Author Topic: FB: Liberty League  (Read 4087297 times)

Offline Bartman

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52185 on: October 10, 2019, 08:54:59 am »
I am extremely impressed with the level of analysis and knowledge of  fellow LL board contributors with respect to playoff projections. This all gives Bartman a headache though, as he worries about just winning one game against the Engineers and hopes the Statesmen show resilience and has been playing Sinatra "Thats Life" all week especially the line ..."I just pick myself up and get back in the race" ....GOBART
"When I played college football ,I was slow, real slow, but when I caught them, it was glorious" Bartman
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Offline Bartman

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52186 on: October 10, 2019, 09:08:40 am »
+k to Mach for the nice dog picture signature.
"When I played college football ,I was slow, real slow, but when I caught them, it was glorious" Bartman
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers.”
― Max McGee Green Bay Packers Super Bowl I
“I never graduated college, but I was only there for two terms – Truman’s and Eisenhower’s” – Alex Karras

Offline Jonny Utah

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52187 on: October 10, 2019, 09:55:24 am »
I'll reorganize the LL pool C chances.  I'm sure I'm missing something so please correct or add as needed:

Union's Chances at a pool c:

- If Ithaca goes 10-0 and pounds everyone, a 9-1 Union has the best chance at the pool C.

- If Ithaca goes 9-1 with a loss to Cortland, a 9-1 Union still may have a shot at a pool C, especially if Cortland goes 10-0 and Ithaca pounds everyone else.

- RPI 9-1 and Union 9-1 with RPI winning the league after beating a 9-0 Union.  That's another tough one.  Does WPI run the table and get ranked?  What are Ithaca and Hobart's records at this point?  How did Ithaca do against an unknown Cortland team?

Ithaca's chances at Pool C:

- If Union goes 10-0, and Ithaca ends up 9-1, then Ithaca probably has a good shot as well.  In this scenario Ithaca and Union would probably be top 15 and the end of the year. Ithaca still probably stays in the top 20, although the NCAA rankings determine the seeds, not the poll. (poll should reflect most of the same criteria though as well).

- RPI 9-1 and Ithaca 9-1?  RPI wins the league.  Does Ithaca pound everyone else and slip up against RPI?  I say Ithaca gets the pool C here.

- Hobart 9-1 and Ithaca 9-1?  Again, probably has a lot to do with how Ithaca does against Cortland and how Cortland does overall.  Ithaca probably has a good chance at the pool C.

Hobart's chance at a Pool C:

- Union goes 10-0, with Hobart going 9-1, then Hobart might get in (If Ithaca is 8-2 and beats a 9-1 Cortland, it looks even better, if IC is 7-3 or worse, then Hobart's chances go on the fence)

- Union 9-1 and Hobart 9-1.  Union wins the LL.  This is probably one of the tougher ones to figure out because it probably depends on how Ithaca ended up against Cortland and how Cortland ended up (with maybe Brockport's schedule factoring in as well).

Brockport running the table also helps out Hobart's pool C chances big time.

RPI's chances at a Poolc C (JU odds at 5%)

(Edited from my earlier post) RPI probably has no chance at a pool C this year unless they blow everyone out and lose to Ithaca, Ithaca blows everyone out except for a small victory over RPI, WPI blows everyone out, and Cortland blows everyone out (except Ithaca).  I'd give RPI a 5% chance at the pool C then.


Some key factors into LL pool C chances: 

-How does Cortland and Brockport do in their league.  If they do very well, then the scores with Hobart and Ithaca factor in.  Same goes for WPI's season.

-A four way tie with LL teams probably hurts them, you might need a clear #1 and a clear #2 to help chances with pool C.

-Ithaca or Union winning the league and pounding opponents in the process helps the #2 team in their chances.  (Or an RPI and Hobart pounding everyone the rest of the way with the WPI/Union losses looking like aberrations from the overall schedules.)
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 10:04:44 am by Jonny Utah »

Offline ITH radio

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52188 on: October 10, 2019, 10:42:34 am »
RPI, Hobart and Union have zero shot at Pool C imo. Union's only chance is to beat IC and RPI and get in via Pool A. Their OOC schedule is weak enough to have them lose out to other Western C candidates as a 9-1 team. Zero two loss teams from the east will make it.

The most realistic cases are:

LL runner up - IC if they lost to RPI - would have wins over RROs, likely including BP, CORT and maybe even Alfred
Loser of this wkd's Wesley-Salisbury game - would actually struggle to beat out an IC in the above case bc the overall NJAC is down. Salisbury's win over a WIAC team will boost their SOS, esp if Osh Kosh ends up a western RRO W, which appears likely
WPI if they go 9-1 - would have a win over RRO, but SOS numbers wouldn't get them in imo. They are the likely Pool A winner which helps RPI's SOS even though they took the L in the RRO
WNE with a loss to EC could be considered given other loss was to a FCS team and therefore not count toward Pool C consideration, but once again, SOS will ding them as would no wins over RROs

If I had to guess today, Pool As go to:

CCC - Endicott
ECFC - SUNY M
E8 - Cortland (BP ends up 8-2, out of Pool C)
LL - IC
MAS - Fram St
MAC - DVU (SOS and no RROs keeps the MAC runner up out)
NEW  WPI
NJ - Wesley (Salisbury gets in)
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 10:50:22 am by ITH radio »
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Offline Bombers798891

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52189 on: October 10, 2019, 10:43:26 am »
Cortland holds a lot of the keys to the LL Pool C chances.

They can either be a huge feather in IC's Pool C chances, or keep the Bombers elevated so any wins over them by a Pool C candidate looks good.

Offline ITH radio

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52190 on: October 10, 2019, 10:47:21 am »
Cortland holds a lot of the keys to the LL Pool C chances.

They can either be a huge feather in IC's Pool C chances, or keep the Bombers elevated so any wins over them by a Pool C candidate looks good.
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Offline Jonny Utah

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52191 on: October 10, 2019, 11:08:57 am »
RPI, Hobart and Union have zero shot at Pool C imo. Union's only chance is to beat IC and RPI and get in via Pool A. Their OOC schedule is weak enough to have them lose out to other Western C candidates as a 9-1 team. Zero two loss teams from the east will make it.

The most realistic cases are:

LL runner up - IC if they lost to RPI - would have wins over RROs, likely including BP, CORT and maybe even Alfred
Loser of this wkd's Wesley-Salisbury game - would actually struggle to beat out an IC in the above case bc the overall NJAC is down. Salisbury's win over a WIAC team will boost their SOS, esp if Osh Kosh ends up a western RRO W, which appears likely
WPI if they go 9-1 - would have a win over RRO, but SOS numbers wouldn't get them in imo. They are the likely Pool A winner which helps RPI's SOS even though they took the L in the RRO
WNE with a loss to EC could be considered given other loss was to a FCS team and therefore not count toward Pool C consideration, but once again, SOS will ding them as would no wins over RROs

If I had to guess today, Pool As go to:

CCC - Endicott
ECFC - SUNY M
E8 - Cortland (BP ends up 8-2, out of Pool C)
LL - IC
MAS - Fram St
MAC - DVU (SOS and no RROs keeps the MAC runner up out)
NEW  WPI
NJ - Wesley (Salisbury gets in)

Makes sense.  I should add in my outline above that the other Western leagues and the NJAC would need some 2nd place teams to have 2 losses.  That could easily happen.  If a 9-1 Salisbury gets in over a 9-1 Union you can blame Union's OCC schedule which I think is fair.  But Salisbury could easily lose to Rowan and Wesley could easily lose to Montclair.  Those situations are probably the biggest factors in 1 loss LL teams getting in.

Offline pumkinattack

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52192 on: October 10, 2019, 11:18:59 am »
Brockport - cortland looks like it will be the key game outside LL.  Maybe wesley-MSU & Sals-Rowan as well.

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52193 on: October 10, 2019, 11:27:32 am »
That's true, JU. I could see Wesley lose to Sals (who only has 9 games btw) and maybe another NJAC team based on the close calls they've had already. I just feel, in general, with only 5 Cs the NCAA is going to go with only 1-loss teams. I suppose it's possible a 2-loss team with a ridiculously high SOS and wins over RROs could bump someone, but that would be an exception to the rule, imo.
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Offline Bombers798891

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52194 on: October 10, 2019, 11:31:00 am »

LL runner up - IC if they lost to RPI - would have wins over RROs, likely including BP, CORT and maybe even Alfred


Ithaca doesn't play Brockport, unfortunately.

Also, I think it is highly unlikely Alfred will be regionally ranked. They barely got by George Fox and Morrisville at home. I don't see them coming close to beating Cortland or Brockport on the road. (Frankly, I'm not sure they get by Fisher on the road). And of course, Alfred's path to a regional ranking could easily knock Cortland out of the rankings in the process.

EDIT: I should clarify that I'm going off last year's final published RR, which included just one 3-loss team (La-Crosse) that plays a schedule well beyond what LL teams do
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 11:35:46 am by Bombers798891 »

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52195 on: October 10, 2019, 11:32:27 am »
That's true, JU. I could see Wesley lose to Sals (who only has 9 games btw) and maybe another NJAC team based on the close calls they've had already. I just feel, in general, with only 5 Cs the NCAA is going to go with only 1-loss teams. I suppose it's possible a 2-loss team with a ridiculously high SOS and wins over RROs could bump someone, but that would be an exception to the rule, imo.

I agree. In the era of 5 Pool Cs, I don't see the point in trying to craft some scenario with a 2-loss team (particularly in this region)

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52196 on: October 10, 2019, 11:44:07 am »
Brockport - cortland looks like it will be the key game outside LL.  Maybe wesley-MSU & Sals-Rowan as well.

Agreed. A Port win gives Hobart the best likely 9-1 Pool C resume. A Cortland win sets up the Bombers.

Offline Ice Bear

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52197 on: October 10, 2019, 12:30:45 pm »
Ice Bear says impressive knowledge being spit here. This board is like the Wu-tang of D3 football. Best ****ing board ever!

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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52198 on: October 10, 2019, 12:58:41 pm »
I'll jump into the 36 Chambers here long enough to add:
- It's still a tad early to try and untangle Pool C. 
- When handicapping the Pool C chances of Runner Up U., you have to consider what's going on in the other three regions as well as the potential order in which teams are going to be ranked once we get to RRs.  H2Hs like Brockport-Hobart, WPI-RPI, and Union-Hobart are going to be really important.  Making no mention of what may transpire in the NJAC or E8. 
- I think the top ranked 1-loss at-large team in the East probably gets invited.  Anybody below that is on the bubble. 
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Offline Bartman

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #52199 on: October 10, 2019, 02:29:02 pm »
RPI, Hobart and Union have zero shot at Pool C imo. Union's only chance is to beat IC and RPI and get in via Pool A. Their OOC schedule is weak enough to have them lose out to other Western C candidates as a 9-1 team. Zero two loss teams from the east will make it.

The most realistic cases are:

LL runner up - IC if they lost to RPI - would have wins over RROs, likely including BP, CORT and maybe even Alfred
Loser of this wkd's Wesley-Salisbury game - would actually struggle to beat out an IC in the above case bc the overall NJAC is down. Salisbury's win over a WIAC team will boost their SOS, esp if Osh Kosh ends up a western RRO W, which appears likely
WPI if they go 9-1 - would have a win over RRO, but SOS numbers wouldn't get them in imo. They are the likely Pool A winner which helps RPI's SOS even though they took the L in the RRO
WNE with a loss to EC could be considered given other loss was to a FCS team and therefore not count toward Pool C consideration, but once again, SOS will ding them as would no wins over RROs

If I had to guess today, Pool As go to:

CCC - Endicott
ECFC - SUNY M
E8 - Cortland (BP ends up 8-2, out of Pool C)
LL - IC
MAS - Fram St
MAC - DVU (SOS and no RROs keeps the MAC runner up out)
NEW  WPI
NJ - Wesley (Salisbury gets in)
Zero shot is a bit overstated . I am thinking  if Hobart wins out to go 9-1 , Union loses to Ithaca to go 9-1 and Ithaca goes 9-1 ,we have a nice three way LL tie. In this case , if Ithaca or Union wins the tiebreaker for the pool A, I think Hobart has a great chance for a Pool C, with a H2H win over IC, and especially if  Brockport wins the E8.
"When I played college football ,I was slow, real slow, but when I caught them, it was glorious" Bartman
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