Author Topic: NCAA Tournament  (Read 55561 times)

Online Ralph Turner

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #480 on: March 20, 2013, 09:11:30 pm »
Let's look at the final DePauw margin of victory as a ratio.

They scored 1.3529 times as many points as UWW in the 69-51 game.

Capital only scored 1.3015 times as many point as WUSTL.

I agree about the 1999-2000 Lady Bears. 

Why shucks, those Lady Bears gotta be meaner than any Mama Grizzly that Sarah Palin as ever seen.  LOL


Offline mark_reichert

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #481 on: March 20, 2013, 11:13:28 pm »
Let's look at the final DePauw margin of victory as a ratio.

They scored 1.3529 times as many points as UWW in the 69-51 game.

Capital only scored 1.3015 times as many point as WUSTL.

Well, as math major, I'd want to do more analysis of the incremental value of each additional point in higher and lower scoring games to see if that holds up as a valid method. ::)  (I'd have used a nerd smiley if one was available.)

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I agree about the 1999-2000 Lady Bears. 

Why shucks, those Lady Bears gotta be meaner than any Mama Grizzly that Sarah Palin as ever seen.  LOL

Well, if DePauw storms to another championship next year, I'll be happy to give them their due, but I'm not holding my breath.  Among past champions, Amherst returned to the final four semifinal to lose to George Fox, WashU returned the championship game to lose to Amherst, DePauw lost to Whitewater in a sectional final (ha, revenge must have been sweet for some fans this year), Howard Payne and Hope lost in the first round, and the rest didn't make it back to the tournament.

Amherst has been in five consecutive final fours.  Is that a record?  Shall I snark about the difference between the midwest and the northeast in the tournament?

And I was right about that Hope fans shouldn't be messing with their karma by prematurely declaring historical greatness.  The last seven years must have been rough.  WashU fans know the mixed blessing of losing to that year's champion (Hope did 2008-10) all too well, but not having been in any position to host the Final Four, we don't know Hope's particular frustration at all.  They'll have to talk to Illinois Wesleyan about that.

Online Ralph Turner

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #482 on: March 20, 2013, 11:30:33 pm »
HPU lost their coach to a D-2 program closer to his home in Iowa after winning the National Championship.

Here is an excerpt from the bio of Coach Kielsmeier at Wayne State (Nebraska).

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The 2012-13 season marks the fifth year for Chris Kielsmeier as head women's basketball coach at Wayne State College.  In four seasons with the Wildcats, Kielsmeier has guided the team to a 99-25 record, including a 69-15 mark in the Northern Sun Conference, along with two NSIC regular season titles, two NSIC Sanford Health Tournament titles and three straight trips to the NCAA Division II National Tournament.  In his 12 seasons as a head coach, Kielsmeier owns a career record of 278-69 and has advanced to the NCAA Tournament seven times.

The Wildcats recorded the team's most successful season in school history under Kielsmeier in 2011-12, recording a 32-3 overall record while winning a second straight Northern Sun Conference regular season title with a 20-2 league mark.

Online Ralph Turner

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #483 on: March 20, 2013, 11:34:12 pm »
I agree with you about Amherst having an easier run than the rest of the country.  I think that a top seed from that part of the country gets no competition from the #16, #8/#9 winner, then maybe even the #4/#5/#12/#13 winner.

I also believe that there are so few travel restrictions in that part of the country that you do not have the "brackets of death" in the rest of the country.  You can build a bracket that looks seeded "correctly".

Offline gordonmann

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #484 on: March 21, 2013, 10:11:03 pm »
Having that many teams nearby definitely makes it easier to pair the top NE teams with a "lower seed" in the first round. Once you get to the second weekend, that advantage disipates a little. Amherst had to beat Tufts who I think would be competitive with the central and great lakes teams. Remember that the Jumbos pushed St. Thomas to the limit last year.

Offline mark_reichert

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #485 on: March 22, 2013, 05:40:02 pm »
Having that many teams nearby definitely makes it easier to pair the top NE teams with a "lower seed" in the first round. Once you get to the second weekend, that advantage disipates a little. Amherst had to beat Tufts who I think would be competitive with the central and great lakes teams. Remember that the Jumbos pushed St. Thomas to the limit last year.

Yeah, I've seen Tufts in the Top 25 routinely.  I wasn't implying that Amherst had a cake walk each of the last five years.  For that matter, all of the eastern teams that have made frequent trips to the final four have had to beat some competitive team(s) to get there, I just think it's easier if you don't start running into ranked teams in the second, or maybe even first, round.

And as for rehashing my conflict in the MIAA board, I love their enthusiasm, I'd love to have been part of a rivalry like Hope has with Calvin, but I think their fandom is or was a bit insular.   Even flush with a national championship, keeping some perspective would be nice.

Offline gordonmann

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #486 on: March 24, 2013, 09:09:34 pm »
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I just think it's easier if you don't start running into ranked teams in the second, or maybe even first, round.

Absolutely.

Online Ralph Turner

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #487 on: March 25, 2013, 12:16:08 am »
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I just think it's easier if you don't start running into ranked teams in the second, or maybe even first, round.

Absolutely.
But with the decline of Southern Maine, the NESCAC is about the only strength in the Northeast.

In the middle of the last decade, you had diverse strength in the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic (but no one got a national championship), the Great Lakes, the South, the Central and the West.

2001 Washington U.         UAA/Central
2002 UW-Stevens Point   WIAC/ Central 
2003 Trinity, Texas           SCAC/South
2004 Wilmington             OAC/Great Lakes
2005 Millikin                    CCIW/Central
2006 Hope                      MIAA/Great Lakes
2007 DePauw                  SCAC/Great Lakes
2008 Howard Payne         ASC/South
2009 George Fox             NWC/West
2010 Washington U.         UAA/Central
2011 Amherst                  NESCAC/Northeast
2012 Illinois Wesleyan       CCIW/Central
2013 DePauw                   NCAC/Great Lakes

Only one national champion from the Northeast/East/Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic. IMHO, the strength in women's hoops has been west of the Appalachians.   :)

Online Ralph Turner

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #488 on: March 31, 2013, 06:30:57 pm »
Meanwhile over at the NAIA tournament...


Westmont (California)  71, Lee (Tennessee) 65,

but the real story is here.

For your reading enjoyment.

Offline 7express

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #489 on: August 27, 2013, 06:44:59 pm »
USM hasn't declined that much.  I mean last year they only lost once in the regular season, but unfortunately played by far their worst game of the season in the tournament against Smith.
Tufts being in the East actually hurt them last year, imo.  If they get a Midwest/great lake team (besides DePauw) they get  to the final 4.  Nobody was beating DePauw last year, but if the Jumbos get sent outside of Amherst they would have made a lot further run then they did.
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Offline Roundball999

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #490 on: August 27, 2013, 09:17:13 pm »
USM hasn't declined that much.  I mean last year they only lost once in the regular season, but unfortunately played by far their worst game of the season in the tournament against Smith.
Tufts being in the East actually hurt them last year, imo.  If they get a Midwest/great lake team (besides DePauw) they get  to the final 4.  Nobody was beating DePauw last year, but if the Jumbos get sent outside of Amherst they would have made a lot further run then they did.

As a follower of Hope, Calvin, Whitewater and a few other Midwest/Great Lakes teams, I'd have to disagree that Tufts was a shoo-in to be a Final Four team had they been outside the Northeast.  There are a lot of great teams outside the Northeast that battle night in and night out with very strong schedules.  It serves them well come tournament time, where the SoS really gets the teams ready to go deep in the tournament.

Offline 7express

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #491 on: March 03, 2014, 02:06:55 am »
My final Pool C picks.  I think last year I got 7 or 8 wrong, so hopefully I can do a tad better this year:

Teams that are locks:
1) Amherst
2) Whitewater
3) Bowdoin
4) Whitworth
5) St. Mary's (MN)

Teams that should be in:
6) Hartwick
7) Christopher Newport
8) George Fox
9) Williams

Teams that probably get in:
10) Concordia-Moorhead
1) Maryville (TN)
12) Eastern Mennonite
13) Illinois Wesleyan
14) Baldwin Wallace
15) John Carroll
16) Catholic

Last 4 in, not necessarily in this order
17) Moravian
18) Ohio Northern
19) NYU
20) Olivet

First 4 out, not necessarily in this order:
21) Roger Williams
22) Wheaton (IL)
23) Cornell
24) Lebanon Valley

I really wanted to put Cornell in the field, but it looks like Wheaton is going to be the blocker in that region.  NYU is in good shape as they'll be the second East rep on the board after Hartwick and I think Hartwick will get taken in the top 10, so NYU should be on the board for quite a while.  I think the divider does come down somewhere between Olivet/Roger Williams/and NYU.  I wouldn't be totally shocked if RWU replaced 1 of those 2 teams in the field.
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Offline 7express

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #492 on: March 09, 2014, 03:10:00 am »
Here's my predictions for the 4 hosts for next weekend:

Upper left: Montclair State.  I think they have slightly better numbers than Scranton & Florham.
Bottom left: Tufts.  Like Scranton, I think they have slightly better numbers than Ithaca, and went 2-0 vs. Amherst this year, won the NESCAC regular season & conference title, so that should give the Jumbos the advantage over the Jeffs.
Upper right: DePauw.  Carthage & Whitewater can make compelling cases, but DePauw was the best team for most of the season, and they'll get the edge.
Bottom right: Whitman.  What an absolute mess this turned out to be.  Had the favorites Ferrum & Rhodes won, it would've been at Thomas More easily since Rhodes & Ferrum both checked in at under 500 miles to Thomas More, and the NCAA would've only had to fly Whitman east.  As it stands now, NONE of the 4 teams remaining in this half are within 500 miles of each other, so no matter which site they go to, the NCAA will have to pay for 3 flights regardless.  So, why not go out West??  The NWC has been very underrated this year, and since you have to fly all 3 teams regardless (Newport to Thomas More is 582 miles), why not give the West coast some love and give them a regional semifinal and final??  Even though they finished undefeated, Thomas More was only 3rd in the Great Lakes rankings, while Whitman checked in at #1 in the West,
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Offline d3wbbfan

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #493 on: March 09, 2014, 06:46:12 am »
7express, I just watched the Whitman post-game NCAA presser. Coach Michelle Ferenz said that Whitman already knows that there is absolutely no chance that they will be hosting games next weekend. Since Whitman WBB also advanced to the Sweet 16 last year, she said she expects to be told where they will be heading to, in just a couple of hours, however. Since they are out west, she said the NCAA already knew who the other 15 advancing teams were, by the time their game vs Whitworth had even tipped off. Therefore, phone calls/arrangements were already being made, as to establishing the 4 Sweet 16/Elite 8 host sites, while their game was in progress. And that the winner of their pod (which we now know to be Whitman) would just be plugged in, as "the last domino", as it were. Ferenz said that last year she was told privately that her team was going out to Williams (MA) only a few hours after they won at Lewis & Clark last March. And she doesn't see any reason why it wouldn't be playing out that way for her again this season, even though a formal NCAA announcement may not come until Monday. 

Offline ronk

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Re: NCAA Tournament
« Reply #494 on: March 09, 2014, 09:36:04 am »
 Was hoping that Baldwin-Wallace was 500+ miles to Montclair St, so that Scranton would be the STRONG geographical choice to hold their sectional, but it's approximately 450 miles, so the NCAA can still hold it in Northern NJ.