Author Topic: Mock Regional Rankings  (Read 28509 times)

Offline old scot

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #105 on: April 26, 2010, 08:03:27 pm »
RS
   Did you forget about Heidelberg in the Mid East? I have not followed regional wins, but the #8 ranked team in the country does not show up in top 8 of the mid east region ranking?

Offline RSSmith

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #106 on: April 26, 2010, 08:44:40 pm »
RS
   Did you forget about Heidelberg in the Mid East? I have not followed regional wins, but the #8 ranked team in the country does not show up in top 8 of the mid east region ranking?

Yes, indeed.  My bad.  I fixed it (thereby knocking Wooster down a peg).
« Last Edit: April 26, 2010, 08:46:39 pm by RSSmith »
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Offline d3baseballnut

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #107 on: April 26, 2010, 08:50:11 pm »
I guarantee you Kean is going to be high in the Mid-Atlantic.

Nevermind they have a representative on the regional committee, but their SOS is always good enough to give the committee an excuse to keep them high.

IN 2008, following the first regional ranking, Kean went 3-1 that week, and jumped from #6 to #2, hopping a JHU team that also went 3-1.

 If there is any possible way, Kean will be in the top 2 or 3 in the Mid-Atlantic this week.

Offline ECSUalum

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #108 on: April 26, 2010, 09:23:43 pm »
RSS,

GREAT WORK ON ABOVE!!!!

Offline RSSmith

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #109 on: April 26, 2010, 09:27:10 pm »
I guarantee you Kean is going to be high in the Mid-Atlantic.

Nevermind they have a representative on the regional committee, but their SOS is always good enough to give the committee an excuse to keep them high.

IN 2008, following the first regional ranking, Kean went 3-1 that week, and jumped from #6 to #2, hopping a JHU team that also went 3-1.

 If there is any possible way, Kean will be in the top 2 or 3 in the Mid-Atlantic this week.

Right you are.  For some reason (wishful thinking, maybe) I missed Kean in the spreadsheet.  I've fixed it.
A walk is never as good as a hit!

Offline ScotsFan

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #110 on: April 27, 2010, 10:30:11 am »
Nice work on those rankings RSS.  +k

RS
   Did you forget about Heidelberg in the Mid East? I have not followed regional wins, but the #8 ranked team in the country does not show up in top 8 of the mid east region ranking?

Yes, indeed.  My bad.  I fixed it (thereby knocking Wooster down a peg).

Only thing I would question is that Wooster has beaten Heide head to head so that should factor in when the real regional rankings are released I would think. 

Also, W&J's regional record is impressive, but how does their resume stack up vs. regionally ranked opponents?  I see they have wins over JCU and Allegheny, but that was way back in the first two games of the season.  The Presidents also lost to Marietta about a month ago.

Are the real NCAA Regional Rankings released tomorrow or is that not until next week?

Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #111 on: April 27, 2010, 11:27:26 am »
Are the real NCAA Regional Rankings released tomorrow or is that not until next week?

When does the 1st regional ranking come out. Last year the 1st one came out on April 23, 2009 I believe ?
According to the Handbook, April 29th.

Page 6

Offline RSSmith

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #112 on: April 27, 2010, 01:22:05 pm »
Nice work on those rankings RSS.  +k

RS
   Did you forget about Heidelberg in the Mid East? I have not followed regional wins, but the #8 ranked team in the country does not show up in top 8 of the mid east region ranking?

Yes, indeed.  My bad.  I fixed it (thereby knocking Wooster down a peg).

Only thing I would question is that Wooster has beaten Heide head to head so that should factor in when the real regional rankings are released I would think. 

Also, W&J's regional record is impressive, but how does their resume stack up vs. regionally ranked opponents?  I see they have wins over JCU and Allegheny, but that was way back in the first two games of the season.  The Presidents also lost to Marietta about a month ago.

Are the real NCAA Regional Rankings released tomorrow or is that not until next week?

You're exactly right.  There are other factors in crafting the regional rankings that I intentionally omitted because it made my brain hurt.  My chart considers only in-region w/l and sos, and it weighs them equally.  I did that because it was easy.
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Offline MIACLUV

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #113 on: April 28, 2010, 11:20:33 pm »
When are we gonna get the first look at the regional rankings?

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #114 on: April 28, 2010, 11:31:46 pm »
When are we gonna get the first look at the regional rankings?
It's in the  Handbook.

April 29th.   :)

I would guess about 3pm CDT.  Check the front page.  I would look in the Daily Dose Blog.

Offline ADL70

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #115 on: April 29, 2010, 07:07:51 pm »
Since Rochester competes in two  conferences but is only eligible for NCAA tournament play (no pool B bid) via the Liberty League is the UAA still in region?

Yep, agreed, that is the question at the heart of the matter.

Looks like Rochester's UAA games were counted in region.

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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #116 on: April 29, 2010, 10:24:21 pm »
Strictly on the basis of in-region won/loss percentage and strength of schedule (thanks to the d3baseball.com guys for the great data) and weighing each equally, here's what my computer tells me.  P.S. to Ralph, I see what you mean about the West Region SOS.


Central

1.  Webster (19-1, .456)            #5
2.  Buena Vista (18-8, .561)          #1
3.  North Central (IL) (18-5, .494)     #3
4.  St. Norbert (9-5, .577)                #2
5.  Central (20-6, .470)                Not ranked
6.  North Park (18-8, .515)       #6
7.  Carthage (11-8, .552)                    #4
8.  Coe (17-11, .515)                        Not ranked


Mid Atlantic

1.  Hopkins (29-1, .525)       #1
2.  Widener (16-5, .591)         #4
3.  Kean (20-6, .551)                #3
4.  FDU-Florham (24-5, .499)         #7
5.  Alvernia (25-8, .542)               #2
6.  Rowan (18-9, .558)                   #5
7.  Keystone (18-6, .498)                  #8
8.  Frostburg State (19-5, .463)         Not ranked
9.  DeSales (19-9, .535)                  #6
      Lebanon Valley                           #9

Mideast

1.  Washington & Jefferson (21-3, .537)    #1
2.  Heidleberg (23-6, .553)                       #2
3.  Wooster (27-6, .515)                         #4
4.  John Carroll (16-5, .543)                    #3
5.  Marietta (17-7, .565)                         #5
6.  Franklin (13-5, .527)                          #7
7.  Adrian (20-9, .544)                  #6
8.  Allegheny (19-8, .533)                       Not ranked
9.  Rose-Hulman (21-8, .496)                   Not ranked


Midwest
1.  UW-Whitewater (21-2, .515)       #1
2.  St. Scholastica (22-2, .518)         #3
3.  St. Thomas (20-4, .541)             #2
4.  UW-Stevens Point (17-6, .560)     #4
5.  Concordia (IL) (20-4, .494)           #5
6.  Bethany Lutheran (21-6, .443)    Not ranked
7.  Concordia (WI) (15-8, 528)                    Not ranked
8.  Concordia-Moorhead (16-9, .498)            Not ranked
    Edgewood    (16-10, 19-11) NATHC                                        #6

New England

1.  Tufts (13-2, .601)               #1
2.  Wheaton (23-6, .556)             #2
3.  Westfield State (23-7, .543)     #3
4.  Bates (15-4, .516)                 Not ranked
5.  WNEC (26-8, .527)                  #5
6.  Eastern Connecticut (18-7, .545)   #6
7.  Worcester State (24-7-1, .506)   Not ranked
8.  Curry (24-10, .539)                   #4
9.
10.

New York

1.  Cortland (22-3-1, .547)         #1
2.  Plattsburgh (18-7, .572)        #3
3.  Skidmore (18-5, .525)              #2
4.  Rochester (25-7, .522)            #4
5.  Oneonta (21-8, .556)              Not ranked   
6.  Brockport (15-8, .574)     Not ranked
7.  Ithaca (10-4, .516)                       Not ranked
8.  St. John Fisher (20-10, .541)        #5
      Staten Island                               #6


South

1.  Birmingham Southern (26-5, .524)  Re-classifying; ineligible
2.  Shenandoah (26-7, .525)                  #1
3.  Mary Washington (19-8, .532)             #2
4.  Methodist (23-10, .529)                    #4
5.  Salisbury (21-8, .509)                     Not ranked
6.  Millsaps (23-12, .532)             #3
7.  Huntingdon (20-11, .538)                    Not ranked
8.  York (PA) (23-12, .513)                      #6
     LaGrange                                          #5
West

1.  Chapman (20-4, .570)              #1
2.  Mississippi College (28-4, .474)   #4
3.  Pomona-Pitzer (26-6, .507)          #2
4.  Trinity (TX) (28-6, .476)             #5
5.  Linfield (25-7, .501)                  #3
6.  Texas-Tyler (26-9, .513)    Not ranked
7.  Redlands (22-8, .507)                  Not ranked
8.  Pacific Lutheran (23-7, .471)         #6

I have changed designated the number of teams that are ranked in each region, i.e., 15% of the region.

Look how close that RSSmith came to predicting the rankings exactly.

We don't have the other data points readily in front of us, but a serious student of the process just put out a great ranking!

IMHO, that is an incredible degree of transparency.  We now have the usual degree are argument about the #11-#15 Pool C bids.

+1!   :)
« Last Edit: April 29, 2010, 10:46:15 pm by Ralph Turner »

Offline Mr.Baseball

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #117 on: May 06, 2010, 09:21:00 pm »
Does not stand the MID ATLANTIC REGIONAL at all. Keystone is getting the Shaft i gues you could say in the regional rankings. This team made it to the regional final last year. Then you have Kean with 10 losses ranked 3rd?

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Mock Regional Rankings
« Reply #118 on: May 06, 2010, 10:10:39 pm »
Does not stand the MID ATLANTIC REGIONAL at all. Keystone is getting the Shaft i gues you could say in the regional rankings. This team made it to the regional final last year. Then you have Kean with 10 losses ranked 3rd?
Mr Baseball,  Welcome to the boards.

Wow, what an authoritative moniker that you are using!

The good thing about the D3boards is that it gives the very articulate, well-educated fans a forum to discuss our favorite teams.

I encourage you to give us your understanding of what the committee has not considered to give a higher regional ranking to Keystone, and what criteria boost Keystone to a higher ranking.

(Past performance is not a criterion.)

Here are the primary criteria from the Handbook...

Quote
Selection Criteria.

Primary criteria

The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA
championships); all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
- Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OWP).
- Opponents’ Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
• See Appendix B for explanation of OWP and OOWP calculations.
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results versus common regional opponents.
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.
• Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at any time of the rankings/
selection process.
• Conference postseason contests are included.
• Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth
years shall count in the primary criteria. Provisional and reclassifying members
shall remain ineligible for rankings and selection.

Weighted Scale. For a minimum of two championship seasons (2009-10 and 2010-
11), a weighted scale will apply. Once the OWP and OOWP are calculated, they are to
be combined on a weighted scale (e.g., 2/3 weight for OWP and 1/3 weight for OOWP)
and this combined number becomes the strength of schedule.

Post 18 is Appendix B from the Handbook.