Author Topic: BB: South Region General Talk -- '07, '08, '09 and '10  (Read 52880 times)

Offline narch

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #15 on: April 25, 2007, 09:39:59 pm »
FYI, Villa Julie has an automatic bid into the regional and is a South Region team.
at 13-1 in their conference, you'd think they stand a pretty good chance of winning that tourney, too...although they are kind of like salisbury in that they could go to a regional in nj or pa just as easily as a true southern regional tournament

i can't believe that team has 20 wins this season...they looked AWFUL against the monarchs, losing 14-1
« Last Edit: April 25, 2007, 09:42:54 pm by narch »

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #16 on: April 26, 2007, 12:19:37 am »
Take a look at my thread on the conference power rankings on the main board. You'll understand why they can be 13-1 in conference and have 20 wins but get hammered 14-1.

Keystone's not eligible. I thought VJ already won it. Maybe not.


Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #17 on: April 26, 2007, 12:33:49 am »
Villa Julie is a good team to fill out the bracket.  They are geographically close to the South and to the Mid-Atlantic.

I agree with Spence's overall impressions that the New England teams will push down the seaboard.  I also think that Millsaps and Rhodes get moved into the Central.

If StLouis is hosting, then those are convenient.

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2007, 01:59:04 am »
Or Bloomington. I still wonder what's going to happen out West though. One of Millsaps or Rhodes or both could end up going West, because I think some folks are going to be pushed west from the Mideast into the Central (at Bloomington?) It's just going to be a big domino effect, I think. There are 7 automatic bids just in New England, for example. That's where it starts.

Adding another bid back east (NEAC) and taking one away from the Midwest (Lake Michigan) makes moving people more necessary as well.

Offline Just_Some_Guy

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2007, 10:44:59 am »
I don't know how much ends up moving West. IF George Fox sweeps out the NWC this week, and then takes 4 of 6 from Chapman/East Bay I think they deserve an at large bid, and depending on what UT Dallas does in the ASC tournament, they could be there too.  That puts 6 teams out West w/o Rhodes or Millsaps.

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2007, 01:17:19 pm »
That's true, but those are two big ifs right now. Both those teams are on the bubble.

Offline narch

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2007, 02:30:45 pm »
i did some calculations for the monarchs

south region win % - .687 (22-10)
south region opp win % - .588 (388-272)
estimated qowi (using south region opp. overall record rather than regional record...too much work involved computing the exact number) - 9.97

2-1 vs. york and salisbury (beating york and splitting with salisbury) pushes the estimated qowi to 10.14

does 2-1 get the monarchs in???

Offline religion_major

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #22 on: April 29, 2007, 09:28:23 pm »
i did some calculations for the monarchs

south region win % - .687 (22-10)
south region opp win % - .588 (388-272)
estimated qowi (using south region opp. overall record rather than regional record...too much work involved computing the exact number) - 9.97

2-1 vs. york and salisbury (beating york and splitting with salisbury) pushes the estimated qowi to 10.14

does 2-1 get the monarchs in???

Judging from the recently released regional rankings, I would say that Methodist gets in.  That said, there is a lot of baseball left to be played in other regions that could effect Methodist's standing esspecially considering that two unranked teams (Ferrum and Bridgewater) have AQs.  Best of luck to the Monarchs, I hope the criteria breaks favorably for them.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #23 on: April 29, 2007, 09:35:27 pm »
I count Methodist's In-region record as being 23-10 tonight.  I think that they need to sweep Salisbury and York Pa (DH) in the next 8 days.

Offline A.G.

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #24 on: April 29, 2007, 10:25:19 pm »
That Sunday loss to Lynchburg may come back to haunt them.

Offline narch

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #25 on: April 29, 2007, 11:08:23 pm »
I count Methodist's In-region record as being 23-10 tonight.  I think that they need to sweep Salisbury and York Pa (DH) in the next 8 days.
if they were to sweep salisbury and york, they would be an absolute lock for a pool c, in my opinion...that's tough to do, though - you don't think 2-1 vs. those teams gives them a shot, ralph?

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #26 on: April 29, 2007, 11:25:42 pm »
Since the last regional rankings, Bridgewater and Ferrum are now both in the NCAA Regionals. This is what the teams ranked have done and where they currently stand with games left.

CLINCHED
Ferrum - 23-16 - Finished
Bridgewater - 21-21 - Finished

LOOKING
Emory - 35-7 - 4-0 - Finished (Seem to locked up #1 seed)
Salisbury - 27-7 - 1-0 - 7 Games vs. VJulie, JHopk, Meth, Wsly, & MontSt
York - 27-9 - 2-1 - 5 Games vs. Getty, JHopk, Meth, NCW
Methodist - 28-11 - 0-0 - 3 games vs. York, Salisbury
Rhodes - 36-10 - 1-2 - Finished
Mary Washington - 24-11-1 - 0-2 - 2 games vs. JHopk, VJulie

OTHERS
Millsaps - 35-11 - 2-2 - Finished
Averett - 31-12 - 0-0 - Finished

With important games still left, this is a decent bet on the Region.

#1 - Emory
#2 - Salisbury
#3 - York
#4 - Methodist / Rhodes (Methodist sweeps 3-0, they're in)
#5 - Ferrum
#6 - Bridgewater

I still think Millsaps gets shipped to the Central, but only time will tell.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #27 on: April 30, 2007, 09:26:56 am »
I count Methodist's In-region record as being 23-10 tonight.  I think that they need to sweep Salisbury and York Pa (DH) in the next 8 days.
if they were to sweep salisbury and york, they would be an absolute lock for a pool c, in my opinion...that's tough to do, though - you don't think 2-1 vs. those teams gives them a shot, ralph?
narch, I think that we have as many bubble teams in baseball as we did in hoops!

I don't know about 2-1.  I feel more comfortable about predicting the affirmative with 3-0.

Offline narch

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #28 on: April 30, 2007, 02:07:17 pm »
the monarchs clearly don't need any other upsets like austin college pulled this weekend winning the scac...i had been counting on either millsaps or rhodes to win that tourney and claim a pool a with the other getting a pool c...now we add 2 quality teams to pool c instead of 1

Offline religion_major

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Re: South Region - '07
« Reply #29 on: April 30, 2007, 04:53:49 pm »
the monarchs clearly don't need any other upsets like austin college pulled this weekend winning the scac...i had been counting on either millsaps or rhodes to win that tourney and claim a pool a with the other getting a pool c...now we add 2 quality teams to pool c instead of 1

Aren't both Rhodes and Millsaps bellow Methodist in the regional rankings anyway?  If that is the case then I do not see how an Austin College victory hurts Methodist that much if any.