Author Topic: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007  (Read 8171 times)

Spence

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Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« on: January 22, 2008, 09:46:05 pm »
Including last year, there have been 41 1st-team all-american pitchers (including a couple of pitching-primary UTLs, I chose some based on the extent to which they were a pitcher first; for example, I included Gilblair but not Yacko; if Yacko is indeed a starting pitcher this year then he would probably be applicable).

Anyway, I did this because I wanted to find out how difficult it was for a team to bounce back after losing a 1st team AA pitcher considering how many teams that lost one are highly-ranked in the preseason this year.

Here's what I found.

*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).

The rate at which teams that made the Series were able to return did not differ significantly based on keeping or losing their 1st team AA. 5 of 11 with them back vs. 5 of 12 without. But in 2007, all 4 teams that the 1st team AAs from 2006 made the series. Before then, no more than 2 teams had accomplished that, returning their 1st teamer or not. So statistically, at least 2 of Kean, Cortland, Chapman and ECSU won't be back to Appleton unless we continue to buck the trend as we did last year.

But that's not the only interesting thing I learned.
The 8 out of 10 ratio of 1st teamers to national champions is very strong. But more amazing is that NONE of those 8 had ever been a 1st team all-american before, and only 1 had been an all-american of any kind! It's happened for 5 straight years.

The only two teams to have a 1st team all-american and then win the national championship the next year also had a 1st team all-american in their championship year, but (obviously) not the same one both years.

4 of the 5 1st teamers that returned for their teams after their teams failed to make the championship the previous year led their teams to the championship the next year. The 5 were Marietta (twice), ECSU, Carthage and Manchester -- "One of these things is not like others." Wooster returns a 1st teamer, but which category do they rightly fit into?

8 first teamers played on teams that did not make the series and their A-A did not return. 0 made the championship series the next year.

As always, your mileage may vary, and feel free to speak up if you spot an error. Thanks, and enjoy.

Offline Jim Dixon

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2008, 10:19:11 am »

*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).


23/36 making the Championship round is 64% and higher than the 55% of those ranked in a preseason poll making just the playoffs.

Having had an AA pitcher is a better predictor of success.

+k to Spence for his post.

Spence

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2008, 11:05:51 am »

*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).


23/36 making the Championship round is 64% and higher than the 55% of those ranked in a preseason poll making just the playoffs.

Having had an AA pitcher is a better predictor of success.

+k to Spence for his post.

Woohoo now I'm only -8,999,999 or whatever it is. :)

It should be noted that whereas the preseason poll would be considered a leading indicator, the all-american thing would be a lagging indicator -- by the time you find out who the 1st team AAs are, they've already made it. Kind of like government numbers indicating economic growth/recession. We've already covered the chicken/egg scenario regarding all-america picks and entrants in the championship round.

A leading indicator would be that 10 of the 23 teams represented by 1st team AAs at the series in a given year returned the next year, and that among those teams, it doesn't really matter if the first team AA is coming back or not. 10 for 23 is still pretty good, though I don't know if it's as good as it seems, considering the usual suspects are represented in that sampling and I'm not sure that 10 for 23 is any better than one would do just penciling in teams based purely on the past (example, if you just blindly put Marietta in with no regard to anything else, historically you'd be right 2/3 of the time).

What I thought was most interesting was the first-time first-team AA phenomenon. The way I basically read it is as an indicator of depth in the pitching staff, but I think part of it is just dumb luck -- example being DeSalvo's injury in 2002.

I guess the way to use this as a predictor is to be able to predict the 1st team AA pitchers. Not sure how realistic that is in preseason, but perhaps as the season progresses it might become more possible.

By the way, it's courtesy your record gathering and keeping that I was able to do this for some of the previous years. I am inclined to think that 2nd and 3rd team analysis could be useful as well, but the years in school for those are not on site, and I don't have any idea where else they could come from.

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2008, 11:29:04 am »
Including last year, there have been 41 1st-team all-american pitchers (including a couple of pitching-primary UTLs, I chose some based on the extent to which they were a pitcher first; for example, I included Gilblair but not Yacko; if Yacko is indeed a starting pitcher this year then he would probably be applicable).

Anyway, I did this because I wanted to find out how difficult it was for a team to bounce back after losing a 1st team AA pitcher considering how many teams that lost one are highly-ranked in the preseason this year.

Here's what I found.

*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).

The rate at which teams that made the Series were able to return did not differ significantly based on keeping or losing their 1st team AA. 5 of 11 with them back vs. 5 of 12 without. But in 2007, all 4 teams that the 1st team AAs from 2006 made the series. Before then, no more than 2 teams had accomplished that, returning their 1st teamer or not. So statistically, at least 2 of Kean, Cortland, Chapman and ECSU won't be back to Appleton unless we continue to buck the trend as we did last year.

But that's not the only interesting thing I learned.
The 8 out of 10 ratio of 1st teamers to national champions is very strong. But more amazing is that NONE of those 8 had ever been a 1st team all-american before, and only 1 had been an all-american of any kind! It's happened for 5 straight years.

The only two teams to have a 1st team all-american and then win the national championship the next year also had a 1st team all-american in their championship year, but (obviously) not the same one both years.

4 of the 5 1st teamers that returned for their teams after their teams failed to make the championship the previous year led their teams to the championship the next year. The 5 were Marietta (twice), ECSU, Carthage and Manchester -- "One of these things is not like others." Wooster returns a 1st teamer, but which category do they rightly fit into?

8 first teamers played on teams that did not make the series and their A-A did not return. 0 made the championship series the next year.

As always, your mileage may vary, and feel free to speak up if you spot an error. Thanks, and enjoy.

Spence- Great work! How much time DO you have on your hands? Your reasearch went above and beyond any thoughts that I conjured up in my own mind. Kodos!
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Spence

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2008, 12:59:07 pm »
Including last year, there have been 41 1st-team all-american pitchers (including a couple of pitching-primary UTLs, I chose some based on the extent to which they were a pitcher first; for example, I included Gilblair but not Yacko; if Yacko is indeed a starting pitcher this year then he would probably be applicable).

Anyway, I did this because I wanted to find out how difficult it was for a team to bounce back after losing a 1st team AA pitcher considering how many teams that lost one are highly-ranked in the preseason this year.

Here's what I found.

*23 of the 36 played in the championship tournament -- including all but 2 since 2004. 20 of those 23 teams won at least one game.
*16 of the 36 returned to play the next year
*8 of them 36 won national championships (out of 10 years).

The rate at which teams that made the Series were able to return did not differ significantly based on keeping or losing their 1st team AA. 5 of 11 with them back vs. 5 of 12 without. But in 2007, all 4 teams that the 1st team AAs from 2006 made the series. Before then, no more than 2 teams had accomplished that, returning their 1st teamer or not. So statistically, at least 2 of Kean, Cortland, Chapman and ECSU won't be back to Appleton unless we continue to buck the trend as we did last year.

But that's not the only interesting thing I learned.
The 8 out of 10 ratio of 1st teamers to national champions is very strong. But more amazing is that NONE of those 8 had ever been a 1st team all-american before, and only 1 had been an all-american of any kind! It's happened for 5 straight years.

The only two teams to have a 1st team all-american and then win the national championship the next year also had a 1st team all-american in their championship year, but (obviously) not the same one both years.

4 of the 5 1st teamers that returned for their teams after their teams failed to make the championship the previous year led their teams to the championship the next year. The 5 were Marietta (twice), ECSU, Carthage and Manchester -- "One of these things is not like others." Wooster returns a 1st teamer, but which category do they rightly fit into?

8 first teamers played on teams that did not make the series and their A-A did not return. 0 made the championship series the next year.

As always, your mileage may vary, and feel free to speak up if you spot an error. Thanks, and enjoy.

Spence- Great work! How much time DO you have on your hands? Your reasearch went above and beyond any thoughts that I conjured up in my own mind. Kodos!

Fortunately, neither this site nor d3baseball.com is blocked at work. :)

It really didn't take all that long though, again thanks to Jim. Just repeated comparison of a few web pages. I'd like to do more with it; I'm one of those people that likes to look for magic bullets that will probably never be found.

Offline BigPoppa

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2008, 02:55:24 pm »

Fortunately, neither this site nor d3baseball.com is blocked at work. :)

It really didn't take all that long though, again thanks to Jim. Just repeated comparison of a few web pages. I'd like to do more with it; I'm one of those people that likes to look for magic bullets that will probably never be found.

There is no magic bullet. Everyone knows Kennedy was killed with TWO shooters!
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Offline Jim Dixon

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2008, 06:02:32 pm »

It should be noted that whereas the preseason poll would be considered a leading indicator, the all-american thing would be a lagging indicator -- by the time you find out who the 1st team AAs are, they've already made it. Kind of like government numbers indicating economic growth/recession. We've already covered the chicken/egg scenario regarding all-america picks and entrants in the championship round.


I also expect that a pitcher capable of being an AA derives some benefit of having a good team behind him.  When the pitcher leaves, he might just leave the team behind to play another year.  Also I expect the teams with AA pitchers are those who have had a successful record in the past - also supporting their appearance in the Championship round.

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2008, 03:33:31 pm »
Spence,

I also appreciate all your work on this... thank goodness for free time at work... LOL
+1 here too.

But as BigPoppa points out... there are no magic bullets.  But I do know a guy who is trying to sell some magic beans.

 ;)

Spence

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2008, 12:58:17 am »

It should be noted that whereas the preseason poll would be considered a leading indicator, the all-american thing would be a lagging indicator -- by the time you find out who the 1st team AAs are, they've already made it. Kind of like government numbers indicating economic growth/recession. We've already covered the chicken/egg scenario regarding all-america picks and entrants in the championship round.


I also expect that a pitcher capable of being an AA derives some benefit of having a good team behind him.  When the pitcher leaves, he might just leave the team behind to play another year.  Also I expect the teams with AA pitchers are those who have had a successful record in the past - also supporting their appearance in the Championship round.

All true.

I don't think it's as illuminating as it originally seems, but it's still not useless by any stretch I don't think.

dgilblair

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2008, 05:49:00 pm »

It should be noted that whereas the preseason poll would be considered a leading indicator, the all-american thing would be a lagging indicator -- by the time you find out who the 1st team AAs are, they've already made it. Kind of like government numbers indicating economic growth/recession. We've already covered the chicken/egg scenario regarding all-america picks and entrants in the championship round.


I also expect that a pitcher capable of being an AA derives some benefit of having a good team behind him.  When the pitcher leaves, he might just leave the team behind to play another year.  Also I expect the teams with AA pitchers are those who have had a successful record in the past - also supporting their appearance in the Championship round.

Very nice work Spence.
By predicting the preseason poll you almost have to be predicting the AA pitchers as well donít you think?  So the AA thing really isnít a lagging indicator if the preseason pollís come to be true. 

07 had three out of four teams with AA (1st team) pitchers in Appleton.  Wooster was the exception.
06 had all four teams and pitchers.
05 had all three teams and pitchers
04 had all four teams and pitchers

If you pick four preseason 1st team AA pitchers you really have to have their teams in the top 4 of your preseason polls. So if you are predicting the preseason poll you really must think the teams picked in the top eight has a potential AA 1st team pitcher.  I think it makes sense in predicting those they run parallel to each other. 

Spence

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2008, 05:14:00 pm »

It should be noted that whereas the preseason poll would be considered a leading indicator, the all-american thing would be a lagging indicator -- by the time you find out who the 1st team AAs are, they've already made it. Kind of like government numbers indicating economic growth/recession. We've already covered the chicken/egg scenario regarding all-america picks and entrants in the championship round.


I also expect that a pitcher capable of being an AA derives some benefit of having a good team behind him.  When the pitcher leaves, he might just leave the team behind to play another year.  Also I expect the teams with AA pitchers are those who have had a successful record in the past - also supporting their appearance in the Championship round.

Very nice work Spence.
By predicting the preseason poll you almost have to be predicting the AA pitchers as well donít you think?  So the AA thing really isnít a lagging indicator if the preseason pollís come to be true. 

07 had three out of four teams with AA (1st team) pitchers in Appleton.  Wooster was the exception.
06 had all four teams and pitchers.
05 had all three teams and pitchers
04 had all four teams and pitchers

If you pick four preseason 1st team AA pitchers you really have to have their teams in the top 4 of your preseason polls. So if you are predicting the preseason poll you really must think the teams picked in the top eight has a potential AA 1st team pitcher.  I think it makes sense in predicting those they run parallel to each other. 


Assuming there's no issues with guys being in the same regional, yeah I guess you would say that. But there's different levels of thinking involved; both who is an excellent pitcher and who is an excellent pitcher that would be most likely to get 1st team AA recognition -- and they may be two different things. A great pitcher might go 8-4 in a really great league if he was on a crummy offensive team, but he's probably not going to be a 1st team all-american.

Sure, if you're able to predict the first team AA pitchers, you'd stand a real good chance of predicting 2-3 of the teams to make it to Appleton. But remember the qualifiers though -- namely that if you made the championship the year before, it doesn't seem to matter if your AA is returning or not. If an AA is coming back from a non-championship tournament team, then usually that team is going to Appleton the next year, but in a small sample size there was a big difference between the programs that made it and the one that didn't.

By this thinking, if the d3baseball.com preseason 1st team AA selections are correct and the trend analysis holds up, one might say this would be the result:

Chapman makes it back. Kitchens was a 3rd team AA last year, has an AA UTL even though he's a reliever, and the program is as good as it gets.

Wooster goes, I guess. 4 out of 5 teams that had a returning AA and didn't make the series the previous year did the next year. BUT remember who those teams were. Is Wooster more Marietta, ECSU or (probably the most apt comparison) Carthage? Or more like Manchester?

Illinois Wesleyan...oh lord. The most statistically dominant pitcher on the AA team, on a team with very limited championship success. This looks like more Manchester than the others, so I have to say no.

I'd add ECSU as well, because there's no way the ABCA all-american team would have split up Yacko and Gilblair -- they both would have been first team. ECSU I think is going back.

dgilblair

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2008, 10:41:53 am »
Makes sense.  You do really need the team around you to get there thats for sure.

Spence

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Re: Study of 1st team all-american pitchers 1998-2007
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2013, 06:03:10 pm »
I thought I would update this work with the results from 2008-2012.

The first set of numbers under each year is the ABCA A-A, the second is D3baseball.com (minus relief pitchers who don't really fit into this analysis), and the third are the teams in Appleton with the champion starred.

Seems the trends -- and lack of trends -- still mostly hold.

2008
Tim Kiely -- Trinity SR
Wayde Kitchens -- Chapman JR
Ryan Kulik -- Rowan SR
Kenny Moreland -- CNU SR
Chandler Barnard -- Trinity SR

Kitchens
Kiely
Moreland
Shane Wolf -- Ithaca

Adrian
Chapman
JHU
Kean
Linfield
Cortland
Trinity*
UWW

2009
ABCA
Jeremiah Bayer -- Trinity SR
Conor Fahey -- WPI SR
Matt Schuld -- UST JR
Mark Miller -- Wooster SR
Shawn Gilblair -- ECSU SR

D3baseball
Bayer
Domschot -- Adrian
Fahey
Justin McDowell -- Wooster
Gilblair

Carthage
Chapman
Farmingdale
Kean
Shenandoah
Trinity
UST*
Wooster

2010
Greg Van Sickler -- Shen JR
Will Savage -- Webster SR
Matt Schuld -- UST SR
Brian Rauh -- Chapman FR
Sam Eagleson -- Hopkins SO

Eagleson
Dave Filak -- Oneonta
Rauh
Schuld
Van Sickler

Heidelberg
IWU*
JHU
Linfield
UMass-Boston
Shenandoah
Cortland
Stevens Point

2011
Greg Van Sickler -- Shen SR
Brendan Close -- Moravian JR
Brian Gasser -- Marietta JR
Greg Ross -- Frostburg SR
Brian Rauh -- Chapman SO

Close
Gasser
Rauh
Van Sickler

Buena Vista
Chapman
Kean
Keystone
Marietta
Salisbury
WNEC
UWW

2012
Ben Klimesh -- Trinity SR
Austin Blaski -- Marietta SR
BRian Rauh -- Chapman JR
Steve Maher -- UST SO
Ryan Zamorsky -- Kean SR

Blaski
Klimesh
Maher
Rauh
Dylan Thomas -- UST JR

CNU
Cortland
Kean
Marietta
UST
Webster
Wheaton
Whitworth