FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

As promised, here is the "tale of the tape" for the NCAA first round playoff game between Bridgewater and Delaware Valley...

Bridgewater	|	RANKINGS	|	Delaware Valley
#21	|	D3football.com Top 25	|	#9
#20	|	AFCA Top 25	|	#9
#3 South	|	NCAA Regional	|	#3 East
#98 (0.514)	|	SOS	|	#80 (0.520)
		OFFENSE
39.2	|	Points Per Game	|	37.2
413.3	|	Total Yards Per Game	|	394.8
6.2	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	6.1
241.2	|	Passing Yards Per Game	|	241.9
8.3	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	8.8
172.1	|	Rushing Yards Per Game	|	152.9
4.6	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	4.1
30:58	|	Time of Possession Per Game	|	30:59
		DEFENSE
11.7	|	Points Per Game	|	10.3
272.1	|	Total Yards Per Game	|	182.5
4.0	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	3.0
167.8	|	Passing Yards Per Game	|	136.6
5.2	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	4.5
104.2	|	Rushing Yards Per Game	|	45.9
2.9	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	1.5
3.2	|	Sacks Per Game	|	3.9
+11	|	Turnover Margin	|	+4

A couple of (obvious) statistical observations:

    * DVU has more National respect
    * DVU had a tougher strength of schedule (MAC considered stronger top to bottom than ODAC)
    * A virtual coin flip on the offensive side of the ball
    * DVU is much stronger on defense -- allowing only 1.5 yards per rush is insane (39 total sacks helps)
    * BC has the edge in turnovers allowed (7 to 18), but DVU has forced more turnovers (22 to 18)

If you dive deeper into the turnover margin numbers -- something jumps out (at least to me, it does). Delaware Valley's achilles heel seems to be coughing up the ball (27 fumbles/INTs -- 18 fumbles lost/INTs). One of Bridgewater's strengths is forcing turnovers (24 FF/INTs -- 18 FR/INTs). With a potentially cold and rainy day this Saturday (current forecast at kickoff is 39, overcast) -- turnovers may play a big part. The Eagles have a slight advantage with having played more games this year in 30/40 degree weather. Looks like the Aggies have only had one game in that type of weather (a close 28-21 win over a 5-5 Widener team to end the regular season).

Albeit early season games, here is a statistical comparison of when both Bridgewater and Delaware Valley played Stevenson (2nd place MAC team)...

Bridgewater	|	OFFENSE	|	Delaware Valley
37	|	Points	|	28
423	|	Total Yards Gained	|	304
6.3	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	6.6
217	|	Passing Yards Gained	|	239
8.3	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	11.4
206	|	Rushing Yards Gained	|	65
5.0	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	2.6
29:11	|	Time of Possession	|	21:58
		DEFENSE
22	|	Points Allowed	|	21
326	|	Total Yards Allowed	|	249
4.7	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	3.5
269	|	Passing Yards Allowed	|	216
7.3	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	6.5
57	|	Rushing Yards Allowed	|	33
1.7	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	0.8
7	|	Sacks	|	8
+1	|	Turnover Margin	|	-1

On one hand, you could take Delaware Valley's balanced offensive attack and dominant defensive performance this season and say it will be a 24-10 Aggie win this Saturday. On the other hand, you could take the turnover margin, consistent rushing attack, potential weather, and home field advantage -- and say Bridgewater will pull out a tight one, 19-17.

Because I need to take my Bridgewater fan hat off, and sleep on these stats for a couple of days -- I will reserve my "official" prognostication until later this week.

What say you?!

[gordonmann]

Nice break down.

Sounds like two evenly matched teams, regardless of the poll differential.

The Aggies defense has been special this year. The twin sophomore defensive ends are so awesome it's easy to overlook how well the other guys have played.

The offense has been inconsistent with inopportune penalties and fumbles in the red zone, but they have some good speed and big play ability on offense. I don't know if the weather nullifies that this time of year.  A fair chunk of the turnovers occurred at the tail end of blowouts. The starting QB threw 3 INTs in one game against Wesley and then didn't throw another until a ball deflected off someone's hands in the final game of the season.

Looking forward to it.

[y_jack_lok]

There are no links to video or stats for the Neptune Bowl. Guess I'll watch BC vs Del Val on Saturday until time to go to basketball games.

Does anyone know why Methodist and Shennandoah are playing each other Saturday?

[Hawks88]

They were scheduled to play week 1 but it was cancelled by weather.

[y_jack_lok]

^^^ Thanks.

[Macon]

There are no links to video or stats for the Neptune Bowl. Guess I'll watch BC vs Del Val on Saturday until time to go to basketball games.

Does anyone know why Methodist and Shennandoah are playing each other Saturday?

No Video?  Doesn't sound like a good way to promote the event.

[scotth]

There are no links to video or stats for the Neptune Bowl. Guess I'll watch BC vs Del Val on Saturday until time to go to basketball games.

Does anyone know why Methodist and Shennandoah are playing each other Saturday?

No Video?  Doesn't sound like a good way to promote the event.

ODAC hasn't even mentioned it on their website aside from having it on the schedule. Considering how big of a deal that was made about it when it was announced, you would think there would be some promotion of it. If not for this board, I would have forgotten the game even existed.

[jknezek]

There are no links to video or stats for the Neptune Bowl. Guess I'll watch BC vs Del Val on Saturday until time to go to basketball games.

Does anyone know why Methodist and Shennandoah are playing each other Saturday?

No Video?  Doesn't sound like a good way to promote the event.

ODAC hasn't even mentioned it on their website aside from having it on the schedule. Considering how big of a deal that was made about it when it was announced, you would think there would be some promotion of it. If not for this board, I would have forgotten the game even existed.

I'm wondering if the ODAC discovered everyone wanted to forget this game.

[HSCTiger fan]

There are no links to video or stats for the Neptune Bowl. Guess I'll watch BC vs Del Val on Saturday until time to go to basketball games.

Does anyone know why Methodist and Shennandoah are playing each other Saturday?

No Video?  Doesn't sound like a good way to promote the event.

ODAC hasn't even mentioned it on their website aside from having it on the schedule. Considering how big of a deal that was made about it when it was announced, you would think there would be some promotion of it. If not for this board, I would have forgotten the game even existed.

I'm wondering if the ODAC discovered everyone wanted to forget this game.

Kinda like I’d like to forget this season!

[scotth]

There are no links to video or stats for the Neptune Bowl. Guess I'll watch BC vs Del Val on Saturday until time to go to basketball games.

Does anyone know why Methodist and Shennandoah are playing each other Saturday?

No Video?  Doesn't sound like a good way to promote the event.

ODAC hasn't even mentioned it on their website aside from having it on the schedule. Considering how big of a deal that was made about it when it was announced, you would think there would be some promotion of it. If not for this board, I would have forgotten the game even existed.

I'm wondering if the ODAC discovered everyone wanted to forget this game.

Well actually they did mention the Neptune Bowl, but it was the third paragraph in the Weekly Notes. And even then it only says if Macon doesn't make the tournament they'll play in it. Nothing about game time, live coverage, tickets, etc. or a separate article about the game. I'm sure there is a reason though I have no idea what that is, it just seems strange to me to only basically recognize it in passing at this point.

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

Nice break down.

Sounds like two evenly matched teams, regardless of the poll differential.

The Aggies defense has been special this year. The twin sophomore defensive ends are so awesome it's easy to overlook how well the other guys have played.

The offense has been inconsistent with inopportune penalties and fumbles in the red zone, but they have some good speed and big play ability on offense. I don't know if the weather nullifies that this time of year.  A fair chunk of the turnovers occurred at the tail end of blowouts. The starting QB threw 3 INTs in one game against Wesley and then didn't throw another until a ball deflected off someone's hands in the final game of the season.

Looking forward to it.

Thanks, Gordon! I hope to see you tomorrow at the game.

That's a good point about some of the stats being misleading with 2nd/3rd stringers playing in the 3rd/4th quarter (when games are no longer in doubt). I haven't dug through late game stats (i.e. yards, TOs) for Bridgewater, but I'm sure it's a similar story.

What was easy to determine was how scoring offense and defense by quarter. This season, Bridgewater has scored 262 of their 392 points (67%) in the first half. Same goes for their scoring defense -- they have only allowed 4 touchdowns in the first half this season (37 total points). 80 of the remaining points came in the second half (53 of which were in the 4th quarter). In other words, on average, we are leading 26.2 to 3.7 at the half this season. If you look at our three toughest games this season -- it tells a similar story:

      at Stevenson -- 23-0 lead at the half (37-22 final score)
      at Emory & Henry -- 21-3 lead at the half (35-3 final score)
      vs Randolph-Macon -- 21-0 lead at the half (28-21 final score)

I couldn't find a standard view of Delaware Valley's stats -- but looking at their three toughest games (based on opponent's final records), they -- at least offensively -- had slower starts:

      vs Wesley -- 0-0 at the half (18-24 final score)
      vs Stevenson -- 14-7 lead at the half (28-21 final score)
      at Wilkes - 21-0 lead at half (42-0 final score)

Looking forward to it!!

[y_jack_lok]

On the R-MC website there is now a link to an audio broadcast of the Neptune Bowl.

[Jeremybozz]

     Bridgewater and Delaware Valley look to be essentially equal in most phases with Bridgewater ranking a bit better in turnover margin and Delaware Valley being excellent at stopping the run. If the Eagles are not able to run consistently will they be able to pass it? The first quarter to quarter and a half might be the time to find out as the weather forecast is drier but as the heavier rains arrive in the 2nd quarter passing could become more difficult. A coin flip of a game with Del Valley getting 50 to 100 more yards but Bridgewater winning the turnover battle by a margin of 1 to 2 could be in store. Will say Bridgewater 14, Del Valley 13 with the home field.
   Leaving the field at Scott D. Miller stadium in Wesley on December 3,2005 I never dreamed it would take BC 14 long years to get back into the D3 Football playoffs. Win or lose I will savor and enjoy the moment and frankly be happy that Coach Clark made it back to the playoffs after nearly a decade and a half. Here's to a close and enjoyable game by two very good football teams. Good luck to the Eagles and the Aggies.

[Jeremybozz]

As promised, here is the "tale of the tape" for the NCAA first round playoff game between Bridgewater and Delaware Valley...

Bridgewater	|	RANKINGS	|	Delaware Valley
#21	|	D3football.com Top 25	|	#9
#20	|	AFCA Top 25	|	#9
#3 South	|	NCAA Regional	|	#3 East
#98 (0.514)	|	SOS	|	#80 (0.520)
		OFFENSE
39.2	|	Points Per Game	|	37.2
413.3	|	Total Yards Per Game	|	394.8
6.2	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	6.1
241.2	|	Passing Yards Per Game	|	241.9
8.3	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	8.8
172.1	|	Rushing Yards Per Game	|	152.9
4.6	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	4.1
30:58	|	Time of Possession Per Game	|	30:59
		DEFENSE
11.7	|	Points Per Game	|	10.3
272.1	|	Total Yards Per Game	|	182.5
4.0	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	3.0
167.8	|	Passing Yards Per Game	|	136.6
5.2	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	4.5
104.2	|	Rushing Yards Per Game	|	45.9
2.9	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	1.5
3.2	|	Sacks Per Game	|	3.9
+11	|	Turnover Margin	|	+4

A couple of (obvious) statistical observations:

    * DVU has more National respect
    * DVU had a tougher strength of schedule (MAC considered stronger top to bottom than ODAC)
    * A virtual coin flip on the offensive side of the ball
    * DVU is much stronger on defense -- allowing only 1.5 yards per rush is insane (39 total sacks helps)
    * BC has the edge in turnovers allowed (7 to 18), but DVU has forced more turnovers (22 to 18)

If you dive deeper into the turnover margin numbers -- something jumps out (at least to me, it does). Delaware Valley's achilles heel seems to be coughing up the ball (27 fumbles/INTs -- 18 fumbles lost/INTs). One of Bridgewater's strengths is forcing turnovers (24 FF/INTs -- 18 FR/INTs). With a potentially cold and rainy day this Saturday (current forecast at kickoff is 39, overcast) -- turnovers may play a big part. The Eagles have a slight advantage with having played more games this year in 30/40 degree weather. Looks like the Aggies have only had one game in that type of weather (a close 28-21 win over a 5-5 Widener team to end the regular season).

Albeit early season games, here is a statistical comparison of when both Bridgewater and Delaware Valley played Stevenson (2nd place MAC team)...

Bridgewater	|	OFFENSE	|	Delaware Valley
37	|	Points	|	28
423	|	Total Yards Gained	|	304
6.3	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	6.6
217	|	Passing Yards Gained	|	239
8.3	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	11.4
206	|	Rushing Yards Gained	|	65
5.0	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	2.6
29:11	|	Time of Possession	|	21:58
		DEFENSE
22	|	Points Allowed	|	21
326	|	Total Yards Allowed	|	249
4.7	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	3.5
269	|	Passing Yards Allowed	|	216
7.3	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	6.5
57	|	Rushing Yards Allowed	|	33
1.7	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	0.8
7	|	Sacks	|	8
+1	|	Turnover Margin	|	-1

On one hand, you could take Delaware Valley's balanced offensive attack and dominant defensive performance this season and say it will be a 24-10 Aggie win this Saturday. On the other hand, you could take the turnover margin, consistent rushing attack, potential weather, and home field advantage -- and say Bridgewater will pull out a tight one, 19-17.

Because I need to take my Bridgewater fan hat off, and sleep on these stats for a couple of days -- I will reserve my "official" prognostication until later this week.

What say you?!

19-17? That was the score in the 2002 playoffs when King's came in from the MAC with the great defense and the high winds knocked down the King's 32 yard field goal attempt about foot short short with 57 seconds left to play and BC won by 2. BC had 18 rushing yards and Richard Jackson had 259 rushing yards by himself. Trinity TX came into Bridgewater the next week with 1 to 1.5 feet of snow on the ground and defeated the Eagles 38-32(I felt certain we could beat a team from Texas with that much snow on the ground. lol) Trinity won 2 of 3 playoff games against Bridgewater from 2000-2002.
 

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

Here is my prediction for Bridgewater vs Delaware Valley...

In the first half, Michael Nobile the Aggie defense stifles the Eagles offense, but BC protects the ball and forces DVU’s offense into too many 3rd-and-longs. A couple of short fields give the Aggies two quick trips to the end zone, including a big play from Anthony Fontana to Aaron Nelson. Delaware Valley takes a 14-3 lead into the locker room. Jay Scroggins and the Eagles come out in the second half and play inspired football, along with adjustments made by Coach Clark. DVU first adds a FG on the board to make it 17-3, but BC responds with two straight trips into the end zone (one missed EP). With BC down 17-16 in the fourth, Demetreus Jalepes breaks a big one which eventually leads to a short FG.

Bridgewater wins a tight one, 19-17.

Each team has one stat that really stands out, and IMO they will be the key to how this game is played and won. For DVU, the defense only allows 1.5 yards per rush attempt — led by Nobile (26.5 TFL, 10 sacks). For BC, Scroggins has touched the ball more than 600 times this season — and he has turned it over only once (that’s 27 total TDs, one pick, and zero fumbles).

Buckle up for a great game!