Author Topic: East Region Playoff Discussion  (Read 298630 times)

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3675 on: November 20, 2012, 03:01:05 pm »
Bombers, here is your chance to play in this debate.  Start shooting.

Wasn't my last post a decent shot? ;)

As I said, I think the E8 is way down this season, and other than Salisbury, no team was overly impressive this year. Would they be better in the NEFC? Of course. But no, I don't think the Utica/Ithaca/Buff State group, for example, would run away with it. I think we're locked in our own echo chamber. The E8 is good, so even when those teams lose, it's just good teams beating up each other. That's too flippant a dismissal of the NEFC, IMHO.

The ECFC on the other hand...

Maybe not 2007...but 2011 was a good year when you have two teams from the E8 making the NCAA quarterfinals.

Yeah but even then you had flawed middle of the pack teams....Springfield (32.4) and Utica (38.0) were horrid defensively. Ithaca's offense was even worse than it was this season. These teams were not running away with the NEFC in 2011

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3676 on: November 20, 2012, 03:06:05 pm »
All-time records going back more than four years are pretty much useless, unless you've got some other reason to believe the variables on both sides haven't changed. Maybe they haven't, but to toss out the 2-16 number as sort of a trump card misses the whole point.

Honestly, in my view, every team in the E8 but Salisbury had rather large issues this season.

Ithaca was inconsistent offensively and horrid in the red zone on both sides of the ball.

Utica gave up 40+ points five times this season.

Buff State played to the level of their opponents every single week. 

Alfred had no healthy players by the end of the season.

(I'll let the pages of complaints Fisher guys made about their offense all season long stand on their own merit)

I skipped FSU and the Wick, since those seem to be the teams everyone agrees would struggle already

We're a long way from 2007, where the third place E8 team could hang with Mount Union for a half. There was a ton of mediocrity in the conference, and it is not just "teams beating up on each other."

- 2-16 in the playoffs all-time

- 0-8 in the playoffs from 1999-2006

- 2-8 from 2007-2012...losing by an average of almost 19 points per game

- 0-5 in the last 4 years (2009-2012)...losing by an average of just under 20 points per game.

1999 doesn't really factor in to today's numbers...but it does show remarkable consistency that the NEFC has been completely out classed in the NCAA's in nearly every game they have played.

It's not that I think the NEFC is very good. It's that I think you're overrating the strength of these middle of the pack E8 teams, most of whom are not anything close to NCAA caliber.

You're taking the NEFC's performance in the playoffs against great teams, and using it as a basis of comparison to what, a bunch of E8 teams that weren't anywhere near as good as those NCAA teams? What does that prove?

Would I bet on the NEFC teams to win in the playoffs? Of course not. But we're not talking about what playoff-caliber teams would do in the NEFC. We're talking about Utica, Ithaca, and Buff State, none of whom have even had an active player make an NCAA game

I guess I don't really think that the stats you cite prove what you want them to.

So Cortland State beats Endicott in blowout fashion in 2010. This relates to how the 2012 Bombers/Pioneers/Bengals would fair in the NEFC how?
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 03:13:53 pm by Bombers798891 »

Offline ExTartanPlayer

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3677 on: November 20, 2012, 03:16:40 pm »
Focusing on ONLY the playoff games, Yanks, leaves out some other data that is valuable to the discussion.  You're focused strictly on the fact that NEFC champs can't beat champs from the top Eastern leagues, a point that I've already conceded.  As AUKaz said, the numbers would look bad for almost every conference if their champion was sent to the #1/2 seed in the first round every year.  There is other information, however, that tells us more about the NEFC's top teams relative to the "middle" of other Eastern conferences:

Salve Regina 17, Union 14
Bridgewater State 21, Springfield 17
Salve Regina 16, Montclair State 7
Cortland State 20, Framingham State 19
Widener 44, Bridgewater State 14

So in five 2012 games, the NEFC's top three teams combined to defeat the #2 team in the Liberty League, the #3 team in the Liberty League, the #3 or #4 team in the NJAC (Montclair beat Kean but finished half a game behind because of the canceled Kean-Rowan game), lose by one point to the NJAC champion, and get blown out by the MAC champion.  It doesn't entirely undo the stench of the last decade, but the onfield results suggest that in the most recent season - the one that seems most germane to what's likely to happen moving forward - the top of the NEFC was capable of beating middle-of-the-pack Eastern teams.  This isn't a question, it's a fact: two different NEFC teams combined for three victories over three different teams that finished in the top half of two different Eastern conferences, whatever the extenuating circumstances for said teams.  The only blowout loss on that list came at the hands of Widener, who has blown out a bunch of teams this season, and even that game was not a total whitewash (Bridgewater scored to make it 28-14 with six minutes to play).

One step down, NEFC #4 Endicott blew out ECFC "co-champ" Castleton State 66-14.  That doesn't mean anything in terms of the NEFC vs. "Top Eastern Leagues" comparison, but it does hammer home the point that the top of the NEFC is way, way, way better than the top of the ECFC and that the two shouldn't be lumped together in any vitriolic discussion of who's getting killed in the playoffs.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2012, 04:43:00 pm by ExTartanPlayer »

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3678 on: November 20, 2012, 03:19:55 pm »
Focusing on ONLY the playoff games, Yanks, leaves out some other data that is valuable to the discussion. 

This is probably the salient point to the discussion of the conferences as a whole

Offline AUKaz00

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3679 on: November 20, 2012, 03:26:29 pm »
All of this kind of works back around to the results of the ERFP whereby the top NEFC teams may crack the top 10, but rarely and only in one of the bottom slots.
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Offline pg04

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3680 on: November 20, 2012, 05:09:08 pm »
I can't believe we are back to this discussion!  ;). I'm too tired to get involved again.  :P

Offline dlip

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3681 on: November 20, 2012, 05:16:21 pm »
Honestly dlip thinks it is a good discussion, although he will sit his ass on the sidelines this time. Some very good points have been made on both sides. Although dlip still is sticking to his guns hardcore regarding the pool c bid deal, he feels he has gained some insight and perspective on this topic.

Offline ExTartanPlayer

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3682 on: November 20, 2012, 05:51:09 pm »
Honestly dlip thinks it is a good discussion, although he will sit his ass on the sidelines this time. Some very good points have been made on both sides. Although dlip still is sticking to his guns hardcore regarding the pool c bid deal, he feels he has gained some insight and perspective on this topic.

I agree with you in the Pool C discussion. I don't think there's enough evidence to show that NEFC deserves a SECOND playof entrant. I do think there is enough evidence to dismiss the argument that virtually any middling team (ie Utica) from the NJAC, LL, or E8 would SWEEP the NEFC without a fight from the aforementioned three teams.

Offline bman

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3683 on: November 20, 2012, 10:59:24 pm »
Honestly dlip thinks it is a good discussion, although he will sit his ass on the sidelines this time. Some very good points have been made on both sides. Although dlip still is sticking to his guns hardcore regarding the pool c bid deal, he feels he has gained some insight and perspective on this topic.

I agree with you in the Pool C discussion. I don't think there's enough evidence to show that NEFC deserves a SECOND playof entrant. I do think there is enough evidence to dismiss the argument that virtually any middling team (ie Utica) from the NJAC, LL, or E8 would SWEEP the NEFC without a fight from the aforementioned three teams.

I said it earlier, so I'll mention it again since it fits here...BWater was not a bad team...
Without stirring the pot much, I would go out on a limb to say they would be middle of the pack in the MAC...

I think this year they would beat:
Misericordia
Kings
FDU
maybe Stevenson
On a really good day possibly Leb Val
and lose to
Albright
Lyco
Del Val
And they already lost to WU

Would they get a pool C in the MAC...um no
This year, would Misericordia, FDU, Kings or Stevenson run the table in the NEFC...no way in hell...
But here's the thing...they got one, and played their hearts out to the final whistle, and that's all that should matter.   The players and the school's administration itself is not really the issue (would you not try to find a way to get a playoff bid?),...it's the selection process/methodology and the NCAA criteria that create scenarios where worthy teams get left out...
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Offline Yanks 99

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3684 on: November 21, 2012, 07:44:01 am »
Honestly dlip thinks it is a good discussion, although he will sit his ass on the sidelines this time. Some very good points have been made on both sides. Although dlip still is sticking to his guns hardcore regarding the pool c bid deal, he feels he has gained some insight and perspective on this topic.

I agree with you in the Pool C discussion. I don't think there's enough evidence to show that NEFC deserves a SECOND playof entrant. I do think there is enough evidence to dismiss the argument that virtually any middling team (ie Utica) from the NJAC, LL, or E8 would SWEEP the NEFC without a fight from the aforementioned three teams.

That was kind of the whole point...the Pool C argument.  But I will say this...if you don't think Utica, if they all of a sudden were part of the NEFC tomorrow, wouldn't be the overwhelming favorite to win the league, then you would be about the only one. 

And if you look back...I never brought up the NJAC, MAC, or LL.  Just the E8.  I stand by my beliefs that Salisbury through Utica would be the overwhelming favorite if they played in the NEFC.  BMAN is more familiar with the MAC...so I tend to believe what he states above.  LD and dlip could probably go into better details on the LL.  Others that follow the NJAC can speak to their mid-level teams (based on record) for this year and how they stack up.

Again...and dlip has said something to this effect previously...I wish the coaches and players of the NEFC no ill will.  I know they work extremely hard to compete on the field...for nothing more than the love of the game, like everyone else.  I just don't like what the ECFC and now the MASCAC (who is almost exclusively made up of NEFC schools) did to get another AQ...plain and simple.  LD said something a few posts back...if they are willing to give an undeserving NEFC school a Pool C now, it is only a matter of time before all three of these leagues get solid looks for Pool C bids, as the NCAA committee has proven itself to be lazy in many instances when it comes to regional ranking and Pool C choices (not always...as Fisher's Pool C selection last year showed some balls, and it was the right call).  At some point though, you are going to have 3 different teams from the NEFC, ECFC, and the MASCAC all finishing with 9-1 type records at the same time where none of them won their conference champion, and none of them playing a difficult non-conference schedule (staying in-house against NEFC, ECFC, and MASCAC schools).  Some lazy NCAA regional ranking system will probably have 5 or 6 of these teams (the 3 conference champs and the 3 one loss teams) in their top 10, while other stronger conferences beat the hell out of each other all while playing a difficult non-conference schedule.  I just don't think it's right.

Understand...I am not necessarily arguing that a 2nd place or 3rd place team from the E8, LL, NJAC, or MAC deserved to get a Pool C nod this year.  But there were several teams throughout the nation that absolutely deserved it more than Bridgewater State did. 
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Offline AUKaz00

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3685 on: November 21, 2012, 08:46:00 am »
Honestly dlip thinks it is a good discussion, although he will sit his ass on the sidelines this time. Some very good points have been made on both sides. Although dlip still is sticking to his guns hardcore regarding the pool c bid deal, he feels he has gained some insight and perspective on this topic.

I agree with you in the Pool C discussion. I don't think there's enough evidence to show that NEFC deserves a SECOND playof entrant. I do think there is enough evidence to dismiss the argument that virtually any middling team (ie Utica) from the NJAC, LL, or E8 would SWEEP the NEFC without a fight from the aforementioned three teams.

That was kind of the whole point...the Pool C argument.  But I will say this...if you don't think Utica, if they all of a sudden were part of the NEFC tomorrow, wouldn't be the overwhelming favorite to win the league, then you would be about the only one. 


Yanks, I think you've moved the posts here.  ETP didn't think that it was a forgone conclussion that the middle-of-the-pack teams in the 4 stronger eastern conferences would sweep the NEFC, however I think he would agree that someone like Utica would be a favorite to get the AQ though perhaps not overwhelmingly.
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Offline ExTartanPlayer

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3686 on: November 21, 2012, 09:53:06 am »
But I will say this...if you don't think Utica, if they all of a sudden were part of the NEFC tomorrow, wouldn't be the overwhelming favorite to win the league, then you would be about the only one. 

No, I don't think Utica would be the overwhelming favorite to win the league, and furthermore I don't think I'd be alone in that opinion, although I'll leave it to the other fine folks on this board to weigh in.  I think they'd be a contender, certainly, but the overwhelming favorite?  No.

This year after Salve opened the season with wins over Union and Montclair, I think most of us took it for granted that they would cruise to the NEFC title.  Instead they lost two NEFC games (one of those admittedly being the conference title game), again after beating teams that would go on to finish in the upper echelon of their respective conferences.

The great thing about this debate is that we don't KNOW for certain.  I think there's enough data to support my side.  You think otherwise.  We are at an impasse for now.

And if you look back...I never brought up the NJAC, MAC, or LL.  Just the E8.  I stand by my beliefs that Salisbury through Utica would be the overwhelming favorite if they played in the NEFC. 

Understood.  I have referenced the other conferences because there are actual 2012 data points comparing NEFC to those conferences, and unfortunately there were no matchups between NEFC and Empie 8 teams this year.  Since we do have some crossover between the LL and E8 and can evaluate their strength relative to one another (the E8 is admittedly the stronger of the two), it still seems relevant to mention NEFC vs. LL/NJAC as a way to compare the NEFC to "other conferences" since you are so hung up on the "NEFC teams don't ever play anyone besides each other" thing.

I just don't like what the ECFC and now the MASCAC (who is almost exclusively made up of NEFC schools) did to get another AQ...plain and simple. 

I agree, but they've been doing the rest of D-3 a favor for the last decade by NOT breaking apart and only taking one AQ.  Who are we to decide whether it's cool for them to split up and take their second AQ as allowed by the rules?

At some point though, you are going to have 3 different teams from the NEFC, ECFC, and the MASCAC all finishing with 9-1 type records at the same time where none of them won their conference champion, and none of them playing a difficult non-conference schedule (staying in-house against NEFC, ECFC, and MASCAC schools).  Some lazy NCAA regional ranking system will probably have 5 or 6 of these teams (the 3 conference champs and the 3 one loss teams) in their top 10, while other stronger conferences beat the hell out of each other all while playing a difficult non-conference schedule.

I agree with your fears that a lazy NCAA regional ranking system will someday put a 9-1 NEFC or MASCAC runner up into the rankings that hasn't played outside the league(s), which is more or less what we did see this year with the ridiculous four-teams-from-the-NEFC regional ranking near the end of the season.  I do, again, want to make the distinction between the NEFC and ECFC, because the gap between the two is just as large as the E8-NEFC gap if not larger.  Again, NEFC #4 Endicott beat ECFC co-champ Castleton State 66-14.

However, I think you're overrating some of the other Eastern conferences "beating the hell out of each other" much the same way Bombers has made this point a few times in this discussion.  This isn't the SEC, even the "power" Eastern conferences have plenty of flawed teams, and if a particular Eastern team is a threat to make a splash in the playoffs against top-notch competition...they'll still survive that "beating the hell out of each other" and emerge somehow.

Understand...I am not necessarily arguing that a 2nd place or 3rd place team from the E8, LL, NJAC, or MAC deserved to get a Pool C nod this year.  But there were several teams throughout the nation that absolutely deserved it more than Bridgewater State did.

This, again, I agree with.  Never disputed that point.  Only point I've been arguing is that you think the top six Empire 8 teams would be overwhelming favorites in the NEFC.  They'd all be contenders, for certain, but I don't think your middling teams are guaranteed to beat the NEFC champs so easily.

Offline Yanks 99

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3687 on: November 21, 2012, 11:26:23 am »
You win...

New pre-season East Region Conference Power Rankings for 2013 as follows:

1) NEFC
2) ECFC
3) MASCAC
4) NESCAC (why not?)
5) Liberty League
6) MAC
7) NJAC
8) Empire 8
Hartwick College 2007 Empire 8 Champions

Offline ExTartanPlayer

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3688 on: November 21, 2012, 11:34:03 am »
You win...

New pre-season East Region Conference Power Rankings for 2013 as follows:

1) NEFC
2) ECFC
3) MASCAC
4) NESCAC (why not?)
5) Liberty League
6) MAC
7) NJAC
8) Empire 8

What is it with some of you guys (not all, but this is the second time I've been confronted with this particular response of "Fine, the NEFC is the best!") that makes it so hard to see a "happy medium" viewpoint?  It doesn't have to be one extreme or the other.  I have never said once that the NEFC is better than these respective leagues, and my post includes a direct quote stating that the Empire 8 is stronger than the Liberty League.

Honestly, do we have to resort to the eight-year-old's attitude of "OK, you disagree?  Fine you win!  I'm going to take my ball and go home!" instead of finding that middle ground?

Offline fisheralum91

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Re: East Region Playoff Discussion
« Reply #3689 on: November 21, 2012, 11:40:18 am »
Tartan,
I think that this discussion has been beaten worse than a last place horse at Santa Anita.
The agree to disagree mantra may have to come into play here...
I see ppl digging in heels.
 :o