gatekeeper,
While failing to sign after being drafted as a junior might mean you will not be redrafted by the same club, it certainly does not mean a player will not be selected as a senior by another club. If that player returns for his senior year and puts up very good numbers, either similar to or better than those which got him drafted as a junior, he is pretty likely to be drafted. I know two pitchers who failed to sign last summer after being drafted who did very well this Spring and are getting far more interest now than last summer both in terms of teams and projected rounds for the draft. In fact, a club can draft a player in two consecutive drafts but needs to get an agreement from the player if they cannot sign him following the first draft. So, it isn't correct that you won't get drafted if you fail to sign as a junior.
What is true is that he will have little to no leverage as a senior sign when it comes to money.
In my personal view, though, for other than the top 2-3 rounds, no player should be looking at this for the money, and the dream should not get too much in the way of reality. Money is only made when you are a top draft pick, get to MLB or complete 6 years of Milb, can still play and can negotiate a decent free agent contract with a AAA team.
Players in Milb make from $1,300 to $2,200 per month, during the season from April to August. That is the extent of their income from baseball during the 6 years they are under contract to the first team that drafts and signs them.
Players in Milb compete because they absolutely love the game, have a passion to compete and get better, and because they force the team to promote them before the team concludes they can be replaced and releases them. Players in Milb play every single day knowing they can be released and be done tomorrow. They see it happen everyday, to very good players.
Bottom line: about 90% or so of the 1,500 players picked in the next two days are not going to get enough money for it to be meaningful in their choices of what to do in terms of college vs signing. If you are junior and don't sign, you can get drafted the following year, but you do need to continue to show you can play and demonstrate the skills that got you drafted in the first place.
For those college juniors who do get the choice to sign following the draft or return and finish their eligibility, they need to know that Milb is a business. If you are picked anywhere from round 15 and after, you need to "earn" playing time and prove you can play, and you won't get many chances to do so in many organizations. If you fail to do so, your organization will have 2-3 players competing for your spot and will have no qualms releasing you.
Our son was a 25th round pick in 2004. Of the second day picks in his organization, only he and the 19th round pick are still in Milb. Most of those picked on day 2 in 2004 were released by the end of 2005.
In my view, especially for DIII players in top programs who are drafted as juniors after the 10th round, it would be a very, very tough choice to accept the type of money that might be available and give up graduating on time and having that last year of college competition.
Milb is such a singular experience as contrasted with the team experience of college baseball. It can be very gratifying to prove you can play, and succeed, with the best. For our son, he got into a number of MLB Spring Training games, got AB's against Randy Johnson in Spring Training, and caused a bit of a stir when he was the only DIII player who competed in the MWL All Star Game in June of 2005. He competed quite well.
But, in retrospect, he loved his senior year in college when he completed his degree in 4 years, where they won the SCAC tournament, played in the championship game of the West Regional, and he had the opportunity to compete with the Newport Gulls of the NECBL, one of the very top summer wood bat league teams anywhere, including the Cape and Northwoods leagues.
In a sense, he got the best of both, but I would not suggest his experience or our values would be right for everyone.
There are monetary amounts in bonus money that make the decision worthwhile, but those amounts will be available to very, very few DIII players, in my view. When you consider how little money is available in Milb for most players and also realize it is truly a business where you can be finished tomorrow, it is easier, in retrospect, to see the value of completing your education and having those types of team experiences that Milb cannot/does not provide.
