Author Topic: TOP 25  (Read 103687 times)

Online Ron Boerger

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #240 on: November 03, 2008, 12:42:53 am »
Quote from: K-Mack
3 Texas teams

I'd guesstimate the chance of three Texas teams at being 20-25% tops.  UMHB and HSU are in; with Trinity's best W being against DePauw and crummy opponents (record-wise) otherwise, they really don't have the credentials that many of the other one-loss teams bring to the tables.  If they'd lost, oh, maybe 49-34 instead of 56-27, I might feel a little better.  Margin of victory's not supposed to count but when you put team A against team B and team B has a 30-point loss on the table ... yeesh.  My guys are gonna need some help.

I hope you had a good dinner last night, Keith, and that you enjoyed your brief visit to South Texas.  It was good to see you again after all these years.

« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 12:45:33 am by Ron Boerger »

Offline ADL70

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #241 on: November 03, 2008, 10:36:08 am »
Otterbein beats Capital amd moves up 1 spot gaining but 40 votes in a week in which three or four top ten teams lose.  This week the beat Marietta (2 wins) and move up 6 spots, gain 144 points, and leapfrog # 13 and 14.    ???
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Offline dc_has_been

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #242 on: November 03, 2008, 11:04:27 am »
Well....Otterbein beat a 2-6 team in a much better conference 55-0 while CWRU beat a 2-5 team by a margin of 14 points.  Also, #14 Trinity lost & #16 Salsibury lost, plus #17 UW Stevens Point went to OT against a 3-4 team & barely got by Oshkosh.  Based upon those games it only helped them move up from 18 to 12.
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Offline tv112

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #243 on: November 03, 2008, 01:46:20 pm »
OTT plays in a tough OAC conf., Just looking at the standings this week and I see Thomas More clinched a play-off birth, but if you look at their loss it was to John Carrol, the OAC's 3rd place team by a score of 41-14. You can also look at the W&J's games and see they only beat Theil by a score of 34-24 and then look at Theil vs. Marietta where the last place OAC team beat Theil by a score of 21-18, very comparable. The OAC is pretty solid from top to bottom. There are no winless teams in the OAC this year.

Offline tv112

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #244 on: November 03, 2008, 02:09:02 pm »
Just some other OAC comparisons. 6th place Ohio Northern lost to #2 in the Nation North Central 20-3. Capital which is currently tied for 3rd in the OAC beat Adrian by a score of 34-14 which is currently 2nd MIAA at 7-1. Baldwin Wallace lost to #22 Franklin and currently #1 in the HCAC  by a score of 42-35. Some of the other conferences best teams could not go 500 in the OAC.

Offline HScoach

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #245 on: November 03, 2008, 05:13:35 pm »
^  Yup.  What he said.
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Offline jam40jeff

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #246 on: November 03, 2008, 05:25:58 pm »
I don't think cwru70 was trying to say anything about CWRU's ranking, but that it makes no sense for Otterbein to not have moved up by beating Capital so soundly.  They deserved the points they gained a week earlier, not from beating Marietta, who is a bad team no matter what conference they play in.  (And for the record, yes, the OAC is a VERY tough football conference.)

And, yes, it was quite a disappointing game from CWRU this past weekend.  Five turnovers for a team that had five total on the year coming into the game.  But I guess it was the right week to have one of those games.  They just better come ready to play these next two weeks.

Offline ADL70

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #247 on: November 03, 2008, 09:26:09 pm »
Exactly.  Nor do I deny Otterbein's claim to #12.  Just strange that they moved little by beating Capital.  Of course this past week there were losses in the 9-17 teams.
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #248 on: November 03, 2008, 11:42:47 pm »
Exactly.  Nor do I deny Otterbein's claim to #12.  Just strange that they moved little by beating Capital.  Of course this past week there were losses in the 9-17 teams.
I am confused.

Otterbein beat Marietta this week.  They gained 144 votes in the week #9 vote  as teams around them were losing.  The win over Capital in Week #8 suggested that Capital was slipping, but gave Otterbein an extra 40 votes.

I think that there may be an unconscious slotting by the voters that the #2 team in the OAC is a "#7 - #16" type of team at this time of the season.

Year.....Team......Week #9.....Final
2007Capital#12#13
2006Capital#5#3
2005ONU#19#5
2005Capital#21#19
2004Capital#16#12
2003BWC#7#3

In 2005 the voters may have "split the love" for the 2nd best team in the OAC.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 11:45:12 pm by Ralph Turner »

Offline K-Mack

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #249 on: November 04, 2008, 12:51:26 am »
Quote from: K-Mack
3 Texas teams

I'd guesstimate the chance of three Texas teams at being 20-25% tops.  UMHB and HSU are in; with Trinity's best W being against DePauw and crummy opponents (record-wise) otherwise, they really don't have the credentials that many of the other one-loss teams bring to the tables. 

Well, don't count them out just yet. I've made a list of Pool C candidates, with their loss and their significant wins, if any, and a handful of them look like Trinity. W&J, Redlands, UW-Stevens Point maybe ... RPI if they lose and drop into Pool C.

More in ATN, of course.
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Offline K-Mack

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #250 on: November 04, 2008, 01:01:41 am »
Otterbein beats Capital amd moves up 1 spot gaining but 40 votes in a week in which three or four top ten teams lose.  This week the beat Marietta (2 wins) and move up 6 spots, gain 144 points, and leapfrog # 13 and 14.    ???

I don't know if the movement in a particular poll is necessarily reflective of only that team's result that week. As silly as that might sound on the surface, it might take a few weeks for the move a team deserves to make to reflect in the poll, based on who else loses. Also, previous wins that looked very good might not look as good and for those voters who re-evaluate the whole thing, that could be a factor.

Sometimes it's a matter of who around them loses and/or spots opening up. You reference a bunch of top ten teams losing last week, but that doesn't necessarily help a team in the teens, because those teams that fall from the top 10 might not drop far enough to fall behind a team in the low teens. But if you're in the teens and a lot of teams around you in the teens lose, that could open up more spots ... and you'd move up by default, not necessarily saying your win over a bad team suddenly makes you five spots better.

With respect to Otterbein, me personally, they were a big mover because I had them 18 last week and my 11, 13, 15 and 17 lost. So while I had Case at 14 and they moved up to 12 with two spots in front of them opening up, I had Otterbein at 18 and they moved up to 13 with four teams in front of them losing.

So they gained more spots as a reflection of me revising my feelings on the teams htat lost and slotting more teams behind them rather than as a reflection of their win over Marietta.

That might not explain the leapfrogging, but it could help explain the massive point gain.
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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #251 on: November 04, 2008, 01:08:28 am »
For me it was a partial re-evaluation of my ballot. I looked at OWP and OOWP for Otterbein and Case, both unbeaten teams in the North Region, and saw Otterbein with slightly better OWP numbers. (Remember these are overall numbers, not the regional only numbers on the site for NCAA selection purposes.) But Otterbein's stronger conference is reflected in the OOWP.

For that reason, Otterbein got a big boost on my ballot to get ahead of Case.
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Offline K-Mack

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #252 on: November 04, 2008, 01:13:51 am »
Yeah, I re-evaluated Willamette a lot this week, and they didn't even play.

If voters are re-evaluting with all the available info each week, that stuff happens.
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Offline jam40jeff

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #253 on: November 04, 2008, 09:29:26 am »
Understood, and I don't think cwru70 was arguing that Otterbein shouldn't be ahead of CWRU.  In my opinion, Otterbein should have been around #10 a few weeks ago.  They look to be a very good team this year while the rest of the teams in the OAC that looked like they may be good (BW, JCU, Capital) seem to be slipping into the "average" category.

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: TOP 25
« Reply #254 on: November 04, 2008, 02:32:58 pm »
jam40jeff: Otterbein has beaten those "average" teams and also Bethany. It's not a strong schedule for either Otterbein or Case so far.

I think Case is living off 2007.
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