As promised, here is the "tale of the tape" for the NCAA first round playoff game between Bridgewater and Delaware Valley...
Bridgewater | | | RANKINGS | | | Delaware Valley |
| | | | |
#21 | | | D3football.com Top 25 | | | #9 |
#20 | | | AFCA Top 25 | | | #9 |
#3 South | | | NCAA Regional | | | #3 East |
#98 (0.514) | | | SOS | | | #80 (0.520) |
| | | | |
| | OFFENSE | | |
39.2 | | | Points Per Game | | | 37.2 |
413.3 | | | Total Yards Per Game | | | 394.8 |
6.2 | | | Total Yards Per Attempt | | | 6.1 |
241.2 | | | Passing Yards Per Game | | | 241.9 |
8.3 | | | Passing Yards Per Attempt | | | 8.8 |
172.1 | | | Rushing Yards Per Game | | | 152.9 |
4.6 | | | Rushing Yards Per Attempt | | | 4.1 |
30:58 | | | Time of Possession Per Game | | | 30:59 |
| | | | |
| | DEFENSE | | |
11.7 | | | Points Per Game | | | 10.3 |
272.1 | | | Total Yards Per Game | | | 182.5 |
4.0 | | | Total Yards Per Attempt | | | 3.0 |
167.8 | | | Passing Yards Per Game | | | 136.6 |
5.2 | | | Passing Yards Per Attempt | | | 4.5 |
104.2 | | | Rushing Yards Per Game | | | 45.9 |
2.9 | | | Rushing Yards Per Attempt | | | 1.5 |
3.2 | | | Sacks Per Game | | | 3.9 |
+11 | | | Turnover Margin | | | +4 |
A couple of (obvious) statistical observations:
* DVU has more National respect
* DVU had a tougher strength of schedule (MAC considered stronger top to bottom than ODAC)
* A virtual coin flip on the offensive side of the ball
* DVU is much stronger on defense -- allowing only 1.5 yards per rush is insane (39 total sacks helps)
* BC has the edge in turnovers allowed (7 to 18), but DVU has forced more turnovers (22 to 18)
If you dive deeper into the turnover margin numbers -- something jumps out (at least to me, it does). Delaware Valley's achilles heel seems to be coughing up the ball (27 fumbles/INTs -- 18 fumbles lost/INTs). One of Bridgewater's strengths is forcing turnovers (24 FF/INTs -- 18 FR/INTs). With a potentially cold and rainy day this Saturday (current forecast at kickoff is 39, overcast) -- turnovers may play a big part. The Eagles have a slight advantage with having played more games this year in 30/40 degree weather. Looks like the Aggies have only had one game in that type of weather (a close 28-21 win over a 5-5 Widener team to end the regular season).
Albeit early season games, here is a statistical comparison of when both Bridgewater and Delaware Valley played Stevenson (2nd place MAC team)...
Bridgewater | | | OFFENSE | | | Delaware Valley |
37 | | | Points | | | 28 |
423 | | | Total Yards Gained | | | 304 |
6.3 | | | Total Yards Per Attempt | | | 6.6 |
217 | | | Passing Yards Gained | | | 239 |
8.3 | | | Passing Yards Per Attempt | | | 11.4 |
206 | | | Rushing Yards Gained | | | 65 |
5.0 | | | Rushing Yards Per Attempt | | | 2.6 |
29:11 | | | Time of Possession | | | 21:58 |
| | | | |
| | DEFENSE | | |
22 | | | Points Allowed | | | 21 |
326 | | | Total Yards Allowed | | | 249 |
4.7 | | | Total Yards Per Attempt | | | 3.5 |
269 | | | Passing Yards Allowed | | | 216 |
7.3 | | | Passing Yards Per Attempt | | | 6.5 |
57 | | | Rushing Yards Allowed | | | 33 |
1.7 | | | Rushing Yards Per Attempt | | | 0.8 |
7 | | | Sacks | | | 8 |
+1 | | | Turnover Margin | | | -1 |
On one hand, you could take Delaware Valley's balanced offensive attack and dominant defensive performance this season and say it will be a 24-10 Aggie win this Saturday. On the other hand, you could take the turnover margin, consistent rushing attack, potential weather, and home field advantage -- and say Bridgewater will pull out a tight one, 19-17.
Because I need to take my Bridgewater fan hat off, and sleep on these stats for a couple of days -- I will reserve my "official" prognostication until later this week.

What say you?!