Author Topic: Multiple Conference Bids?  (Read 6667 times)

Offline BigPoppa

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Multiple Conference Bids?
« on: April 20, 2009, 01:04:45 pm »
Anybody want to weigh in on which conferences may get two or more bids (not assuming any upsets in the conference tourneys)? Here's a start:

CCIW- Carthage and Illinois Wesleyan (both locks)
MIAC- St. Thomas(lock) and St. Olaf (maybe?)
SCIAC- Pomona-Pitzer (lock) and Cal Lutheran (maybe?)
NWC- Pacific Lutheran, Linfield and George Fox (Two locks, possibly a third... not sure which yet.)

Please add other conferences that may get two or more...
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2009, 01:22:35 pm »
I am awaiting the release of the first Regional Rankings.  (Of course that is cheating, but what the hey!   :D )

Offline BigPoppa

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2009, 01:25:54 pm »
I am awaiting the release of the first Regional Rankings.  (Of course that is cheating, but what the hey!   :D )

I was trying to wait as well, but it is like a Christmas catalog showing up and my mom giving me a marker to circle what I want. The possibilities are endless right now :)
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coachmilburn

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2009, 02:06:18 pm »
USA-South :

NCW  locked in with Conference title over Shenandoah.

At-large bid contenders : Shenandoah, CNU and MU.  I think SU's run in the Conference tourney has to have a lot of weight in them getting a nod for the at-large bid.  One would think that MU hurt themselves by going 0-2.  CNU has 7 big games left on their schedule.

Offline RSSmith

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2009, 04:02:44 pm »
Little East Conference:  Southern Maine and Eastern Connecticut
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2009, 04:17:48 pm »
USA-South :

NCW  locked in with Conference title over Shenandoah.

At-large bid contenders : Shenandoah, CNU and MU.  I think SU's run in the Conference tourney has to have a lot of weight in them getting a nod for the at-large bid.  One would think that MU hurt themselves by going 0-2.  CNU has 7 big games left on their schedule.
Not trying to pick on Milby, but the real "weight" that goes with SU's run in the tournament is:

Results in In-region games:  3 wins and 2 losses.
Results versus "regionally ranked" teams:  (assuming that NCWC is regionally ranked) 1 win and 2 losses.

The problem with post-season tourneys is that sometimes they inflict more damage on the regional records than what the schools gain in participating.  SU may not have hurt themselves.  At 3-2, Shenandoah's regional record took a hit, going only .600 in the USAC tourney.

I see four types of outcomes from the post-season tourneys:

1)  Cinderella knocks off the very strong team and gets the Pool A bid that they did not win in the regular season.

2)  The very strong team stumbles in the post-season and gets a back-door Pool C bid anyway.

3)  The "almost team" cannot knock off the really strong team and gets knocked off the bubble by some other strong team that was upset.

4)  No tournament and the conference doesn't inflict extra in-region losses on itself.  A team sneaks into the Pool C bid, e.g. George Fox in 2008 at 24-8.

Rarely does one of the 35 conferences have "co-strong" teams, e.g., the NJAC or the LEC or the WIAC.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2009, 04:30:02 pm by Ralph Turner »

Offline Jim Dixon

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2009, 05:36:00 pm »

4)  No tournament and the conference doesn't inflict extra in-region losses on itself.  A team sneaks into the Pool C bid, e.g. George Fox in 2008 at 24-8.


You are right, George Fox and Linfield are not both in the playoffs with a NWC tounament

OshDude

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2009, 06:26:25 pm »
USA-South :

NCW  locked in with Conference title over Shenandoah.

At-large bid contenders : Shenandoah, CNU and MU.  I think SU's run in the Conference tourney has to have a lot of weight in them getting a nod for the at-large bid.  One would think that MU hurt themselves by going 0-2.  CNU has 7 big games left on their schedule.
Not trying to pick on Milby, but the real "weight" that goes with SU's run in the tournament is:

Results in In-region games:  3 wins and 2 losses.
Results versus "regionally ranked" teams:  (assuming that NCWC is regionally ranked) 1 win and 2 losses.

The problem with post-season tourneys is that sometimes they inflict more damage on the regional records than what the schools gain in participating.  SU may not have hurt themselves.  At 3-2, Shenandoah's regional record took a hit, going only .600 in the USAC tourney.

I see four types of outcomes from the post-season tourneys:

1)  Cinderella knocks off the very strong team and gets the Pool A bid that they did not win in the regular season.

2)  The very strong team stumbles in the post-season and gets a back-door Pool C bid anyway.

3)  The "almost team" cannot knock off the really strong team and gets knocked off the bubble by some other strong team that was upset.

4)  No tournament and the conference doesn't inflict extra in-region losses on itself.  A team sneaks into the Pool C bid, e.g. George Fox in 2008 at 24-8.

Rarely does one of the 35 conferences have "co-strong" teams, e.g., the NJAC or the LEC or the WIAC.
Another wrench is many of the stronger Pool B teams are from Shenandoah's area.

coachmilburn

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2009, 07:11:54 pm »
The other USA-South "at-large" contenders breakdown : these numbers are NOT official by any means as I tried to figure out some stuff so far ... please anyone be more than happy to verify these numbers. 

As of today, April 21st @ 12:40pm, is very much "UNOFFICIAL" ...

Shenandoah University :
25-7 "in-region" .781%  (corrected, I missed FC tourney game, I previously had 24 wins)

0-2 vs. MU
1-1 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. AV
2-1 vs. FC  (corrected, I missed the tourney game)
1-0 vs. GC
2-3 vs. NCW
=========
8-7 vs. USA-South overall (corrected)
8-5 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU (corrected)
7-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU (corrected)

(.722%) 13-5 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.666%) 12-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

Shenandoah's "in-region" opponents OWP = 332-276-5  (.5415986%)
I did not include the games with SU and it was their opponents "overall" record.



Methodist University :
16-10 "in-region" .615%  (correction, included Albertus Magnus College 2wins by mistake)

2-0 vs. SU
1-2 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. GC
0-2 vs. NCW
0-1 vs. AV
1-1 vs. FC
=========
6-6 vs. USA-South overall
4-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-4 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU

(.500%) 7-7 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.600%) 9-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

MU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 249-210-3  (.538961%)
I did not include the games with MU and it was their opponents "overall" record.


Christopher Newport University :
17-9 "in-region" .653%

1-1 vs. SU
2-1 vs. MU
1-2 vs. NCW
2-1 vs. AV
0-1 vs. FC
1-1 vs. GC
=========
7-7 vs. USA-South overall
6-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU

(.555%) 10-8 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.529%) 9-8 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

CNU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 238-191-2  (.5522051%)
I did not include the games with CNU and it was their opponents "overall" record.


Not sure how much "tighter" you can get than that?   

By no means am I stating these numbers are 100% accurate, I already discovered a mistake MU's "in-region" record that I included 2wins.  I would not be surprised IF they might be an error here or there.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2009, 12:52:08 pm by Milby »

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2009, 08:12:15 pm »
The other USA-South "at-large" contenders breakdown : these numbers are NOT official by any means as I tried to figured out some stuff so far ... please anyone be more than happy to verify these numbers. 

As of today, April 20th @ 7pm an is very much "UNOFFICIAL" ...

Shenandoah University :
24-7 "in-region" .774%

0-2 vs. MU
1-1 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. AV
1-1 vs. FC
1-0 vs. GC
2-3 vs. NCW
=========
7-7 vs. USA-South overall
7-5 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU
6-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU

(.722%) 13-5 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.666%) 12-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"



Methodist University :
18-10 "in-region" .642%

2-0 vs. SU
1-2 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. GC
0-2 vs. NCW
0-1 vs. AV
1-1 vs. FC
=========
6-6 vs. USA-South overall
4-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-4 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU

(.500%) 7-7 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.600%) 9-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"


Christopher Newport University :
17-9 "in-region" .653%

1-1 vs. SU
2-1 vs. MU
1-2 vs. NCW
2-1 vs. AV
0-1 vs. FC
1-1 vs. GC
=========
7-7 vs. USA-South overall
6-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU

(.555%) 10-8 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.529%) 9-8 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"


Not sure how much "tighter" you can get than that?   Does anyone want to tackle the OWP and OOWP?
I think that Shenandoah has the edge on the rest of the USAC.  If they are ahead of them in the South Regional Rankings, I really don't think that they catch them.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2009, 08:36:39 pm »
Shenandoah's "in-region" opponents OWP = 332-276-5  (.5415986%)

I did not include the games with SU and it was their opponents "overall" record.

The formula is at the back of the Handbook in Appendix B.

http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/baseball/2009/3_baseball_handbook.pdf

OshDude

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2009, 11:17:20 pm »
Shenandoah's "in-region" opponents OWP = 332-276-5  (.5415986%)

I did not include the games with SU and it was their opponents "overall" record.

The formula is at the back of the Handbook in Appendix B.

http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/baseball/2009/3_baseball_handbook.pdf
Average all opponents' in-region winning percentages, not the raw numbers.

coachmilburn

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2009, 12:50:52 pm »
The other USA-South "at-large" contenders breakdown : these numbers are NOT official by any means as I tried to figure out some stuff so far ... please anyone be more than happy to verify these numbers. 

As of today, April 21st @ 12:40pm, is very much "UNOFFICIAL" ...

Shenandoah University :
25-7 "in-region" .781%  (corrected, I missed the FC tourney game, I previously had 24 wins)

0-2 vs. MU
1-1 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. AV
2-1 vs. FC  (corrected, I missed the tourney game)
1-0 vs. GC
2-3 vs. NCW
=========
8-7 vs. USA-South overall (corrected)
8-5 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU (corrected)
7-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU (corrected)

(.705%) 12-5 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head" (corrected)

(.666%) 12-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

Shenandoah's "in-region" opponents OWP = 332-276-5  (.5415986%)
I did not include the games with SU and it was their opponents "overall" record.



Methodist University :
16-10 "in-region" .615%  (correction, included Albertus Magnus College 2wins by mistake)

2-0 vs. SU
1-2 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. GC
0-2 vs. NCW
0-1 vs. AV
1-1 vs. FC
=========
6-6 vs. USA-South overall
4-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-4 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU

(.500%) 7-7 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.600%) 9-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

MU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 249-210-3  (.538961%)
I did not include the games with MU and it was their opponents "overall" record.


Christopher Newport University :
17-9 "in-region" .653%

1-1 vs. SU
2-1 vs. MU
1-2 vs. NCW
2-1 vs. AV
0-1 vs. FC
1-1 vs. GC
=========
7-7 vs. USA-South overall
6-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU

(.555%) 10-8 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

(.529%) 9-8 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"

CNU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 238-191-2  (.5522051%)
I did not include the games with CNU and it was their opponents "overall" record.


Not sure how much "tighter" you can get than that?   

By no means am I stating these numbers are 100% accurate ... I would not be surprised IF they might be an error here or there.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2009, 01:29:10 pm by Milby »

OshDude

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2009, 05:55:25 am »
Shenandoah's "in-region" opponents OWP = 332-276-5  (.5415986%)
I did not include the games with SU and it was their opponents "overall" record.
That's not how you calculate OWP. You need every in-region opponents' in-region winning percentages (minus the results against the team for which you're calculating OWP). Average all in-region winning percentages to get OWP; don't use the raw numbers. See Appendix B of the Handbook.

Offline BaseballFan

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Re: Multiple Conference Bids?
« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2009, 11:02:38 am »
Shenandoah's "in-region" opponents OWP = 332-276-5  (.5415986%)
I did not include the games with SU and it was their opponents "overall" record.
That's not how you calculate OWP. You need every in-region opponents' in-region winning percentages (minus the results against the team for which you're calculating OWP). Average all in-region winning percentages to get OWP; don't use the raw numbers. See Appendix B of the Handbook.

Oshdude is correct your OWPs are wrong, you dont take the total wins/total losses and get a %. You take each individual % and average the %s. Except with each individual % you subtract your wins and losses against that team.