East Region Playoff Discussion

[PBR...]

We've got Regional Rankings... Final time for the season that we'll see them:

http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/10/ncaas-third-regional-rankings/

What did they read our b!tching about Mount Union being 3rd in the North last week?  North Central wins handily over Wheaton and Mount Union jumps them?  Interesting...  Looks like the chess pieces are now in place!

exactly...the ncaa has ZERO credibility in my book anymore. The more this evolves every year the more it appears that its a 3 card monte game.... Rankings mean very little w/ the ncaa and during the last week we toss all the cards up in the air and arrange the way we want and tie it up in a nice little bow...Used to think we had a true national champion in d3 football, not so anymore. As well as why play regular season games when in reality they mean very little as the selection committee selects/puts teams where they want not on merit.  *** This is PBR taking over the negative thoughts for not so negative LD... ***

[PBR...]

We've got Regional Rankings... Final time for the season that we'll see them:

http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/10/ncaas-third-regional-rankings/

btw pat your time stamps/clock is off on the regional rankings page...looks like you guys forgot to turn the clocks back...

[Frank Rossi]

Updated with Quality Wins & Quality Losses:

South
--------
Hampden-Sydney (8-1, 0.524 -- 0.523/0.527) -- vs. Randolph-Macon (7-2, 0.446) -- QW: 8S, QL: 6S
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, 0.502 -- 0.492/0.523) -- at Louisiana Col. (6-3 (6-2 Reg.), 0.456) -- QL: 2S
** Washington U. (7-2 (4-1 Reg.), 0.442 -- 0.412/0.503) -- at Chicago (7-2, 0.530) -- QW: 10N, QL: 5N

North
-------
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, 0.604 -- 0.614/0.583) -- at Millikin (4-5, 0.581) -- QW: 8N, QL: 2N
Ohio Northern (8-1 (7-1 Reg.), 0.512 -- 0.508/0.521) -- vs. Heidelberg (5-4, 0.456) -- QW: 9N, QL: 1N
* Wittenberg (9-0, 0.416 -- 0.365/0.517) -- at Wooster (5-4 (5-3 Reg.), 0.441) -- QW: 10N
* Trine (9-0 (8-0 Reg.), 0.379 -- 0.311/0.515) -- vs. Albion (5-4 (5-2 Reg.), 0.446) -- No QW/QL
** Wabash (7-2 (7-1 Reg.), 0.525 -- 0.552/0.472) -- vs. DePauw (9-0, 0.522) -- QL: 5N

East
------
Montclair St. (8-1, 0.500 -- 0.493/0.515) -- at Wm. Paterson (4-5, 0.394) -- QW: 2E, QL: 4E
* Rowan (8-1, 0.497 -- 0.486/0.518) -- at New Jersey (5-4, 0.408) -- QW: 4E, QL: 3E
* Cortland (8-1, 0.491 -- 0.486/0.501) -- vs. Ithaca (6-3, 0.588) -- QW: 3E, QL: 2E

West
-------
Coe (8-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.543 -- 0.571/0.488) -- at Cornell (0-9, 0.535) -- QW: 10W, QL: 3W
Bethel (8-1, 0.513 -- 0.493/0.552) -- vs. Augsburg (4-5, 0.479) -- QL: 1W
Redlands (7-1, 0.503 -- 0.481/0.547) -- vs. Chapman (4-4 (4-2 Reg.), 0.462) -- QL: 4W
Pac. Luth. (7-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.463 -- 0.438/0.514) -- vs. Willamette (7-2 (5-2 Reg.), 0.511) -- QW: 4W, QL 7W

* - Team May Still Win Its Conference's Pool A Bid
** - Team Included Since In-Reg. Record Includes Just One Loss

After Win/Loss Records are NCAA SoS -- OWP/OOWP -- Final Opponent (W/L, OWP of Final Opponent) -- Quality Wins (QW) (with ranking and region of the team), Quality Losses (QL).  If Regional Record for team or opponent differs, a second W/L record is in inner parentheses, indicated with "Reg."

[HScoach]

We've got Regional Rankings... Final time for the season that we'll see them:

http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/10/ncaas-third-regional-rankings/

What did they read our b!tching about Mount Union being 3rd in the North last week?  North Central wins handily over Wheaton and Mount Union jumps them?  Interesting...  Looks like the chess pieces are now in place!

exactly...the ncaa has ZERO credibility in my book anymore. The more this evolves every year the more it appears that its a 3 card monte game.... Rankings mean very little w/ the ncaa and during the last week we toss all the cards up in the air and arrange the way we want and tie it up in a nice little bow...Used to think we had a true national champion in d3 football, not so anymore. As well as why play regular season games when in reality they mean very little as the selection committee selects/puts teams where they want not on merit.  *** This is PBR taking over the negative thoughts for not so negative LD... ***

I don't agree with the NCAA's rankings either, but the "no true champion" thing is a little in left field.  The question we're arguing about is ultimately where the games are played, not which 2 teams get to play for a mythical title.  It's too bad D1 doesn't have a playoff like D3 does with AQ's and at-large bids.   While our system is not perfect and some teams get screwed by playing on the road or a good 2nd place team might get screwed out of a Pool C bid for a lesser team with better numbers, but at least the teams get to decide it on the field.

[rams1102]

All this stuff is nutty. The Regional Rankings are what they are. OWP, OOWP. By looking at that, Montclair should be #2, but the final story will start to unfold on Saturday night. There will be (3) NJAC teams most likley tied and someone will screwed. MU by some miracle is now #1 in the North. It appears the NCAA is playing their 3 card monty game to get MU in the east and UWW in the North. I could be wrong but we will see. HScoach says it best, the D3 playoff system gives you a true National Champ. I would like to get rid of all the politics, but I really love D3 Football.

[PBR...]

We've got Regional Rankings... Final time for the season that we'll see them:

http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/10/ncaas-third-regional-rankings/

What did they read our b!tching about Mount Union being 3rd in the North last week?  North Central wins handily over Wheaton and Mount Union jumps them?  Interesting...  Looks like the chess pieces are now in place!

exactly...the ncaa has ZERO credibility in my book anymore. The more this evolves every year the more it appears that its a 3 card monte game.... Rankings mean very little w/ the ncaa and during the last week we toss all the cards up in the air and arrange the way we want and tie it up in a nice little bow...Used to think we had a true national champion in d3 football, not so anymore. As well as why play regular season games when in reality they mean very little as the selection committee selects/puts teams where they want not on merit.  *** This is PBR taking over the negative thoughts for not so negative LD... ***

I don't agree with the NCAA's rankings either, but the "no true champion" thing is a little in left field.  The question we're arguing about is ultimately where the games are played, not which 2 teams get to play for a mythical title.  It's too bad D1 doesn't have a playoff like D3 does with AQ's and at-large bids.   While our system is not perfect and some teams get screwed by playing on the road or a good 2nd place team might get screwed out of a Pool C bid for a lesser team with better numbers, but at least the teams get to decide it on the field.

OR some teams get completely screwed out of playing for the national championship that should be in the tournament....thus my point of not having the best teams play in the tournament and a mythical champion....

[Mr. Ypsi]

We've got Regional Rankings... Final time for the season that we'll see them:

http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/10/ncaas-third-regional-rankings/

What did they read our b!tching about Mount Union being 3rd in the North last week?  North Central wins handily over Wheaton and Mount Union jumps them?  Interesting...  Looks like the chess pieces are now in place!

exactly...the ncaa has ZERO credibility in my book anymore. The more this evolves every year the more it appears that its a 3 card monte game.... Rankings mean very little w/ the ncaa and during the last week we toss all the cards up in the air and arrange the way we want and tie it up in a nice little bow...Used to think we had a true national champion in d3 football, not so anymore. As well as why play regular season games when in reality they mean very little as the selection committee selects/puts teams where they want not on merit.  *** This is PBR taking over the negative thoughts for not so negative LD... ***

I don't agree with the NCAA's rankings either, but the "no true champion" thing is a little in left field.  The question we're arguing about is ultimately where the games are played, not which 2 teams get to play for a mythical title.  It's too bad D1 doesn't have a playoff like D3 does with AQ's and at-large bids.   While our system is not perfect and some teams get screwed by playing on the road or a good 2nd place team might get screwed out of a Pool C bid for a lesser team with better numbers, but at least the teams get to decide it on the field.

OR some teams get completely screwed out of playing for the national championship that should be in the tournament....thus my point of not having the best teams play in the tournament and a mythical champion....

With 32 teams (albeit 12-15 who stand no real chance of even making the 3rd round), I seriously doubt any team with a realistic chance of a title will ever get left out.

[wesleydad]

Mr. Ypsi, i agree.  someone will get screwed because there are some deserving teams that wont get in, but would they have realistically had a chance to win it all.  probably not.  still it has been a good discussion to follow, with some very good points. 

[PBR...]

We've got Regional Rankings... Final time for the season that we'll see them:

http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/10/ncaas-third-regional-rankings/

What did they read our b!tching about Mount Union being 3rd in the North last week?  North Central wins handily over Wheaton and Mount Union jumps them?  Interesting...  Looks like the chess pieces are now in place!

exactly...the ncaa has ZERO credibility in my book anymore. The more this evolves every year the more it appears that its a 3 card monte game.... Rankings mean very little w/ the ncaa and during the last week we toss all the cards up in the air and arrange the way we want and tie it up in a nice little bow...Used to think we had a true national champion in d3 football, not so anymore. As well as why play regular season games when in reality they mean very little as the selection committee selects/puts teams where they want not on merit.  *** This is PBR taking over the negative thoughts for not so negative LD... ***

I don't agree with the NCAA's rankings either, but the "no true champion" thing is a little in left field.  The question we're arguing about is ultimately where the games are played, not which 2 teams get to play for a mythical title.  It's too bad D1 doesn't have a playoff like D3 does with AQ's and at-large bids.   While our system is not perfect and some teams get screwed by playing on the road or a good 2nd place team might get screwed out of a Pool C bid for a lesser team with better numbers, but at least the teams get to decide it on the field.

OR some teams get completely screwed out of playing for the national championship that should be in the tournament....thus my point of not having the best teams play in the tournament and a mythical champion....

With 32 teams (albeit 12-15 who stand no real chance of even making the 3rd round), I seriously doubt any team with a realistic chance of a title will ever get left out.

plenty of examples that say otherwise...seems in your view we should just cut it down to a 16 team field and save everyone the time/money and just play those teams? how about we cancel the regular season, since it doesnt seem to mean anything in the selection committee's eyes. 1 lower ranked team cannot get hot and make a run? njac most likely has a team that could make a run in the playoffs no? my point is d3 national champion is going the way of the ncaa d1 national champion....who knows maybe that is what the ncaa wants in reality....such is life

[Mr. Ypsi]

wesleydad,

And don't get me wrong, there may even be teams left out that could have made a run (just two years ago, Wheaton unexpectedly 'snuck in' as almost certainly the last pool C, then won the 'north' from the 8 seed!), but I just can't see a realistic Salem team not getting in.

[pg04]

Plenty of examples?  I'm not too sure about that.  I'd like to see how you think has been left out and could have won the D3 national championship

[Mr. Ypsi]

PBR,

A bit over the top, are we?!

I said I doubted a realistic title contender will ever be left out BECAUSE it is a 32-team tourney, so, no, I'm not advocating returning to 16 teams.

And I already provided an example of a team that almost got left out, yet made the semi-finals.

But I'd sure like to hear a list of the 'plenty of examples' of teams who didn't make the tourney who had any realistic chance at the Stagg.

[The only one I can think of who MIGHT have had a chance (IF everyone healed in time) was NCC last year.  A season opening loss to ONU, combined with a loss to my IWU team when decimated with injuries (even I think they would have won by 3 TDs if healthy) cost them a bid.  But UWW was brought 'north' last year, so they still would have had to win in Whitewater to reach the 3rd or 4th round.]

[Frank Rossi]

Predicted SoS, Quality Wins & Quality Losses for Pool C candidates (these are the criteria that matter in the NCAA's decisions for ordering of Pool C candidates and selection of one of the four teams on the board, one from each region):

South
--------
Hampden-Sydney (8-1, 0.524) -- Predicted SoS: 0.539 (0.549/0.519) -- QW: 8S, QL: 6S
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, 0.502) -- Predicted SoS: 0.517 (0.518/0.516) -- QL: 2S
** Washington U. (7-2 (4-1 Reg.), 0.442) -- Predicted SoS: 0.484 (0.473/0.507) -- QW: 10N, QL: 5N

North
-------
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, 0.604) -- Predicted SoS: 0.592 (0.597/0.583) -- QW: 8N, QL: 2N
Ohio Northern (8-1 (7-1 Reg.), 0.512) -- Predicted SoS: 0.513 (0.513/0.513) -- QW: 9N, QL: 1N
* Wittenberg (9-0, 0.416) -- Predicted SoS: 0.430 (0.391/0.509) -- QW: 10N
* Trine (9-0 (8-0 Reg.), 0.379) -- Predicted SoS: 0.406 (0.356/0.507) -- No QW/QL
** Wabash (7-2 (7-1 Reg.), 0.525) -- Predicted SoS: 0.561 (0.602/0.478) -- QL: 5N

East
------
* Cortland (8-1, 0.491) -- Predicted SoS: 0.506 (0.504/0.510) -- QW: 3E, QL: 2E
* Rowan (8-1, 0.497) -- Predicted SoS: 0.498 (0.493/0.507) -- QW: 4E, QL: 3E
Montclair St. (8-1, 0.500) -- Predicted SoS: 0.493 (0.488/0.503) -- QW: 2E, QL: 4E

West
-------
Redlands (7-1, 0.503) -- Predicted SoS: 0.514 (0.502/0.538) -- QL: 4W
Bethel (8-1, 0.513) -- Predicted SoS: 0.507 (0.488/0.545) -- QL: 1W
Coe (8-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.543) -- Predicted SoS: 0.498 (0.500/0.494) -- QW: 10W, QL: 3W
Pac. Luth. (7-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.463) -- Predicted SoS: 0.487 (0.473/0.514) -- QW: 4W, QL 7W

* - Team May Still Win Its Conference's Pool A Bid
** - Team Included Since In-Reg. Record Includes Just One Loss (Note that other two-loss teams may be ahead of these teams in the Regional Rankings)

After Win/Loss Records are NCAA SoS -- Predicted SoS (Predicted OWP/Predicted OOWP) -- Quality Wins (QW) (with ranking and region of the team), Quality Losses (QL).  If Regional Record for team or opponent differs, a second W/L record is in inner parentheses, indicated with "Reg."

NOTE: These numbers should be used carefully, as wins and losses by opponents already played will cause SoS figures to change, sometimes by as much as 0.040 this late in the season.  These numbers are merely estimates and take into account only games played to this date and the remaining opponents' W/L % and OWP figures.

[K-Mack]

Frank,
 I would like to steal this for ATN, because it's basically the exact thing I would have done, except you have typed it all out already. lol.

 Point me toward your NJAC analysis please, I want to know how you got what you got. Not that I can't figure it out, I just haven't thought much about that one since recording the podcast on Sunday. So I forget what I think, but I wrote it down!

Updated with Quality Wins & Quality Losses:

South
--------
Hampden-Sydney (8-1, 0.524 -- 0.523/0.527) -- vs. Randolph-Macon (7-2, 0.446) -- QW: 8S, QL: 6S
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, 0.502 -- 0.492/0.523) -- at Louisiana Col. (6-3 (6-2 Reg.), 0.456) -- QL: 2S
** Washington U. (7-2 (4-1 Reg.), 0.442 -- 0.412/0.503) -- at Chicago (7-2, 0.530) -- QW: 10N, QL: 5N

North
-------
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, 0.604 -- 0.614/0.583) -- at Millikin (4-5, 0.581) -- QW: 8N, QL: 2N
Ohio Northern (8-1 (7-1 Reg.), 0.512 -- 0.508/0.521) -- vs. Heidelberg (5-4, 0.456) -- QW: 9N, QL: 1N
* Wittenberg (9-0, 0.416 -- 0.365/0.517) -- at Wooster (5-4 (5-3 Reg.), 0.441) -- QW: 10N
* Trine (9-0 (8-0 Reg.), 0.379 -- 0.311/0.515) -- vs. Albion (5-4 (5-2 Reg.), 0.446) -- No QW/QL
** Wabash (7-2 (7-1 Reg.), 0.525 -- 0.552/0.472) -- vs. DePauw (9-0, 0.522) -- QL: 5N

East
------
Montclair St. (8-1, 0.500 -- 0.493/0.515) -- at Wm. Paterson (4-5, 0.394) -- QW: 2E, QL: 4E
* Rowan (8-1, 0.497 -- 0.486/0.518) -- at New Jersey (5-4, 0.408) -- QW: 4E, QL: 3E
* Cortland (8-1, 0.491 -- 0.486/0.501) -- vs. Ithaca (6-3, 0.588) -- QW: 3E, QL: 2E

West
-------
Coe (8-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.543 -- 0.571/0.488) -- at Cornell (0-9, 0.535) -- QW: 10W, QL: 3W
Bethel (8-1, 0.513 -- 0.493/0.552) -- vs. Augsburg (4-5, 0.479) -- QL: 1W
Redlands (7-1, 0.503 -- 0.481/0.547) -- vs. Chapman (4-4 (4-2 Reg.), 0.462) -- QL: 4W
Pac. Luth. (7-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.463 -- 0.438/0.514) -- vs. Willamette (7-2 (5-2 Reg.), 0.511) -- QW: 4W, QL 7W

* - Team May Still Win Its Conference's Pool A Bid
** - Team Included Since In-Reg. Record Includes Just One Loss

After Win/Loss Records are NCAA SoS -- OWP/OOWP -- Final Opponent (W/L, OWP of Final Opponent) -- Quality Wins (QW) (with ranking and region of the team), Quality Losses (QL).  If Regional Record for team or opponent differs, a second W/L record is in inner parentheses, indicated with "Reg."

[Frank Rossi]

Frank,
 I would like to steal this for ATN, because it's basically the exact thing I would have done, except you have typed it all out already. lol.

 Point me toward your NJAC analysis please, I want to know how you got what you got. Not that I can't figure it out, I just haven't thought much about that one since recording the podcast on Sunday. So I forget what I think, but I wrote it down!

Updated with Quality Wins & Quality Losses:

South
--------
Hampden-Sydney (8-1, 0.524 -- 0.523/0.527) -- vs. Randolph-Macon (7-2, 0.446) -- QW: 8S, QL: 6S
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, 0.502 -- 0.492/0.523) -- at Louisiana Col. (6-3 (6-2 Reg.), 0.456) -- QL: 2S
** Washington U. (7-2 (4-1 Reg.), 0.442 -- 0.412/0.503) -- at Chicago (7-2, 0.530) -- QW: 10N, QL: 5N

North
-------
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, 0.604 -- 0.614/0.583) -- at Millikin (4-5, 0.581) -- QW: 8N, QL: 2N
Ohio Northern (8-1 (7-1 Reg.), 0.512 -- 0.508/0.521) -- vs. Heidelberg (5-4, 0.456) -- QW: 9N, QL: 1N
* Wittenberg (9-0, 0.416 -- 0.365/0.517) -- at Wooster (5-4 (5-3 Reg.), 0.441) -- QW: 10N
* Trine (9-0 (8-0 Reg.), 0.379 -- 0.311/0.515) -- vs. Albion (5-4 (5-2 Reg.), 0.446) -- No QW/QL
** Wabash (7-2 (7-1 Reg.), 0.525 -- 0.552/0.472) -- vs. DePauw (9-0, 0.522) -- QL: 5N

East
------
Montclair St. (8-1, 0.500 -- 0.493/0.515) -- at Wm. Paterson (4-5, 0.394) -- QW: 2E, QL: 4E
* Rowan (8-1, 0.497 -- 0.486/0.518) -- at New Jersey (5-4, 0.408) -- QW: 4E, QL: 3E
* Cortland (8-1, 0.491 -- 0.486/0.501) -- vs. Ithaca (6-3, 0.588) -- QW: 3E, QL: 2E

West
-------
Coe (8-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.543 -- 0.571/0.488) -- at Cornell (0-9, 0.535) -- QW: 10W, QL: 3W
Bethel (8-1, 0.513 -- 0.493/0.552) -- vs. Augsburg (4-5, 0.479) -- QL: 1W
Redlands (7-1, 0.503 -- 0.481/0.547) -- vs. Chapman (4-4 (4-2 Reg.), 0.462) -- QL: 4W
Pac. Luth. (7-1 (6-1 Reg.), 0.463 -- 0.438/0.514) -- vs. Willamette (7-2 (5-2 Reg.), 0.511) -- QW: 4W, QL 7W

* - Team May Still Win Its Conference's Pool A Bid
** - Team Included Since In-Reg. Record Includes Just One Loss

After Win/Loss Records are NCAA SoS -- OWP/OOWP -- Final Opponent (W/L, OWP of Final Opponent) -- Quality Wins (QW) (with ranking and region of the team), Quality Losses (QL).  If Regional Record for team or opponent differs, a second W/L record is in inner parentheses, indicated with "Reg."

My NJAC analysis, proving why Cortland wins the OOWP, is in the NJAC PP from Saturday night.  You can't miss it.  (Note:  You might wanna dump the ** teams since some two-loss teams are already being placed ahead in the Reg. Rankings of these teams)