Author Topic: South Region Fan Poll  (Read 235376 times)

Offline Wild Horse Rider

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1470 on: October 07, 2019, 11:05:42 am »
Through 5 weeks there are 6 unbeaten teams in the south region (not including Brevard who is still in the process of reclassifying).  I don't think anything changes for UMBH this week and I would guess that Muhlenberg and Berry move up a spot each with HSU sliding in at #4.  CMU falls out and Westminster doesn't receive any votes this week.  Where will TLU and by extension Hendrix fit in the mix?  I'm sure Bridgewater will not receive any votes and will likely win this weekend and should make it to 6-0 until they have their first real test on 10/26 against W&L.  Big game with Hendrix going to play Berry this weekend so there will be no more than 5 unbeaten teams next week.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2019, 11:50:10 am by Wild Horse Rider »

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1471 on: October 09, 2019, 09:14:46 pm »
South Region Fan Poll  Week #5

1)  UMHB50         1,1,1,1,1..
2)  Muhlenberg452,2,2,2,2..
3)  Berry 403,3,3,3,3..
4)  Susq  324,4,4,5,6..
5)  JHU  284,5,5,6,7..
.....
6)  HSU       234,6,7,7,8..
7)  TLU  215,6,6,8,9..
8)  CWRU 155,7,8,10,10..
9) Hendrix   117,9,9,9,10..
10) Trinity TX68,8,x,x,x..
.      ....
RV Bridgewater    210,10,x,x,x..
RV W&J     29,x,x,x,x.
.      ....
.      ....

Corrections are always appreciated. 

Thanks to ADL70, hasanova, Scots13 and new pollster, FCGrizzlies.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1472 on: October 09, 2019, 09:22:23 pm »
Once you start looking at Head-to-head games, you can really get confused.

TLU lost to Hendrix and beat HSU.
Trinity lost close games to Berry and HSU.
Susque beat JHU
JHU beat Randy-Mac and lost a close one to Susquehanna.
Susquehanna lost to Muhlenberg.


Games to watch:

Oct 12  Hendrix at Berry
Oct 12  W&J at CWRU

Oct 26 HSU at UMHB

Nov 2 JHU at Muhlenberg
Nov 9 TLU at UMHB

Offline Wild Horse Rider

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1473 on: October 09, 2019, 10:51:36 pm »
Ralph
If CWRU wins then is W&J effectively done for a pool C bid? If W&J wins does the PAC have enough to get 2 teams in?
Will the SAA get two teams in again if the runner up has 1 loss (Berry, Hendrix, or Millsaps)? Also I know 2 loss pool C teams are extremely rare but if Trinity wins out do they stand a chance?
The Centennial appears to be looking good for a pool C bid but if JHU (I believe they get the AQ in that scenario) wins out who will look better to the committee, Susquehanna or Muhlenberg?
If UMHB wins out then every other team in the ASC would have 2 losses. Are they looking at one team in the field then?
If RMC wins out and that is Bridgewater’s only loss will their OOC schedule keep that 9-1 team out of the bracket?

I know there are plenty of games left to figure these things out but I was just curious.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1474 on: October 10, 2019, 12:01:08 am »
I think that the ASC is a 1-bid conference, unless TLU beats UMHB. Then I think it might get "iffy".

There are only 5 Pool C bids to give and I think that the Centennial has the best chance at earning a Pool C.

My second choice would be for Hendrix to earn the SAA Pool A and have Berry as the top contender for Pool C.

Football Championship Manual

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2019-20D3MFB_PreChampsManual.pdf
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 12:04:22 am by Ralph Turner »

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1475 on: October 10, 2019, 01:31:23 pm »
If TLU does beat UMHB, I think UMHB finds themselves in a situation similar to where Mount Union was in 2016.  They won't have a good SOS and they won't have significant results against ranked opponents, but there's no way- and I mean NO way- that the selection committee is going to go five rounds of at-large selections and not put UMHB in the field*.



*assuming the South RAC doesn't bury them in the rankings, which would be silly
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1476 on: October 10, 2019, 04:17:49 pm »
If TLU does beat UMHB, I think UMHB finds themselves in a situation similar to where Mount Union was in 2016.  They won't have a good SOS and they won't have significant results against ranked opponents, but there's no way- and I mean NO way- that the selection committee is going to go five rounds of at-large selections and not put UMHB in the field*.



*assuming the South RAC doesn't bury them in the rankings, which would be silly
... but all the South RAC would have to do is the put such a miscreant football program as UMHB behind a Centennial one-loss team and the five rounds would come and go.

Offline Wild Horse Rider

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1477 on: October 10, 2019, 04:44:54 pm »
Is there not still subjectivity to the selection process or do they go strictly off of what the RAC submits?  If not do they just look at the highest ranked teams from each region that didn't get an AQ then make selections straight down the line or do they re-rank them for lack of a better term?  For example if they re-ranked the pool C teams:
South RR #1, 2, 3, 5, 6, & 8 get AQs then #4, 7, 9, & 10 go to pool C
East RR #1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, & 9 get AQs  then #2, 8, & 10 go to pool C
Pool C S #4, E #2, E #8, S #7, S #9, E #10, & S #10

I know there are 2 more regions but is this what the National Committee is charged to do?  I see the criteria from the link you posted last night but I didn't see this specifically.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1478 on: October 10, 2019, 05:22:03 pm »
Is there not still subjectivity to the selection process or do they go strictly off of what the RAC submits?  If not do they just look at the highest ranked teams from each region that didn't get an AQ then make selections straight down the line or do they re-rank them for lack of a better term?  For example if they re-ranked the pool C teams:
South RR #1, 2, 3, 5, 6, & 8 get AQs then #4, 7, 9, & 10 go to pool C
East RR #1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, & 9 get AQs  then #2, 8, & 10 go to pool C
Pool C S #4, E #2, E #8, S #7, S #9, E #10, & S #10

I know there are 2 more regions but is this what the National Committee is charged to do?  I see the criteria from the link you posted last night but I didn't see this specifically.

The national committee takes the rankings from the regional committees, scrubs out the AQs (as you have done) then evaluate just the top remaining team from each region against one another using the published criteria.  So it's not automatic that, using your example, E2 would be selected before S4.  They would be evaluated against one another and the committee would select the one they feel is the best, based on the published criteria. 

Here's a really early projection I did last year where I explain the mechanics of selection.  I'll probably start up with this exercise again after Week 7.  Maybe 8.  We'll see how it goes. 

... but all the South RAC would have to do is the put such a miscreant football program as UMHB behind a Centennial one-loss team and the five rounds would come and go.

Which would be a shame.  If the NCAA felt the penalties needed to include a postseason ban, they would have said so.  The South RAC needn't go vigilante here. 
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1479 on: October 10, 2019, 07:04:37 pm »
If TLU does beat UMHB, I think UMHB finds themselves in a situation similar to where Mount Union was in 2016.  They won't have a good SOS and they won't have significant results against ranked opponents, but there's no way- and I mean NO way- that the selection committee is going to go five rounds of at-large selections and not put UMHB in the field*.



*assuming the South RAC doesn't bury them in the rankings, which would be silly
... but all the South RAC would have to do is the put such a miscreant football program as UMHB behind a Centennial one-loss team and the five rounds would come and go.
Let me propose this Regional Ranking after the games of 11/16.

1) Hendrix 10-0 (SAA) Pool A. Wins over Berry and TLU
2) CWRU 10-0 (Pres AC) Pool A
3) Bridgewater 10-0 (ODAC) Pool A.
4) TLU 9-1 (ASC) Pool A. Loss to Hendrix
5) JHU 9-1. (Centennial Conference tri-champs.) Pool A by stronger win over RMC than other tri-champs' OOC wins
6) Muhlenberg Pool C (CC) Has win over TCNJ which might go 4-6 or 5-5.
7) UMHB Pool C (OOC victory over currently winless Albright)
8) Susquehanna (CC) 9-1
9) Berry 9-1 (SAA) Pool C
10) RMC 8-2 (ODAC) Pool C

That may be a reach to leave a 2-loss HSU out of the rankings in favor of a 2-loss RMC, but RMC has a loss to JHU. HSU's OOC win was unranked Trinity.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 07:07:07 pm by Ralph Turner »

Offline ADL70

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1480 on: October 13, 2019, 11:49:43 am »
SoS up on the site - submitted for your consideration

Unbeatens:

Muhlenberg 6-0 .627
CWRU 5-0         .513
Berry 6-0          .509
Bridgewater 5-0 .474
UMHB 5-0          .341


One Loss:

Susquehanna 4-1  .664
TLU 4-1                .642
Hendrix 3-1          .641
JHU 4-1                .630
R-MC 5-1              .610
H-SU  4-1             .609
CMU  5-1              .530
NC Wesleyan 3-1   .522
Averett  4-1          .506

Don't think that I left anyone out         
« Last Edit: October 13, 2019, 12:01:15 pm by ADL70 »
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Offline jknezek

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1481 on: October 13, 2019, 02:14:57 pm »
W&L is missing from the one loss list.

Offline ADL70

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1482 on: October 13, 2019, 11:11:08 pm »
Thanks Good catch I must have stopped when I got to UMHB at .341  W&L 4-1 SoS .339
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Offline jknezek

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1483 on: October 14, 2019, 08:32:19 am »
Thanks Good catch I must have stopped when I got to UMHB at .341  W&L 4-1 SoS .339

Yeah. They've had all softballs...

Offline Wild Horse Rider

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Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Reply #1484 on: October 14, 2019, 12:15:00 pm »
W&J loses their only vote this week.  How many ballots will Hendrix show up on this week?  Does Bridgewater sneak in at #10.  All in all kinda quite weekend in the south coming up with the only game of real consequence I see on the slate are Averett v NCWC and W&L v E&H.  W&L has to go play what may be a sneaky good E&H (lost in OT to NCWC and by 3 to RMC) team on the road.  Other than those two games I would take all of the undefeated and one loss teams mentioned by ALD70 previously as well as the 2 loss Trinity team against Millsaps for the wins.