Still, I don't see how Monmouth has been kept so far away for so long.
Easy. Carroll is not a marquee win anywhere but on your chart, and the Midwest is one of the least-strong conferences, and the numbers don't necessarily account for that. As with teams from other less-strong conferences (see Curry, Trine, etc.), it takes some time and several wins before they creep into the 20s. Generally.
I think the St. Norbert win is the first one that thrust them onto most voters' watch lists.
The numbers are certainly helpful to voters, but it's safe to say a lot of them probably prefer to use common sense to huge charts. Right or wrong, it's likely how it works.
I don't know how to identify or evaluate Marquee Wins, so I included wins against former national champions, pre-season Top 25 ranked teams, and teams who currently have an SoS winning percentage of .800 or higher.
I know (and appreciate!) how to learn the definitions of ironic, coincidental and apropos
, but I don't know how Marquee Win is defined.
This is all a heck of a lot of fun, and I understand that it's all based on very inexact science. However, d3football.com has advertised its Top 25 poll as the result of more exact science than any of the alternatives.
I would guess that the AFCA poll voters believe that they are using common sense. "Common sense" is more often discussed when it's missing than when it's present, so I don't really know how to recognize when common sense is being used in lieu of huge charts.
However, I do know how to read thoughtful explanations offered by poll voters. My list was as near as I could get to an objective rendering of Pat's rather thorough explanation of the relative positions of Cortland St. and Case Western after week 5. Pat mentioned SoS/OWP, Margin of Victory, and Marquee Wins. Recently it appears that OOWP is implicated, but I'm not sure if OOWP was used in the Week 5 poll.
I can understand the temptation to use perceived relative conference strength, but that would really be a stretch to apply to an undefeated team that has not been in the playoffs recently, e.g. Monmouth. Sure, you can point out that its conference mates don't do well out of the conference in regular season or playoffs, but that argument can't be applied directly to the undefeated playoff-stranger team in question--not logically, at least. . . . but I understand that to many people, logic is different than common sense.
I can also understand (sort of) why voters want to look at SoS/OWP and OOWP, but common sense dictates that those statistics are secondary to Winning Percentage. An 0-5 team could have an OWP/OOWP of .750/550, but does that mean it should be ranked higher than a 5-0 team?
Is Franklin a Marquee win for Trine? If so, why? And if Franklin is a Marquee win for Trine, why isn't Carroll a Marquee Win for Monmouth?
My head is starting to spin--and this stuff is a LOT easier to try and figure out than Empire 8 what-ifs.