Author Topic: South Region Rankings and Playoffs  (Read 39454 times)

Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #135 on: February 18, 2019, 09:23:39 am »
A night after having to go to OT to defeat TLU (after TLU missed a 1-and-1 opportunity with under 30 seconds left), Austin lost at Southwestern so now probably have to win the SCAC tournament to get into the NCAAs.  The same may be true for Trinity - I don't think their resume can take another loss and still qualify for a pool C, especially should Austin lose another game and likely drop out of the regional rankings at that point.

Besides Austin, Emory unexpectedly picked up a loss at CWRU.  Everyone else won their game(s) last week.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 09:29:10 am by Ron Boerger »

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #136 on: February 18, 2019, 04:29:45 pm »
Austin is on the outside looking in, in my opinion.
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Offline jekelish

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #137 on: February 18, 2019, 07:09:49 pm »
With two losses to Southwestern, I think I agree. The other three losses are “good” losses (Millsaps, Trinity, UMHB) but those two will haunt them.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #138 on: February 20, 2019, 03:02:42 pm »
The new NCAA Division III women's basketball regional rankings are posted: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/women-regional-rankings-third
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Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #139 on: February 20, 2019, 04:44:54 pm »
The new NCAA Division III women's basketball regional rankings are posted: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/women-regional-rankings-third

   South       
1   Mary Hardin-Baylor   22-2   23-2
2   Emory & Henry   22-3   22-3
3   Texas-Dallas   21-4   21-4
4   Oglethorpe   20-5   20-5
5   Emory   18-6   18-6
6   Trinity (Texas)   19-4   21-4
7   Austin   18-5   20-5
8   Millsaps   21-4   21-4
9   Guilford   20-5   20-5

Oglethorpe beats a nobody in their only game and goes from 9th to 4th despite being 0-2 on the season against Millsaps. 
Emory and Austin stay the same despite losing a game relative to Trinity who didn't.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #140 on: February 20, 2019, 05:08:37 pm »
Come on, Ron, you know there is more going on than a single result for a single team. There are changes to the SOS, other teams winning or losing, vRRO data constantly changing, teams of that vRRO moving up and down themselves last week, etc.

While Millsaps may have beaten Oglethorpe twice, the Majors have a .477 SOS(!) and Oglethorpe has a .553! That alone can make the comparison between the two heavily favor Oglethorpe despite Millsaps' results.
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Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #141 on: February 21, 2019, 03:27:01 pm »
Millsaps .840, .750 vs RRO (3-1), .477 SOS
Oglethorpe .800, .429 vs RRO (3-4), .553 SOS

Yes, better SOS.  Also much worse vs. RROs, so they lost to four of the teams that are raising their SOS so much.   Woo. 

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #142 on: February 21, 2019, 06:15:19 pm »
Millsaps .840, .750 vs RRO (3-1), .477 SOS
Oglethorpe .800, .429 vs RRO (3-4), .553 SOS

Yes, better SOS.  Also much worse vs. RROs, so they lost to four of the teams that are raising their SOS so much.   Woo.

Break down those RRO results more -- that's what the committee does.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #143 on: February 22, 2019, 02:43:57 pm »
Millsaps .840, .750 vs RRO (3-1), .477 SOS
Oglethorpe .800, .429 vs RRO (3-4), .553 SOS

Yes, better SOS.  Also much worse vs. RROs, so they lost to four of the teams that are raising their SOS so much.   Woo.

Much worse vRRO? It isn't a percentage number. It is never represented as a WL% - get that out of your head. It won't help. It is a "who did they play, where where they ranked, etc." type of data point.

Millsaps played, so far, four games for vRRO data. They are (Week 2 rankings) #6 Austin (L 77-59 home; W 70-61 away), #8 Ogelthorpe (W 66-57 home; W 56-54 away). So, just two teams which they split with one and swept the other (that last one also used for head-to-head).

Oglethorpe has played, so far, seven  games for vRRO data. They are (Week 2 rankings) #4 Emory (W 71-64 OT away), #1 Mary Hardin-Baylor (L 79-64 neutral), #9 Rose-Hulman (W 70-56 neutral), #4 Hope (L 64-46 home), #9 Guilford (W 47-42 home), #7 Millsaps (L 66-57 away; L 56-54 home). That's SIX different opponents and just one played twice.

Now, I'm not sure if the committee would do this, but I could see it discussed: they already considered the head-to-head which gives Millsaps the advantage (two game sweep). Remove that from the vRRO conversation since it is repetitive and now Millsaps is 1-1 and Oglethorpe is 3-2.

All the other data considered, Millsaps has ONE category they excel at over Oglethorpe - head to head wins - and one they have a small advantage, WL%. Oglethorpe has a better SOS number (by a ridiculously large margin), their vRRO data is better (more diversity, better results). I am quite confident that if they went to secondary criteria, Oglethorpe would also have a better non-conference SOS (based on who they have played and Millsaps has not played - or played twice).

I still can't see Millsaps ahead of Oglethorpe and the primary criteria is giving me that realization.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #144 on: February 22, 2019, 03:47:01 pm »
Clarification - I checked with the national committee. They don't want to "double-punish/reward" a team on criteria (i.e. head-to-head and vRRO data being the same data), BUT they do not necessarily "remove" the head-to-head in a vRRO scenario and change the data.

I just wanted to be clear about that.
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #145 on: February 22, 2019, 10:22:18 pm »
ASC Semifinals

UT-D  75  HSU  64
UMHB 62 ETBU 60  (ETBU finishes 23-4; 2 losses to UT-Dallas and to UMHB each)

Offline Caz Bombers

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #146 on: February 22, 2019, 11:12:43 pm »
I suspect ETBU fans are going to be the most Mad Online on D3Hoops social media when the bracket comes out. #16 in the poll this week but not in the regional rankings and barring something completely unforeseen, not going to be in the NCAA Tournament.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #147 on: February 23, 2019, 12:00:46 am »
I suspect ETBU fans are going to be the most Mad Online on D3Hoops social media when the bracket comes out. #16 in the poll this week but not in the regional rankings and barring something completely unforeseen, not going to be in the NCAA Tournament.

No ... they won't be in the NCAA Tournament.

And they shouldn't be attacking our social media account. We don't make the decisions.
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #148 on: February 23, 2019, 08:51:12 am »
ETBU had a weak non-conference schedule. The trip to Colorado Springs for Colorado College and JWU-Denver was not productive from a regional rankings perspective.

I am not sure why there was not a game between ETBU and either Trinity and Austin College.

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