideration SOS. I think the best case scenario would be for Muhlenberg to beat JHU and JHU to beat Susquehanna, UHMB beating HSU. That open's up two spots. Then you have to think about the NJAC with Salisbury and Wesley, you'd need the loser of this week matchup to lose again, same with Redlands and Chapman. Their are a lot of scenarios at this point. It's unfortunate that some good teams may not make get invited. However, everyone is in a conference and has their chance to win their conference for invitation. 

I agree with Bombers that Union running the table and Ithaca beating an undefeated Cortland team would put them ahead of a good amount of teams. Although SOS is very import, the committee(s) can and have used their own discretion to select teams with lesser SOS.

I was going om the assumption that UMHB beats HSU, Muhlenberg beats JHU.  I would assume there is no way a 2 loss team (JHU, HSU) could get in ahead of a potential one loss team from the East (IC, RPI, Hobart, Union, Salisbury or Wesley)

It has happened a couple times before. In fact, Salisbury was on the beneficiary end of a decision like that in 2010, when they were selected with two losses, albeit to an undefeated Wesley and one-loss Hampden-Sydney teams.  I think UW-Platteville was another in recent memory, back in 2016.

Problem is, since then (yes even since 2016), we've added more AQs. Two-loss teams are such a longshot today.

That is my feeling, I think a 1 loss team from LL (RPI if loss is just to WPI; IC if loss to Union, Hobart or RPI; Hobart if one loss to Union) has a good chance this year.  My best guess is IC runs the table, then RPI has a decent shot...especially if WPI stays undefeated.

Yea I think right now Ithaca and Union are the clear favorites for a 1 loss pool C shot, with Hobart being a close second and RPI having the lowest chance based on their OCC loss.

Here are some situations where an LL team may get a pool C if other things fall in place:

1. If Ithaca goes 10-0 and pounds everyone, a 9-1 Union has the best chance at the pool C.

2. If Ithaca goes 9-1 with a loss to Cortland, a 9-1 Union still may have a shot at a pool C, especially if Cortland goes 10-0 and Ithaca pounds everyone else.

3. If Union goes 10-0, and Ithaca ends up 9-1, then Ithaca probably has a good shot as well.  Remember, in #1 and #2 above, Ithaca and Union would probably be top 15 and the end of the year.  In #3, Ithaca still probably stays in the top 20, although the NCAA rankings determine the seeds, not the poll. (poll should reflect most of the same criteria though as well).

4. Union goes 10-0, with Hobart going 9-1, then Hobart might get in (If Ithaca is 8-2 and beats a 9-1 Cortland, it looks even better, if IC is 7-3 or worse, then Hobart's chances go on the fence)

5. RPI 9-1 and Union 9-1?  That's another tough one.  Does WPI run the table and get ranked?  What are Ithaca and Hobart's records at this point?  How did Ithaca do against an unknown Cortland team?

6.  RPI 9-1 and Ithaca 9-1?  RPI wins the league.  Does Ithaca pound everyone else and slip up against RPI?  I say Ithaca gets the pool C here.

7.  Hobart 9-1 and Ithaca 9-1?  Same situation as #6.  Ithaca probably has a good chance at the pool C.

8.  Hobart 9-1 and Union 9-1.  Union wins the LL.  This is probably one of the tougher ones to figure out because it probably depends on how Ithaca ended up against Cortland and how Cortland ended up (with maybe Brockport's schedule factoring in as well). 


Offline Machiavelli

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52183 on: October 10, 2019, 08:44:09 am »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

This would mean Hardin-Simmons beats UMHB, thus throwing UMHB into Pool C, I'd wager that a one-loss defending national champion would be in above a one-loss LL runner-up. As of now I can see WIAC runner-up (UW-W or UW-Plat), MIAC runner-up (St. John or Bethel), ASC runner-up (UMHB), CCIW runner-up (North Central) OAC runner-up (Mount Union or John Carroll), then possible CC (Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna, Mules) or SCIAC runner-up (Chapman or Redlands). These are not taking into consideration SOS. I think the best case scenario would be for Muhlenberg to beat JHU and JHU to beat Susquehanna, UHMB beating HSU. That open's up two spots. Then you have to think about the NJAC with Salisbury and Wesley, you'd need the loser of this week matchup to lose again, same with Redlands and Chapman. Their are a lot of scenarios at this point. It's unfortunate that some good teams may not make get invited. However, everyone is in a conference and has their chance to win their conference for invitation. 

I agree with Bombers that Union running the table and Ithaca beating an undefeated Cortland team would put them ahead of a good amount of teams. Although SOS is very import, the committee(s) can and have used their own discretion to select teams with lesser SOS.

I was going om the assumption that UMHB beats HSU, Muhlenberg beats JHU.  I would assume there is no way a 2 loss team (JHU, HSU) could get in ahead of a potential one loss team from the East (IC, RPI, Hobart, Union, Salisbury or Wesley)

It has happened a couple times before. In fact, Salisbury was on the beneficiary end of a decision like that in 2010, when they were selected with two losses, albeit to an undefeated Wesley and one-loss Hampden-Sydney teams.  I think UW-Platteville was another in recent memory, back in 2016.

Problem is, since then (yes even since 2016), we've added more AQs. Two-loss teams are such a longshot today.

That is my feeling, I think a 1 loss team from LL (RPI if loss is just to WPI; IC if loss to Union, Hobart or RPI; Hobart if one loss to Union) has a good chance this year.  My best guess is IC runs the table, then RPI has a decent shot...especially if WPI stays undefeated.

Yea I think right now Ithaca and Union are the clear favorites for a 1 loss pool C shot, with Hobart being a close second and RPI having the lowest chance based on their OCC loss.

Here are some situations where an LL team may get a pool C if other things fall in place:

1. If Ithaca goes 10-0 and pounds everyone, a 9-1 Union has the best chance at the pool C.

2. If Ithaca goes 9-1 with a loss to Cortland, a 9-1 Union still may have a shot at a pool C, especially if Cortland goes 10-0 and Ithaca pounds everyone else.

3. If Union goes 10-0, and Ithaca ends up 9-1, then Ithaca probably has a good shot as well.  Remember, in #1 and #2 above, Ithaca and Union would probably be top 15 and the end of the year.  In #3, Ithaca still probably stays in the top 20, although the NCAA rankings determine the seeds, not the poll. (poll should reflect most of the same criteria though as well).

4. Union goes 10-0, with Hobart going 9-1, then Hobart might get in (If Ithaca is 8-2 and beats a 9-1 Cortland, it looks even better, if IC is 7-3 or worse, then Hobart's chances go on the fence)

5. RPI 9-1 and Union 9-1?  That's another tough one.  Does WPI run the table and get ranked?  What are Ithaca and Hobart's records at this point?  How did Ithaca do against an unknown Cortland team?

6.  RPI 9-1 and Ithaca 9-1?  RPI wins the league.  Does Ithaca pound everyone else and slip up against RPI?  I say Ithaca gets the pool C here.

7.  Hobart 9-1 and Ithaca 9-1?  Same situation as #6.  Ithaca probably has a good chance at the pool C.

8.  Hobart 9-1 and Union 9-1.  Union wins the LL.  This is probably one of the tougher ones to figure out because it probably depends on how Ithaca ended up against Cortland and how Cortland ended up (with maybe Brockport's schedule factoring in as well).

People keep mentioning RPI with 1 loss. If RPI finishes with 1 loss, they win the LL so it's a moot point. RPI is not an at-large candidate.

Online Jonny Utah

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52184 on: October 10, 2019, 08:47:10 am »
Looking at a national perspective here.  Is there any chance that a 2 loss team from the Centennial (JHU, Susquehanna), or one from the ASC (Hardin Simmons) could get a bid ahead of a one loss LL team (potentially IC, RPI, Union or Hobart at this point)?  I would assume if Muhlenberg loses to JHU, then Muhlenberg would get the bid (although I am not sure if a win against TCNJ is a better win than some of the LL OOC wins)

This would mean Hardin-Simmons beats UMHB, thus throwing UMHB into Pool C, I'd wager that a one-loss defending national champion would be in above a one-loss LL runner-up. As of now I can see WIAC runner-up (UW-W or UW-Plat), MIAC runner-up (St. John or Bethel), ASC runner-up (UMHB), CCIW runner-up (North Central) OAC runner-up (Mount Union or John Carroll), then possible CC (Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna, Mules) or SCIAC runner-up (Chapman or Redlands). These are not taking into consideration SOS. I think the best case scenario would be for Muhlenberg to beat JHU and JHU to beat Susquehanna, UHMB beating HSU. That open's up two spots. Then you have to think about the NJAC with Salisbury and Wesley, you'd need the loser of this week matchup to lose again, same with Redlands and Chapman. Their are a lot of scenarios at this point. It's unfortunate that some good teams may not make get invited. However, everyone is in a conference and has their chance to win their conference for invitation. 

I agree with Bombers that Union running the table and Ithaca beating an undefeated Cortland team would put them ahead of a good amount of teams. Although SOS is very import, the committee(s) can and have used their own discretion to select teams with lesser SOS.

I was going om the assumption that UMHB beats HSU, Muhlenberg beats JHU.  I would assume there is no way a 2 loss team (JHU, HSU) could get in ahead of a potential one loss team from the East (IC, RPI, Hobart, Union, Salisbury or Wesley)

It has happened a couple times before. In fact, Salisbury was on the beneficiary end of a decision like that in 2010, when they were selected with two losses, albeit to an undefeated Wesley and one-loss Hampden-Sydney teams.  I think UW-Platteville was another in recent memory, back in 2016.

Problem is, since then (yes even since 2016), we've added more AQs. Two-loss teams are such a longshot today.

That is my feeling, I think a 1 loss team from LL (RPI if loss is just to WPI; IC if loss to Union, Hobart or RPI; Hobart if one loss to Union) has a good chance this year.  My best guess is IC runs the table, then RPI has a decent shot...especially if WPI stays undefeated.

Yea I think right now Ithaca and Union are the clear favorites for a 1 loss pool C shot, with Hobart being a close second and RPI having the lowest chance based on their OCC loss.

Here are some situations where an LL team may get a pool C if other things fall in place:

1. If Ithaca goes 10-0 and pounds everyone, a 9-1 Union has the best chance at the pool C.

2. If Ithaca goes 9-1 with a loss to Cortland, a 9-1 Union still may have a shot at a pool C, especially if Cortland goes 10-0 and Ithaca pounds everyone else.

3. If Union goes 10-0, and Ithaca ends up 9-1, then Ithaca probably has a good shot as well.  Remember, in #1 and #2 above, Ithaca and Union would probably be top 15 and the end of the year.  In #3, Ithaca still probably stays in the top 20, although the NCAA rankings determine the seeds, not the poll. (poll should reflect most of the same criteria though as well).

4. Union goes 10-0, with Hobart going 9-1, then Hobart might get in (If Ithaca is 8-2 and beats a 9-1 Cortland, it looks even better, if IC is 7-3 or worse, then Hobart's chances go on the fence)

5. RPI 9-1 and Union 9-1?  That's another tough one.  Does WPI run the table and get ranked?  What are Ithaca and Hobart's records at this point?  How did Ithaca do against an unknown Cortland team?

6.  RPI 9-1 and Ithaca 9-1?  RPI wins the league.  Does Ithaca pound everyone else and slip up against RPI?  I say Ithaca gets the pool C here.

7.  Hobart 9-1 and Ithaca 9-1?  Same situation as #6.  Ithaca probably has a good chance at the pool C.

8.  Hobart 9-1 and Union 9-1.  Union wins the LL.  This is probably one of the tougher ones to figure out because it probably depends on how Ithaca ended up against Cortland and how Cortland ended up (with maybe Brockport's schedule factoring in as well).

People keep mentioning RPI with 1 loss. If RPI finishes with 1 loss, they win the LL so it's a moot point. RPI is not an at-large candidate.

Yes I was only mentioning them in the context of Ithaca or Union having a chance at the pool C if RPI wins out.  RPI would not have any chance at a pool C this year unless they blow everyone out, Ithaca blows everyone out (with a loss to RPI), WPI blows everyone out, and Cortland blows everyone out (except Ithaca).  I'd give RPI a 5% chance at the pool C then.