Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[hasanova]

Congratulations and good luck to Coach Yoder at Shenandoah.  I look forward to his visit with the Hornets to Guilford next fall.  Welcome to the ODAC!

[tigerfanalso]

Ok, what does the ODAC need to do to have it's champion win a playoff game in 2013 ?

1) finish the season 10-0 and get a home game ?
2) recruit better on the defensive side of the ball ?
3) become more balanced on the offensive side of the ball ?
4) change defensive schemes ?
5) all of the above ?

[jknezek]

Ok, what does the ODAC need to do to have it's champion win a playoff game in 2013 ?

1) finish the season 10-0 and get a home game ?
2) recruit better on the defensive side of the ball ?
3) become more balanced on the offensive side of the ball ?
4) change defensive schemes ?
5) all of the above ?

Go at least 9-1, preferably 10-0. W&L could have beat some of the teams in the field this year, but they didn't earn, or deserve, a seed high enough to face those teams instead of Hobart mainly due to the inexcusable Bridgewater loss. It's not that the ODAC champion can't compete with teams 16-32 in many circumstances, it's that they haven't earned the right to face those teams. Only H-SC hosted a home game lately, and that team went 9-1 losing to W&L late in the year. I believe that was a 4-5 game, and H-SC lost a squeaker to the NJAC runner-up.

Basically, the ODAC champion needs to stop losing to beatable teams and the non-conf schedule has to be at least respectable. Earn a home seed, have a shot at a win. Go on the road and you are most likely going somewhere unfortunate. The ODAC hasn't produced a top 10 national team since Bridgewater's run. So there isn't really any momentum to give the conference champion any kind of benefit of the doubt, and in all honesty, there shouldn't be right now. That means with 2 losses you aren't going to be the 5 seed on the road, you are going to be 7 or 8...

[tigerfanalso]

jk

all good points but the more I look at this I think style of play needs to change and improve; offenses need to be more balanced run vs. pass and the defenses in the ODAC seem to be average at best most of the time. W&L runs the option as well as anybody but that is only going to take you but so far in the playoffs; pass happy teams are fun to watch but not going to beat a good team if you can't run the ball effectively as well.

much easier said than done. 

[jknezek]

jk

all good points but the more I look at this I think style of play needs to change and improve; offenses need to be more balanced run vs. pass and the defenses in the ODAC seem to be average at best most of the time. W&L runs the option as well as anybody but that is only going to take you but so far in the playoffs; pass happy teams are fun to watch but not going to beat a good team if you can't run the ball effectively as well.

much easier said than done.

Not sure that is necessary to win a playoff game, which was your original question. There are plenty of teams that make the playoffs that the ODAC champion will be competitive with or better than. The key is getting a high enough seed to face those opponents rather than the top of the brackets. If you are talking about making a deep run in the playoffs, balanced teams with strong defenses are a good starting point, but I view winning a first round game, and reaching the final 8, as two different enterprises.

There is no reason W&L wouldn't have competed with any of the 5 through 8 seeds in any bracket this year. W&L may not have beat all of those teams, though I do think they were the best of the 7 seeds (just a guess given limited data points) this year. That means they were better than 1/4 of the field. The problem W&L had was they weren't a 2 facing a 7, they were a 7 facing a 2. To flip that equation, W&L needed to beat Bridgewater, which was just a very bad loss, and not allow Gettysburg to score on the last drive of the first game of the season.  Winning either of those games pushes W&L up 1 or 2 seeds most likely, winning both and going undefeated would have all but ensured a fairly easy first round game as maybe a 2 or more likely a 3 seed (UMHB and Wesley are going to be out front in a "regional" bracket, some other historical power in a less "regional" bracket).

You just have to win. In any given year, there generally aren't enough undefeated teams to push a 10-0 team past a 3 seed. 9-1 probably gives the ODAC a 3-6 seed depending on SoS and other results. Either of these outcomes and I give the ODAC a better than even money winning in the first round. Going 8-2 and the ODAC is a 6-8, and only a small chance of improving.

Given the only team consistently scheduling a power OOC game is HSC, there is no reason the ODAC champion can't go at least 9-1. They simply haven't been able to do it and have paid the price when seedings come around.

[tigerfanalso]

jk

Good points and you're correct, winning a playoff game was/is my point.

HSC could have/should have beaten Montclair St at home and Centre on the road the following year. That Centre game was as easy as its going to get for a road playoff game. Unfortunate the wind decided to blow 30 mph that day and made the passing game difficult AND the defense did not show up, for the most part.

JH has had success in the playoffs in recent history and I firmly believe if they can do it, the ODAC champ can as well.
 

[HSCTiger74]

jk

Good points and you're correct, winning a playoff game was/is my point.

HSC could have/should have beaten Montclair St at home and Centre on the road the following year. That Centre game was as easy as its going to get for a road playoff game. Unfortunate the wind decided to blow 30 mph that day and made the passing game difficult AND the defense did not show up, for the most part.JH has had success in the playoffs in recent history and I firmly believe if they can do it, the ODAC champ can as well.

Something that I have been carping about for several years. It's all well and good to have an extremely prolific offense, but that can be short-circuited by a really good opponent or any sort of odd weather. Not playing consistently tough defense won't get you anywhere, especially once the playoffs start.

[tigerfanalso]

HSCTiger74

Agreed. The HSC defense was pretty good in most games, laid an egg against CU and RMC. Allowed W&L 27 points in regulation but gave up way too many rushing yards, but if you would have told me we hold them to 27 points I would have told you HSC wins. I do agree, the defense needs to improve to take it to another level. Get back to the standards set by the 2009 defense. Play the way Lou Wacker had them playing back in the day !!!

[jknezek]

W&L's schedule posted for 2013.

http://www.generalssports.com/sports/fball/2013-14/schedule

Looks the same as last year with the venues switched. F&M (home, W&L trails series at 6-7), Centre (away, W&L trails series 23-36-2), and a consistently improving Sewanee (home, W&L leads series 39-22 including 8 in a row and going 17-3 in the last 20 years) are the traditional non-conf games. This is the easier non-conf schedule, but it's paired with the harder conf schedule where the Generals travel to E&H, R-MC, H-SC and now Shenandoah.

I see Guilford and Bridgewater continuing to improve this year, although both have to go to Lex which has turned into a daunting proposition (W&L have won their last 14 home games dating back to 9/25/10). I see little change to E&H, Catholic and Shenandoah (first year coach starting with not much at all), and the tough road games at R-MC and H-SC. W&L has gone 7-3 versus R-MC in the last decade, but all 3 losses came on the road. W&L is 4-6 against H-SC over the same period, 1-4 on the road.

Two big questions surrounding W&L is how will the Generals replace the three senior running backs and outstanding safety Jake Pelton. Still, I feel slightly better going into next year than I did coming into 2012 when the Generals were replacing much of the o-line, a 4 year starter at qb, and with a first year head coach.

All stats and series history courtesy of W&L's sports information website.

[tigerfanalso]

Jk

I see W&L, RMC, HSC & BC (in no particular order) fighting it out for the conference crown next year. I don't think SU, CU, GC or E&H really having a chance other than maybe pulling an upset against the four teams I see as favorites.

I think your gennies will be pretty damn good until the ODAC figures out how to defense that option (don't understand why that is taking so long). I think the last two weeks will define HSC's season with the outcome of those deciding the ODAC winner.

HSC out of conference schedule is easier next year. Huntingdon out, Averett, CNU & Coast Guard in. Don't know anything about CG but I figure they are not as good as HC.

[jknezek]

Jk

I see W&L, RMC, HSC & BC (in no particular order) fighting it out for the conference crown next year. I don't think SU, CU, GC or E&H really having a chance other than maybe pulling an upset against the four teams I see as favorites.

I think your gennies will be pretty damn good until the ODAC figures out how to defense that option (don't understand why that is taking so long). I think the last two weeks will define HSC's season with the outcome of those deciding the ODAC winner.

HSC out of conference schedule is easier next year. Huntingdon out, Averett, CNU & Coast Guard in. Don't know anything about CG but I figure they are not as good as HC.

You might be underestimating GC a bit. If they improve half as much in the 12-13 calendar gap as they did in the 11-12 gap, they will be in the mix. The Generals need to show that the option can continue to work at a top tier without Heinsohn, Murray and Vandalov. The first two, especially, were just a deadly combination of down the middle power and outside speed. The backs behind them got good time the last two seasons as W&L had plenty of "garbage time" to blood younger players. My impression, so far, is that there are some options as fast and shifty as Murray, but no one with the power Heinsohn had. There will need to be an up the gut threat and I'm wondering if the big tight end, Alex Evans, who is exceptionally good but mostly wasted since W&L doesn't throw, can be converted to that role.

I'm worried about the ODAC this year. To my early eye, this has all the hallmarks of one of those years where they eat their own in conference and the winner is a 3 or 4 loss team, something like 5-2 conf, 2-1 non conf. HSC should have no problems with CG or Averett. CNU will be interesting as always. The Captains seem like they can get up for Salisbury and Wesley, even if they don't get over the hump, but then drop a few winnable games later on. To be honest, HSC's OOC is uninspiring this year. Maybe the weakest of W&L, R-MC, H-SC grouping.

R-MC has Hopkins at home. That might be the only chance for the ENTIRE CONFERENCE to get on OOC signature win. Centre or F&M could be good (W&L), CNU (HSC) could be good, Hopkins (RMC) probably will be good. Shenandoah has Ferrum, Gallaudette, and CNU, but I don't think that will matter come the end of the season. Haven't seen Catholic, E&H, Guilford, or Bridgewater post a schedule yet, but none of those last three have recently scheduled particularly strong OOC games. Catholic had CMU last year, I don't know if there is a return game scheduled but CMU stands a chance of being the same tier as CNU, Centre, or F&M.

Overall, this will be a very competitive ODAC season, again, with half the conference capable of winning the title but none of those teams probably packing signature wins. Not necessarily a good thing come playoff time...

[hasanova]

Speaking of Guilford's potential 2013 schedule, there has been very little imagination there the past few years ... and probably most of that has to do with travel costs.  Besides the seven ODAC games, there are two games that seem to be locks:  Greensboro and Methodist.  The Quakers have played those two every year since they started football.  The third OOC game still figures to be Averett ... GC's played them about 7 or 8 years in a row and AU's only 50 miles up Hwy 29.

[tigerfanalso]

JK

I may well be under estimating GC, basing my thoughts on what saw last year when they came to HSC. HSC could have scored 80 points if they wanted to. Maybe GC had an off day, don't know because that is the only game I saw them play.
That said, I don't see them in the mix for the ODAC however, they could pull an upset over the top four teams that could help decide the winner.

If your concerns about the ODAC materialize (winner having 3 or 4 losses) I guess the ODAC champ will show up in Alliance
for round one. I think we all know that outcome !!!!

[jknezek]

JK

I may well be under estimating GC, basing my thoughts on what saw last year when they came to HSC. HSC could have scored 80 points if they wanted to. Maybe GC had an off day, don't know because that is the only game I saw them play.
That said, I don't see them in the mix for the ODAC however, they could pull an upset over the top four teams that could help decide the winner.

GC is probably still a year or two away, but they were extremely young and played very well at times last season. Other times they looked like the bottom of the conference team they've been recently. If they can get the consistency up, and I think that will occur as the "young" goes away, they could work into the mix. They were not particularly good against W&L either, really struggling on offense until W&L sent out mixed strings. But what I saw at that point, from basically a mix of frosh and sophs, was good enough for me to see potential.

Last year GC, Bridgewater and HSC all went 4-3 in conference. R-MC went 5-2, losing to Guilford. Granted W&L went 6-1, losing to Bridgewater, but if 5-2 wins the conference in 2013, there is no reason Guilford can't improve by 1 game. Of course, as tight as the conference is, I can see them reverting to 2-5 also. The ODAC is going to be very balanced again, making for good games every week.

All that being said, it's barely February and football season is a long way away. And speculation isn't worth the time I took to type this message. It does help pass the time however...

[hasanova]

I see Guilford on the upswing as well, having won 5 games last year with a freshman QB.  I really believe the potential is there for a win (or 2) improvement again this season.  HSC has been GC's nemesis, however, and we just seem to play our worst against them.  I haven't researched it fully, but I don't think the Quakers haven't beaten the Tigers since 1999.  As someone noted, however, if you play close games, 2-5 may be just as likely as 5-2.