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Author Topic: 2009 Tournament Field (Size / AQs / Pool B / Pool C)  (Read 1767 times)
Flying Weasel
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« on: September 23, 2009, 11:41:47 am »

The lead story on d3soccer.com the other day Tournament fields expand, but not all the news is good said the number of Pool C at-large berths would likely go down this year despite the tournament field expanding by one.
Quote
But the men are projected to get just 16 Pool C bids this year, after getting 17 last year. The final field setup will be determined after Sept. 30, when the handful of schools in both the NAIA and NCAA must declare which tournament they'll make themselves eligible for. There are 39 automatic bids for the men's tournament. Four bids would be set aside for teams not in those 39 conferences, and the rest are Pool C bids, truly at-large selections.
I'm wondering if I'm the only one who was left scrathcing there head with this conclusion. 

I'm not sure where the 4 Pool B berths come from?  The number of Pool B berths is determined based on a calculation which last year yielded 3 berths.  Now this year there are even less Pool B schools with the Landmark getting their AQ, so why would there be more berths for less schools?  I think the Pool B berths will actually drop to 2 and the Pool C berths will rise to 18 this year.

Below is how I arrived at that conclusion, following pages 13-14 of the 2008 Division III Men's Soccer Championship Handbook (pdf).  The 2009 handbook hasn't been released yet, that's why I cite the 2008 manual, but the the new 2009-10 D-III Manual gives the same method for calculating the number of Pool B berths as in past years.  The men's soccer committee decides what the size of the tournament field will be, but how that field is divided between AQ, Pool B, and Pool C is established on a D-III wide basis.

2009 Division III Men’s Soccer Sponsorship Data:
Division III institutions sponsoring men's soccer: 404*
Provisional institutions (not eligible for the championship): 13
Declared NAIA (not eligible for the NCAA championship): 2
Reclassifying institution (not eligible for the NCAA championship): 4**
Institutions eligible for NCAA championship: 385***
Conferences meeting automatic qualifying requirements: 39
Eligible teams in automatic-qualifying conferences (Pool A): 359
Eligible Pool B teams: 26***
Access ratio: 1:9.205 (eligible teams in AQ conferences / # of AQ conferences)

Based on the sponsorship data, the following allocations will be implemented for the
2009 championship:

Bracket: 59 teams (based on 2008 eligible institutions (384) / 6.5)
Pool A: 39 teams
Pool B: 2 teams (# Pool B teams / Access ratio) <--Note: always rounded down
Pool C: 18 teams (Field size - Pool A - Pool B)

*Depending on whether the schools in the reclassification process to D-II are still considered D-III programs this could range from 401 to 404. I can't figure out the basis for this determination as I've seen reclassifying schools included and not included. The summary of the regional realignement for 2009 does not include Maryville-St. Louis at all, but lists CSU-East Bay as a tournament eligible Pool B school and Lincoln as an ineligble Pool B school due to reclassification. These types of inconsistencies/error are somewhat common for the NCAA publications (at least D-III men's soccer). So I'm not sure the release of the 2009 D-III Men's Soccer Championship Handbook will provide any clarity as last year's handbook still listed Maryville as an eligible Pool A school and CSU-East Bay as an eligble Pool B school despite both being in the reclassification process to D-II which I believe meant they were ineligible.
**Birmingham Southern is entering D-III and Lincoln, Maryville-St.Louis, CSU-East Bay are leaving for D-II. See (*) above.
***does not include CSU-East Bay which is reclassifying to D-II (or any other reclassifying schools). See (*) above.
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DIIIdad
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2009, 12:11:36 pm »

I think the part that confuses things is:

"The final field setup will be determined after Sept. 30, when the handful of schools in both the NAIA and NCAA must declare which tournament they'll make themselves eligible for."



I'm not sure what a "handful" means, but doesn't it seem like such a decision should be made prior to the start of the season? 
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Flying Weasel
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2009, 02:00:50 pm »

In past years two schools (Menlo e Northland) have opted out of the D-III tournament in favor of the NAIA.  Not sure how many more have the choice and have been opting for the D-III tournament.  But my calculations are based on everyone except those two being in the the D-III pool. If both of them would change things up and opt for the D-III tournament, that would bring the # of Pool B schools to 28, just enough to get one more Pool B berth, that is, 3 berths.  Just one switching up wouldn't be enough.  Since I already assumed all other schools going the D-III route, where would you get more Pool B schools from to increase their numbers to 37 to earn a fourth berth? 

And I am surprised they have until the end of September to declare.  That should be done in advance of the season.
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Flying Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2009, 10:54:46 pm »

Well, the 2009 NCAA Division III Men's Soccer Championship Handbook has finally been made available and what follows is their numbers and calculations of the tournament field.  It's a little different from my numbers.  However, I have found many errors and inconsistencies in the handbook (more than most years, and there's always some) and in a subsequent post will list them and see if I still stand by my distribution of berths or the handbook's.  But here is what the handbook is saying for now.

Field: 59

Pool A (AQ): 39
Pool B: 3
Pool C: 17

Quote
2009 Division III Men’s Soccer Sponsorship Data:
Division III institutions sponsoring men's soccer: 404
Provisional institutions (not eligible for the championship): 13
Declared NAIA (not eligible for the NCAA championship): 2
Reclassifying institution (not eligible for the NCAA championship): 1
Institutions eligible for NCAA championship: 388
Conferences meeting automatic qualifying requirements: 39
Eligible teams in automatic-qualifying conferences (Pool A): 367
Eligible Pool B teams: 21
Access ratio: 1:9.41 (eligible teams in AQ conferences / # of AQ conferences)

Based on the sponsorship data, the following allocations will be implemented for the 2009 championship:
Bracket: 59 teams (based on 2008 eligible institutions (378) / 6.5)
Pool A: 39 teams
Pool B: 3 teams (# Pool B teams / Access ratio) 
Pool C: 17 teams (Field size - Pool A - Pool B)
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Flying Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2009, 07:24:37 am »

Well, despite all the discrepancies, inconsistencies, omissions, and errors that are to be found in the handbook, I do think that the one number that really matters, the number of Pool B berths, is correct as 3 . . . just barely.  I was short two Pool B schools in my breakdown in the opening post, and that resulted in a calculation of just 2 Pool B berths.  As it stands, if there are 28 Pool B schools as I think is the case, there are just enough to hold onto that third berth.  One less and it’d be down to two.

Anyway, let me run down what I found in the manual in this post and in the next one I will provide what I think is the correct breakdown of the D-III schools and calculation of the tournament field.


The following discrepancies exist between Appendix D and the summarized sponsorship data on page 13:

[1] Eligible teams in automatic-qualifying conferences (Pool A): pg. 13 - 367, App. D - 356

[2] Eligible Pool B teams: pg.13 - 21, App.D - 31

[3] Provisional institutions (not eligible for the championship): pg.13 - 13, App. D - 9

[4] Declared NAIA (not eligible for the NCAA championship): pg. 13 - 2, App. D - 1 (but App. D lists another one as NAIA declared, but summed as a Pool B eligible)

[5] Reclassifying institution (not eligible for the NCAA championship): pg. 13 - 1, App. D - 3

[6] The above discrepancies (#1 - #5) result in the following differences in sums:
Division III institutions sponsoring men's soccer: pg. 13 - 404, App. D - 400
Institutions eligible for NCAA championship: pg. 13 - 388, App. D - 387


[7] It appears that the page 13 sponsorship data summary is including the Upper Midwest Athletic Conference (UMAC) schools in the Pool A total as if the conference is an automatic-qualifying conference.  However, the conference only becomes an AQ conference next year, 2010/11, and the given total of 39 conferences meeting automatic qualifying requirements correctly does NOT include the UMAC.  This error might be the consequence of last year's handbook which erroneously noted in Appendix D that the UMAC becomes an AQ conference in 2009.


[8] The calculation of the 3 Pool B allocations shown on page 14 can only be accomplished by rounding up. 

Eligible Pool B teams/Access ratio = 21 / 9.41 = 2.23, Pool B allocations: 3 teams

This is a departure from prior practice in which the Pool B calculation was always rounded down (or truncated) to a whole number.  For example, take the information from the handbooks of the past 4 years.

2008: Eligible Pool B teams/Access ratio = 35 / 9.18 = 3.81, Pool B allocations: 3 teams
2007: Eligible Pool B teams/Access ratio = 41 / 9.05 = 4.53, Pool B allocations: 4 teams
2006: Eligible Pool B teams/Access ratio = 43 / 9.14 = 4.70, Pool B allocations: 4 teams
2005: Eligible Pool B teams/Access ratio = 43 / 9.06 = 4.75, Pool B allocations: 4 teams

The understood reason for rounding down was to never provide a greater access ratio to Pool B schools than Pool A schools, thus never providing the slightest incentive for a school to remain independent or a conference to remain below the eligibility standards for automatic-qualifying.


The following schools are missing from Appendix D and are not included in the given totals for their respective conferences or region's Pool B:

[9] SUNY-Morrisville should be listed in the East Region as a member of the North Eastern Athletic Conference (NEAC) and eligible for Pool A/C. (They competed they provisional membership last year.)  Update the total of NEAC Pool A/C schools in the East Region from 4 to 5.
 
[10] Berry College should be listed in the South Atlantic Region as an independent and as a provisional member not eligible for the tournament. (They are entering their first year of provisional membership.) Update total of South Atlantic Pool B provisional members not eligible for the tournament from 0 to 1.

[11] Covenant College should be listed in the South Atlantic Region as an independent and as a provisional member not eligible for the tournament. (They are entering their first year of provisional membership.) Update total of South Atlantic Pool B provisional members not eligible for the tournament from 1 (see #2 above) to 2.

[12] Howard Payne should be listed in the West Region as a member of the American Southwest Conference (ASC) and eligible for Pool A/C.  Update total of ASC Pool A/C schools in the West Region from 13 to 14.


The following schools are not properly classified in Appendix D:

[13] Spalding of the St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (SLIAC) is listed as a Pool A/C school, but is a provisional member not eligible for the tournament.  (They are entering their second year of provisional membership.) Update total of SLIAC Pool A/C schools in the Central Region from 9 to 8 and update the total of Pool B provisional members not eligible for the tournament from 0 to 1.

[14] North Central an independent in the North Region is listed as an eligible Pool B school, but is a provisional member not eligible for the tournament.  (They are entering their fourth and final year of provisional membership.) Update total of eligible Pool B schools in the North Region from 15 to 14 and update the total of Pool B provisional members not eligible for the tournament from 0 to 1.


Sources of current provisional members status used in items #9-#11, #13-#14: The NCAA News: Four schools achieve active DIII membership for 2009-10 (Aug 10, 2009)
Current NCAA Division III Provisional, Reclassifying and Exploratory Members



The following sums are in error in Appendix D:

[15] The North Region Pool B totals say there are 15 eligible schools. But the list of schools shows fourteen eligible schools and 1 declared NAIA.  Update total of eligible Pool B schools in the North Region from 14 (see #6 above) to 13, and update the total of NAIA declared from 0 to 1.


[16] The West Region Pool B totals say there are 3 eligible schools, 1 provisional member, 1 reclassifying school, and 1 declared NAIA.  That adds up to 6, but only 5 schools are listed and only two are eligible.  No school is missing that I can tell.  Update total of eligible Pool B schools in the West Region from 3 to 2.


[17] At the beginning of Appendix D it states that there are 395 total eligible teams.  I have no idea where this number comes from as it doesn’t jive with what follows in Appendix D or with what is on page 13 nor with any updated values based on the errors noted above.


[18]  Finally, and not necessarily an error, but I find it interesting that of three schools in the reclassification process from D-III to D-II, Lincoln (Pa.) and CSU-East Bay continue to be included as D-III soccer programs but ineligible for the tournament, while the Maryville (St. Louis) is no longer listed as being a D-III program at all.  Not sure if this was intended or and oversight/omission. Of course, it makes no difference as they are ineligible in any case.  I can only guess that maybe since Maryville has already become a full member of a D-II conference, they are out while the others who are not members of a D-II conference yet remain listed.

Lincoln (Pa.): in third and final year of process, is/was and independent in D-III, has remained an independent thru the process and will join the Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association (CIAA) next year (2010/11) when it is a fully active and eligible D-II program.
CSU-East Bay: in second year of process, is/was and independent in D-III, is a “scheduling partner” with the California Collegiate Athletic Association (CCAA) this season.  Not sure what the technical difference is between being a “scheduling partner” and a member, but they are listed in the conference standings.
Maryville (St. Louis): in second year of process, was a member of the D-III St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (SLIAC) last year (2008/09), its first year in the process, starting this year (2009/10) is a member of the D-II Great Lakes Valley Conference (GLVC).
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Flying Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2009, 07:32:03 am »

REGION-BY-REGION BREAKDOWN (update/correction of Appendix D)

New England Region:
  Pool A: 65 (CCC-14, GNC-10, LEAC-8, MSCAC-8, NESCAC-10, NEWMAC-7, NAC-7, UAA-1)
  Eligible Pool B: 8 (NECC-7, Maine-Presque Isle) 
  Provisional: 1 (Lyndon-NAC)
  Reclassifying: --
  Declared NAIA: --

East Region:
  Pool A: 55 (AMCC-3, CUNYAC-9, Empire8-8, Liberty-8, NEAC-5, SUNYAC-10, Skyline-10, UAA-2)
  Eligible Pool B: --
  Provisional: 1 (SUNY-Cobleskill-NEAC)
  Reclassifying: --
  Declared NAIA: --

Mid-Atlantic Region:
  Pool A: 44 (CSAC-9, Centennial-10, Commonwealth-8, Freedom-8, Landmark-8, NEAC- 1)
  Eligible Pool B: --
  Provisional: 3 (PSU-Abington-NEAC, PSU-Harrisburg-NEAC, Lancaster Bible-
independent)
  Reclassifying: 1 (Lincoln-->D2)
  Declared NAIA: --

South Atlantic Region:
  Pool A: 42 (CAC-9, NJAC-10, ODAC-11, SCAC-4, USA-South-7, UAA-1)
  Eligible Pool B: 5 (GSAC-4, Rust-independent) 
  Provisional: 2 (Berry-independent, Covenent-independent)
  Reclassifying: 1 (Birmingham Southern-SCAC<--D2)
  Declared NAIA: --

Great Lakes Region:
  Pool A: 47 (AMCC-7, HCAC-9, NCAC-10, OAC-10, Presidents'-7, SCAC-2, UAA-2)
  Eligible Pool B: --
  Provisional: 3 (Franciscan-AMCC, Geneva-Presidents', St. Vincent-Presidents')
  Reclassifying: --
  Declared NAIA: --

Central Region:
  Pool A: 39 (CCIW-8, MIAA-8, NAC-12, NEAC-1, SLIAC-8, UAA-2)
  Eligible Pool B: --
  Provisional: 1 (Spanding-SLIAC)
  Reclassifying: --
  Declared NAIA: --

North Region:
  Pool A: 30 (IIAC-9, MWC-10, MIAC-11) 
  Eligible Pool B: 13 (UMAC-7, WIAC-5, Neb. Wesleyan)
  Provisional: 1 (North Central-independent)
  Reclassifying: --
  Declared NAIA: 1 (Northland)

West Region:
  Pool A: 35 (ASC-14, SCIAC-8, NWC-8, SCAC-5)
  Eligible Pool B: 2 (UC-Santa Cruz, Chapman)
  Provisional: 1 (La Sierra)
  Reclassifying: 1 (CSU-East Bay)
  Declared NAIA: 1 (Menlo)


SUMMARY OF D-III PROGRAMS AND CALCULATION OF TOURNAMENT FIELD (update/correction of pages 13-14)

2009 Division III Men’s Soccer Sponsorship Data:
Division III institutions sponsoring men's soccer: 404
Provisional institutions (not eligible for the championship): 13
Declared NAIA (not eligible for the NCAA championship): 2
Reclassifying institution (not eligible for the NCAA championship): 3
Institutions eligible for NCAA championship: 386
Conferences meeting automatic qualifying requirements: 39
Eligible teams in automatic-qualifying conferences (Pool A): 358
Eligible Pool B teams: 28
Access ratio: 1:9.18 (eligible teams in AQ conferences / # of AQ conferences)

Based on the sponsorship data, the following allocations will be implemented for the 2009 championship:
Bracket: 59 teams (based on 2008 eligible institutions (384) / 6.5)
Pool A: 39 teams
Pool B: 3 teams (# Pool B teams / Access ratio = 28 / 9.18 = 3.05) 
Pool C: 17 teams (Field size - Pool A - Pool B)
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DIIIdad
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2009, 01:42:42 pm »

Thanks for the input FW.
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Jim Matson
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2009, 06:20:49 pm »

I agree.  Great posts, FW.
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2009, 01:18:48 pm »

Thanks for the input FW.

I agree.  Great posts, FW.
Echoing the accolades...

+1!  Great analysis and documentation!   Smiley



By the way (BTW), the bid allocation has been truncated rather than rounded up for as long as I can remember.
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Flying Weasel
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2009, 02:17:46 pm »

By the way (BTW), the bid allocation has been truncated rather than rounded up for as long as I can remember.
Yeah, I was very surprised to see what I found in the manual.  But I don't know if the calculation was actually incorrectly rounded up or if someone simply messed up the presentation of the totals that feed into the calculation.  I mean the number of errors and inconsistencies I found make it hard to know what might have been a typo or presentation error, and what is an actual error in their process and determination.  In other words, did they get lucky that the calculation of 3 Pool B berths was correct or was the actual determination based on more accurate information than that given in the manual.   You can always find error in the handbook, but I really think this was much worse than any other year in recent time.  Sad and embarrasing, really.  It's not really that complicated.
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Jim Matson
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2009, 12:18:09 am »

Maybe the Brazilian air is better for analysis? Wink
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