Pool C -- 2007

[Ralph Turner]

What if Linfield won out and got seeded 8th in the West? They would have to be the scariest 8th seed that the playoffs have seen in a long time.

Since the 8th seed has only existed for 2--right?--years, I'd imagine you are correct.  But don't forget that in 1999 and 2000 the last seed in the West (7th at the time) made the Stagg Bowl, with Pacific Lutheran winning it all in '99 and St. John's falling a FG short against Mount Union in 2000.

That said, Linfield at #8 would really show the depth of the West.

A "2 vs. 7" is different from a "1 vs 8", and I think a very huge difference.

The Top 4 seeds have usually been very strong teams, and I think that the National Selection Committee has refined their tools even better thru the years as they have gotten used to the Pools.

[Knightstalker]

East Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. Alfred 7-0 7-0                 E8  at Hobart, at Ithaca, at SJF
2. Curry 8-0 8-0                  NEFC  Has NEFC Bowl on Nov 10
3. RPI 6-0 6-0                      LL  At Union Nov 10th
4. St. John Fisher 7-1 7-1     E8             Host Alfred Nov 10th
5. New Jersey 6-1 6-1           NJAC  Hosts Cortland Oct 27th
6. Albright 6-1 6-1                 MAC  Hosts Del Valley Nov 10th
7. Cortland State 5-1 6-1     NJAC  At NJCU Oct 27th
8. Union 4-2 4-2                    LL       Hosts Hobart Nov 3rd, Hosts RPI Nov 10th.
9. Hobart 5-2 5-2                   LL     Hosts Alfred Oct 27, at Union Nov 3rd
10. Delaware Valley 4-2 4-3   MAC  At Albright Nov 10th

Ralph, do you know something I don't know?  Did NJCU start the football program back up in last couple of weeks?  I think you meant Cortland v TCNJ on 10/27.   

[Llamaguy]

I really think that the NWC, especially Whitworth, is on the deep bubble.

Look at how many one loss teams are rated higher across the division.

The NWC is looking at the 3rd Pool B bid, but probably more importantly, the 7th Pool C bid (10th at-large bid overall).  I give a 30-70 chance, with 3 weeks left and some upsets occurring in those tight conference races remaining, that the NWC stays home this year.

I would have to agree with Ralph and here is why:

1. If Wesley beats Salisbury this weekend they will both finish with 1 loss in region.

2. Case Western Reserve has no losses and Washington U. has one. They play head-to-head on Nov. 3rd. Lets say Case Western wins, no zero loss team regardless of OWP has been jumped by a one loss team in the past. Lets say Washington U. wins and finishes with one loss and a OWP similar to their current 0.609. Washington U may get the Pool B bid in a close decision.

3. Linfield's current OWP is 0.625. Two of their 3 remaining games are against a zero win team and a 1 win team, thus that OWP will drop in future weeks even if they win out.

4. Case Western is ranked 4th in the North and Washington U. is 9th in the South.

Total it up and Linfield or any NWC team is going to have to hope Case Western and Washington U. both slip up in the final 3 weeks. The Pool B teams are taking shape and if the NWC has to get in via Pool C it may get even tighter.

[Ralph Turner]

And Llama did not factor any upsets into his reasoning.

Thanks KS!   Go Thick Nights!  They are my favorites! 

[downtown48]

If Linfield wins the NWC championship and doesn't get in it's going to be very unfortunate especially if Redlands gets in instead...

Go St. John's and Central!!!

[K-Mack]

I really think that the NWC, especially Whitworth, is on the deep bubble.

I actually agree, especially as long as Case and Wash U. both remain in the Pool B hunt.

The Wesley-Salisbury game will determine a lot, but if Wesley wins, they're both likely to get in in Pool B. If the UAA takes the last Pool B, it's up to the NWC to have its champion stack up against a nation full of Pool C candidates, which could spell trouble.

The other thing is if in-region winning percentage is a criteria, then the NWC teams are going to fall behind the UAA teams on percentage (i.e. 8-1 in-region vs. 5-1 or whatever)

Am I wrong?

It might be kind of wrong for the NWC champ not to make the playoffs at all, but by beating each other up (and with Whitworth losing to Redlands), they might have made their own beds.

****
(Guilty of posting first, reading last ... I see some of the same points have been made above. -1?)

[K-Mack]

What if Linfield won out and got seeded 8th in the West? They would have to be the scariest 8th seed that the playoffs have seen in a long time.

Since the 8th seed has only existed for 2--right?--years, I'd imagine you are correct.  But don't forget that in 1999 and 2000 the last seed in the West (7th at the time) made the Stagg Bowl, with Pacific Lutheran winning it all in '99 and St. John's falling a FG short against Mount Union in 2000.

That said, Linfield at #8 would really show the depth of the West.

A "2 vs. 7" is different from a "1 vs 8", and I think a very huge difference.

The Top 4 seeds have usually been very strong teams, and I think that the National Selection Committee has refined their tools even better thru the years as they have gotten used to the Pools.

Also what you guys are forgetting is that no matter where Linfield is seeded, they are playing the SCIAC in the first round if they get in.

Could be a No. 8 Linfield at No. 4 Occidental or something.

Will keep a close eye on the Bethel/Wartburg developments. I think that's a good point.

Guarantee there will be some losses that throw a monkey wrench into the whole thing. This does not appear to be a season where everything will break cleanly (as if there ever were one)

[K-Mack]

I really think that the NWC, especially Whitworth, is on the deep bubble.

Look at how many one loss teams are rated higher across the division.

The NWC is looking at the 3rd Pool B bid, but probably more importantly, the 7th Pool C bid (10th at-large bid overall).  I give a 30-70 chance, with 3 weeks left and some upsets occurring in those tight conference races remaining, that the NWC stays home this year.

I would have to agree with Ralph and here is why:

1. If Wesley beats Salisbury this weekend they will both finish with 1 loss in region.

2. Case Western Reserve has no losses and Washington U. has one. They play head-to-head on Nov. 3rd. Lets say Case Western wins, no zero loss team regardless of OWP has been jumped by a one loss team in the past. Lets say Washington U. wins and finishes with one loss and a OWP similar to their current 0.609. Washington U may get the Pool B bid in a close decision.

3. Linfield's current OWP is 0.625. Two of their 3 remaining games are against a zero win team and a 1 win team, thus that OWP will drop in future weeks even if they win out.

4. Case Western is ranked 4th in the North and Washington U. is 9th in the South.

Total it up and Linfield or any NWC team is going to have to hope Case Western and Washington U. both slip up in the final 3 weeks. The Pool B teams are taking shape and if the NWC has to get in via Pool C it may get even tighter.

Yeah, you make two points I meant to mention.

Linfield playing Menlo and Lewis and Clark, in addition to Whitworth, can't help the ol' SoS.

Also, the UAAs winning out is NOT guaranteed. Wash U. is on the road for three games. They might lose to Carnegie Mellon this week. Heckuva road trip.

Another thing to watch is that even teams who are eliminated from contention, having them do well and hang around the regional rankings, that gives the committee something else to consider under results against regionally ranked teams.

Upon further review, knocking Ithaca out of the regional rankings might be what did in Cortland State last year, if St. Olaf slid in at No. 10 in the West in the final week to save St. John's after the Bethel loss.

Can't remember exactly if that was the case or not, but a good example of why the regional rankings matter even when AQs are set.

[Llamaguy]

Absolutely agree Kmack! Wash. U. is actually a 3 pt dog to CMU this weekend according to Born Power. And Case Western has yet to play anyone with a 0.357 OWP. That is only better than 3 other regionally ranked teams: RPI, Albright and the whopping 0.261 OWP that Occidental currently holds. Both UAA teams could easily stumble but we all said the same last year about Carnegie Mellon and we know how that turned out.

[Ralph Turner]

K-Mack, your "post first, read later" pontifications are valuable to us mere mortals.  Your validating the things that we see gives them even greater significance.

It does appear that Oxy/SCIAC will get a chance to host 1-2 playoff games this season.  There may be a West Coast sub-region again this year. 

[MonroviaCat]

I understand all the points made about the NWC being on the bubble-  my question is does anybody think that Geography could give either Linfield or Whitworth an increased chance.  Assuming Oxy wins out they would likely host at least a first round game--the NWC teams would be the closest (and presumely cheapest) flights.  I haven't looked in depth at distances for other schools but it seems that in the past there have been occassions where teams have been left home due to "financial considerations" related to travel.  I guess the counterpoint would be it would be very cheap to put Redlands on a bus back to Eagle Rock (Home of Oxy) for a first round game.....I just think playing conference re-matches in the playoffs is kind of weak.....Thoughts?

[Ralph Turner]

I understand all the points made about the NWC being on the bubble-  my question is does anybody think that Geography could give either Linfield or Whitworth an increased chance.  Assuming Oxy wins out they would likely host at least a first round game--the NWC teams would be the closest (and presumably cheapest) flights.  I haven't looked in depth at distances for other schools but it seems that in the past there have been occasions where teams have been left home due to "financial considerations" related to travel.  I guess the counterpoint would be it would be very cheap to put Redlands on a bus back to Eagle Rock (Home of Oxy) for a first round game.....I just think playing conference re-matches in the playoffs is kind of weak.....Thoughts?

Actually I don't think that there is a difference between a plane flight and another plane flight.  I am sure that the NCAA's corporate airline transportation account works at an economy of scale that we are not used to seeing.

It is our impression in the ASC that geography works against us.  I don't see that the NWC would gain too much either.

There is one other thing that is happening to Linfield.  The win over HSU does not look as good this season as it would have in the previous 15, and it might not improve.

As for first round rematches, I decry it every time that I see it. 

I think that the NWC should hope for no Cinderella's and no upsets!

[MonroviaCat]

I think that the NWC should hope for no Cinderella's and no upsets!

 

Well, mabye a Cal Lutheran upset of Redlands would be helpful....

[d-train]

I think that the NWC should hope for no Cinderella's and no upsets!

 

Well, mabye a Cal Lutheran upset of Redlands would be helpful....

Second losses to Pool B and C candidates help: Lacrosse over Stevens Point; Salisbury over Wesley; Redlands dropping one; Washington Univ. losing one (but beating Case Western maybe?). (What Ralph is saying is...) You don't want any currently undefeated teams losing their conference title and become strong Pool C candidates (SJU, Central, Alfred). Unless Salisbury wins, the NWC's path won't get much clearer until Nov. 10th.

[MonroviaCat]

I think that the NWC should hope for no Cinderella's and no upsets!

 

Well, mabye a Cal Lutheran upset of Redlands would be helpful....

Second losses to Pool B and C candidates help: Lacrosse over Stevens Point; Salisbury over Wesley; Redlands dropping one; Washington Univ. losing one (but beating Case Western maybe?). (What Ralph is saying is...) You don't want any currently undefeated teams losing their conference title and become strong Pool C candidates (SJU, Central, Alfred). Unless Salisbury wins, the NWC's path won't get much clearer until Nov. 10th.

Yeah, I got it.