Author Topic: South Region Rankings and Playoffs  (Read 31546 times)

golden_dome

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #30 on: February 20, 2009, 10:27:30 am »
Chris, are there not enough referees for MC games that live within a 100 mile radius of Clinton?  :)
(Sorry for the "modify" on Chris' post.  I was trying to correct the punctuation on my post and accidentally hit Chris'.  His post is unchanged.)

Ralph,
   The women have had a normal year with officiating. We've had a few out of state guys but a lot of MS officials. We've gotten a lot of calls at home and we've gotten none on the road. That is normal and probably what most schools experience. We've outscored teams by 80 at the free throw line at home, and been outscored by 50 on the road.
   The men have had a unique year with a lot of out of state officals doing our home games. We've gotten very few calls at home and fewer on the road. At home we've shot and made the exact same number of free throws as our opponents, but on the road we've been outscored by 30.
    We have a lot of quality officials around here, several who do DI and DII in addition to ours. I have no idea why we have so many TX, LA and AR guys doing our games this year and would hate to speculate because there could be a legitimate reason. But I'm sure other ASC coaches would not be happy seeing us come to town with a couple MS officals doing our games, but that has often been the case for our home games this year.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2009, 12:44:45 pm by Chris Brooks »

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #31 on: February 20, 2009, 09:39:15 pm »
at DPU (Great Lakes Region) 92, Oglethorpe (South Region) 86

We Oglethorpe chasers got a gift from Greencastle.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #32 on: February 21, 2009, 08:48:31 pm »
Ralph,
The humorous thing about the refs who work the MC home games come mostly from East Texas and Louisiana.
Yeah, I guess so.  Y'all must have gotten several crews out of Texas this season.

The MissColl men lost three conference games at home this year.  That college career's worth for some recent Choctaw players!    :D

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #33 on: February 21, 2009, 09:02:51 pm »
South Region In-Region Record Overall Record

1. Oglethorpe 16-2 21-2 16-3 21-3; Lost at DePauw 86-92; plays at Centre 2/22
2. Texas-Dallas 20-2 20-3 21-3 21-4; Lost at ETBU 50-56; won at LeTU, 57-44
3. Greensboro 20-0 21-1  23-0 24-1; Won at Meredith 91-64; at Shenandoah 76-46; at CNU 75-73.
4. Roanoke 19-2 21-2 20-3 22-3;  Lost to W&L 54-65; won at EMU 87-62
5. Randolph-Macon 15-4 18-5 17-4 20-5; Won at Guilford 80-49; at E&H 71-59
6. McMurry 16-4 18-5 18-4 20-5; Won at TLU 85-64; at Schreiner 83-61.

Corrections appreciated.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2009, 10:31:22 pm by Ralph Turner »

Offline airball1

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #34 on: February 21, 2009, 10:25:39 pm »
Score correction: Depauw 92 Oglethorpe 86

Offline GuyFormerlyPSBBG

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #35 on: February 21, 2009, 11:37:52 pm »
Ralph:

Two questions:

What do you think the new regional rankings will look like? (if any changes)

If the current regional ranked teams don't win their conference tournament, who will be in as Pool C team? 

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #36 on: February 22, 2009, 12:05:55 am »
Ralph:

Two questions:

What do you think the new regional rankings will look like? (if any changes)

If the current regional ranked teams don't win their conference tournament, who will be in as Pool C team? 
Good evening, Guy.

I wish I had Patrick Abegg's list for the women!

As much as I would like to believe in Greensboro, I am very suspicious of them.

McMurry women played them last year and beat them 21 points on the road!

(We are essentially the same team, except Tarra Richardson has been replaced by a D2 transfer sophomore, Anna Berthel.  The five juniors getting big minutes last year are solid seniors in a rotation that sees 12 players getting double-digit minutes.  Altho' HPU graduated Meia Daniels, the ASC is deeper as a conference this season.)

I don't figure out the women's committee as easily as the men's.  I seem to like the women's brackets better tho'.  I also wish that the women ranked 8 teams instead of 6.

On the numbers, I think that Greensboro stays at #3.  They have no games versus regionally ranked opponents. If Greensboro had played in-region opponents such as Roanoke or Mary Washington or Marymount VA or in-region ranked opponents* from the Great Lakes Region, the Pride could make a stronger case.

Quote
In-region opponents for Greensboro from the Great Lakes Region

1. Hope 16-1 20-1
2. Thomas More 17-2 21-2
3. DePauw 13-3 19-4
4. Wash. & Jeff. 16-3 20-3
5. Transylvania 16-3 18-5
6. Capital 16-4 16-5

Massey Ratings MOV has Greensboro as #43 and behind South Region teams MissCollege, McMurry, Oglethorpe, UT-Dallas, Hardin-Simmons and Howard Payne.

As an ASC fan, I am hoping to get as many teams as we can get.  I guess that I am rooting for Greensboro to run the tourney so as not to take a Pool C bid.  As crude as it is, I think that there are 15 Pool C bids in the Regionally Ranked teams now, and Pool C sleepers from the ASC, the WIAC, the NESCAC and the SCAC.


Plain ol' Massey has Greensboro #67!   :-\
« Last Edit: February 22, 2009, 12:16:04 am by Ralph Turner »

Offline GuyFormerlyPSBBG

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #37 on: February 22, 2009, 08:58:36 am »
Ralph:
My questions weren’t directed specifically for Greensboro.  I wanted to know about the south in general.  I wasn’t trying to make a case for Greensboro.  It seems from what you wrote that Greensboro is the only regionally ranked team that doesn’t make it as a Pool C.

Since you did mention McMurry-Greensboro game from last year, I guess I will explain the difference from last year to this year.  Greensboro was missing 30.9 ppg from last year to this year.  I guess that means they would beat McMurry by 9 or 10.  Could be more from the defense those two players bring to the games.  Greensboro has 10 players that play double digit minutes, but only have 13 players on the team.

I can’t say whether Greensboro is overrated or underrated because it isn’t up to me.  Greensboro will just play and answer that on the court.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #38 on: February 22, 2009, 09:39:56 am »
Thanks for the response and let me try again. (Sorry I misunderstood the question.)

Ralph:

Two questions:

What do you think the new regional rankings will look like? (if any changes)

I think that the Regional Rankings look like this on Wednesday.

1) Oglethorpe
2) Greensboro
3) UT-Dallas  (Maybe UTD falls after the ETBU loss.)
4) RMC
5) Roanoke
6) McMurry


If the current regional ranked teams don't win their conference tournament, who will be in as Pool C team? 

Pool C's who make the tourney if they lose in the conference tourney finals.

Oglethorpe  (8-team tourney SCAC)
Greensboro  (two games in the USAC)
UTD             (8-team tourney in the ASC)
RMC             (three games in the ODAC)
Roanoke       (three games in the ODAC)
McMurry       (8-team tourney in the ASC)



Offline nash

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #39 on: February 22, 2009, 02:02:16 pm »
Ralph,  I have a couple of questions about the regional rankings.  First, (and I know that the OWP and OOWP figure in) but let's look at MC and McM against the same opponents in the ASC.  MC is 17-3 and McM is 17-4.  That's says MC is the better team and should be ranked over McM.  I know you are going to say that McM beat MC but look at the losses:  MC split with UTD, lost to HPU and McM; McM lost to UTD, split with HPU, HSU and CTX.  The difference is CTX, MC beat them by 19 points when the best that McM could do was split games.
Second:  Do you think that MC is not good enough to be ranked regionally?
Lastly:  Ralph are you the person on the regional ranking committee from the ASC who is keeping McM ranked so they can get a bid. 
As I stated earlier the only way MC will get to the NCAA tournament is to win the ASC tournament otherwise the committee will pick who it wants.

golden_dome

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #40 on: February 22, 2009, 02:53:18 pm »
Thanks for the response and let me try again. (Sorry I misunderstood the question.)

Ralph:

Two questions:

What do you think the new regional rankings will look like? (if any changes)

I think that the Regional Rankings look like this on Wednesday.

1) Oglethorpe
2) Greensboro
3) UT-Dallas  (Maybe UTD falls after the ETBU loss.)
4) RMC
5) Roanoke
6) McMurry


If the current regional ranked teams don't win their conference tournament, who will be in as Pool C team? 

Pool C's who make the tourney if they lose in the conference tourney finals.

Oglethorpe  (8-team tourney SCAC)
Greensboro  (two games in the USAC)
UTD             (8-team tourney in the ASC)
RMC             (three games in the ODAC)
Roanoke       (three games in the ODAC)
McMurry       (8-team tourney in the ASC)



Ralph,
   I don't see any way in which McMurry stays ahead of MS College in this week's ranking. MC will have a significant edge in the win/loss record (which I think should carry more weight than it apparently does), but should also have a better strength of schedule considering MC played two tough opponents and McMurry played two bad ones. Playing a 1-23 Schreiner team to end the season should damage McMurry's OWP number.
   I have a question though. Do you know the calculation the NCAA uses to come up with the RPI using win/loss record, the OWP and the OOWP? I haven't seen it published anywhere.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #41 on: February 22, 2009, 03:37:28 pm »
Ralph,  I have a couple of questions about the regional rankings.  First, (and I know that the OWP and OOWP figure in) but let's look at MC and McM against the same opponents in the ASC.  MC is 17-3 and McM is 17-4.  That's says MC is the better team and should be ranked over McM.  I know you are going to say that McM beat MC but look at the losses:  MC split with UTD, lost to HPU and McM; McM lost to UTD, split with HPU, HSU and CTX.  The difference is CTX, MC beat them by 19 points when the best that McM could do was split games.


Second:  Do you think that MC is not good enough to be ranked regionally?

Lastly:  Ralph are you the person on the regional ranking committee from the ASC who is keeping McM ranked so they can get a bid.
 
As I stated earlier the only way MC will get to the NCAA tournament is to win the ASC tournament otherwise the committee will pick who it wants.

Let's take the last question first.

Handbook, page 9 has the national committee members.  Page 39 has the Regional Committee members.  Nope, not me.  ;)  :) 

All of the answers are in the Handbook.

First question next...

Here are the criteria that the committee uses in their weekly ranking session.  (Handbook pp 16.)

Quote
Selection Criteria.

Primary Criteria

The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA
championships); all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
- Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OWP).
- Opponents’ Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
• See Appendix F for explanation of OWP and OOWP calculations.
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results versus common regional opponents.
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.
Note:
• Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at the time of the
rankings/selection process only.
• Conference postseason contests are included.
• Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and
fourth years shall count in the primary criteria. Provisional and reclassifying
members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selection.

Secondary Criteria

If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary
criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority
order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-of-region Division III and all
other opponents including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e.,
provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).
• Out-of-region head-to-head competition.
• Overall Division III win-loss percentage.
• Results versus common non Division III opponents.
• Results versus all Division III ranked teams.
• Overall win-loss percentage.
• Results versus all common opponents.
• Overall DIII Strength of Schedule.
• Should a committee find that evaluation of a team’s win-loss percentage
during the last 25 percent of the season is applicable (i.e., end of
season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval from the
championships committee.
Additionally, input is provided by regional advisory committees for consideration by
the women’s basketball committee. In order to be considered for selection for Pools B or
C, an institution must play at least 50 percent of its competition against Division III inregion
opponents. Coaches’ polls and/or any other outside polls or rankings are not used
as a selection criterion by the women’s basketball committee for selection purposes.

Margin of victory, Massey ratings and D3hoops.com Top 25 are not part of the criteria.

Second question last...

Yes I think that MC is good enough to be ranked regionally. (In the eyes of the committee, they are probably 7th.) My complaint with the women's committee is that they only rank 6, (publicly, whether that is the case or not.)  I wish that they would rank 15% of the teams in a region as they do in many other sports.  In fact, I don't think that the ASC gets enough respect by virtue of how hard it is to schedule non-conference in-region teams when the conference mandates single round-robin inter-division/double round-robin intra-division schedules at the conference's direction.  Those mandated dates eliminate opportunities to play quality in-region games in November, December and early January.  I think that MissColl assembled a very good schedule.  To make it better, I recommend bringing in quality opponents like UMHB did (Baldwin-Wallace and Southern Maine) and as McMurry, HPU, and HSU has done with Southwestern and Trinity in the past.  Millsaps and MC or LaColl and MC could bring in-region opponents from the OAC or the Michigan IAA or the HCAC to boost the OOWP/OWP.

As for the 17-3/17-4 that is mandated by the ASC, get your AD and both of your head coaches to change the "mandated" 20/21 game schedule.  I agree that we will probably end up playing 20/21 games most years, just don't mandate the dates which take those dates off the schedule as possible dates for your coaches to pick better games. 

This is the real crux of the conference.  SRSU, Schreiner and TLU need the games, as I suppose UOzarks and LaCollege need the games, too.  We play the mandated 20-21.  Dec 4th Dec 6th is off the table at dates for non-conference games.

Replacing SU (1-24) and TLU (7-18) with a road trip to Maryville TN (16-8) and Emory (12-10) really improves the OWP/OOWP.  That change in mandated 20/21 to something more flexible and probably won't happen, because that decision is made at the presidents' level.

While we are talking presidents, let's split the conference in half.

That would take about 7 new sports at about 4 schools to achieve.  (I have my notes at home.) Then, the "ASC" has 2 Pool A bids in M/W Soccer, Volleyball, M/W Basketball, M/W Tennis, Baseball, and Softball!  And most of those sports are very inexpensive sports to add (Cross country, Tennis, Track and Field), or add women's sports like volleyball.   :)
« Last Edit: February 22, 2009, 03:47:43 pm by Ralph Turner »

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #42 on: February 22, 2009, 03:41:43 pm »
Thanks for the response and let me try again. (Sorry I misunderstood the question.)

Ralph:

Two questions:

What do you think the new regional rankings will look like? (if any changes)

I think that the Regional Rankings look like this on Wednesday.

1) Oglethorpe
2) Greensboro
3) UT-Dallas  (Maybe UTD falls after the ETBU loss.)
4) RMC
5) Roanoke
6) McMurry


If the current regional ranked teams don't win their conference tournament, who will be in as Pool C team? 

Pool C's who make the tourney if they lose in the conference tourney finals.

Oglethorpe  (8-team tourney SCAC)
Greensboro  (two games in the USAC)
UTD             (8-team tourney in the ASC)
RMC             (three games in the ODAC)
Roanoke       (three games in the ODAC)
McMurry       (8-team tourney in the ASC)



Ralph,
   I don't see any way in which McMurry stays ahead of MS College in this week's ranking. MC will have a significant edge in the win/loss record (which I think should carry more weight than it apparently does), but should also have a better strength of schedule considering MC played two tough opponents and McMurry played two bad ones. Playing a 1-23 Schreiner team to end the season should damage McMurry's OWP number.
   I have a question though. Do you know the calculation the NCAA uses to come up with the RPI using win/loss record, the OWP and the OOWP? I haven't seen it published anywhere.
Hi Chris, OWP/OOWP are in Appendix G of the Handbook.  :)

golden_dome

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #43 on: February 22, 2009, 03:51:24 pm »
Hi Chris, OWP/OOWP are in Appendix G of the Handbook.  :)

Ralph,
   I know how to get the OWP and the OOWP numbers. But do you know if the NCAA uses a formula to come up with an RPLI from the win/loss pct., the OWP and the OOWP. I'm also glad the QOWI is gone but it did produce a number the committee's almost always went with. I wonder if the committees are seeing a similiar RPI number now.

   I ask because with the QOWI number carried a lot of value, and other criteria such as head to head, or record against region were only used if the QOWI numbers were very close. I would think a similiar RPI number is being produced from the win/loss pct, OWP and OOWP, and the other criteria brought into play if the number is very close.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Rankings and Playoffs
« Reply #44 on: February 22, 2009, 04:01:58 pm »
Chris MC's OWP .495; OOWP .498 thru all games.

McMurry's is .513 and .498 before the SU game.

The Strength of Schedule calculation that D3hoops.com has figured (and it may not be an official statistic) is 226 for MC and 173 for McM (without the SU game.)

I don't know how those numbers are being used.  I hope that that will be covered in a Hoopsville interview.  :)